Saturday Talking Point: How far can we improve in 2016?

[Coq au vin 754]

18 hours ago, ENYAW said:

dellusional demon 82,simple solution for the dees to be a success…….. change the name to leceister city !!!! then put a squillion dollars on them,win then buy Greece or Portugal or Iceland. More to a serious note we need WATTS or his future replacement (Hulett or new King) to have a breakout year.White needs to be a success ASAP,this will give us more versatility up front.Not sure if Pedo can hold down CHF.May have to consider Hogan at CHF much more reliable. Petracca and or Oliver need to make an impact.A back up ruckman who can play forward is a must. Pedo at 193 cm is a bit short for ruckwork. We should end up winning 10 matches which would put us in 10th or 11th position.Another good year of trade is required for us to be a regular finals side.

Correct. We don't have the cattle. Yet.

[Coq au vin 754]

1 hour ago, Satyriconhome said:

HL  didn't put a time frame on return,  he is back running and has been doing heaps of indoor work, looks super fit body wise, can't see him being too far away, needs to test the ankles with twisting and turning etc though

Spoke to Alex S who is head rehab guy, got a bit of a straight bat about Oliver 'is a young guy, making sure we don't break him, no real issues', he did a heap of work in rehab

Time frame or walking frame?

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

6 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

I wouldn't be surprised if we only win 3-5 games.

Biggest pessimist here.

[Satyriconhome 9,993]

2 minutes ago, Clint Bizkit said:

Biggest pessimist here.

A big call there Clint

[DubDee 21,065]

I think we need to stop using injuries as an excuse or a reason we will improve. Several teams had a worse run last year like WC, lions, Suns, pies. Aside from Viney none of our top 5-7 players were injured eg vince jones t Mac. Injuries happen every year and although we had a fair few injuries we need to be able to cope with this. 

Like it or not we will have 5 or 6 injuries at most times from round 1 as it is the nature of the game. 

[Bombay Airconditioning 5,945]

15 minutes ago, DubDee said:

I think we need to stop using injuries as an excuse or a reason we will improve. Several teams had a worse run last year like WC, lions, Suns, pies. Aside from Viney none of our top 5-7 players were injured eg vince jones t Mac. Injuries happen every year and although we had a fair few injuries we need to be able to cope with this. 

Like it or not we will have 5 or 6 injuries at most times from round 1 as it is the nature of the game. 

I agree, can we add to that 

- debuted too early

- poorly developed (Roos now in his third year)

- we played them after returning from interstate trip

- games at Etihad

- hasn't found his position yet

- the added burden of the captaincy

 

 

[Deecisive 1,658]

5 hours ago, big_red_fire_engine said:

Its hard to argue who will go backwards on form from our list. Vince maybe, based on age and reduced preseason but all others you would expect to hold or improve consistency in form. Most believe we were held back by our game plan, it is obvious by track watcher reports this has been addressed over the pre-season with a better balance. For me it will come down to injuries, dont underestimate the improvement we would have if Jones and Tyson play fit and Kent, Viney and Salem play full seasons. If Hogan, Gawn or T-Mac went down though it would cancel the above. I think the thing I can see is we won't go backwards. I would not be surprised if we held position whilst we embedded a more attacking style and the upswing came in 2016.  However if the right group stay on the park for the year and we get some early wins and confidence pushing for the eight is not out of the question.

Bernie was on the ball and closing players down a lot last year, if some of our younger players can take on that role then I would love to Bernie moved to the half forward flank, the guy kicks like a mule and loves a goal, he could be very dangerous hanging around there all day.

[Gator 16,910]

9 hours ago, DubDee said:

I think we need to stop using injuries as an excuse or a reason we will improve. Several teams had a worse run last year like WC, lions, Suns, pies. Aside from Viney none of our top 5-7 players were injured eg vince jones t Mac. Injuries happen every year and although we had a fair few injuries we need to be able to cope with this. 

Like it or not we will have 5 or 6 injuries at most times from round 1 as it is the nature of the game. 

It depends WHO gets injured.

At our present stage of development we need our best players playing.

Obviously, some sides can carry injuries better than we presently do.  We're still the fifth youngest team in the competition.  How do you think we cope with injuries to our better players ?

