Draft Picks 1 - 20

[rjay 24,928]

key to me - is stability

stability with admin

stability with coaching

My two concerns is

Not enough good senior players to protect, mentor and teach the kids

Not enough good senior players meaning juniors have to play out of their skin consistently to get a game.

Have a look at the Hawks for instance - how many first year players are getting a gig with them ?

All good points but this last one, there could be a few reasons here. One is they don't get a high enough pick and have traded off their picks in recent years building a premiership team so the young talent pool may not be that great, another is they are a strong unit and hard to break into and I guess we better say that Billy Hartung their first pick at 24 last year has played a few games.

[nutbean 8,838]

All good points but this last one, there could be a few reasons here. One is they don't get a high enough pick and have traded off their picks in recent years building a premiership team so the young talent pool may not be that great, another is they are a strong unit and hard to break into and I guess we better say that Billy Hartung their first pick at 24 last year has played a few games.

true - but the likes of Hill and Langford took and are are taking a few seasons to come through. The strong teams don't need to hurry their juniors through - we do.

[Earl Hood 6,086]

The thing that I find strange is that it feels as though Melbourne have drafted better with their late picks. Therefore, I would have thought that a lack of funding would impact on these picks more as they are more speculative and require more research.

It would be interesting to compare prominent phantom drafts with real draft results and assess which have been more successful.

Yes I mentioned on another thread that it was extraordinary that for the GWS or Weagles game we had one post 2006 first round draftee playing in the starting 21 i.e. Watts. WE had only Jones, Chip and Dunn playing from pre 2006 first round draftees. The rest of the side was made up of recycled players from other clubs or late picks from 30 onward, Garland, McDonald, Jetta, Howe, etc,etc,

We make a good case for Roos "moneyball" syle drafting preference. Trade for expereinced players so you know what you are getting, use latter picks on project players etc.

[drdrake 3,163]

We make a good case for Roos "moneyball" syle drafting preference. Trade for expereinced players so you know what you are getting, use latter picks on project players etc.

You need to get the balance right, last year was good we still managed to add Tyson, Michie and Rielly along with Vince and Cross. That period had an eye on the present and also the future, add Salem and JKH to the mix and it looks like a good drafting trading period.

Mark Neeld tried the same, he got Clark paid the right price for him then added a few spuds that was all he could get.

The big test is this trading period, I dare to so I'm playing under Paul Roos helped last year, this year I don't think this will have the same drawing power.

[Beats 190]

What MFC supporter hasn't done this sort of analysis in the last few years?

My question from that analysis is - has any other team had as many 'major/ collision' injuries to high draft picks?

Molan (some of the worst footballing injuries in the history of the game), Bell (major history of concussion), Blease (broken leg), Strauss (broken leg), Mitch Clark (depression), Trengove (navicular)

We'll never know whether the injuries had any affect on the career trajectory of any of the aforementioned players, but very few players come back better from those sort of injuries.

[TheoX 1,222]

Lucas Cook worst pick ever, such a dud.

[Bluey's Dad 3,419]

I disagree vehemently ! This idea that you must be able to determine the best - you can only determine the best at the time - as to how they will turn out - its crystal ball and tattslotto stuff. As i said before go backthrough drafts - Wines went down the order and IMO is the best from that draft. Bontempelli is looking the best from this draft to date ( we are judging way too early). The order in which players are selected compared to their careers is proof enough of how inexact the science. If you had to rearrange every draft going back on what we know now not one would be in the correct order. What does that tell you ?

I have said elsewhere though - it is extra difficult for us - we have had poor structures, poor coaching, poor senior players ( mentors). Imagine JKH sitting in the forward pocket at the Hawks - Clarkson coaching, Roughead, Gunston, Rioli around you - make life a bit easier ?

I have maintained that we have developed our youth very poorly and I am hoping the new structure will get it right. I do fear though that we dont give our players enough time to develop in the magoos as we have no one in the seniors that will keep them out.

Interesting.

Maybe the whole draft system should be redone, so drafts picks are given out as a result of a rolling net adjusted drafted players position.

I'll elaborate:

Each player drafted in a say a 5 year period, maybe going back 7 years (so the most recent 2 years are excluded) are ranked based on their current AFL ranking (that thing they keep putting on the AFL website). Then you compare each player to where they were actually drafted. Then you tally up each team's net movement of draft players (up or down).

Eg player X was drafted at 34 but is ranked number 2 in the AFL, so that team gets +32 points, where player Y was drafted at pick 4 but is now ranked 150 in the AFL, so thats -146 points.

The team with the lowest total number (I assume a large negative number) gets pick number 1, second most gets 2 and so on until the team who has drafted the best gets pick 18. It may be that no one ends up with much of a positive score, but it doesn't matter since they are all relative to each other.

