Moneyball Two

[Harry Plopper 105]

I have some concerns about how MFC is handling the upcoming trade period.

We all remember the famous 'moneyball' trade period of 2012 where we lost players Moloney, Rivers, Martin, Gysberts and Petterd and brought in Dawes, Byrnes, Rohan, Pedersen and Gillies. Since then, Dawes has been underwhelming, Gillies delisted whilst Byrnes and Rodan have already retired.

It appears now that we may be undertaking another 'moneyball' trade period. Merrett, Lumumba, Frost? Two of these players are past their primes just as Byrnes and Rohan were and Frost looms as a potential Pedersen or Gillies comparison, meaning he could either improve and contribute well or fall away.

Note as well that all these players are usually played in defence. Roos has also made it very public that our improvement needs to come from the midfield so I am a bit confused by this. Some have posted on here that this is all smokes and mirrors for our real targets, I am not so sure.

Don't get me wrong I am glad we are targeting players with experience, we obviously cannot recruit only 18 year olds. But I was beginning to wonder if our excitement of having Paul Roos as coach is leading us to believe that "we know what we are doing this time round, its a new board" etc etc. but is this strategy really going to work?

I think we need to back ourselves in to only get these players if the deal is right and not payer overs because we are desperate for senior experience (for example I would argue that pick 22 for Lumumba is paying overs). If these players come cheaply then I understand our attraction but I am not so sure they will. Otherwise, I would rather see us go to the draft and back MFC to mould them into strong players of the future. Even if this means trading down picks so there is less pressure on the players (trade pick 2 to gold coast for picks 7 and 14) as all the media seems to indicate that the players in the 5 - 15 range are all of a similar standard and could go anywhere.

Just confirming I am very happy with Paul Roos and PJ but just a bit concerned.

Thoughts?

Edit: spelling

Edited October 1, 2014 by Harry Plopper

[Nasher 33,616]

Our last attempt at getting experienced players got us Vince, Cross and Tyson; 3 of our best 5 players currently, while still having a pick low enough to draft a talent such as Salem. Who says that isn't what's going to happen again this time?

[Harry Plopper 105]

Our last attempt at getting experienced players got us Vince, Cross and Tyson; 3 of our best 5 players currently, while still having a pick low enough to draft a talent such as Salem. Who says that isn't what's going to happen again this time?

I agree Nasher, last period we did very well out of the senior recruits, I just hope we are not pushing our luck!

[beelzebub 23,376]

Neeld was MoneyBall : Flawed execution

Last Year was Moneyball 2 : A better way

This year is Moneyball 3 : A fist full of dollars

Moneyball got off to a poor start at first but is going to work just fine

[dazzledavey36 54,944]

The Shannon Byrnes one was a disaster. Struggled in his last 2 years at Geelong with for and injury and then we signed him to a two year deal.

Cam Pedersen played 2 games in 2012 because he strugged to break into the team.

Tom Gillies played 5 games in 2012 because he struggled to break into the team.

David Rodan played 10 games in 2012 because he struggled to break into the team and injury was catching up to him.

The players we are chasing is:

H Lumamaba played 21 games this year and was playing some good consistent footy this year. Still has a good 4 years ahead of him. Very very durable.

Daniel Merrett played 19 games this year between full back and forward line role, again been pretty durable last couple of years only suspension been the problem for him. . Still can offer us probably 3 years to help the load on Hogan and McDonald.

Sam Frost played 16 games this year and is a big key position player who can play forward and back. Still pretty young only 20 years old and a lot of years ahead of him.

The trend is back in Neeld days we brought in blokes who were finished and struggling to break into their respective sides and it showed when they came to us, they were just ordinary footballers full stop.

Rossy is bring in blokes who are already in the best 22 and playing good footy still. all three will make big impacts for us still.

[nutbean 8,838]

I agree Nasher, last period we did very well out of the senior recruits, I just hope we are not pushing our luck!

Neeld's idea was 100% right - we had ( and still have) some promising youngsters with potential ( don't you love the word potential). We were bereft of plus 24 year old talent and leadership.

Neeld's problem was not with identification of what was wrong but rather the product he selected to fix the problem and/or his ability to get anything out of the product he selected.

Fast forward to Roos - forget Tyson as he is a junior - but Cross and Vince were brought in specifically to give guidance and leadership and I believe that has been successful. Is it the player selection or the coach ? Who knows and doesn't matter. The end result on those two has been good.

[DemonOX 8,791]

MoneyBall should be a word that IS sensored.

Gives me nightmares just thinking about it!

