Fourth Quarter Leads

[titan_uranus 25,020]

I've been somewhat banging on about leading in the fourth quarter, but just to get a real sense of our improvement this year, these are the figures for the number of times each (bottom 10) team has been in front at some point in the fourth quarter. Bracketed numbers are number of wins in those games and number of losses.

• Richmond - 10 (7-3)
• Gold Coast - 10 (9-1)
• West Coast - 10 (7-3)
• Melbourne - 9 (4-5)
• Carlton - 9 (6-3)
• Adelaide - 9 (8-1)
• Bulldogs - 8 (6-2)
• Brisbane - 6 (4-2)
• GWS - 6 (4-2)
• St Kilda - 4 (4-0)

So we are the anomaly in this group. We're equal last for total wins, but equal third for leads held in the fourth. We've had 9 fourth quarter leads but we've only won 4 of them, making us the only side to have a sub-50% winning percentage in those games. We've created our chances much more than, for example, St Kilda, who've only had four games in which they've led in the last, but they've obviously taken their chances much better than we have.

To me, it's a sign of a few things. First, we play football that, over the course of the year, is more akin to a side finishing in the upper half of the bottom 10. Second, we haven't had the experience or leadership to get us over the line in those close games. Third, we've been relatively unlucky. Fourth, we haven't been good enough to get big enough leads to ensure that we can't be overrun (e.g. our biggest winning margin this year has been 23 points).

Statistics/numbers don't always say a lot, and this is just one thing to look at in 2014, but to me it signifies a real, tangible level of improvement and is something to really build on.

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

Absolutely - good post.

What it says to me is that, but for three or so games this year, we've genuinely been competitive.

That, in itself, represents a simply mammoth improvement.

[beelzebub 23,376]

what it says is we cant finish a game off invariably. Still havent got the cattle to run 4/4 of full on footy

[monoccular 17,429]

Could be interpreted as a huge improvement in overall effort but still lacking experience, poise and leadershipto finish it off.

And it is totally unrecognizable as compared to recent years.

A hell of an improvement despite not enough wins.

[beelzebub 23,376]

Could be interpreted as a huge improvement in overall effort but still lacking experience, poise and leadershipto finish it off.

And it is totally unrecognizable as compared to recent years.

A hell of an improvement despite not enough wins.

certainly an improvement

Curiously our wins have been where we've been able to stay in the game ...all the game.

As the season has worn on the ability to retain that composure at the knocking has dissipated. For some it means a need to improve fitness and endurance ( colloquially Tank) the others it means upgrading !!

Interesting though that we do stand out as much in comparison to the others in that list

[jnrmac 20,065]

good post

[Pennant St Dee 13,173]

Confirms what a lot of us have thought marked improvement this season despite currently only having 2 more wins. Last year there was only really the Richmond game I remember us being close to striking distance in the last quarter of the 22 we lost.

Good post

[Jara 1,153]

Interesting post. Thanks.

[jackaub 1,402]

I've been somewhat banging on about leading in the fourth quarter, but just to get a real sense of our improvement this year, these are the figures for the number of times each (bottom 10) team has been in front at some point in the fourth quarter. Bracketed numbers are number of wins in those games and number of losses.

• Richmond - 10 (7-3)
• Gold Coast - 10 (9-1)
• West Coast - 10 (7-3)
• Melbourne - 9 (4-5)
• Carlton - 9 (6-3)
• Adelaide - 9 (8-1)
• Bulldogs - 8 (6-2)
• Brisbane - 6 (4-2)
• GWS - 6 (4-2)
• St Kilda - 4 (4-0)

So we are the anomaly in this group. We're equal last for total wins, but equal third for leads held in the fourth. We've had 9 fourth quarter leads but we've only won 4 of them, making us the only side to have a sub-50% winning percentage in those games. We've created our chances much more than, for example, St Kilda, who've only had four games in which they've led in the last, but they've obviously taken their chances much better than we have.

To me, it's a sign of a few things. First, we play football that, over the course of the year, is more akin to a side finishing in the upper half of the bottom 10. Second, we haven't had the experience or leadership to get us over the line in those close games. Third, we've been relatively unlucky. Fourth, we haven't been good enough to get big enough leads to ensure that we can't be overrun (e.g. our biggest winning margin this year has been 23 points).

Statistics/numbers don't always say a lot, and this is just one thing to look at in 2014, but to me it signifies a real, tangible level of improvement and is something to really build on.

