The Viney pick - another plan to force him to the 2nd round

[binman 39,194]

Gold Coast will most likely end up on the bottom of the ladder come seasons end.

GWS have GC and us coming up.

I think GWS are the form side out of all 3, they only need to win 1 game and they should.

Whatch ya talkin' 'bout willis? No way GWS are the form side between the dees, them and GC. No way.

In round 13 we beat them by 78 points. Between 14-18 they were towelled up by between 15-20 goals (their lowest thrashing in this period was 94 points and their highest loss was 120 points!)

Last round they beat Port but that club has very quickly devolved into a basket case and just had their 186 moment. Total breakdown.

In those rounds (14-18) GC copped a couple of big losses (Sydney and WC), pushed Geelong and could have won (going down by only 14 points), beat Richmond and just lost to Brisbane (in a game they should have won).

We beat GC last round and GWS round 13. Between rounds 14-18 we lost to Brisbane by 61 points, Richmond by 23 points, Freo by 34 points, Port by 28 points (admittedly a shocking loss) and North by 54 points (again a bad loss). Not great but no 15-20 goal losses and 3 of those clubs were/are pushing for top 8 and had a big incentive to bury us.

GC will easily beat GWS and we will hammer them.

GWS will finish bottom, mark my words.

Edit: Just saw ouchers post re GWS form, could have saved myself the trouble. Any way point stands

Edited August 7, 2012 by binman

[The Chazz 4,077]

Of course the first comparison re height is going to be Mitchell.....so what

I'm trying to take off the rose coloured glasses, be totally objective and try to position him taking into account any risk factors

His height, esp when moving up to senior level is a risk factor

His strength and hard at it attitude will not be such a standout feature at the top level

His speed is not in the outstanding category. OK it may be satisfactory but I still think it a factor when trying to rank him

I still think he is closer to a 10 rather than a 5 based on these risk factors

Of course I hope he ends up the top gun over time for obvious reasons

Ranking an under 18 year player is fraught with guesswork and crystal balling and is only a rough guide on how the player turns out eventually

They are after all still just kids

Don't take it personal DC, RPFC has some serious manlove for Jack.

RP - the call that Jack will be in our top 5 midfielders is somewhat premature evaluation don't you think? I get the qualities that Jack has, I get that he has the potential to be a star, but when he signs his name on the contract he automatically becomes a Top 5 mid for the Club wothout even playing a game? Wow.

[rpfc 27,657]

Don't take it personal DC, RPFC has some serious manlove for Jack.

RP - the call that Jack will be in our top 5 midfielders is somewhat premature evaluation don't you think? I get the qualities that Jack has, I get that he has the potential to be a star, but when he signs his name on the contract he automatically becomes a Top 5 mid for the Club wothout even playing a game? Wow.

Give me 5 blokes ahead of him on our list?

[rpfc 27,657]

Of course the first comparison re height is going to be Mitchell.....so what

I'm trying to take off the rose coloured glasses, be totally objective and try to position him taking into account any risk factors

His height, esp when moving up to senior level is a risk factor

His strength and hard at it attitude will not be such a standout feature at the top level

His speed is not in the outstanding category. OK it may be satisfactory but I still think it a factor when trying to rank him

I still think he is closer to a 10 rather than a 5 based on these risk factors

Of course I hope he ends up the top gun over time for obvious reasons

Ranking an under 18 year player is fraught with guesswork and crystal balling and is only a rough guide on how the player turns out eventually

They are after all still just kids

This is where we are in vehement agreement.

It is an inexact science selecting teenagers and attempting to ponder what they will be like, how their body will change over time, etc.

His intangibles are the reason I want him to be a Demon.

His hardness and desire may be common place in the AFL, but not at our club.

I rarely get into arguments over who to pick in the draft (aside from No Ruckmen in the First 5 Picks Rule ©) but this kid is going to have an effect on the AFL club he goes to and we need that.

It outweighs whatever immeasurable and unquantifiable 'overpayment' we would make.

Edited August 7, 2012 by rpfc

[DemonWA 3,571]

I agree rpfc

And it has been covered to death, but i truly believe if Viney doesn’t end up as a demon it will my era's equivalent to the norm smith sacking. It would haunt the club for decades.

[Dr. Mubutu 694]

I don't understand all these qualms about his height.

As an in-and-under midfielder, surely it's better to be a little smaller?

