Changes v Hawthorn

[praha 11,240]

11 hours ago, jumbo returns said:

Hawks are priming themselves to deliver a massacre.

They are as beatable as they have been in the past ten years that we've played them. IMO if we are disciplined and tight defensively as we were yesterday, we can stay with them. For as "frustrating" as yesterday was to watch, it was hard-fought and the pressure was intense. We worked out backsides off and that is telling for a side that normally loses those games (and almost did). The short turnaround will be tough but Hawthorn are vulnerable. I don't mean to understate their greatness but they are beatable.

 

[Bitter but optimistic 22,249]

11 hours ago, daisycutter said:

followed by debbie does romsey (it will just be a short)

 

11 hours ago, chook fowler said:

It'll be a flop

I'm confident it would stand proudly in the face of critical analysis !!!

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

1 hour ago, AngryAtCasey said:

Harmes went at 69.9% disposal efficiency. So that would be 7 out of 23 that weren't efficient. 

Sevens closer to 3 or 4 then 21....

I'd love if there was an "effective" disposal statistic somehow.

For example, a handpass to a teammate two metres away may add to the "efficiency" statistic but when the player who receives the ball is tackled by an opponent right next to them before they have a chance to dispose of the ball it is not effective.

Edited July 31, 2016 by Clint Bizkit

[watchtheeyes 1,422]

If Hogan doesn't get up I love the idea of Spencer, I hadn't even considered it until I saw it mentioned here. We will need Watts around the forward 50 if we're to kick a winning score while not attracting two defenders every time.

I love Harmes, but Salem has to replace him or if he's not there yet then Michie. Think Wagner needs to come out as well, Bugg probably for him.

And I'd consider Kennedy again to buzz around the feet of Gawn/Spencer when they're forward, but unsure who to take out. Garlett maybe, but you just never know if he'll turn it on.

Out: Hogan, Harmes, Wagner, ? (maybe Garlett)

In: Spencer, Salem/Michie, Bugg, Kennedy

[jackaub 1,402]

Carlton tagged Mitchell kept him to 22 

Who is our best tagger Viney? Bugg I think we must do it>

[DemonWA 3,936]

Out: Garlett, Wagner, M. Jones

In: Terlich, Grimes, Trengove

I kid, the Terlich call is a troll, I'd bring in Grimes, Trengove and Oliver

If Hogan is injured I'd being in Pedo not Weed.

 

[stuie 7,374]

8 hours ago, rjay said:

Cam Pedersen 1 goal 4 behinds 21 disposals 11 kicks 10 handballs 7 marks 13 tackles 16 hit outs 153 dream team points

Not a bad game I would have thought...will be pushing for selection this week.

Rubbish opposition though. Did you see everyone else's stats? Terlich kicked 3, want to bring him in? Grimes 39 touches, him too? Newton 34, Michie 30 and 2 goals... Will be some pretty ordinary ins next week if we're just going by stats.

 

 

[CBDees 3,167]

5 minutes ago, DemonWA said:

Out: Garlett, Wagner, M. Jones

In: Terlich, Grimes, Trengove

I kid, the Terlich call is a troll, I'd bring in Grimes, Trengove and Oliver

If Hogan is injured I'd being in Pedo not Weed.

 

Don't mind your (revised) selections however I would have Kennedy in lieu of Grimes if we are to replace Garlett.

[DemonLad5 1,642]

IN: Kennedy, Grimes, Oliver, Pederson, Trengove, Terlich

OUT: Vince, Hogan (if injured), Garlett, Wagner, 2 unlucky players (perhaps Harmes and Matt Jones)

Season over so give some blokes a chance to get some confidence for next year

Give Grimes, Pederson, Trengove, Terlich chances to save their careers or possibly give them trade value

If Hoges gets up then Pedo won't come in

Terls up forward, Grimes and Trenners off half back.

Those calling Harmes to be dropped, that courageous mark + 23 touches. You'd be extremely stiff to get chopped 

[rjay 25,094]

23 minutes ago, stuie said:

Rubbish opposition though. Did you see everyone else's stats? Terlich kicked 3, want to bring him in? Grimes 39 touches, him too? Newton 34, Michie 30 and 2 goals... Will be some pretty ordinary ins next week if we're just going by stats.

 

 

Yep, rubbish oppo but they did have a very good ruckman.

Not sure if you watched the game at all but I was surprised by Pedders desperation to tackle and to get involved around the packs, putting his body in to open up the game for our smaller players.

Numerous times I thought it was someone else, I hadn't seen this from him before. Playing for his career now.

So no not going just by stats also not going by the bests as was the post I was answering.