[The Song Formerly Known As 6,479]

MoneyBall should be a word that IS sensored.

Gives me nightmares just thinking about it!

Jeepers! Don't use that word round here; ears and eyes everywhere.

[DemonOX 8,791]

Where do u find this shite Song??

[Wiseblood 24,637]

Daniel Merrett played 19 games this year between full back and forward line role, again been pretty durable last couple of years only suspension been the problem for him. . Still can offer us probably 3 years to help the load on Hogan and McDonald.

All good points dazzle, but since when have we been chasing Sauce Merrett?

Edit - just saw the other thread. Should have looked first, but this was the first thread I clicked on for the morning!

Edited October 1, 2014 by Wiseblood

[What 18,810]

no caparison to the Neeld l approach where he bought in spuds that other clubs delisted or were going to delist and were never going to help us

Roosy is bringing in legit players that will help us win games

and i hate the term 'moneyball', such a stupid yank word

[Redleg 40,926]

The Shannon Byrnes one was a disaster. Struggled in his last 2 years at Geelong with for and injury and then we signed him to a two year deal.

Cam Pedersen played 2 games in 2012 because he strugged to break into the team.

Tom Gillies played 5 games in 2012 because he struggled to break into the team.

David Rodan played 10 games in 2012 because he struggled to break into the team and injury was catching up to him.

The players we are chasing is:

H Lumamaba played 21 games this year and was playing some good consistent footy this year. Still has a good 4 years ahead of him. Very very durable.

Daniel Merrett played 19 games this year between full back and forward line role, again been pretty durable last couple of years only suspension been the problem for him. . Still can offer us probably 3 years to help the load on Hogan and McDonald.

Sam Frost played 16 games this year and is a big key position player who can play forward and back. Still pretty young only 20 years old and a lot of years ahead of him.

The trend is back in Neeld days we brought in blokes who were finished and struggling to break into their respective sides and it showed when they came to us, they were just ordinary footballers full stop.

Rossy is bring in blokes who are already in the best 22 and playing good footy still. all three will make big impacts for us still.

Agree. If we get these three we can concentrate purely on mids. We should be able to trade and draft at least 7 of them. That should be a good start.

We replace a non playing MC with Merrett, add HL to the back line as a ball carrier and a promising young key back and possible forward. We have pick 3 to use for 1-2 players. Stretch is added.

I say we are moving in the right direction.

[Deez 298]

i don't think we need to worry.
We are cashed up, we have enough cash to avoid rodan/byrnes types.

perhaps our first moneyball attempt played out as it did due to a lack of cash?

This year we potentially have the best set of picks and probably the most space in our salary cap or close to it.

I don't think we will be picking up players that are close to retiring unless they have a lot to offer in terms or training standards, morals and experience.

[Moonshadow 17,676]

*RODAN and PETTERD.

[boydie 655]

While I'm a little underwhelmed by the names of Merrett, Frost and Lumumba I can see the point.

Merrett will fill the void of Frawley and give Frost time to develop in between Casey and seniors. Lumumba will provide run from half back which at present we don't currently have. I expected Billy Stretch is another that they would see as a played to provide that run but I expect him to be allowed to actually develop at Casey next year rather than thrown to wolves.

I'd honestly be expecting and happy to see NONE of our players that are recruited through the draft and have never played at AFL level play in the senior side next year.

[rpfc 28,433]

The disaster of our list has been abysmal drafting over a decade.

Giving Byrnes a two year contract isn't a disaster.

And Moneyball?

Groan.

[ILLDieADemon 804]

The differences is in 2012 we had a nob for a coach and no one wanted to join our club so we could only get crap players to fill the spots of crap players.

Now we have a good coach and a bit of direction so good players want to join our club now.

[Bay Riffin 1,474]

The differences is in 2012 we had a nob for a coach and no one wanted to join our club so we could only get crap players to fill the spots of crap players.

Now we have a good coach and a bit of direction so good players want to join our club now.

Well first of all we are about to lose Frawley. We have only Dawes as the experienced key forward who can hold a position, so we do need back up ideally with players who can play both ends. and Sam Frost and Merret can spend time at both end of the ground.

Merret has surprised me in his improvement, is a big body with mongrel. we need that. Frost I just have to trust the judgement of the football dept, but if he is like his brother, then get him. he is the young shining light at Collingwood.

good things about all 3 is they attack the footy and we need that.

