Statistical Analysis of 2015

[rpfc 28,430]

I do this every year and every year the numbers get too depressing to continue...

But this year will be different I tell myself!

For those keen to track average differential data (compared to our direct opponent) over the last few years here is a table from daisycutter from another thread:

2011, 2012 2013, 2014 Differentials

Clearances: -2.3 -6.2 -9.7 -4.8

Inside 50s : -6.1 -11 -18 -11.6

UPs: -5.5 -41 -56.7 -6.5

CPs: -10.8 -12.1 -23.5 -1.5

Margin: -15.5 -34.6 -56.2 -28.1

Qs won 30 23 20 30

*the last one is not differential data - just a tally over the season.

This table as of Rd 1 2015:

Clearances: -9

I50s: 5

UPs: 32

CPs: 14

Margin: 26

Qs Won: 3

We did better in the centre clearances than those around the ground - but that is to be expected with a midfield such as ours; their new, not very deep, and rely on two players at the moment - it's easier to compete 3v3 in the centre.

As for other measures - Points For and Points Against will be valuable somewhat but as we open the game up to score more, other teams will do the same.

Obviously it is a bit early for trends to emerge but I hope we continue to go over 50 Inside 50s a game - if you want to kick a winning score, you are going to have to get the footy in there that often.

[rpfc 28,430]

This table for Rd 2 2015 with averages:

Clearances: -14 (-11.5)

I50s: -28 (-11.5)

UPs: -47 (-7.5)

CPs: -10 (2)

Margin: -45 (-9.5)

Qs Won: 2 (Total: 5)

We were running 10 ahead in the contested possies in the first half and then that second half happened...

These numbers are a throw back to a time I thought had past.

I am more interested in the response from our best players next week than trying to find a fringe player to drop...

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

We were running 10 ahead in the contested possies in the first half and then that second half happened...

These numbers are a throw back to a time I thought had past.

I am more interested in the response from our best players next week than trying to find a fringe player to drop...

Even at half time when we were winning I did notice that GWS were well up on tackles, sadly that trend continued into the second half.

[Forest Demon 4,681]

Those numbers are damning, especially 14 less clearances and 28 less inside 50's. And all that in a game we were winning by 5 goals at one stage.

I am, perhaps foolishly, willing to sweep it under the rug this once, but if we see numbers like this on the weekend, and over the course of 4 quarters, we would be looking down the barrel of a 100+ point thumping.

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,755]

In 2012 and 2013 we saw performances like the second half in the GWS game for full games and often week after week. In 2014 we saw those same performances for halves and quarters but more irregularly. This year I was expecting we'd see it once or twice. Let's hope the team responds by showing that such a performance is now a rarity and not the new normal.

[rpfc 28,430]

Forgot to do Rd 3.

This table for Rd 3 Adelaide 2015:

Clearances: -4 (-9)

I50s: -12 (-11.67)

UPs: -5 (-6.67)

CPs: 9 (4.33)

Margin: -25 (-14.67)

Qs Won: 1 (Total: 6)

[rpfc 28,430]

This table as of Rd 4 Richmond 2015:

Clearances: -7 (-8.5)

I50s: -14 (-12.25)

UPs: 6 (-3.5)

CPs: 5 (4.5)

Margin: 32 (-3)

Qs Won: 3 (Total: 9)

And Rd 4.

Promising CP numbers holding steady. UPs about even to opponents.

Still getting beaten badly in the clearances but that is to expected with our midfield.

[Duh 109]

9 quarters won already! How does that compare to other teams in the league do you know?

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

9 quarters won already! How does that compare to other teams in the league do you know?

9 and a draw actually

http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_ladder?year=2015&pt=PD&st=AQ&sb=p

[titan_uranus 25,019]

And of the 9, 4 first quarters.

We're the only club this year to have won all four first quarters.

That's kinda cool.

[Demon Jack 6,909]

Am I the only one who's noticed that the Dees are leading the tackle count?