What the F#*k is "'Upper half of the bottom"So whats wrong with the leaders?Geesus!!

[1964nowMORE 489]

Makes for interesting reading, well done.

Does highlight if we took our chances and the a Saints hadn't there would be 3-4 games between us, not %.

[DeeMfc 621]

What the F#*k is "'Upper half of the bottom"So whats wrong with the leaders?Geesus!!

Comparing us to the top teams would only make the OP's point even more valid so what are you trying to say?

I'll bet if T_U did the comparisons with the top teams you would also come up with some bullshlt remark too.

There is only one thing worse than a troll. That's a troll that is one of your own.......

[Trisul 664]

Agree with the thrust of the OP. Surely the ordering below is more appropriate though?

• Gold Coast - 10 (9-1)
• Richmond - 10 (7-3)
• West Coast - 10 (7-3)
• Adelaide - 9 (8-1)
• Carlton - 9 (6-3)
• Melbourne - 9 (4-5)
• Bulldogs - 8 (6-2)
• Brisbane - 6 (4-2)
• GWS - 6 (4-2)
• St Kilda - 4 (4-0)

[Radar Detector 1,347]

It is interesting to note that after 18 completed rounds we sit 15th for "Quarters won" on 26 and ahead of St Kilda (19), GWS (19) and Brisbane (15). We won a total of 20 quarters last year so our average has gone from 0.9 quarters per game to 1.5 quarters per game.

IMO this is a fair reflection of both the improvement we have made and where we sit on the ladder. Others like the Bulldogs, Carlton, WCE and Richmond all have 30+ quarters won for the season.

Pushing up to 2.0 quarters per game generally places a team in finals contention so a similar improvement next year would make for an interesting season.

[JV7 2,351]

I've been somewhat banging on about leading in the fourth quarter, but just to get a real sense of our improvement this year, these are the figures for the number of times each (bottom 10) team has been in front at some point in the fourth quarter. Bracketed numbers are number of wins in those games and number of losses.

• Richmond - 10 (7-3)
• Gold Coast - 10 (9-1)
• West Coast - 10 (7-3)
• Melbourne - 9 (4-5)
• Carlton - 9 (6-3)
• Adelaide - 9 (8-1)
• Bulldogs - 8 (6-2)
• Brisbane - 6 (4-2)
• GWS - 6 (4-2)
• St Kilda - 4 (4-0)

So we are the anomaly in this group. We're equal last for total wins, but equal third for leads held in the fourth. We've had 9 fourth quarter leads but we've only won 4 of them, making us the only side to have a sub-50% winning percentage in those games. We've created our chances much more than, for example, St Kilda, who've only had four games in which they've led in the last, but they've obviously taken their chances much better than we have.

To me, it's a sign of a few things. First, we play football that, over the course of the year, is more akin to a side finishing in the upper half of the bottom 10. Second, we haven't had the experience or leadership to get us over the line in those close games. Third, we've been relatively unlucky. Fourth, we haven't been good enough to get big enough leads to ensure that we can't be overrun (e.g. our biggest winning margin this year has been 23 points).

Statistics/numbers don't always say a lot, and this is just one thing to look at in 2014, but to me it signifies a real, tangible level of improvement and is something to really build on.

I can only find 8 games where we lead in the last..

Rnd 4 Carlton - won

Rnd 7 adelaide - won

Rnd 8 bulldogs - lost

Rnd 9 Richmond- won

Rnd 11 Port - lost

Rnd 13 essendon- won

Rnd 15 bulldogs- lost

Rnd 18 port- lost

So we are 8 games 4 wins & 4 losses which drops us a couple of spots & equal with the dogs ?

[pantaloons 2,019]

I can only find 8 games where we lead in the last..

Rnd 4 Carlton - won

Rnd 7 adelaide - won

Rnd 8 bulldogs - lost

Rnd 9 Richmond- won

Rnd 11 Port - lost

Rnd 13 essendon- won

Rnd 15 bulldogs- lost

Rnd 18 port- lost

So we are 8 games 4 wins & 4 losses which drops us a couple of spots & equal with the dogs ?

I thought the same. I'm not sure if the OP meant the GWS game where we led late in the 3rd and then got within a point early in the 4th. We led very late in those four we lost after leading in the 4th quarter though. We led the Dogs with 5 minutes left at the G and 2 minutes left in the return match, and Port halfway through the last in the NT and then with 2 minutes left last week.