You are familiar with the fact that Sydney won a flag when they barely changed their side for about 8 weeks in a row leading into a finals series ?

Edited February 14, 2016 by ProDee

[titan_uranus 22,659]

To those who think we're "too defensive" to climb the ladder, I would say this: that argument assumes 2015's offence was either the level the club wants it to be, or the limit of our offensive capabilities.

I'd say both those are wrong. From what I've seen and read from the club this year, there continues to be a focus on improving our scoring. It's clear to me that the coaches (maybe Goodwin more than Roos, maybe not) are working on the transition from defence to offence and on making us a more attacking club. So to say we're "too defensive" because we didn't score enough last year is a pretty short-sighted argument.

As for capabilities, I'm excited for the improvement Hogan is going to give in his second season of football, I'm excited to add Kent back to the forward line, I'm excited for the Garlett-Hogan relationship to blossom and, most of all, I'm excited for our midfield to improve which will mean more inside 50s, more quality inside 50s, and easier opportunities for the forwards to score.

Based on that, we can clearly improve. I'm confident we will.

[Yossarian 1,808]

7 hours ago, ProDee said:

Unlike others, I don't overly worry about the draw, because we have no idea who'll be an easy or hard opponent.  The Dogs went from 7 to 14, while the Suns slid down the ladder.  Port didn't meet expectations.  Most of all, I don't rate many teams.  Nearly half the competition plays finals.  Ordinary sides play finals.  While we haven't beaten the likes of North or Sydney in years they don't overly concern me as opposition.  When we take the next step we will beat sides that have previously had the wood on us.  Footscray beat North and Sydney and the year before lost to both.  Things change...

Why we can be better:

Viney missed 6 games with a fracture in his leg and still came runner up in the B&F. Has taken his game and fitness to a new level this preseason as he seems to have been freed up from a "run with" role

Gawn missed 9 matches after debuting in round 10. He's been one of the preseason standouts after a terrific second half of 2015

Dom Tyson played 90% of the year with a medial strain and hamstring issues - missed 7 games. Has been outstanding in match sims

Dean Kent (rated incredibly highly inside the club) only played 4 games due to a hamstring off the bone

Mature age rookie Aaron vandenBerg missed 8 games through injury and looks in peak condition this off season

Salem was a revelation in the first 7 games before getting injured and only playing 10 for the season

Nathan Jones carried a neck injury all year and was below his best

Petracca will debut as a 20 year old with a huge body and injury free will impact games of footy

Angus Brayshaw was the sub many times and wasn't quite the same player after getting concussed in the first 5 minutes of the West Coast match - expect improvement

Frost gives us athleticism and flexibility in attack and defence - only played 3 games last year

Naturally, we can't rely on him, but I expect (hope) Jack Trengove to make a successful return to footy, which continues to add depth

Hogan will kick 60 goals this year

Our transition and ball movement is much quicker than previous preseasons - will it hold up under the pressure of AFL.  David King expects us to win "5 or 6", because he doesn't rate our style of play

Keys:

Luck with injury.  We need our best players playing.  Other teams have luck with injuries and it's about time we did

Ball movement.  If we're slow and hesitant we won't rise up the ladder

Goals - we need to get midfielders kicking goals, as well as support for Hogan and Garlet..  Can Watts kick 30, Gawn 15, Kent 20, Petracca 20...  The Dogs had 8 players kick 15 or more and we had 2.  They also had 2 players kick 50+

In 2014, Port had 9 players kick 15 or more with 3 kicking 40+ 

If we don't spread the goal kickers we won't rise up the ladder

All things considered I expect 9-10 wins, but if all goes well and the players/club get belief I believe we have the capacity to exceed those expectations

It's time

 

Really appreciating your contribution lately, ProDee. Some very detailed, well thought out posts along with all the training reports. Cheers.

[DubDee 21,065]

1 hour ago, ProDee said:

It depends WHO gets injured.

At our present stage of development we need our best players playing.

Obviously, some sides can carry injuries better than we presently do.  We're still the third youngest team in the competition.  How do you think we cope with injuries to our better players ?

You are familiar with the fact that Sydney won a flag when they barely changed their side for about 8 weeks in a row leading into a finals series ?

That's why I mentioned our best players didn't get injured. We should be able to cope with injuries to our mid-level players. We should have greater depth of senior players this year. 

