Saturday Talking Point: How far can we improve in 2016?

[Deecisive 1,652]

This years draft has given us some excellent quality to work with, some of which we should see later in the year. Petracaa will be a significant upgrade on Jimmy T, who while skilled just could not pull it together for us, did not accumulate possessions and did not always dispose of the ball well.  Frost will add a lot more depth to our forward line and MacO Jnr will help bolster our defence. Players like Grimes, Lumumba, Matty Jones, need to lift their game to keep their spot, if they can do that then that will be a significant improvement over last years form, if not we have players waiting in the wings to do so. Hullet looks to also give us another option forward where in the last year if Dawes was not there we were looking for Pederson and when he was not available we had to take backs to cover.  And if Max can stay fit all year that will be a significant bonus and give our mids more first use of the ball. 

We have a much better team this year more mature, hopefully fitter, and more attacking game plan.  Yet that by itself does not win games, as we saw last year in some of the games we won and lost. We won against sides that had much better teams, balance, attack capability etc... the difference is that their disposal was usually worse than ours which resulted in them turning the ball over or kicking points instead of goal.

[Deecisive 1,652]

7 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

I must be on my own thinking Howe will be a bad loss.

i think we'll miss his intercept marking and mostly good disposal from defence. He was/is a better defender than forward but I think everyone remembers his laziness as a forward rather than his effectiveness as a defender.  

Howe's better games for the MFC were as a defender.

Howe's intercepting marks will be missed, but his sometime poor disposal after such a mark will be certainly be appreciated a lot more when we play the pies. Cross probably took more intercept marks than Howe across the backline and added a lot more once the ball hit the ground. But that is a lot easier when your the spare man floating around in the backline.  My concern with Howe is that he went missing a lot for someone with the potential he had.

[Gator 16,893]

Unlike others, I don't overly worry about the draw, because we have no idea who'll be an easy or hard opponent.  The Dogs went from 7 to 14, while the Suns slid down the ladder.  Port didn't meet expectations.  Most of all, I don't rate many teams.  Nearly half the competition plays finals.  Ordinary sides play finals.  While we haven't beaten the likes of North or Sydney in years they don't overly concern me as opposition.  When we take the next step we will beat sides that have previously had the wood on us.  Footscray beat North and Sydney and the year before lost to both.  Things change...

Why we can be better:

Viney missed 6 games with a fracture in his leg and still came runner up in the B&F. Has taken his game and fitness to a new level this preseason as he seems to have been freed up from a "run with" role

Gawn missed 9 matches after debuting in round 10. He's been one of the preseason standouts after a terrific second half of 2015

Dom Tyson played 90% of the year with a medial strain and hamstring issues - missed 7 games. Has been outstanding in match sims

Dean Kent (rated incredibly highly inside the club) only played 4 games due to a hamstring off the bone

Mature age rookie Aaron vandenBerg missed 8 games through injury and looks in peak condition this off season

Salem was a revelation in the first 7 games before getting injured and only playing 10 for the season

Nathan Jones carried a neck injury all year and was below his best

Petracca will debut as a 20 year old with a huge body and injury free will impact games of footy

Angus Brayshaw was the sub many times and wasn't quite the same player after getting concussed in the first 5 minutes of the West Coast match - expect improvement

Frost gives us athleticism and flexibility in attack and defence - only played 3 games last year

Naturally, we can't rely on him, but I expect (hope) Jack Trengove to make a successful return to footy, which continues to add depth

Hogan will kick 60 goals this year

Our transition and ball movement is much quicker than previous preseasons - will it hold up under the pressure of AFL.  David King expects us to win "5 or 6", because he doesn't rate our style of play

Keys:

Luck with injury.  We need our best players playing.  Other teams have luck with injuries and it's about time we did

Ball movement.  If we're slow and hesitant we won't rise up the ladder

Goals - we need to get midfielders kicking goals, as well as support for Hogan and Garlet..  Can Watts kick 30, Gawn 15, Kent 20, Petracca 20...  The Dogs had 8 players kick 15 or more and we had 2.  They also had 2 players kick 50+

In 2014, Port had 9 players kick 15 or more with 3 kicking 40+ 

If we don't spread the goal kickers we won't rise up the ladder

All things considered I expect 9-10 wins, but if all goes well and the players/club get belief I believe we have the capacity to exceed those expectations

It's time

[monoccular 16,071]

On 12 February 2016 at 10:10 AM, Deeoldfart said:

Even in my worst nightmares that doesn't happen!  Unless we have a hellish run with injuries, I am very confident we will finish with somewhere between 9 and 12 wins for the season, and the bookies will be far more positive about our prospects for 2017 and beyond.

