Talking Point: Will age be a barrier to players getting games at Melbourne in 2015?

[Whispering_Jack 29,172]

We are approaching the middle of December, our list has been rejuvenated with 10 changes (one of them is the re-inclusion of Nev Jetta) to the primary list and 2 to the rookie list, meaning that 25% of the list is made up of players new to the club in 2015.

MELBOURNE

In: Angus Brayshaw (Sandringham Dragons) Jeff Garlett (Carlton) Sam Frost (GWS Giants) Neville Jetta (Melbourne) Heritier Lumumba (Collingwood) Oscar McDonald (North Ballarat Rebels) Alex Neal-Bullen (Glenelg SA) Ben Newton (Port Adelaide) Christian Petracca (Eastern Ranges) Billy Stretch (Glenelg SA, father-son) Aaron Vandenberg ® (Ainslie ACT) Mitchell White ® (Dandenong Stingrays).

We also have four more listed players who have yet to debut at AFL level - Jesse Hogan, Jayden Hunt, James Harmes ® and Max King ® which brings that percentage up to more than one third of our total playing list.

Of course, a couple of the "newbies" are seasoned footballers (Lumumba and Garlett) and Sam Frost and Ben Newton have some games under their belts but that still leaves a large number of players with very little exposed form at the highest level.

I've been reading the training reports and am also aware of Paul Roos' history of holding players back before giving them a taste of the real thing. We hear of stories of players at the Swans who took a while to get a senior game under Roos. Daniel Hannebery is often cited as an example after being drafted by the Swans at #30 in the 2008 AFL Draft. However, he remained in Melbourne in 2009, to complete his high schooling at Xavier College and made his debut in Round 16, 2009 for Sydney against Carlton, whilst still attending high school. In round 2010 he won the NAB AFL Rising Star award. This year Christian Salem was used sparingly and often as the sub but Jay Kennedy-Harris was given an early chance after some good form in the NAB Challenge although he was showing signs of tiredness by not longer after mid season.

The question is what are we likely to expect this year with our younger players, especially those young midfielders who are said to be stronger bodied inside types, not dissimilar to (dare I say it) Ollie Wines?

This is what Saints' coach Alan Richardson is telling his players -

Alan Richardson tells new St Kilda players age no barrier to getting games in 2015

[BAMF 4,106]

I know we talk about Paul Roos holding kids back, but as we saw last year, this is not an absolute certainty.

Also, I dont want to see youngsters gifted games over the older players.

If you are in the best 22 on selection day, then you get a game. Regardless of age.

[Sir Why You Little 36,600]

Ability will get players a game

[P-man 13,366]

I don't think it should be.

If performance and/or form warrants selection then that should be what dictates the decision.

Come the pointy end of the year, the majority of youngsters will tire anyway, so the decision makes itself. But barring that, anyone can and should be able to put their hand up.

[McQueen 17,864]

I think Roosy wanted to remove the burden more than anything that had been placed on previous young guns drafted to the Melbourne footy club. It's also driving the change to that of competitive culture through not gifting players games they clearly don't deserve.

[jnrmac 19,890]

I know we talk about Paul Roos holding kids back, but as we saw last year, this is not an absolute certainty.

Also, I dont want to see youngsters gifted games over the older players.

If you are in the best 22 on selection day, then you get a game. Regardless of age.

JKH got early games on his pre-season form.

Just sayin....

[RalphiusMaximus 6,012]

Roos won't give them games for the sake of giving them games. They have to earn it. Part of the reason we have a raft of imported 20-25 year old mids is that they become the "incumbents" that need to be knocked off to win a spot in the side. The young players are challenged to show the form and professionalism to take a spot off one of the older guys, and the older guys are challenged to play well, maintain form and hold on to their spot with a pack of young guns nipping at their heels.

[Ted Lasso 18,766]

Roos will make every player earn their spot, age and draft order is irrelevant

[Roger Mellie 3,873]

Roos doesn't have the luxury of settling in the newbies for 2 or 3 years as he did at the swans. We just don't have the depth (correction, we do / will have but the depth is a foreign concept and is emerging). IMO, they'll get games but he won't allow them to be set up as saviours. I'd expect at least Brayshaw to be held back, maybe Petracca and wouldn't be surprised if a rookie bobbed up instead or maybe ANB (if knocking down the door), because none of us is expecting the world from them (unlike Petracca and Brayshaw).

[Biffen 12,805]

Give the kid sago

[Bitter but optimistic 22,057]

Give the kid sago

In a plum pudding!

[ILLDieADemon 804]

I don't think any first year player should be given a game until they had proven them selves in the VFL.

