Morton or Toumpas

[McQueen 17,864]

Glimpses are not what is needed. He was recruited as an outside mid with pace which he doesn't have

Only the MFC could make such a decision.

The term 'outside mid' has no credibility in today's game.

Draft young kids that are hard and win contested footy and develop them into players that can run and spread with speed to suit.

[Henrietta Lumbago 331]

If you peruse through the following drafts I've listed below, I reckon you'll find otherwise.

Out of the 10 drafts I've listed (looking at the top 5 picks from each of these drafts only) I found 14 very good or top players, another 22 who were 'ok' or 'alright' and in terms of supporter expectations, 14 busts.

Some here would argue that unless you get an A grader with a top 5 pick, anything less than that (B grade or C+) is a bust. Factoring that in, there's a lot more busts than people realise.

It's still too early to properly evaluate talent in the drafts from 2010 onwards.

2000 draft

2001 draft

2002 draft

2003 draft

2004 draft

2005 draft

2006 draft

2007 draft

2008 draft

2009 draft

.

Now let's look at the number 2 draft picks from the draft pools you have listed...

Justin Kosckitze 200 gamer 3 grand finals

Luke Ball club captain, all australian, premiership player

Daniel Wells All australian squad member

Andrew Walker nearly at 200 games

Jarred Roughead superstar

Dale Thomas premiership player, all australian

Scott Gumbleton BUST

Trent Cotchin superstar

Nick Natinui all australian

Jack Trengove youngest ever VFL/AFL club captain

From this list I would say the only bust is Scott Gumbleton.

Nearly One third of these picked at number 2 have gone on to captain their club.

6/10 have been selected in an all australian squad at some stage.

And by the time all of their careers are over 80% will have played 200 games of AFL, apart from Gumbleton and Trengove!

So your theory on the draft isn't as convincing as you make it out to be.

And how can you argue with people who have high expectation of Jimmy Toumpas?

[Je Roos Salem 661]

He's a step behind in pace, awareness and toughness. Doesn't have any physical attributes to get excited about. It's sad to see such a high prospect seem so limited this early in his career. Maybe give him one game as a pure onballer, feed him to the lions at the stoppages (of which he can hopefully get to) and see what he's made of. Don't think he's helpful behind the ball or on the wing at the moment

[Macca 16,900]

Now let's look at the number 2 draft picks from the draft pools you have listed...

Justin Kosckitze 200 gamer 3 grand finals

Luke Ball club captain, all australian, premiership player

Daniel Wells All australian squad member

Andrew Walker nearly at 200 games

Jarred Roughead superstar

Dale Thomas premiership player, all australian

Scott Gumbleton BUST

Trent Cotchin superstar

Nick Natinui all australian

Jack Trengove youngest ever VFL/AFL club captain

From this list I would say the only bust is Scott Gumbleton.

Nearly One third of these picked at number 2 have gone on to captain their club.

6/10 have been selected in an all australian squad at some stage.

And by the time all of their careers are over 80% will have played 200 games of AFL, apart from Gumbleton and Trengove!

So your theory on the draft isn't as convincing as you make it out to be.

And how can you argue with people who have high expectation of Jimmy Toumpas?

Why just pick 2? ... what about picks 1, 3, 4 & 5?

You're being selective again - think macro and you'll see things differently.

I'll say it again - out of the 50 top 5 picks in those 10 drafts, 14 were busts, 22 players were 'ok' or 'alright' players and only 14 of the 50 were genuine top footballers (and I was being generous with a few of those 14 players)

That is an awful strike rate considering many footy fans are expecting A grade from a top 5 pick. Especially amongst us Melbourne supporters.

One can't conveniently leave out vital data if one is arguing in a macro sense. As it is, my 50 pick sample size (10 x top 5 picks) is not a huge sample size anyway. We could look at all the first round picks from the 29 drafts and then we'd still need to include all those players who should have been top 5 picks or first round picks (specifically those players that were originally not first round draft picks)

Anyway, one can't change things back and there is one main reason why busts happen.