[poita 3,902]

I don't understand the love for Roos and his list management approach around here. Cross did his job in 2014 but faded towards the end and will be gone by the end of 2015. Vince was good in 2014, but not great and I suspect we paid at the top end of his worth. Tyson was excellent, but the overall success of that deal depends on Salem becoming a decent player - at the moment it is pick 2 + 21 for Tyson + fringe player, so the jury is still out. Riley and Michie will be depth at best.

The names of the players mentioned as possible trade targets this year fill me with absolute dread, Frost aside. Most are well past their best, or just plain average footballers. Other than the fanciful approach to Dangerfield, I can't see that any of our deals are going to help us fix our biggest problem, ie the midfield.

[What 18,810]

Other than the fanciful approach to Dangerfield, I can't see that any of our deals are going to help us fix our biggest problem, ie the midfield.

Poita, we have no idea whats going on behind closed doors and neither do the media

And trade week doesn't even start til Monday

[CBDees 3,167]

Neeld's idea was 100% right - we had ( and still have) some promising youngsters with potential ( don't you love the word potential). We were bereft of plus 24 year old talent and leadership.

Neeld's problem was not with identification of what was wrong but rather the product he selected to fix the problem and/or his ability to get anything out of the product he selected.

Fast forward to Roos - forget Tyson as he is a junior - but Cross and Vince were brought in specifically to give guidance and leadership and I believe that has been successful. Is it the player selection or the coach ? Who knows and doesn't matter. The end result on those two has been good.

And Mitchie will also prove good for us in the long-term! {Still undecided about Riley]

[rpfc 28,433]

I don't understand the love for Roos and his list management approach around here. Cross did his job in 2014 but faded towards the end and will be gone by the end of 2015. Vince was good in 2014, but not great and I suspect we paid at the top end of his worth. Tyson was excellent, but the overall success of that deal depends on Salem becoming a decent player - at the moment it is pick 2 + 21 for Tyson + fringe player, so the jury is still out. Riley and Michie will be depth at best.

The names of the players mentioned as possible trade targets this year fill me with absolute dread, Frost aside. Most are well past their best, or just plain average footballers. Other than the fanciful approach to Dangerfield, I can't see that any of our deals are going to help us fix our biggest problem, ie the midfield.

Cross came in and was fantastic in our young midfield and actually took some load of Nathan Jones. You like him, yeah?

Vince did the same and offered consistency and confidence in the midfield.

Tyson was outstanding and joined the other two in great finishes in the Bluey.

And as for that trade - if Salem is a 'fringe player' then so is Kelly and Gardiner. Time will tell on that deal.

But what time won't tell you is that we needed mids, we still do as you allude to, and Tyson offered exactly what we and Nathan Jones needed that any Pick 2 like Billings or Kelly would not have given him.

You are whinging over hypothetical and rumour and talking down the reality of last years trade week which, at this point, looks like a masterstroke.

[Deez 298]

I don't understand the love for Roos and his list management approach around here. Cross did his job in 2014 but faded towards the end and will be gone by the end of 2015. Vince was good in 2014, but not great and I suspect we paid at the top end of his worth. Tyson was excellent, but the overall success of that deal depends on Salem becoming a decent player - at the moment it is pick 2 + 21 for Tyson + fringe player, so the jury is still out. Riley and Michie will be depth at best.

The names of the players mentioned as possible trade targets this year fill me with absolute dread, Frost aside. Most are well past their best, or just plain average footballers. Other than the fanciful approach to Dangerfield, I can't see that any of our deals are going to help us fix our biggest problem, ie the midfield.

I think cross's season faded due to a fractured leg? he came back from it quite strong. so i think we can dismiss that.

B vince was among our best in nearly every game - he played an entire season - we may have paid more for him but worth every penny.

If we didn't pick up salem who might we have picked? the only answer is another draftee who's potential is as questionable as salems.

and yes we picked up riley who's potential is still very much untapped - after a preseason and some game time we can make further assessments of both he and michie.

They are currently better than our previous depth players, and they didn't cost much.

[Little Goffy 14,546]

Our list in 2014 was short about 5 'reliable AFL standard' players.

I'm comfortable with the targets currently being looked at, but it is all far from exciting. It will help us be consistently competitive in 2015, and to give the young recruits a better space to develop their game in.

Meanwhile, the 2015 free agency list is massive. We should definitely be stashing away fat wads of salary cap space, front-ending contracts, and getting ready to make the ultimate multiple-player grab. North in the 70s stuff. Exploit the free agency cracks so hard the AFL realise they need to reform it.

[Bitter but optimistic 22,241]

Where do u find this shite Song??

He's a bloody teacher with time on his hands!