[Chook 15,013]

And of the 9, 4 first quarters.

We're the only club this year to have won all four first quarters.

That's kinda cool.

So much for the game being over at quarter time. That was the thing I used to hate the most about our club. Not anymore.

[chookrat 4,250]

Am I the only one who's noticed that the Dees are leading the tackle count?

2 of our games were in the wet

[Nasher 33,616]

So much for the game being over at quarter time. That was the thing I used to hate the most about our club. Not anymore.

Can't say my nerves are any better for it. At the moment I'm still waiting for the capitulation, but that is slowly fading.

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,755]

So much for the game being over at quarter time. That was the thing I used to hate the most about our club. Not anymore.

And often over well before quarter time, too.

I'm still haunted by Gary Ablett Jr in his Geelong days kicking the first goal at the 9 second mark of one game at the MCG which, not surprisingly, we went on to lose.

[rpfc 28,430]

This table as of Rd 5 2015 Fremantle (averages in brackets):

Clearances: -14 (-9.6)

I50s: -20 (-13.8)

UPs: -104 (-19.6)

CPs: -9 (1.8)

Margin: -68 (-20)

Qs Won: 0 (9)

This one hurts. I hope it is an outlier, but it has blown out the numbers above to being very ordinary.

When you are averaging 10 less clearances and 13 less Inside 50s than your opposition - you are not going to win most of your games.

Breaking even in Uncontested Possessions until this game when we were smashed by Freo 190 to 294...

Let's see how they respond against Sydney.

[DemonDave 1,089]

Great thread rpfc, I like these analytical numbers.

Interestingly in our 3 losses this year, our second half goals conceded is:

GWS - 13 to our 1

Adel - 7 to 3

Freo - 10 to 1

Are we not fit enough to be able to keep up our pressure on the better teams?
A total of 5 second half goals in our 3 losing games,while conceding 30, is dreadful no matter how you butter it.

[The Gunslinger 41]

Great thread rpfc, I like these analytical numbers.

Interestingly in our 3 losses this year, our second half goals conceded is:

GWS - 13 to our 1

Adel - 7 to 3

Freo - 10 to 1

Are we not fit enough to be able to keep up our pressure on the better teams?

A total of 5 second half goals in our 3 losing games,while conceding 30, is dreadful no matter how you butter it.

A very sobering point DD. But surely it can't be fitness, possibly attitude, resilience, confidence, application? Still lots of hard work for Roos and the coaching staff to help overcome some deep seated issues that seem to affect our club.

[rpfc 28,430]

Rd 6 Sydney

This differential table as of Rd 6 2015, average for season in brackets):

Clearances: 0 (-8)

I50s: -30 (-16.5)

UPs: -30 (-21.3)

CPs: -8 (0.16)

Margin: -38 (-23)

Qs Won: 1 (10)

Rd 7 Haw

This differential table as of Rd 7 2015, average for season in brackets):

Clearances: -12 (-8.57)

I50s: -22 (-17.29)

UPs: -47 (-25)

CPs: -19 (-2.57)

Margin: -105 (-34.71)

Qs Won: 0 (10)

Three horrible weeks...

The numbers have blown out from after the Richmond game, in the last three weeks we have had:

- 12 less Inside 50s compared to opponent than we did in the first 4 rounds (from -12 to -24)

- 57 less Uncontested Possessions compared to our opponent than we did in the first 4 rounds (from -3 to -60)

- 17 less Contested Possessions compared to our opponent than we did in the first 4 rounds (from plus 4.5 to -12)

We have also been outscored by 67 more points than we had been in the first four rounds and won just one quarter over the last three weeks.

Oddly enough, our clearance rate of -8 compared to our opponent held steady. There are a few things that people can read into about that - essentially, if we get thrashed or not, our clearance work is equally bad against all teams good, average, and mediocre...

Let's hope the confidence can return this week against the Bulldogs and we can get back to some decent footy...