That reason is based on the fact that not all standout juniors can cut it in the big time. Which ones? ... who knows? And there lies the issue - which ones are going to be busts? If clubs knew the answer to that question, they wouldn't draft these players who end up being busts - but they continue to do so.

Draft sets up teens to fail, says Melbourne coach Paul Roos

Roos said one solution to the issue was to raise the draft age, a push that has the support of the majority of league coaches and is part of the AFL's wide-ranging review of the game, being chaired by Bill Kelty.

"We've tried to make it too much like America and in America the players are aged 22 and out of college. I discussed it quite frankly with the kids at the draft camp last year, where I warned them that it made me uncomfortable the way we parade them out and set them up to fail.

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Edited May 18, 2015 by Macca

[CityDee 738]

Any player in a team that is disfunctional in areas will struggle , is The toump an outside playerbest suited setting up from halfback , Watts an outside link player? Its not the players fault that our recruiting staff went for trick icing on the cake type players rather than meat and potatoes .

[DistrACTION Jackson 8,460]

I'd like to see him stay in the side but I doubt it will happen.

Jake Stringer had a shocking game yesterday for the Dogs but they will continue to back him in. We don't have the depth of players so we drop Toumpas and then we bring in someone just as poor, but who is late 20's not early.

[whatwhat say what 22,601]

It's a myth that nba draftees are all seasoned college professionals.

More and more they're kids straight out of high school - LeBron James and Kobe Bryant being the obvious examples over the last twenty years to be superstars from the get go.

Of those afl drafts highlighted up to 2009, how many players reached 100,150, 200 games?

That's a far more quantifiable measure of success than some random 'I think this player is an A, a B, etc'.

Also would be curious to see

- what mitigating factors stopped them from doing so, eg serious injury like Morabito

- how many were traded by their teams and for what

- how many left as free agents

It's too early to judge Toumpas (but it's not looking good for him reaching 100 afl games or being a one-club player), but there's no question that Morton's first three years were far more encouraging than his thus far.

He needs a stellar rest of 2015 to even come close to where Morton was at the end of his first three years, which just shows how far back he is coming from.

[wretched.sylph 164]

I think it's pretty much a gven that any thread in which SIR WYL's posts take up about a quarter of the discussion is not worth reading.

I'd much prefer Toumpas over Morton. Why? Because he's on our list. You support players who are on your list. That's your job as a Melbourne supporter.

This.

[nutbean 8,838]

There is 2 things I expect recruiters to focus on when drafting young kids..

1. Can this kid play football? I want players to make an immediate impact.

2. Can this kid mentally handle the rigors of AFL football.

Other characteristics that are integral - good inside a contest, balance, spread, the ability to harness aggression and control pace.

It isn't rocket science to find the Luke Parkers, Ollie Wines, Angus Brayshaws, Dustin Martins, Steele Sidebottoms of the draft.

Yet we drafted Toumpas, he doesn't tick any of those boxes, he had shot hips, and IMO (I know others see it different) he didn't look overly impressive in the nationals prior to getting drafted.

So it isn't rocket science ?

The same team that took Luke Parker took Jed Lamb with their first pick. They also took Lewis Johnston

The same team that took Ollie Wines took Butcher with their first pick ( touted as a number one draft pick)

The same team that took Dustin Martin took Tyrone Vickery with their first pick

The same team that took Steele Sidebottom traded for Cameron wood for a 1st round draft pick

The same team that Brayshaw..well do i need to go on

Rocket Science huh ?

you want a player that makes an immediate impact - good luck with that - each year there are around 80 players drafted - of that you can count immediate impact players on a regular basis on probably two hands - around 1 in 10 chance....

As to the attributes you want of a football -fairly obvious.

And again on you revisionism - Toumpas did check the boxes THEN. The same as most of the highly touted youngsters tick the box in the TAC. That he has not produced it at AFL level is not restricted to Toumpas. If you take the top 20 from Toumpas's year - 7 have failed to impress - you can include the 2 picks taken before ours.