I  for one don't give a stuff about bookies (other than the fact that, being married to the ALF administration, they are running and ruining our game all sports)

Edited February 13, 2016 by monoccular
additional gripe

[Redleg 37,598]

4 minutes ago, ProDee said:

 

Luck with injury.  

Number 1.

[jnrmac 18,967]

Interesting vote in the AGE about who will have a breakout year. Angus Brayshaw the standout leader followed by Zach Merret.

 

[Satyriconhome 9,982]

"Unlike others, I don't overly worry about the draw, because we have no idea who'll be an easy or hard opponent.  The Dogs went from 7 to 14, while the Suns slid down the ladder.  Port didn't meet expectations"

Totally agree, I personally think Hawthorn are getting close to hitting the wall, especially with Roughead going down, their core is getting older without the younger players being given the opportunity to get experience, the older players are still great players but they will be coming up against younger players who are bigger, stronger and faster, and if they pick up a slight injury it will take longer to get it right

Goals will come from Kent, vandenBerg, Harmes, JKH and the midfielders, they will have to, to keep their place in the team

[Lil_red_fire_engine 10,181]

Its hard to argue who will go backwards on form from our list. Vince maybe, based on age and reduced preseason but all others you would expect to hold or improve consistency in form. Most believe we were held back by our game plan, it is obvious by track watcher reports this has been addressed over the pre-season with a better balance. For me it will come down to injuries, dont underestimate the improvement we would have if Jones and Tyson play fit and Kent, Viney and Salem play full seasons. If Hogan, Gawn or T-Mac went down though it would cancel the above. I think the thing I can see is we won't go backwards. I would not be surprised if we held position whilst we embedded a more attacking style and the upswing came in 2016.  However if the right group stay on the park for the year and we get some early wins and confidence pushing for the eight is not out of the question.

[Satyriconhome 9,982]

11 minutes ago, big_red_fire_engine said:

Its hard to argue who will go backwards on form from our list. Vince maybe, based on age and reduced preseason but all others you would expect to hold or improve consistency in form. Most believe we were held back by our game plan, it is obvious by track watcher reports this has been addressed over the pre-season with a better balance. For me it will come down to injuries, dont underestimate the improvement we would have if Jones and Tyson play fit and Kent, Viney and Salem play full seasons. If Hogan, Gawn or T-Mac went down though it would cancel the above. I think the thing I can see is we won't go backwards. I would not be surprised if we held position whilst we embedded a more attacking style and the upswing came in 2016.  However if the right group stay on the park for the year and we get some early wins and confidence pushing for the eight is not out of the question.

Bernie would get a good laugh out of that, I had a go at him at training on Friday, told him he was in rehab when I last got to training before Xmas, said with his history of hamstring issues, they are working on strengthening them (even at his age), the broken finger didn't help, said he knows every blade of grass personally around the perimeter of Goschs reckons he has run on every one of them, said he is feeling even fitter than last year, and a total believer in the program he is on

Dom Tyson was bitterly disappointed with his output last year, has worked his arse off at training, increased his size and strength as well, looking at repaying the supporters

As for Kent   if he can play like his training wow

 

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

3 hours ago, The Third Eye said:

Leaving aside the messenger, I want to know if people think Robbo has it right.

His point is that irrespective of the personnel, the improvement in the list, the greater depth and whether or not we have luck with injury, he believes we can't improve enough to make the eight because Rossy's game plan is far too negative.

 

No. For a start, his premise that we are too defensive is not remotely aligned to what all the players and coaching staff have reported about this preseason's focus, which has been adding an attacking dimension to the game plan.

Second, many of our better players now have now had another year under the system and with each other.

Assuming a good run with injuries, I simply cannot see how we will not improve this year. Potentially dramatically.

"Robbo" is not someone you should be listening to. On this issue in particular.

 

[daisycutter 28,528]

1 hour ago, Satyriconhome said:

I think Bugg was brought in to replace Cross, played a similar role for the Giants, of course needs to get into the team

Agree with Kennedy, perfect bench player for me now the sub role has gone, can play on wing, midfield or as a small forward

saty, with the sub gone i don't think there is any such thing any more as a bench player. just 22 players all of who get a rest on the bench at some time. you don't pick a bench player any more just the best 22 according to positional requirements. it's fairly common to see one or more key players on the bench now at the start of a quarter. of course during a game if one player is having a bad day he is likely to spend more time on the bench but with an average of <1 rotation per quarter per player this will likely only be minor. younger players with few games may spend longer on the bench, but overall there is not much scope for any player to monopolise the bench unless injured

[Satyriconhome 9,982]