Edited July 31, 2016 by rjay

[DemonLad5 1,642]

Give Weed another game or 2 to show that standard and blood him late in the season

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,909]

16 hours ago, demon heart said:

oscar mcdonald. turn over king

frost. turn over queen. carnt kick.

wagner. turn over prince. misses easy targets

tom mcdonald. turn over princess. no nouse

 

surly dunn, garland, pedoson and grimes arnt all behind these guys. coaching staff have put a line through there names next year.

Might explain why he's not in the team.

13 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

ins. Newton Kennedy Garland Grimes Michie Pedersen Oliver

outs. Wagner O.mcd Dawes Garlett m.jones hunt vince (inj)

jetta t.mcd garland

grimes frost michie

Harmes Viney stretch

Kent Pedersen Petraccccccccca

Kennedy Hogan Watts

Gawn Tyson N.Jones

Oliver Newton Brayshaw Vandenburg

Todays team was poor. 7 changes demonstrates how sub standard the performance was.

Seven changes after a win? It might have been an ugly win, possibly the ugliest I've ever seen, but really...

 

If Hogan doesn't get up (and I suspect he will play), I'd bring in Spencer. If Hawthorn play Ceglar and McEvoy, I'd be thinking of playing Spencer anyway. It wasn't Dawes' worst perfromance, but if Spencer comes in and Hogan plays, then Dawes has to go.

Garlett looked completely out of sorts.  Kennedy should be rewarded.

If Salem is ready, he should come in for Wagner who I like but seems to be struggling to keep up. Unless Vince is injured, in which case Salem  for Vince.    

 

[stuie 7,374]

6 minutes ago, rjay said:

Yep, rubbish oppo but they did have a very good ruckman.

Not sure if you watched the game at all but I was surprised by Pedders desperation to tackle and to get involved around the packs, putting his body in to open up the game for our smaller players.

Numerous times I thought it was someone else, I hadn't seen this from him before. Playing for his career now.

So no not going just by stats also not going by the bests as was the post I was answering.

Yeah saw it, and have been impressed by Pedo this year for the most part. I think that few weeks out would have added to his desperation to try and win another contract. Definitely a flip of the coin between him and Dawes for next year at this stage, so will be interesting to see if one of them can really push ahead of the other.

Personally I think Dawes has done enough the last 2 weeks to get another game and Pedo probably needs one more VFL game before being considered given his extended time out.

 

[rjay 25,094]

14 minutes ago, stuie said:

Yeah saw it, and have been impressed by Pedo this year for the most part. I think that few weeks out would have added to his desperation to try and win another contract. Definitely a flip of the coin between him and Dawes for next year at this stage, so will be interesting to see if one of them can really push ahead of the other.

Personally I think Dawes has done enough the last 2 weeks to get another game and Pedo probably needs one more VFL game before being considered given his extended time out.

 

Not a Dawes fan but thought he was ok last week but pretty poor yesterday. Wasn't on his own there I guess.

Dawes will be a real liability against the Hawks who will run off him too easily...

[chook fowler 19,565]

1 hour ago, Bitter but optimistic said:

 

I'm confident it would stand proudly in the face of critical analysis !!!

I wouldn't hang my hat on that

[jumbo returns 6,741]

1 hour ago, praha said:

They are as beatable as they have been in the past ten years that we've played them. IMO if we are disciplined and tight defensively as we were yesterday, we can stay with them. For as "frustrating" as yesterday was to watch, it was hard-fought and the pressure was intense. We worked out backsides off and that is telling for a side that normally loses those games (and almost did). The short turnaround will be tough but Hawthorn are vulnerable. I don't mean to understate their greatness but they are beatable.

 

Strange film....must say, not my fave.

Yep, I agree with your synopsis about pressure and contested ball, but, in the end, they will make less mistakes than us and get cheap goals.

Superior skills and more onfield leadership.

[stuie 7,374]

6 minutes ago, rjay said:

Not a Dawes fan but thought he was ok last week but pretty poor yesterday. Wasn't on his own there I guess.

Dawes will be a real liability against the Hawks who will run off him too easily...

Dawes has a batter tank than Pedo, even more so currently given Pedo was out for a few weeks. Neither player is ideal, but that's the choice we have right now.

Thought Dawes was ok but not great yesterday. Took a few grabs, kicked a goal, tackled.

 

[Macca 17,035]

1 hour ago, Clint Bizkit said:

I'd love if there was an "effective" disposal statistic somehow.

For example, a handpass to a teammate two metres away may add to the "efficiency" statistic but when the player who receives the ball is tackled by an opponent right next to them before they have a chance to dispose of the ball it is not effective.

There's that and a few other factors like the pressure that a player may or may not be under when disposing of the ball or the options that a particular player may have who has the ball in hand. 