So yes...it is actually rocket science with some tattslotto thrown in for good measure

Edited May 17, 2015 by nutbean

[wretched.sylph 164]

Im sorry, but did people actually watch the game yesterday? And dont give me nonsense about his 'defensive pressure'.

The kid is scared of the ball, the contest, whatever you want to call it. If it comes into his possesion or even worse, when he has it, he immediately gets rid of it at any cost. Watch his eyes/head dart around.

Has rarely taken the game on. Hasnt got great speed. Isnt a great kick.

So what is left for him? This isnt an AFL standard player.

Hips or no hips, he has had time to show something and hasnt.

Its a bust. Its time we move on.

Yeah... except for the bits which are all wrong.

His eyes/head dart around because he is looking for a target, did that really not occur to you?

He is a great kick.

He's not scared of the ball or contest, he's scared of facucking up -- and that is just confidence, which is the result of those 10 bad years, not the cause of them.

He was recruited as an outside mid, as has been stated a bajillion times. If our non-Jones inside players can ever manage double digits in effective disposals then, and only then, will we be able to judge Toump fairly.

Edited May 17, 2015 by wretched.sylph

[nutbean 8,838]

Draft position determines worth. The higher you are, the more valuable you are. The more potential.

Bingo - the biggest myth in the AFL....

The history of every draft tells you otherwise.

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

The big footy rumour is that Adelaide are into Jimmy.

If we got Lyons for him that'd be more than he's currently worth.

That being said, with Salem gone for an extended period he has a real opportunity to be the set up man behind play.

My fear is that his timidity, lack of tenacity, and poor skills when under a scintilla of pressure will once again let him down.

Adelaide really know this stuff and it says to me there's a lot more upside to Toumpas than we've seen to date.

[nutbean 8,838]

Every number 2 draft pick is expected to be a top player and most are, that's why they are taken at number 2 and not 72. Simple enough?

Josh Kelly - played some ok football - too early to call

Jonothan O'Rourke - traded already .......

Coniglio - good footballer but 2013/4 not in the top 10 B&F

Harley Bennell - I love his best but he has a way too go to be a top footballer because he doesnt do it often enough

Jack Trengove

NicNat - played a couple of good seasons - still underwhelming for mine

Cotchin - really good footballer

Scott gumbleton - hmmm - injuries cruelled him

Dale Thomas - flashy - then a couple of great seasons for the Pies struggled with form and injuries since

Not so simple for mine.....

[nutbean 8,838]

If you look at top 5 picks over the last 10 years, there is a fair degree of certainty that the club picking at these spots are going to get a substantial and above average contribution. I think it's fair to lament the possibility that one of our top 5 picks may not be of any value (FWIW I'm not writing him off yet)

Absolutely and comprehensively wrong - there are that many busts in the top 5 it makes your hair curl.

I think it is fair to assume that in any given draft one or more of the top 5 draft picks may not be of any value.

[nutbean 8,838]

No .... Would've drafted Vineys best mate.

The kid who practically begged us to pick 'im.

And if nothing else Robinson provides something we don't have ..... Mongrel.

And I definately would've considered him .... I see he kicked 3 today.

Ahhh -recruitment principle - recruit best mates - now there's some science for you.....(Jack Viney opted for Toumpas over Wines when asked - so I am not sure he agrees with your principle).

This idea that he begged us to pick him - pleeeasseee...that is media driven nonsense. When a player is touted as going to a certain club - they always talk up the club.

[Sir Why You Little 36,939]

The term 'outside mid' has no credibility in today's game.

Draft young kids that are hard and win contested footy and develop them into players that can run and spread with speed to suit.

Agreed 100%

[nutbean 8,838]

Just a reminder of what was written about Toumpas at the time of the draft - it just goes on and on. It shows me one thing and one thing only - Where you are drafted is purely a snapshot of your worth as a junior and doesn't reflect how you will make the transition to AFL senior ranks. This nonsense about his attitude - because you make someone with poor attitude and work ethic the captain of your state.....

Has he produced what we would have liked ? absolutely not - but this nonsense about "why did we draft him " is revisionism at its best.