Just a note on Lumumba, had a chat to him at training, another one who felt he let himself, teammates and supporters down last year, ankle issues just wouldn't settle, nearly back, issue totally fixed, although we compared how far we could turn our feet to 90 deg. just wants to get back in full training

[Satyriconhome 9,982]

5 minutes ago, daisycutter said:

saty, with the sub gone i don't think there is any such thing any more as a bench player. just 22 players all of who get a rest on the bench at some time. you don't pick a bench player any more just the best 22 according to positional requirements. it's fairly common to see one or more key players on the bench now at the start of a quarter. of course during a game if one player is having a bad day he is likely to spend more time on the bench but with an average of <1 rotation per quarter per player this will likely only be minor. younger players with few games may spend longer on the bench, but overall there is not much scope for any player to monopolise the bench unless injured

What I meant was you could have 18 in their positions on the field at the start and 4 on the bench who can cover a few positions, Kennedy being one of those, I see the point you make

Edited February 14, 2016 by Satyriconhome

[Satyriconhome 9,982]

7 minutes ago, Ron Burgundy said:

No. For a start, his premise that we are too defensive is not remotely aligned to what all the players and coaching staff have reported about this preseason's focus, which has been adding an attacking dimension to the game plan.

Second, many of our better players now have now had another year under the system and with each other.

Assuming a good run with injuries, I simply cannot see how we will not improve this year. Potentially dramatically.

"Robbo" is not someone you should be listening to. On this issue in particular.

 

Amen to that Ron        I am expecting us to surprise a little bit

[Damo 2,994]

The biggest worries are Hogan - we expect too much and he has no good tall support.

Watts Dawes and Pedo are incapable of helping him much and if Hogan is injured, they are not likely to step up.

Small forwards - I worry about Jeff, although he has had a couple of good years. I have no reason to trust Kent yet.

If we are giving games to Grimes, Heretier or Watts, we will not be very good as they dont contribute anywhere near enough

I pick 8 wins.

I do however like the big Spanner. I think Spencer will get chances and take them.

Edited February 14, 2016 by Franky_31

[dee-luded 2,958]

3 hours ago, The Third Eye said:

Leaving aside the messenger, I want to know if people think Robbo has it right.

His point is that irrespective of the personnel, the improvement in the list, the greater depth and whether or not we have luck with injury, he believes we can't improve enough to make the eight because Rossy's game plan is far too negative.

 

he doesn't know Roosy's game plan,  other than that of Roos'y improving the list thru draft spots & to bring in players who can.   And developing our existing young players into better footballers, starting with the non-negiotiable defensive side of (responsible) playing.

so as Roos'y taught us to run hard & to get to the right spots to defend,  we are becoming tougher to play against,  & we now have more young talent on our list for the coaches to really develop.

 

robbo doesn't have a leg to (can't) stand on,  re his appraisal of Roos.

 

 

[CBDees 3,162]

2 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

I must be on my own thinking Howe will be a bad loss.

i think we'll miss his intercept marking and mostly good disposal from defence. He was/is a better defender than forward but I think everyone remembers his laziness as a forward rather than his effectiveness as a defender.  

Howe's better games for the MFC were as a defender.

Collingwood plan to use him up forward.

[sydneydee 647]

39 minutes ago, Satyriconhome said:

Just a note on Lumumba, had a chat to him at training, another one who felt he let himself, teammates and supporters down last year, ankle issues just wouldn't settle, nearly back, issue totally fixed, although we compared how far we could turn our feet to 90 deg. just wants to get back in full training

Hi Saty, any idea on which round Lumumba is aiming to return? With Melksham out for the year I think it is important that a few of he senior players that didn't contribute much last year really step up.

Oliver appears to be doing a lot of running in the training reports. Is this injury related or are they managing work loads with his OP last year. I was originally hoping for an early debut however this doesn't seem likely now 

thanks 

[daisycutter 28,528]

3 minutes ago, CBDees said:

Collingwood plan to use him up forward.

and i look forward to watching cloke, elliot and howe colliding in mid air. it might even make the air crash investigations show on tv

[dazzledavey36 48,751]

25 minutes ago, Franky_31 said:

The biggest worries are Hogan - we expect too much and he has no good tall support.

Watts Dawes and Pedo are incapable of helping him much and if Hogan is injured, they are not likely to step up.

Small forwards - I worry about Jeff, although he has had a couple of good years. I have no reason to trust Kent yet.

If we are giving games to Grimes, Heretier or Watts, we will not be very good as they dont contribute anywhere near enough

I pick 8 wins.

I do however like the big Spanner. I think Spencer will get chances and take them.