[RalphiusMaximus 6,053]

This three weeks is the worst run we face during the year. It's gone now. The next four are Bulldogs, Port, Pies and Saints. While I think the team has been badly shaken by the magnitude of the losses we suffered in the last month, they will still look better in the upcoming weeks than they have. As with the first four rounds, looking at this it's easy to think we'll drop all of them, but I think two wins are very possible. Not only are they easier opponents, but we will start seeing a few injured players getting back into the side as well. Now is not the time to freak out.

[jackaub 1,402]

This three weeks is the worst run we face during the year. It's gone now. The next four are Bulldogs, Port, Pies and Saints. While I think the team has been badly shaken by the magnitude of the losses we suffered in the last month, they will still look better in the upcoming weeks than they have. As with the first four rounds, looking at this it's easy to think we'll drop all of them, but I think two wins are very possible. Not only are they easier opponents, but we will start seeing a few injured players getting back into the side as well. Now is not the time to freak out.

Yep Ralphi

How many will we win

BDs no

Pies No

Saints maybe but probably no

[Little Goffy 14,545]

This three weeks is the worst run we face during the year. It's gone now. The next four are Bulldogs, Port, Pies and Saints. While I think the team has been badly shaken by the magnitude of the losses we suffered in the last month, they will still look better in the upcoming weeks than they have. As with the first four rounds, looking at this it's easy to think we'll drop all of them, but I think two wins are very possible. Not only are they easier opponents, but we will start seeing a few injured players getting back into the side as well. Now is not the time to freak out.

I'm living in Sydney now, and got to see the Bulldogs cut open Sydney with a daring attack strategy relying on a lot of speed and hard running. And they out-worked Sydney to make it happen. Sydney!

While I highly respect our actual defenders, I think the overall team defensive effort is dangerously vulnerable. It does not have either the speed or the hard running to get back to cover the Dogs counterattacks.

We're more chance against the Pies than the Bulldogs.

But, in the end, it'll all swing on whether the players actually come out to play properly.

[RalphiusMaximus 6,053]

This three weeks is the worst run we face during the year. It's gone now. The next four are Bulldogs, Port, Pies and Saints. While I think the team has been badly shaken by the magnitude of the losses we suffered in the last month, they will still look better in the upcoming weeks than they have. As with the first four rounds, looking at this it's easy to think we'll drop all of them, but I think two wins are very possible. Not only are they easier opponents, but we will start seeing a few injured players getting back into the side as well. Now is not the time to freak out.

Yep Ralphi

How many will we win

BDs no

Pies No

Saints maybe but probably no

I'm living in Sydney now, and got to see the Bulldogs cut open Sydney with a daring attack strategy relying on a lot of speed and hard running. And they out-worked Sydney to make it happen. Sydney!

While I highly respect our actual defenders, I think the overall team defensive effort is dangerously vulnerable. It does not have either the speed or the hard running to get back to cover the Dogs counterattacks.

We're more chance against the Pies than the Bulldogs.

But, in the end, it'll all swing on whether the players actually come out to play properly.

I feel a little smug right now.

[rpfc 28,430]

I am still going...

Forgot about the Dogs:

Yay!

Clearances: 8 (-6.5)

I50s: 2 (-14.9)

UPs: 38 (-18.9)

CPs: 16 (-0.3)

Margin: 39 (-23)

Quarters Won: 3 (13)

And here is the nonsense from last weekend:

Boo!

Clearances: -7 (-6.6)

I50s: -10 (-14.3)

UPs: -41 (-21.3)

CPs: -11 (-1.4)

Margin: -61 (-27.2)

Quarters Won: 1 (14 over 9 games)

If I was to remove the Preliminary Finalists from last year these would be our averages:

Clearances: (-5.2)

I50s: (-9.4)

UPs: (6)

CPs: (6.8)

Margin: (5.4)

Quarters Won: (12 over 5 games)

Sigh.

[rpfc 28,430]

Here is an illustration of the relationship between UP differential and the margin of the games over the first 9 rounds.