- Lower centre of gravity; harder to tackle

- Lower ball drop; less time to be pushed off a kick

- Able to get into smaller spaces....

Sure, these things may seem minuscule, but we are constantly being told that AFL is a game of 1%ers.......wouldn't you, then, want as many of them on your side as possible?

And realistically, are we really hoping for him to take a bevy of contested marks? If anyone is: YOU'RE DOING IT WRONG.

[rjay 24,099]

I would prefer to ensure Viney in the second round by engineering surreptitious deals with GC and GWS.

This bluffing stuff is naive and I if we did take Viney at 3 it would effectively be at 4 as we have the next pick.

Virtually no-one would spurn the tough-as-nails, instantly top 5 midfielder at the club, son of a great because he was worth Pick 5 but not Pick 4.

We take him where we get him. Funny thing, Selwood not elite pace, not elite kick, but a thirst for the contest and tough as nails. Where would you take him now?

Viney is the toughest kid going around and he can play.

The story I hear from the local boxing coach who also trains another AFL club is that Viney is the toughest bloke he has ever trained, we loose nothing picking him up early in the draft. Would be great if we could get him in the second round but it's probably just not going to happen.

[Redleg 38,191]

There is really very little benefit for a club with first or second pick to risk that pick for a player below that level. It would really have to be vindictiveness. Sheedy might be, but Gubby Allen and Silvagni have no reason to be and neither does GC. It might be different if Daniher was our father/son selection.

Edited August 8, 2012 by Redleg

[Deeoldfart 7,830]

To my evaluation we have pick 3+4+12+Viney all sewn up, which is a very tidy draft day indeed. Better than any of our previous 'windfalls' even Sculgove. I don't get the problem?

GWS/GC are the only things in our way, ask yourself - what is their incentive? If you think they are going to let some desire to 'screw us over' you are thinking way too self-centredly! They will do what is in their best interests like every other club!

We will bluff and say we are not going to take him with 3. Everyone will know it is a bluff, but they cannot call it. If they do, they are forced to 'take unders' for their pick 1/2 with a pick 5-10. Why would they do that? Even if they truly rated Viney as a pick 1/2, or they do indeed just want to screw us, they would know they are taking a kid that will almost definitely do a scully-like ship-jump 2 years later. It makes absolutely no sense. Besides, by 'screwing' us, all they do is put themselves 5-10th in the draft order (Viney's worth), and everyone ahead of them rolls ahead one spot! So even if that happens, we will use pick 3 on the player that is actually worth pick 2, since somebody 'wasted' their pick on Viney. all the other clubs with 5-10 picks will say thanks very much for upgrading us a pick.

If our bluff was called it would be a truly idiotic move by the club that does it, and it won't happen.

Make no mistake, if I was Todd Viney i'd be putting the issue completely to bed by having a quiet word with the lad, suggesting he take his foot off the gas for the rest of the year so that the idea a pick 1 or 2 will be used on him is out of the question. Tanking? You bet.

I agree 100% with your first four paras C&B, but I disagree 100% with your last.

[Theo 263]

Another factor that could emerge is the possibiity of winning 2 more games i.e. GWS and either Adelaide or Freo.

The Western Bulldogs could easily lose all of their remaining games against the tigers, swans, cats and Lions. That would leave us on equal points and possibly a higher percentage. They could then nominate JV.

I will be barracking for the Bulldogs this week. If the Dogs lose this week I just wonder if the Club would be too upset about losing to GWS the following week.

[Clark_Kent 315]

Another factor that could emerge is the possibiity of winning 2 more games i.e. GWS and either Adelaide or Freo.

The Western Bulldogs could easily lose all of their remaining games against the tigers, swans, cats and Lions. That would leave us on equal points and possibly a higher percentage. They could then nominate JV.

I will be barracking for the Bulldogs this week. If the Dogs lose this week I just wonder if the Club would be too upset about losing to GWS the following week.

There is no way we will beat any of Saints, Freo or Adelaide. They all have way too much to play for

and our injury list is growing and growing.

I'm not even 100% certain we will beat GWS over there we don't travel well and with our injuries it's

getting harder.

[daisycutter 28,709]

I don't understand all these qualms about his height.

As an in-and-under midfielder, surely it's better to be a little smaller?

- Lower centre of gravity; harder to tackle

- Lower ball drop; less time to be pushed off a kick

- Able to get into smaller spaces....