[george_on_the_outer 7,427]

Our coach has embraced the Moneyball concept fully and has a successful history with this strategy. At the heart of the theory is that you go with what you have evidence for.... rather than something hopeful, yet maybe obviously talented.

Our drafting for the past 2 years aligns with this concept, with the result that we actually have had few new draftees to put on to the arena. Last year Salem and JKH were the ones who got the most games, but mainly as a sub. They were being eased into the game as Roos has told us he would. When they tired, they were rested at Casey or completely.

Hunt and Hogan both zero games. Yes, for different reasons, but even when Hogan was physically ready, he didn't get a run. In the Bailey/Neeld era he would have been a certainty.

So for the new draftees, Roos wants them to show they are capable and ready....slowly and without breaking them. He wants to see what they have got before they hit the field ahead of others who have already got games under the belt.

So the genuine rookies for this year Brayshaw, Petracca, McDonald and Stretch, I would expect to see the same as Salem/JKH. 10 to 12 games with lots of bench and sub time.

[DeeSpencer 24,685]

Besides the expansion teams I try to think of just how many 18 year olds can ever mix it at AFL level in the midfield in year 1.

Just from Melbourne and recent history: Scully and Trengove had variable levels of success in year 1. Brock McLean played very well on a wing as the season wore on. Jack Viney was very ready to go and had a good crack at it.

From other clubs I tend to disregard the expansion clubs. Joel Selwood is a great example. But then I think of number 1 picks like Goddard and Cooney coming on slowly and Bryce Gibbs used at half back.

Jack Macrae is a great example of a more outside type of player in his first year doing well. Toumpy not so much. Whilst Wines is pretty similar in terms of solid body shape but probably lacking endurance when he entered the system. He had a great preseason then worked his way from a predominantly forward role in to bigger and bigger midfield exposure.

Petracca has size, speed and class to play well as a forward from day 1. In terms of the midfield though I expect his fitness to hold him back unless he can be like Wines and just be so good that he gets a lot of midfield minutes despite limited overall game time. Angus Brayshaw is hard to tell. He doesn't have the same power in his game or his body as Petracca to say he would be good forward. But he's a great talent and is a competitor, so much so that he's probably the type to just find a way to get in the team.

I also think youngsters together are probably a bad combination. So I doubt we will see more than probably 3 players in their first 2 years in the team at once. Maybe 4 with the sub. GWS are the perfect example of so many good young footballers all developing well yet the team not winning. It shows young players look great in terms of skills and highlights, yet somehow get shown up by older, wiser types.

[P-man 13,366]

Our coach has embraced the Moneyball concept fully and has a successful history with this strategy.

Now you've done it..

You better hope rpfc doesn't see this post

[Whispering_Jack 29,172]

During the season that's gone past I followed the young players in draft contention from afar. Knowing that our mantra at Melbourne has, for several years been the need to resuscitate our midfield, I kept an eye on three different types who could one day take their places in our midfield. I was assisted by a couple of correspondents who kept me informed about the junior scene and I watched closely the National Under 18 championships. Three players were on my radar from the very start and by virtue of the occurrence of a number of circumstances we managed to get all three with Alex Neal-Bullen thrown in as a bonus.

Angus Brayshaw - the name was mentioned last year when he held his own in the solid Sandy Dragons midfield that contained Josh Kelly, Christian Salem and Nathan Freeman (all went top 10 in the 2013 draft). Zach Merrett and Karl Amon also played there. Brayshaw was one of two AIS members who did work experience at the club (Billy Stretch was the other) and I saw them both at training on a stinking hot day out at Casey in January. Brayshaw didn't miss a beat that day and looked comfortably at home throughout the session. Being two-sided and hard at it, he actually looked better than a few of our listed players who had been at the club for years (no surprise that a few are no longer there). I watched him train at the Dragons during the year (my grandsons' junior club trains on an adjoining ground) and he was always a stand out at training. One of my "spies" told me during the year that he was the closest thing there was in the draft to Ollie Wines* and that if we missed out the first time, we would be damned if the opportunity arose a second time and we didn't take it up. Brayshaw's Under 18 championships spoke for themselves - a leading ball winner, AA selection in the middle and touted as a future leader.

* Wines has played in all 49 games played by Port Adelaide since he made his debut in Round 1, 2013. Even if Brayshaw is handled conservatively, there seems to be very little reason why Brayshaw should be held back if he's fit, has a good pre season and shows some form in the NAB Challenge.