Hard-working wingman will be reliable funnel forward for the Dees. Kicks goals and oozes leadership. Surprise he dropped out of the top three.

Jimmy Toumpas didn’t get to take part in the Draft Combine after having surgery on his hip at the conclusion of the National Champions; however, that hasn’t hurt his draft prospects. Capping off a standout season, Toumpas took home All-Australian honours after captaining South Australia in the National Championships and was noted for his high ball-winning abilities and tremendous work ethic. Jimmy Toumpas is also an AFL-AIS 2012 graduate.

A well-rounded midfielder will complement the growing wealth in the centre for the Giants. Toumpas will join the likes of Whitfield, Coniglio, Greene, Smith, Hoskin-Elliott and Tyson as first-round draft picks in the midfield, which will make GWS a very scary proposition for other teams in a few years time, if not now. Toumpas is deceptively quick, which may surprise a few teams next season. He uses the ball by hand and foot excellent, can play inside and outside, while his poise and endurance are superb. Toumpas is a little bit like Jimmy Bartel, in that he is excellent in the clinches, lifts for big games and can play through injury, as highlighted by his performances throughout the U/18 Championships, when he had a dodgy hip. But unlike Bartel, Toumpas possesses great speed, which makes him a great pick for Greater Western Sydney, rounding out their midfield.

[nutbean 8,838]

The term 'outside mid' has no credibility in today's game.

Draft young kids that are hard and win contested footy and develop them into players that can run and spread with speed to suit.

The term outside mid is used in a disparaging way.

The description of kids that are hard and win contested football run and spread with speed describes Toumpas to a tee at under 18 level. You keep hearing the same thing - plays inside and out - tremendous work ethic, hard working.

He has shown any of this at AFL level - sadly no but that doesn't rewrite what he was showing at draft time.

[IvanBartul13 2,564]

Why just pick 2? ... what about picks 1, 3, 4 & 5?

You're being selective again - think macro and you'll see things differently.

I'll say it again - out of the 50 top 5 picks in those 10 drafts, 14 were busts, 22 players were 'ok' or 'alright' players and only 14 of the 50 were genuine top footballers (and I was being generous with a few of those 14 players)

That is an awful strike rate considering many footy fans are expecting A grade from a top 5 pick. Especially amongst us Melbourne supporters.

One can't conveniently leave out vital data if one is arguing in a macro sense. As it is, my 50 pick sample size (10 x top 5 picks) is not a huge sample size anyway. We could look at all the first round picks from the 29 drafts and then we'd still need to include all those players who should have been top 5 picks or first round picks,

Anyway, one can't change things back and there is one main reason why busts happen.

That reason is based on the fact that not all standout juniors can cut it in the big time. Which ones? ... who knows? And there lies the issue - which ones are going to be busts? If clubs knew the answer to that question, they wouldn't draft these players who end up being busts - but they continue to do so.

Draft sets up teens to fail, says Melbourne coach Paul Roos

.

I find your analysis deceiving.

From the 50 from drafts you mentioned came

Riewoldt, Hodge, Judd, Goddard, McVeigh, Cooney, Deledio, Roughead, Griffen, Franklin, Murphy, Thomas, Kennedy (WCE), Pendlebury, Gibbs, Boak, Cotchin, Naitanui, Hill, Hartlett, Hurley, Martin, Cunnington, D.Swallow, Bennell.

So that is 25 players whop would safely make a big difference to our team and probably at least 15 who would be our best player and close to 10 who are genuine superstars of the competition.

Beyond that you are left with

Koschitzke, Didak, Ball, Brennan, Walker, Sylvia, McLean, Hansen, Leuenberger, Kreuzer, Masten, Scully, Day, Gaff, Polec.

All of whom would walk into our side and be top 5/10 players at their peak and a couple could easily be in the upper echelon above.

Leaves us with

Polec, X.Clake, Tambling, Ellis, Watts, Ray, Trengove, Morabito, Livingston, McDougall, Walsh, Gumbleton, Morton and Grant.