Sure, these things may seem minuscule, but we are constantly being told that AFL is a game of 1%ers.......wouldn't you, then, want as many of them on your side as possible?

And realistically, are we really hoping for him to take a bevy of contested marks? If anyone is: YOU'RE DOING IT WRONG.

The 'qualms' over his height were not meant to mean he would/would-not be a gun

They were simply being used as risk factors in an exercise to rank his position in the ND

No need for anyone to get their knickers in a knot

In fact the worse his draft ranking the more likely GWS/GCS will pass on him in the FS draft

[rpfc 27,657]

Give me 5 blokes ahead of him on our list?

Enough waiting, challenge accepted you arrogant, yet classicly handsome, bastard!

Jones, Trengove, Grimes...er...Moloney?.... and...maybe....possibly...one of the Jordan's?

Michael?

Viney would walk into our starting midfield such is the state of our very honest midfield.

[Nascent 7,552]

Enough waiting, challenge accepted you arrogant, yet classicly handsome, bastard!

Are you sure your facial features aren't too deep set to be considered classically handsome?

[Ouch! 2,092]

Enough waiting, challenge accepted you arrogant, yet classicly handsome, bastard!

Jones, Trengove, Grimes...er...Moloney?.... and...maybe....possibly...one of the Jordan's?

Michael?

Viney would walk into our starting midfield such is the state of our very honest midfield.

I'll bite .... but I am basing it on what I predict will be our midfield group with another preseason behind it.

Jones, Trengove, Grimes, Moloney, Howe, Sylvia, McKenzie. Thats 7 players I would feel fairly safe putting forward.

With another preseason I'd expect more from Gysberts and Blease in terms of developing an engine.

However, with that being said, We need far more than 5 midfielders and I think Viney would be in our starting team come round 1 next year. Lets just stop trying to build him up to be the messiah...after the expectations on Scully & Watts in their first few years, I can do without the hype. I have no doubt he will be a great addition to the club, lets give him some time.

A player like Wines, Toumas etc if we managed to snare one of these would be similarly equipped to play AFL straight up, and why would they be any less capable than Viney?

But keep the flames of the man-crush burning RP!

[Moonshadow 16,468]

Interesting case would be if (god forbid) we lose to GWS and then the Giants beat both the Suns and us...

???

Are we playing GWS twice in the remaining rounds?

[monoccular 16,509]

Talks about his speed quite a bit. Only weaknesses seem to be height and penetration kicking. The stuff about leadership, attack on the ball, culture changer. This is what we need. Give me a son of a club legend, with these type of non-statistic based qualities over a 2% better selection as a player.

BHis dad learned to kick after a few very ordinary years (in that skill respect only).

[monoccular 16,509]

Another factor that could emerge is the possibiity of winning 2 more games i.e. GWS and either Adelaide or Freo.

The Western Bulldogs could easily lose all of their remaining games against the tigers, swans, cats and Lions. That would leave us on equal points and possibly a higher percentage. They could then nominate JV.

I will be barracking for the Bulldogs this week. If the Dogs lose this week I just wonder if the Club would be too upset about losing to GWS the following week.

Of curse they would be very upset and disappointed, and nobody should even suggest otherwise (other than say someone with the credibility of Brock McLean), but it is possible that we may lack the live cattle to do the job.

[Cheesecake 92]

We all have man-love for Viney (it's just a matter of degree), and we all want to see him on our primary list next season. The difference is that some of us want to take him no matter what and others are happy to take a 2nd round or bust approach.

So .. in an (probably vain) effort to get the thread back on to its original course ...

1> Whilst the ladder is not set in stone, we are very likely to finish 16th. The wooden spoon could go to either way, most likely to the loser of the upcoming GC v GWS clash.

2> It is very high risk for the team with the number 1 pick to nominate Viney (they could hand Lachie Whitfield to pick 2). They will most likely not nominate him.

3> The team with the number 2 pick will be very keen for them to nominate JV, and us to default on him, because that means that they will get Lachie.

4> There a several drafts, including GWS's mini-draft, in which we might be able to make deals in (yes, they are after the F-S draft, but we may be able to make gentlemen's agreements beforehand).

C'mon all you lovers of game theory, given these rules (plus any others you think relevant), can we come up with a solution that either guarantees, or dramatically increases the chance of, us getting Viney in the 2nd round? One for GWS finishing last and/or one for GC finishing last. Or one that works for both.