Just an idea that came to me after reading your post. Not sure even remotely viable or not, but I thought it was interesting.

[praha 11,240]

We should use Watts and a few picks to get Allen Christensen.

[rpfc 28,433]

Interesting.

Maybe the whole draft system should be redone, so drafts picks are given out as a result of a rolling net adjusted drafted players position.

I'll elaborate:

Each player drafted in a say a 5 year period, maybe going back 7 years (so the most recent 2 years are excluded) are ranked based on their current AFL ranking (that thing they keep putting on the AFL website). Then you compare each player to where they were actually drafted. Then you tally up each team's net movement of draft players (up or down).

Eg player X was drafted at 34 but is ranked number 2 in the AFL, so that team gets +32 points, where player Y was drafted at pick 4 but is now ranked 150 in the AFL, so thats -146 points.

The team with the lowest total number (I assume a large negative number) gets pick number 1, second most gets 2 and so on until the team who has drafted the best gets pick 18. It may be that no one ends up with much of a positive score, but it doesn't matter since they are all relative to each other.

Just an idea that came to me after reading your post. Not sure even remotely viable or not, but I thought it was interesting.

I like your idea as a way of illustrating how bad our drafting has been.

It won't hit on Opportunity Cost disasters like Jurrah instead of Rockliff but it will tell you that Morton, Cook, Maric, Molan, Bell, Bate, Blease, Tapscott, etc have kept us red in our draft ledger...

As for legislating something from it - too hard.

[Bluey's Dad 3,419]

I like your idea as a way of illustrating how bad our drafting has been.

It won't hit on Opportunity Cost disasters like Jurrah instead of Rockliff but it will tell you that Morton, Cook, Maric, Molan, Bell, Bate, Blease, Tapscott, etc have kept us red in our draft ledger...

As for legislating something from it - too hard.

You're probably right.

Would be a very interesting exercise though.

[nutbean 8,838]

You're probably right.

Would be a very interesting exercise though.

The trouble is that it will be a forever re-adjustment. Because it is not one year that the pick order doesnt match the output.

It is every year - i will say though -we will have a fair share of "credits".

The issue you will have with other clubs is ( and goes to my point) - " you get the talent and just dont develop it"

[daisycutter 29,616]

The trouble is that it will be a forever re-adjustment. Because it is not one year that the pick order doesnt match the output.

It is every year - i will say though -we will have a fair share of "credits".

The issue you will have with other clubs is ( and goes to my point) - " you get the talent and just dont develop it"

you mean we don't "deserve" it?

[nutbean 8,838]

you mean we don't "deserve" it?

same same

Edited August 25, 2014 by nutbean

[Chook 15,013]

FB: Lynden Dunn, James Frawley, Colin Garland

B: Jack Grimes, Tom McDonald, Michael Johnson

C: Kade Simpson, Nathan Jones, Patrick Dangerfield

F: Tom Rockliff, Chris Dawes, Jack Darling

FF: Mark LeCras, Daniel Merrett, Ivan Maric

Int: Dane Swan, Sam Mitchell, Bernie Vince, Cyril Rioli

Depth: Jack Viney, Dom Tyson, Jack Trengove, Mark Jamar, Max Gawn, etc, etc, etc,

[jumbo returns 6,741]

well done Demon abroad.

I highlighted some players I wanted us to pick above, as the Types I wanted us to recruit. Some boys with some aggressive edge to them, from the ones I saw.

I wanted us to get more aggression into our list & abandon the choir boys. We can recruit skilled players who aren't also boys next door.

I would have taken blease before Zarharakis, but there ya go? the game changed into a less space game.

Blease over Zaharakis? Even when both players were at school footy, Zaharakis was monstering the AGSV, whereas Blease was running around like a cherry picker....

Nothing's changed.

[Redleg 40,925]

I know it is pointless to look back at the past and this has probably been done to death already but as a supporter overseas when I talk to someone about AFL and the team I follow (maybe I should lie) I am often asked why my team is so rubbish. The quick answer I give is that we haven't drafted the right players in recent years. As I currently have some time on my hands I have had a look into this in more detail and it is shocking reading.

As obvious as it is, clearly the biggest reason the club is where it is now is our drafting, in particular our inability to get value from our top 20 draft pics. I know that development of players is also an issue (who knows how much) but very few players that we have selected in the top 20 have gone on to forge successful careers at other clubs once we parted ways with them so I'd suggest they were not up to it in the first place.

I think you can trace the issues as far back as 2001/2002, if you look at the players to come out of these drafts a number are club captains/legends of the game. We have no leadership from this era other than what we have brought in from outside the club.