Trengove, X.Clarke, Morabito and Gumbleton have had their careers destroyed by injury. Ellis, Ray, Watts have been useful contributors.

Leaves you with Walsh, Morton, Grant, McDougall and Livingston who weren't good enough for AFL and effectively busts.

I think Demon fans have a right to expect quality from a top 5 pick.

-

[nutbean 8,838]

I find your analysis deceiving.

Beyond that you are left with

Koschitzke, Didak, Ball, Brennan, Walker, Sylvia, McLean, Hansen, Leuenberger, Kreuzer, Masten, Scully, Day, Gaff, Polec.

All of whom would walk into our side and be top 5/10 players at their peak and a couple could easily be in the upper echelon above.

-

All who could walk into our side and be 5 to 10 players at their peak and you find Macca's analysis deceiving !!!

[Maggot 1977 263]

Toumpass is a bust lets all move on !!!

His lack of speed and spread from the contest is damming, if you were coaching against us all you have to do is put a speedy player on him and bingo its your birthday.

[KingDingAling 3,752]

The trouble is MFC taken undeveloped athletic ball users - ahead of mature bodied, contested ball winners.

We did this at a time when we couldn't even extract the football out of the centre in our AFL games.

So when these kids finally came into our side, they were coming into a side that still couldn't get the ball out of the centre.

Outside types like Morton, Strauss, Blease, Toumpas, and even forwards like Watts and Cook, were always going to be up against it, because the supply was never there.

Why? Because we neglected drafting mature bodied, contested ball winners to get the ball out in the first place.

Had MFC understood the basics of football leading into these drafts - like Roos does - we would've had a completely different side, we wouldn't be in the position we are currently in. Paul Roos is having to go back, identify and rectify all the areas we previously got wrong. That is why we have Tyson, Vandenberg, Salem and Brayshaw. That is why Roos didn't take Kelly. As I've said previously, it's not rocket science.

Edited May 18, 2015 by KingDingAling

[IvanBartul13 2,564]

All who could walk into our side and be 5 to 10 players at their peak and you find Macca's analysis deceiving !!!

They all would walk into our side and be in our best 5 or 10 players. Which wouldn't.

[praha 11,226]

The trouble is MFC taken undeveloped athletic ball users - ahead of mature bodied, contested ball winners.

We did this at a time when we couldn't even extract the football out of the centre in our AFL games.

So when these kids finally came into our side, they were coming into a side that still couldn't get the ball out of the centre.

Outside types like Morton, Strauss, Blease, Toumpas, and even forwards like Watts and Cook, were always going to be up against it, because the supply was never there.

Why? Because we neglected drafting mature bodied, contested ball winners to get the ball out in the first place.

Had MFC understood the basics of football leading into these drafts - like Roos does - we would've had a completely different side, we wouldn't be in the position we are currently in. Paul Roos is having to go back, identify and rectify all the areas we previously got wrong. That is why we have Tyson, Vandenberg, Salem and Brayshaw. That is why Roos didn't take Kelly. As I've said previously, it's not rocket science.

It's definitely not rocket science, but when your team can't even compete and still loses by 100 points, suddenly building a team and applying pressure on game day is like trying to manufacture a wormhole.

[TeamPlayedFine39 8,465]

The trouble is MFC taken undeveloped athletic ball users - ahead of mature bodied, contested ball winners.

We did this at a time when we couldn't even extract the football out of the centre in our AFL games.

So when these kids finally came into our side, they were coming into a side that still couldn't get the ball out of the centre.

Outside types like Morton, Strauss, Blease, Toumpas, and even forwards like Watts and Cook, were always going to be up against it, because the supply was never there.

Why? Because we neglected drafting mature bodied, contested ball winners to get the ball out in the first place.

Had MFC understood the basics of football leading into these drafts - like Roos does - we would've had a completely different side, we wouldn't be in the position we are currently in. Paul Roos is having to go back, identify and rectify all the areas we previously got wrong. That is why we have Tyson, Vandenberg, Salem and Brayshaw. That is why Roos didn't take Kelly. As I've said previously, it's not rocket science.

Like Fyfe?