My other point is that people saying we'll improve as Frost and Salem should play a full season. This doesn't make sense to me as other players will no doubt get injured

obviously I agree that the less injuries you have the greater the chance to win

[wretched.sylph 164]

9 hours ago, The Third Eye said:

Leaving aside the messenger, I want to know if people think Robbo has it right.

His point is that irrespective of the personnel, the improvement in the list, the greater depth and whether or not we have luck with injury, he believes we can't improve enough to make the eight because Rossy's game plan is far too negative.

 

 

Robbo should know better. He has worked with Roos once a week for the past two seasons.

 

When he joined the MFC, Roos was very clear about his intentions. He made a point of publicly stating that he understood the game had changed since his time with the Swans and, accordingly, his gameplan would need to be developed in a more attacking direction.

 

He also said, and has reiterated time and time again, that he would build a functional defence and then move the gameplan in a more attacking direction. Which is exactly what he has done: 2014, excellent defence, no reall attack; 2015, defence not so miserly, but we saw the skeletal beginnings of an attacking style which, in 2016: sees Roos complete the plan he explained to the supporters and media when he took the job.

 

But worse than blearily forgetting everything Roos has said over the past 3 years, is that Robbo's argument is the same tired nonsense we were hearing more than a decade ago, when the Swans were making their run towards the flag.

[Earl Hood 5,806]

9 hours ago, ProDee said:

Unlike others, I don't overly worry about the draw, because we have no idea who'll be an easy or hard opponent.  The Dogs went from 7 to 14, while the Suns slid down the ladder.  Port didn't meet expectations.  Most of all, I don't rate many teams.  Nearly half the competition plays finals.  Ordinary sides play finals.  While we haven't beaten the likes of North or Sydney in years they don't overly concern me as opposition.  When we take the next step we will beat sides that have previously had the wood on us.  Footscray beat North and Sydney and the year before lost to both.  Things change...

Why we can be better:

Viney missed 6 games with a fracture in his leg and still came runner up in the B&F. Has taken his game and fitness to a new level this preseason as he seems to have been freed up from a "run with" role

Gawn missed 9 matches after debuting in round 10. He's been one of the preseason standouts after a terrific second half of 2015

Dom Tyson played 90% of the year with a medial strain and hamstring issues - missed 7 games. Has been outstanding in match sims

Dean Kent (rated incredibly highly inside the club) only played 4 games due to a hamstring off the bone

Mature age rookie Aaron vandenBerg missed 8 games through injury and looks in peak condition this off season

Salem was a revelation in the first 7 games before getting injured and only playing 10 for the season

Nathan Jones carried a neck injury all year and was below his best

Petracca will debut as a 20 year old with a huge body and injury free will impact games of footy

Angus Brayshaw was the sub many times and wasn't quite the same player after getting concussed in the first 5 minutes of the West Coast match - expect improvement

Frost gives us athleticism and flexibility in attack and defence - only played 3 games last year

Naturally, we can't rely on him, but I expect (hope) Jack Trengove to make a successful return to footy, which continues to add depth

Hogan will kick 60 goals this year

Our transition and ball movement is much quicker than previous preseasons - will it hold up under the pressure of AFL.  David King expects us to win "5 or 6", because he doesn't rate our style of play

Keys:

Luck with injury.  We need our best players playing.  Other teams have luck with injuries and it's about time we did

Ball movement.  If we're slow and hesitant we won't rise up the ladder

Goals - we need to get midfielders kicking goals, as well as support for Hogan and Garlet..  Can Watts kick 30, Gawn 15, Kent 20, Petracca 20...  The Dogs had 8 players kick 15 or more and we had 2.  They also had 2 players kick 50+

In 2014, Port had 9 players kick 15 or more with 3 kicking 40+ 

If we don't spread the goal kickers we won't rise up the ladder

All things considered I expect 9-10 wins, but if all goes well and the players/club get belief I believe we have the capacity to exceed those expectations

It's time

ProDee we disagree on other non footy matters, as you know but this post nails it for me, in line with my thoughts exactly. Please footy gods, give us a break on injuries and I think we will be causing a lot of pain for other teams. Finals, well we are a chance if we have minimal injuries, just like several top teams manage year on year. We have some talent, we need a game plan that works and maybe we have one, we just need to stick to it and stay with it under pressure. 