I know that if we made better selections in the earlier years then we would not have finished so low on the ladder and got the early draft picks in subsequent years but ignoring this for the sake of the exercise our records for picks 1 to 20 is horrific and makes for some terrible reading:

I have excluded 2012/2013 as they are too soon to call definitively. And I also snuck in pick 21 from 2007 (near enough)

2001 - FAIL....Could be a 200 plus game leader of the club in the final year or two of career

Pick 9: Luke Molan – Zero Games

Pick 17: Traded to Geelong along with Pick 41 for Clint Bizzell (Geelong Selected James Kelly with 17)

Notable players available at these selections who are still playing:

Nick Dal Santo #13, James Kelly #17, Steve Johnson #24, Sam Mitchell #36, Leigh Montagna #37, Dane Swan #58, Brian Lake #71, Andrew Carazzo #5 Rookie Draft (RD), Matthew Boyd #23 (RD), Aaron Sandilands #33 (RD)

2002 – FAIL.....Again could be a 200 plus game leader at club in the final year or two of career

Pick 14: Daniel Bell – 66 Games

Pick 15: Nicholas Smith – 4 Games

Notable players available at these selections who are still playing:

Will Minson #20, Tom Lonergan #23, Daniel Merrett #30, Kade Simpson #45, Ryan Crowley #55, Nick Malceski #64, Brad Sewell #7 (RD), Michael Firrito #10 (RD)

2003 – FAIL.....OK this was a rubbish draft to have a priority selection but with two picks in the top 5 should have at least one very solid player out of this draft still on our list and a leader at the club

Pick 3: Colin Sylvia – 157 Games

Pick 5: Brock McLean – 94 Games

Notable players available at these selections who are still playing:

Beau Waters #11, Brent Stanton #13, Troy Chaplin #15, David Mundy #19, Jed Adcock #33, Daniel Jackson #53, Sam Fisher #55, Michael Rischitelli #61, Michael Johnson #8 Pre-Season Draft (PSD)

2004 - LOW PASS.....Both have played 100 games for the club and Dunn has been one of our better players this year, neither though have been consistent performers over their career

Pick 13: Matthew Bate – 102 Games

Pick 15: Lynden Dunn – 138 Games

Notable players available at these selections who are still playing:

Angus Monfries #14, Nathan Van Berlo #24, Matt Rosa #29, Mark Lecras #37, Ivan Maric #40, Eddie Betts #3 (PSD), Dale Morris #19 (RD)

2005 – WIN.........Finally a winner, can’t fault Nathan Jones at Pick 12

Pick 12: Nathan Jones - 178 Games

2006 – WIN.....Probably have to say this is a win too, although I am in the camp hoping Frawley is not at the club next year and we can use the compensation to good effect

Pick 12: James Frawley

Notable players available at this selection:

Jack Riewoldt #13, Mitchell Brown #16, Eric MacKenzie #29, Kurt Tippett #32, Todd Goldstein #37, Robbie Gray #55, Justin Westhoff #71, Sam Jacobs #1 (RD),

2007 – FAIL.......Grimes gets a pass although as a footballer he has his limitations, the other two are clear busts, especially Morton considering the quality of players available at pick 4

Pick 4: Cale Morton - 73 Games

Pick 14: Jack Grimes – 86 Games

Pick 21: Addam Maric – 21 Games

Notable players available at this selection:

David Myers #6, Lachlan Henderson #8, Ben McEvoy #9, Patrick Dangerfield #10, Cyril Rioli #12, Brad Ebert #13, Harry Taylor #17, Alex Rance #18, Callan Ward #19, Scott Selwood #22, Scott Thompson (NM) #37, Chris Mayne #40, Jack Steven #42, Cale Hooker #54, Nathan Grima #14 (RD), Brodie Martin #52 (RD), Shane Mumford #57 (RD)

2008 – HUGE FAIL.....Very doubtful any of these 3 will be at the club next year. From these picks we should have at least 2 near 100 game players to build a side around. The list of available players at these picks makes for hard reading.