Edited August 8, 2012 by Cheesecake

[Moonshadow 16,468]

C'mon all you lovers of game theory, given these rules (plus any others you think relevant), can we come up with a solution that either guarantees, or dramatically increases the chance of, us getting Viney in the 2nd round? One for GWS finishing last and/or one for GC finishing last. Or one that works for both.

I'm guessing (read: hoping) that Viney, Harrington, et al have workshopped this extensively and have a strategy worked out

I may get canned for this, but do we want to be giving away the best JV plans by putting them in the public domain for GWS, GC and Dimwitreou to see?

[rpfc 27,657]

Jones, Trengove, Grimes, Moloney, Howe, Sylvia, McKenzie. Thats 7 players I would feel fairly safe putting forward.

With another preseason I'd expect more from Gysberts and Blease in terms of developing an engine.

Forget Gys and Blease - Viney is well ahead of them.

Howe and Sylvia are predominantly forwards at this stage and while I can see Howe being a midfielder in 2013 and onwards (Ryan O'Keefe please?) Viney will have him next year pretty well covered as a midfielder.

McKenzie is an interesting one and the only possibility to push Viney out of the top 5, assuming Moloney is fit, firing, signed up, and in a good head space (which is quite a bit of assuming).

I still would rate Viney in the top 5 in Rd 1, 2013.

[Jesse Christ 2,884]

We all have man-love for Viney (it's just a matter of degree), and we all want to see him on our primary list next season. The difference is that some of us want to take him no matter what and others are happy to take a 2nd round or bust approach.

Luckily for all of us the MFC is in the former camp.

.

4> There a several drafts, including GWS's mini-draft, in which we might be able to make deals in (yes, they are after the F-S draft, but we may be able to make gentlemen's agreements beforehand).

How's this for game theory? Promise them everything but the kitchen sink and then reneg. "What deal? Are you accusing us of draft tampering? Prove it.."

I still would rate Viney in the top 5 in Rd 1, 2013.

I'm tipping Viney will take the number 1 tag come round 2, 2013

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

C'mon all you lovers of game theory, given these rules (plus any others you think relevant), can we come up with a solution that either guarantees, or dramatically increases the chance of, us getting Viney in the 2nd round? One for GWS finishing last and/or one for GC finishing last. Or one that works for both.

i'm obviously missing something, cos as per my earlier post, i agree with your rules and t0 me they spell game-set-match for us getting viney at pick23, without doing anything but an obvious, yet uncalleable bluff that we will pass on him at 3 if forced to

[Ouch! 2,092]

Forget Gys and Blease - Viney is well ahead of them.

Howe and Sylvia are predominantly forwards at this stage and while I can see Howe being a midfielder in 2013 and onwards (Ryan O'Keefe please?) Viney will have him next year pretty well covered as a midfielder.

McKenzie is an interesting one and the only possibility to push Viney out of the top 5, assuming Moloney is fit, firing, signed up, and in a good head space (which is quite a bit of assuming).

I still would rate Viney in the top 5 in Rd 1, 2013.

Howe and Sylvia are currently up forward because we basically don't have anyone else. Neeld wants to get Howe in the middle, and similar I think for Sylvia.

Even if we take Moloney out, I still think after the preseason next year you are putting too much of an expectation onto Viney to assume he would be a start up top 5.

BTW...I could have said Boak and or Wellingham in the top 5..... now THAT is making assumptions!

[Robbie57 1,996]

I have been looking at the 3 sides at the bottom GC,GWS and us.

I think GWS will win this w/e due to the high number of injuries at GC which will leave

them on the same amount of wins as us.

This would then set up a game between us and GWS as the one that determines who finishes

17th and 16th. With our injury list growing and the likely hood we may put a few players in the sheds

for the remainder of the year we are no certainty to win that one.

http://www.smh.com.a...0808-23usb.html

Whilst it is shaping up as a battle of the injury lists it is likely GWS will be just as depleted at the weekend. and are not as experienced as GC

GWS and GC are not going to risk us saying "no he not worth it", that is a very risky proposition.

They would gladly take Daniher at 2 so no risk in nominating him for them. Viney is a very different matter.

GC is the only threat and I suspect at the end of the day they will play it safe.

Edited August 9, 2012 by Robbie57