I know that Lumumba has missed a fair chunck of pre season but i think your underestimating his value. We all seem to forget that his All Australian year he was one of the best running half backs in the game. I think it took him a while to adjust to our defensive game whereas this year i expect to get back to his best with our new free flowing game style.

Lumumba still has a big role to play for us.

[Satyriconhome 9,982]

1 minute ago, sydneydee said:

Hi Saty, any idea on which round Lumumba is aiming to return? With Melksham out for the year I think it is important that a few of he senior players that didn't contribute much last year really step up.

Oliver appears to be doing a lot of running in the training reports. Is this injury related or are they managing work loads with his OP last year. I was originally hoping for an early debut however this doesn't seem likely now 

thanks 

HL  didn't put a time frame on return,  he is back running and has been doing heaps of indoor work, looks super fit body wise, can't see him being too far away, needs to test the ankles with twisting and turning etc though

Spoke to Alex S who is head rehab guy, got a bit of a straight bat about Oliver 'is a young guy, making sure we don't break him, no real issues', he did a heap of work in rehab

[Sir Why You Little 34,459]

16 minutes ago, daisycutter said:

and i look forward to watching cloke, elliot and howe colliding in mid air. it might even make the air crash investigations show on tv

Hahaha imagine 3 Stretchers out there at the one time picking up the Filth Fwd Line....

[dee-luded 2,958]

11 minutes ago, Satyriconhome said:

HL  didn't put a time frame on return,  he is back running and has been doing heaps of indoor work, looks super fit body wise, can't see him being too far away, needs to test the ankles with twisting and turning etc though

Spoke to Alex S who is head rehab guy, got a bit of a straight bat about Oliver 'is a young guy, making sure we don't break him, no real issues', he did a heap of work in rehab

so glad the new regime is taking its time with young players,  making sure they are ready physically, & mentally,  before they get games.

[Slartibartfast 15,769]

1 hour ago, Satyriconhome said:

Just a note on Lumumba, had a chat to him at training, another one who felt he let himself, teammates and supporters down last year, ankle issues just wouldn't settle, nearly back, issue totally fixed, although we compared how far we could turn our feet to 90 deg. just wants to get back in full training

Lumumba is a flashy player.  He runs like the Roadrunner, if a fantastic physical specimen and of course is easily identifiable meaning we notice everything he does with the ball.

I became very disenchanted with him well before most last year. He failed to get the ball 15 times about 10 times last year and only got more than 20 possessions 3 times.  He just found it very difficult to get involved in the play.  I went off him early when I saw him "misjudge" a lot of overhead marks - he found himself under the ball and unable to impact he contest on numerous occasions.  I saw him play lazy defensive footy often not involving himself in the play when it was in his area.  He had little if any sense of urgency. His decision making is very ordinary and his vision is poor.  My personal opinion is he makes Jack Watts look like Glenn Archer.

I'm very aware that when you get negative on a player you see all the poor things the player does but even taking this into account his season last year was unacceptable for a senior footballer brought into the club to be a leader.  Having said that I watched the first quarter of the Suns game again recently and saw a bit to like so I'm open minded on him this season but he needs to do some hard things and he needs to show courage in the air.  He's very good one on one when the ball is on the ground and he has the playing style to lift his team mates.  But if he plays anywhere near the standard he showed last year he should be at Casey because given a fit list he's not in my top 30 at the moment.

[Coq au vin 754]

On 12 February 2016 at 7:36 AM, Whispering_Jack said:

At this time of year there's always speculation about how the various AFL clubs will fare in the season to come. Will they climb the ladder or go into decline? 

Earlier in the week, I was listening to a discussion on SEN between Mark Robinson (yes ... I know) and Andy Maher on this very topic and, in relation to Melbourne, Robbo said he doubted whether we would see very much improvement in the Demons this year, if at all.

 

Despite the progression of wins in recent seasons from 2 to 4 to 7, Robbo was unconvinced that the club would remain on an upward trajectory - not even if someone like Jesse Hogan or one or more of the many other players recently introduced into the line up had stand out seasons.

 

The reason he gave was that he was unimpressed by the defensive style of play under Paul Roos.

 

I think he might have misunderstood the basis of Roos' thinking and underestimated the recent work, particularly in this preseason of coach-in-waiting Simon Goodwin.

 

I remain always the eternal optimist (at this time of year at least) and I can easily see us with a 50/50 record or better in 2016 which would place us on the cusp of a finals appearance. The Bulldogs went from 7 wins in 2014 to 14 in 2015.

 

Is there any reason why the Demons can't come close to achieving the same?

Yes. We don't have the cattle.