Christian Petracca - I still regard it as a minor miracle that we got him as well as Brayshaw. He was known as a brute of an under age man child last year and his main claim to fame was his five goal haul in the TAC Cup prelim final that got Eastern Ranges into the grand final in the absence of Tom Boyd. The following week he was one of the best in the premiership team in which Boyd got all the hype because of his three early goals on return from injury after three months. The finals got Petracca a late call up to the AIS. He then proceeded to drop kilos, work on his tank and proved he could hold his own in the midfield. All Australian under 18 honours followed and he was ultimately favourite for the #1 draft pick until the Saints leaked the news that they were taking McCartin. I expect him to initially be given a high half forward role with limited midfield exposure but his opportunities would be on the same level as Brayshaw.

Billy Stretch - we've known about him for a number of years and watched him go through the junior ranks at Glenelg making the reserves final last year as well as getting some bottom age experience with SA Under 18s. This year he was promoted to the Glenelg senior team and improved throughout the year to the point where he was putting in some dominant high 20s possession performances at the end. In between, he starred as an outside mid in SA's championship winning under 18 team and gained AA honours. He was named in their best in nearly every game so I'm still scratching my head in wonderment as to how we only had to use pick #42 to get him. However, he's slightly built and I think he will need more development time at VFL level so I don't expect him to be a regular in Demon colours just yet.

The added bonus was Alex Neal-Bullen who was not really on the radar until some good reports stated coming in about his ability to get the hard ball out of the middle for SA under 18s. Didn't put a foot wrong in the final game against Vic Metro when he and Dean Gore both put Brayshaw and Petracca to the sword in the midfield. ANB could get early game time if he reproduces the sort of form that saw him accumulate 30 possessions for Glenelg in the second last round of the SANFL season.

And then there's Jesse Hogan!

[P-man 13,366]

WJ, if you don't mind I'm trying to keep a lid on things and you're making it very difficult.

[Guest]

I don't think age should be a barrier but if the past has taught us anything, it's that the kids shouldn't be overburdened.

People here talk of JKH and Salem getting games but keep in mind that those kids just got a taste of senior footy. They weren't always in the engine room and they weren't expected to get 30 possies a game but if they bobbed up with a cameo performance then so much the better. The hard yakka was left to the Jones, Cross' and Vinces of this world and our midfield was the better for it.

Look at Chris Salem in his first year and Jimmy Toumpas in his debut season. Salem never set the league on fire this year but when he did have pill in his hands, he looked pretty self assured (see the match winning goal after the Essendon game). Jimmy, on the other hand and by no fault of his own, looked mortified that he would stuff it up. Add to this the fact that Jimmy had to spend most of this year on the injured list (possibly from overtaxing his body) and the theory that Roos is playing to clearly holds water.

[Barney Rubble 1,576]

Best 22 is the mantra of Roos.

[rpfc 28,046]

Did I read effing 'moneyball' again?!

[rpfc 28,046]

And the kids that are not ready, will not play; hooray for that...

[Whispering_Jack 29,172]

There are people who are questioning Petracca's general fitness and endurance but at the Draft Combine he recorded a top ten finish with 14.10 for the beep test which doesn't suggest that he lacks fitness or endurance. There seems to be a contradiction between what people are seeing on the track and the testing results. I'm sure there must be an explanation.

[rpfc 28,046]

I did a 13 beep test a few months ago... 193cm, 100kgs...

I don't mind the beep test but if you are half fit, you should be able to get in the teens rather easily.

I just wouldn't equate it to competitive running and sprint work at training.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

I did a 13 beep test a few months ago... 193cm, 100kgs...

I don't mind the beep test but if you are half fit, you should be able to get in the teens rather easily.

I just wouldn't equate it to competitive running and sprint work at training.

and IMHO has very little to do with actually being an effective player or not

just ask Nicholson and Bail how their track dominance translates to an AFL field

sometimes I think people forget this is football, not track and field

[Whispering_Jack 29,172]

I did a 13 beep test a few months ago... 193cm, 100kgs...

I don't mind the beep test but if you are half fit, you should be able to get in the teens rather easily.

I just wouldn't equate it to competitive running and sprint work at training.

and IMHO has very little to do with actually being an effective player or not

just ask Nicholson and Bail how their track dominance translates to an AFL field

sometimes I think people forget this is football, not track and field

Both of you are addressing different issues. My comments relate to reports from training about Petracca's fitness. I haven't read any criticism of his skills or his ability to produce explosive bursts of football but I questioned why the doubts about his endurance given his excellent beep test at the Draft Combine.

The beep test is an aerobic fitness test. It's meant to test a person's endurance, not their pace over short distances or their football skills.