Pick 1: Jack Watts – 94 Games

Pick 17: Sam Blease – 33 Games

Pick 19: James Strauss – 24 Games

Notable players available at these selections:

Nick Naitanui #2, Stephen Hill #3, Hamish Hartlett #4, Michael Hurley #5, Chris Yarran #6, Daniel Rich #7, Jack Ziebell #9, Phil Davis #10, Steele Sidebottom #11, Luke Shuey #18, Hayden Ballantyne #21, Jackson Trengove #22, David Zaharakis #23, Jack Redden #25, Dayne Beams #29, Daniel Hannebery #30, Liam Shiels #34, Stephen Motlop #39, Rory Sloane #44, Tom Rockliff #5 (PSD), Luke Breust #47 (RD)

2009 – HUGE FAIL......Another terrible effort, ultimately Tom $cully pissing off could do us a favour in the long run with Hogan now on the list but we have had no use of that pick for the last 2 years now and will have to wait another year or two of development. Trengrove is a solid but limited footballer and Gysberts who was a surprise selection amounted to nothing at the club or at North Melbourne

Pick 1: Tom Scully – 31 Games

Pick 2: Jack Trengrove – 81 Games

Pick 11: Jordan Gysberts – 19 Games

Notable players available at these selections:

Dustin Martin #3, Ben Cunnington #5, Daniel Talia #13, Lewis Jetta #14, Nat Fyfe #20, Ryan Bastinac #21, Jake Carlisle #24, Mitch Duncan #28, Jack Gunston #29, Sam Reid #38, Allen Christensen #40,

2010 – FAIL.....Cook was another surprise selection and didn't play a single game nor was he picked up by another club subsequently. You have to go very deep in this draft to find another player that did not play a single game

Pick 12: Lucas Cook – Zero Games

Notable players available at these selections:

Brodie Smith #14, Shaun Atley #17, Issac Smith #19, Cameron Guthrie #23, Jack Darling #26, Scott Lycett #29, Josh Green #32, Luke Parker #40, Paul Puopolo #66, Josh Jenkins #12 (RD), Luke Dahllhaus #22 (RD)

2011 – FAIL.......Can’t blame the club for this one but at the end of the day it is another one that has not gone our way and cost us a useful player that we could have drafted if we used the pick (although with our strike rate, probably not)

Pick 12: Traded to Brisbane for Mitch Clark – 15 Games

Notable players available at these selections:

Taylor Adams #13, Devon Smith #14, Brandon Ellis #15, Jackson Merrett #31, Bradley Hill #33, Sam Rowe #44, Jordon Murdoch #48,

This is a terrible record. Ten years of bad drafting which makes we wonder, is there a way back? how many years will it take to rebuild this list that has a very limited core group of players to build around?

It is actually sickening when you see it there in front of you. Our drafting was not bad, it was absolutely pathetic. We don't have one champion on the list and only a couple of very good players. The rest battlers at best or below AFL standard. Terrible.

[Toorak 108]

The thing that I find strange is that it feels as though Melbourne have drafted better with their late picks. Therefore, I would have thought that a lack of funding would impact on these picks more as they are more speculative and require more research.

It would be interesting to compare prominent phantom drafts with real draft results and assess which have been more successful.

Maybe we should trade our first round draft pick for two second round picks.

[jumbo returns 6,741]

Maybe we should trade our first round draft pick for two second round picks.

Not as silly as some people think.....pressure's off and you can pick a gem!

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

Maybe we should trade our first round draft pick for two second round picks.

I remember Port offered Melbourne two picks (possibly 7 and 9) for pick two (Trengove). Would be interesting to see if they worked out better.

[Dr. Gonzo 24,219]

key to me - is stability

stability with admin

stability with coaching

Thank god we've got our coach and CEO locked into long term contracts then....

[Dr. Gonzo 24,219]

I remember Port offered Melbourne two picks (possibly 7 and 9) for pick two (Trengove). Would be interesting to see if they worked out better.

They took Butcher with one not sure on the other?

[Earl Hood 6,086]

I remember Port offered Melbourne two picks (possibly 7 and 9) for pick two (Trengove). Would be interesting to see if they worked out better.

Had a look at the 2009 draft, short answer is nup! A Shyte draft I am afraid. At least in the early picks. There was some talent later on.

Edited August 25, 2014 by Earl Hood

[dee-luded 2,959]

true - but the likes of Hill and Langford took and are are taking a few seasons to come through. The strong teams don't need to hurry their juniors through - we do.

& this is where we made the biggest mistake with our Youth policy rebuild; we threw out all our hard honest workers & kept the softer skilled ones, who weren't such good leaders, especially of the Non Negotiables.

Edited August 25, 2014 by dee-luded

[spirit of norm smith 16,459]

a horror movie ...

[dee-luded 2,959]

Blease over Zaharakis? Even when both players were at school footy, Zaharakis was monstering the AGSV, whereas Blease was running around like a cherry picker....

Nothing's changed.

Yep. I only saw them a couple of times and they were Both very good. But the game was played with more space back then, Blease was potentially more damaging in space, but Zaharakis was very nimble on his feet & a good carrier of the ball, but not as quick.

Zaharakis better thru traffic, Blease is a straight line runner atmo.