[ILLDieADemon 804]

We've been the easy beats for so long no wonder no one will give us a chance at the start of the season.

I agree, we have done nothing to make people think otherwise. 

I hope this year we can put the haters back in there place.  

[Fitz Fitzpatrick 886]

14 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

I wouldn't be surprised if we only win 3-5 games.

As others have mentioned, our list has actually gotten worse with the departures of Howe and Cross. Kennedy and Bugg are ordinary players who will probably be at Casey for at least half the year while Melksham would've helped. Hopefully our ordinary trade period is offset by the natural development of our 19-22 year olds and a better injury run than last year.

Im hoping for 8-10 wins but not getting my hopes up like most others are around here.

Nice to read a post based on fact based opinion rather than emotion

[RalphiusMaximus 5,993]

16 hours ago, The Third Eye said:

Leaving aside the messenger, I want to know if people think Robbo has it right.

His point is that irrespective of the personnel, the improvement in the list, the greater depth and whether or not we have luck with injury, he believes we can't improve enough to make the eight because Rossy's game plan is far too negative.

 

I don't think he is.  The biggest flaw in his logic is the assumption that we'll still be basing the game around the initial Roos plan of boundary-line, force the throw-in and reset structures.  That was designed to allow a poorly drilled, unfit and badly developed group stay in the game.  It had the two huge benefits of limiting turnovers and stopping play from being continuous, meaning we had frequent opportunities to get everyone back into their assigned spot.  While Roos is a big fan of defensive play, that is more the sophisticated defensive work of the dockers than the simple "bomb it long to the boundary" we were using.  Now that our coaches are a bit more confident in the group and feel that they are well-drilled enough to keep their [censored] without being told every 30 seconds, we are seeing a move to more attacking play.  We will certainly see the ultra-defensive game at times during the year, but it won't be plan A anymore. 

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

21 hours ago, ProDee said:

Unlike others, I don't overly worry about the draw, because we have no idea who'll be an easy or hard opponent.  The Dogs went from 7 to 14, while the Suns slid down the ladder.  Port didn't meet expectations.  Most of all, I don't rate many teams.  Nearly half the competition plays finals.  Ordinary sides play finals.  While we haven't beaten the likes of North or Sydney in years they don't overly concern me as opposition.  When we take the next step we will beat sides that have previously had the wood on us.  Footscray beat North and Sydney and the year before lost to both.  Things change...

Why we can be better:

Viney missed 6 games with a fracture in his leg and still came runner up in the B&F. Has taken his game and fitness to a new level this preseason as he seems to have been freed up from a "run with" role

Gawn missed 9 matches after debuting in round 10. He's been one of the preseason standouts after a terrific second half of 2015

Dom Tyson played 90% of the year with a medial strain and hamstring issues - missed 7 games. Has been outstanding in match sims

Dean Kent (rated incredibly highly inside the club) only played 4 games due to a hamstring off the bone

Mature age rookie Aaron vandenBerg missed 8 games through injury and looks in peak condition this off season

Salem was a revelation in the first 7 games before getting injured and only playing 10 for the season

Nathan Jones carried a neck injury all year and was below his best

Petracca will debut as a 20 year old with a huge body and injury free will impact games of footy

Angus Brayshaw was the sub many times and wasn't quite the same player after getting concussed in the first 5 minutes of the West Coast match - expect improvement

Frost gives us athleticism and flexibility in attack and defence - only played 3 games last year

Naturally, we can't rely on him, but I expect (hope) Jack Trengove to make a successful return to footy, which continues to add depth

Hogan will kick 60 goals this year

Our transition and ball movement is much quicker than previous preseasons - will it hold up under the pressure of AFL.  David King expects us to win "5 or 6", because he doesn't rate our style of play

Keys:

Luck with injury.  We need our best players playing.  Other teams have luck with injuries and it's about time we did

Ball movement.  If we're slow and hesitant we won't rise up the ladder

Goals - we need to get midfielders kicking goals, as well as support for Hogan and Garlet..  Can Watts kick 30, Gawn 15, Kent 20, Petracca 20...  The Dogs had 8 players kick 15 or more and we had 2.  They also had 2 players kick 50+

In 2014, Port had 9 players kick 15 or more with 3 kicking 40+ 

If we don't spread the goal kickers we won't rise up the ladder

All things considered I expect 9-10 wins, but if all goes well and the players/club get belief I believe we have the capacity to exceed those expectations

It's time

Excellent analysis. Someone please send it to the Herald Sun marked to the attention of "Robbo".