[The Song Formerly Known As 6,479]

winning is foreign to us. We are learning how to do it still, and what to do when in front.

[titan_uranus 25,020]

I can only find 8 games where we lead in the last..

Rnd 4 Carlton - won

Rnd 7 adelaide - won

Rnd 8 bulldogs - lost

Rnd 9 Richmond- won

Rnd 11 Port - lost

Rnd 13 essendon- won

Rnd 15 bulldogs- lost

Rnd 18 port- lost

So we are 8 games 4 wins & 4 losses which drops us a couple of spots & equal with the dogs ?

I thought the same. I'm not sure if the OP meant the GWS game where we led late in the 3rd and then got within a point early in the 4th. We led very late in those four we lost after leading in the 4th quarter though. We led the Dogs with 5 minutes left at the G and 2 minutes left in the return match, and Port halfway through the last in the NT and then with 2 minutes left last week.

Oh my bad, I thought we had a 1 point lead against GWS, but you're right, it was a 1 point deficit. Changes things slightly but still a valid analysis I think/hope.

[Pipefitter 2,159]

The great teams of the last 5 or so years have those players like Selwood, Hodge etc that can drag them over the line in those last quarters. We don't have that player yet. The question is, do any of our players have the potential to become one of those elite leaders?

[jnrmac 20,065]

From a Patrick Smith article :

"A mid-season review after round nine this season showed improvements small but compelling. Opposition clubs were scoring on average 59 points fewer a game against Melbourne than they did last year. And the mid-fielders were running on average 1.5km more a game than previously. "

Thats 10 goals a game improvement and a shiiteload of running by our mids.

[praha 11,240]

Saints, Dogs (both times), Port (both times), and even the Suns matches were games that got away simply because of a lack of refinement and class at pivotal moments. Last year it was a matter of lacking urgency and desire to win. This year it appears to be a matter of not KNOWING how to win.

[titan_uranus 25,020]

The refreshed list (so far):

• Richmond - 11 (8-3)
• Gold Coast - 11 (10-1)
• West Coast - 11 (8-3)
• Adelaide - 11 (9-2)
• Carlton - 9 (6-3)
• Melbourne - 9 (4-5)
• Bulldogs - 8 (6-2)
• Brisbane - 7 (5-2)
• GWS - 6 (4-2)
• St Kilda - 4 (4-0)

[Pates 9,660]

So we are now at 10 games leading during the last quarter with only 4 wins. The players also seem to be afraid of believing they can win, Roos said it best where we get into a winning position but expect to lose, self fulfilling prophecy. How the hell do we break that mindset?

For some reason, today I feel was the best example of us being beaten mentally. We had every reason to be up and about after the Bail goal, then that dog Merritt hit Pederson and the response was pitiful, Merritt kicked the next goal and we capitulated. So much of footy seems to be above the shoulders and our heads ain't right.

[Uncle Fester 2,848]

I dunno, but how did we break the mindset of us being a couple of goal down at half time last year becoming a 10+ goal loss? How did we break the 'never made a final in 23 years' hoodoo in 87 to come out and blow Nth and Sth off the park?

Coaches. Good coaches that tell home thruths without crushing the spirit of the players.

And good list management. Getting players that can understand and execute the message. That doesn't mean stars (as nice as that would be). It means players that can do their job week in and out, and that leaves the better players free to do the real magic.

Last year we were scratching our heads as to why bottom 4 teams smashed us. This year we are upset because we were in almost all games except for 10 or 15 minute periods where we lost our way. And we snatched a couple that we probably shouldn't have.

Roos never promised miracles. He promised building blocks. That's what we are getting. 2013 - dysfunctional. 2014 - quasi funtional. 2015 mostly functional... etc

I'm not ever happy seeing us lose, but I understand that we are a work in progress, and we are a long, long way from were we were this time last year.

[baysidedave 246]

what it says is we cant finish a game off invariably. Still havent got the cattle to run 4/4 of full on footy

got nothing to do with cattle, its all between the ears, don't know how to win or have such an inferiority complex that just can't keep going when we get in front.........think they don't deserve it or something??

[jnrmac 20,065]

got nothing to do with cattle, its all between the ears, don't know how to win or have such an inferiority complex that just can't keep going when we get in front.........think they don't deserve it or something??

Nah nothing to do with the cattle. AFter all cattle couldn't hit the side of a barn with a 5m handball either.....