A hurried kick forward can be invaluable or not valuable  depending on all sorts of factors ... that hurried kick forward is highly dependent on our players playing in front of their opponents  I often prefer the hurried kick forward as opposed to handpassing to a player who is in turn going to be under pressure but not always - sometimes the ball ends up being 'released' from that initial handpass. 

The other issue is we often don't run hard enough to position ... for instance, Vince wasn't presented with enough options in the dying seconds of yesterday's game.  Switching the play is often a poor percentage play in those circumstances so he had to go down the line where he was seemingly presented with just the one option.  Not running hard to position is related to our ability to 'spread'

The best players take the best options and then use the ball well - that's what makes them the best players.  It's a 'captain obvious' comment but the reason a number of our players make poor decisions is that they're simply not good enough footballers.  It's why we end up having to turn the list over more than the better teams.

 

[Adam The God 30,423]

3 hours ago, AngryAtCasey said:

Harmes went at 69.9% disposal efficiency. So that would be 7 out of 23 that weren't efficient. 

Sevens closer to 3 or 4 then 21....

DE stat is a rubbish indicator. He only has to handball to a team mate under pressure for that to be an effective possession.

[stuie 7,374]

Just now, AdamFphlebeb said:

DE stat is a rubbish indicator. He only has to handball to a team mate under pressure for that to be an effective possession.

Plus if you kick it to a 2 on 1 where your team has the numbers but the defender wins the ball it counts as an effective disposal...

Most useless stat there is.

 

[Fat Tony 5,276]

Dawes, Harmes and Garlett were poor yesterday and should be omitted.

Oliver and Kennedy looked the best players for Casey in the half I saw. And it will be beneficial for the long term to give an in form Weideman a taste at AFL level.

Garlett gets a reprieve if Hogan doesn't get up. (I actually prefer the team balance when we go smaller in the forward line.)

[stevethemanjordan 6,952]

Don't tell Sat-man DE is rubbish.

It's the only evidence he has to backup his claims that McKenzie can kick.

[SPC 3,552]

Not too sure whether we really have anyone banging on the selectors door, but here are my likely changes..

OUT: Garlett, Vince, Harmes, Hogan (if injured)

IN: Kennedy, Newton, Pederson & Oliver

 

Garlett, is so out of form is it hard to see him as the same bloke who was a jet the first few rounds.. Kennedy to take his role

Vince, just needs to go back and capture some form.. he is a leader and not doing his role well enough, Oliver to cover him

Harmes out for poor disposal over and over again, Newton to come in for him

Hogan, should be rested- doing a lot of work up the ground, but not effective where we need him.. His price is dropping by the week, and I am starting to feel he may be slightly over rated, especially when looking at the GCS young forwards.. Pedo to come in for him.

 

[Macca 17,035]

And an ineffective disposal is not necessarily the fault of the player who kicked the ball - although it might be.  Our eyes tell us the true story - the stats can be used to strengthen or weaken an argument - for the same act or acts

As an example - we won the clearances yesterday but we should have had a bigger advantage in numbers considering how dominant Gawn was in the ruck ... on top of that our clearances were sloppy and weren't clean enough.

Viney,  N Jones & Vince were all down on form whilst Tyson had a decent game.  All 4 players have often all played well in the same game - if we're looking for a reason why we scrambled around yesterday, that's probably the main reason.

[ArtificialWisdom 4,045]

1 hour ago, stuie said:

Dawes has a batter tank than Pedo, even more so currently given Pedo was out for a few weeks. Neither player is ideal, but that's the choice we have right now.

Thought Dawes was ok but not great yesterday. Took a few grabs, kicked a goal, tackled.

 

My thoughts too was not fantastic but taking off my "I hate Dawes" goggles for 5 minutes for a more objective look, he was servicable played his role well enough..

Changes id like to see, but I suspect they wont happen not many played particularly bad compared to anyone else. Not saying they played well just nobody was noticably that much worse. I would expect anyone who played yesterday to bounce back next week.
 
Out:
Hogan (injured, no need to force him up on the short break, 1 week off could be good for him)
Vince (something isnt quite right, injury or just form i dont know. Senior player though doubt he will actually go)
Garlett (Needs to earn it again but could get a pass due to need, he will always struggle with yesterday's poor delivery)

In: 
Pederson (Need marking replacement for Hoges)
Oliver (if deemed ready, if not ANB)
Kennedy (lives on the cusp of selection and if Garlett goes he is the logical repacement)


Have to admit droping Vince ahead of such a tough oppo could be foolish, but im not sure he can continue to play when so out of form. I'd also like to add maybe 2 more Watts'. 1 on the wing one loose down back and the current one up forward if we had 3 of him yesterday would have been a comfortable win. Watched the last 2 minutes and noticed he even had to tell Vince where to lead to in the dying stages right before Vince beautifully hit up Lynch i50 in space.