[Delusional demon 82 1,196]

16 minutes ago, Ron Burgundy said:

Excellent analysis. Someone please send it to the Herald Sun marked to the attention of "Robbo".

Wouldn't meet his criteria for publishing for the following reasons:

1. Its based on factual information 

2. Written logically and coherently

3. Doesn't fit into robbos "search for the truth" dillusional essendrug agenda

Edited February 14, 2016 by Delusional demon 82

[nutbean 8,837]

17 hours ago, DubDee said:

I think we need to stop using injuries as an excuse or a reason we will improve. Several teams had a worse run last year like WC, lions, Suns, pies. Aside from Viney none of our top 5-7 players were injured eg vince jones t Mac. Injuries happen every year and although we had a fair few injuries we need to be able to cope with this. 

Like it or not we will have 5 or 6 injuries at most times from round 1 as it is the nature of the game. 

Injuries is not an excuse  - to me it is a valid fact. 

As mentioned earlier it does depend on who is injured. To not recognise that when it comes to star performers our list at this stage is thin is head in the sand stuff - we have a lot of potential but that should not be confused with depth. Many of players have not arrived yet.

The top teams are much better placed to be able cover injuries than we are. 

You did mention that several team had a worse run with injuries than we did - interesting that only WC is considered a top team and were able to cope with injuries however the seasons of the lesser teams Lions, Suns and Pies was indeed badly affected by injury.

 

[Earl Hood 5,806]

On ‎14‎/‎02‎/‎2016 at 0:20 PM, Satyriconhome said:

HL  didn't put a time frame on return,  he is back running and has been doing heaps of indoor work, looks super fit body wise, can't see him being too far away, needs to test the ankles with twisting and turning etc though

Spoke to Alex S who is head rehab guy, got a bit of a straight bat about Oliver 'is a young guy, making sure we don't break him, no real issues', he did a heap of work in rehab

Saty that explains the training routine I witnessed on Friday. Before the match sim The Prince was doing this "hand ball only keepings off" routine with Cross, two other coaches and two other players where The Prince and players had to turn their backs to the coach with the ball who would blow the whistle and throw the ball to Cross, who then would try to carry the ball to the opposite witch-hats using hand ball while being tackled by the players. It meant Prince had to blindly turn 180 degrees each time and attack the ball carrier. Later on it was three coaches and the Prince. One coach had the ball and the other two spread out each side and behind. The coach would try to disguise low stab kicks to either target and Prince had to try and anticipate and intercept the pass, another test of his ability to change direction quickly. His ankles looked fine to me and he looks bl**dy fit. 

[Grimes Times 1,278]

On 2/13/2016 at 10:17 AM, ProDee said:

Unlike others, I don't overly worry about the draw, because we have no idea who'll be an easy or hard opponent.  The Dogs went from 7 to 14, while the Suns slid down the ladder.  Port didn't meet expectations.  Most of all, I don't rate many teams.  Nearly half the competition plays finals.  Ordinary sides play finals.  While we haven't beaten the likes of North or Sydney in years they don't overly concern me as opposition.  When we take the next step we will beat sides that have previously had the wood on us.  Footscray beat North and Sydney and the year before lost to both.  Things change...

Why we can be better:

Viney missed 6 games with a fracture in his leg and still came runner up in the B&F. Has taken his game and fitness to a new level this preseason as he seems to have been freed up from a "run with" role

Gawn missed 9 matches after debuting in round 10. He's been one of the preseason standouts after a terrific second half of 2015

Dom Tyson played 90% of the year with a medial strain and hamstring issues - missed 7 games. Has been outstanding in match sims

Dean Kent (rated incredibly highly inside the club) only played 4 games due to a hamstring off the bone

Mature age rookie Aaron vandenBerg missed 8 games through injury and looks in peak condition this off season

Salem was a revelation in the first 7 games before getting injured and only playing 10 for the season

Nathan Jones carried a neck injury all year and was below his best

Petracca will debut as a 20 year old with a huge body and injury free will impact games of footy

Angus Brayshaw was the sub many times and wasn't quite the same player after getting concussed in the first 5 minutes of the West Coast match - expect improvement

Frost gives us athleticism and flexibility in attack and defence - only played 3 games last year

Naturally, we can't rely on him, but I expect (hope) Jack Trengove to make a successful return to footy, which continues to add depth

Hogan will kick 60 goals this year

Our transition and ball movement is much quicker than previous preseasons - will it hold up under the pressure of AFL.  David King expects us to win "5 or 6", because he doesn't rate our style of play

Keys:

Luck with injury.  We need our best players playing.  Other teams have luck with injuries and it's about time we did

Ball movement.  If we're slow and hesitant we won't rise up the ladder

Goals - we need to get midfielders kicking goals, as well as support for Hogan and Garlet..  Can Watts kick 30, Gawn 15, Kent 20, Petracca 20...  The Dogs had 8 players kick 15 or more and we had 2.  They also had 2 players kick 50+

In 2014, Port had 9 players kick 15 or more with 3 kicking 40+ 

If we don't spread the goal kickers we won't rise up the ladder

All things considered I expect 9-10 wins, but if all goes well and the players/club get belief I believe we have the capacity to exceed those expectations

It's time

SNAP.

7 wins last year losses to ESS Carl Stk & Stk. all who finished below us. Win those game and we could have very easily had 11 wins last year. With the above improvement 12 wins and the 8 isn't that far away.

[beelzebub 22,269]

As mentioned in  anothr thread was having a big footy convo with two of my brothers in law at a family wedding over the weekend. Both are filth  supporters  ( most of wifes family  IS !! )  one an ex afl player. Besides the 34 debacle talk got around to where we saw the season going.   Both agreed  EFC and CFC  will fight out for spoon.  Neither could see the Aints going very far ( me neither )  I was interested to hear that they seem to think  Bucks isnt all that flavour of the month  at Filthland. Both seemed to think 8th or 9th was about right for the Maggies this year.. ( fighting it out with Richmond no doubt !! )

Both thought Melbourne about right for massive improvement if, IF we can keep injuries to main players to a managable few ) Neither think Howe is worth a zac, amazed they took him but both acknowledged my prediction that they will struggle to score big as they have limited options...their fwd line is there weakness, even with Elliot. Neither rely on Cloke.

Both see a massive difficulty in teams matching up on Hogan. If we can surround him with even a couple of so-so helpers other teams are in for a torrid afternoon ( yep, knew that !!  )

Both thought wed go 50-50 for the year Made the comment we have to play with the big boys for 4 qtrs to really go anywhere and thought that might be 2017 and not this year....fair enough I said

Neither would put up for my bet on QB !!! lol   wusses 

[old dee 22,952]

8 hours ago, Ron Burgundy said:

Excellent analysis. Someone please send it to the Herald Sun marked to the attention of "Robbo".

Nah way to complex for him.

[Little Goffy 12,727]

One the one hand it is plausible to see Adelaide and North slip out the bottom end of the 8. On the other hand, Geelong 'plus Dangerfield' and Port 'plus Toumpas' would be the obvious most likely to take the step up.

I can't picture the Dogs going backwards much and... I'm just not sure I am cruel enough to wish upon Richmond the kind of crisis they'd experience if they flopped back down the ladder again. That said, it is highly plausible that they will finally wilt and never rise again.

Important, and odd, thing to note about 2015 results. Melbourne had a totally unusual profile of 'teams beaten'. Count up the wins by bottom-6 teams against teams outside that bottom 6, and you find that Melbourne has as many of those 'wins out of weight category' as the rest of the bottom 6 combined.

We let ourselves down terribly with some heads-dropped big number losses and the juvenile losses to other bottom clubs, but we are a serious club capable of being a real threat in 2016.

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

On 14 February 2016 at 5:31 PM, Jesus Hoganshaw said:

 

Really appreciating your contribution lately, ProDee. Some very detailed, well thought out posts along with all the training reports. Cheers.

Agree. ProDee's posts in recent times are kind of editorial in nature and are always well considered, interesting and insightful.

I read every one with interest.