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He can watch Maxy hold up the cup on 30 September on TV from Margaret River.

He was performing, he was just having a sook about being a defender. He wanted the limelight of a forward, but Paul Roos knew he was a defender. Howey thought he'd jump ship and win a flag with the Pies as a forward, and take swipes as our club along the way. The club who plucked him from a life of being a tradie in Tassie no less. Ungrateful [censored]. Hope he never sees success.

I'm on record saying this trade would only be a success if Melbourne wins a flag with Brodie at the club and I'm continuing with that line. If we win the flag this year with Max making a solid contribution because he's playing fit in contrast with last year, then I'll consider the trade a success even if Brodie doesn't play for the rest of the year and gets traded at the end. Flags are hard to win and take a lot of ingredients.

He ( Howe ) has unfortunately become one of my least liked players. He feels this need to have a go at his old club, who got him out of Tassie and changed his whole life. Maybe it's time to give it a rest Jeremy.

I reckon the 'we lose in wet weather' is being overplayed on here. I can't recall all the wet weather games we have lost this year but the ones that stand out are vs Ess- we stuffed up our preparation and travel. vs GWS - kicking for goal was atrocious. A rare mistake by Lever allowed Kelly to kick a freak 60m goal just before the siren. vs Port - we nearly won on one good quarter of football with Oliver playing it out injured. They aren't excuse. We lost. We wear it. But I'd be careful of extrapolating that to the stress levels on here about it raining on Thursday night. Anyway, what is a few mm of rain at the G which has excellent drainage and with a mild wind blowing during the day/evening. If it is damp it will favour us. Pies rely on fast, slick ball movement. We do not. Whatever the conditions we have this.

With a bit of luck, KISS will be the only ones at the MCG on Grand Final Day wearing black and white face paint.

I read somewhere today that they haven't played a wet weather game all season. No idea if that's accurate and CBF fact checking. But happy to run with it. Also this is my first post on Demonland - hello! [Edit]: If it's true that the filth haven't played a wet weather game this year - I think that bodes well for us, regardless of our W/L record in greasy conditions this year. When there are tired bodies at the start of the 4th quarter and our bulls are continuing to throw their weight around - the cream will rise to the top

When we emigrated here I was enrolled at our nearest high school, Cleeland High in Dandenong. Virtually every kid followed Collingwood and had a duffle coat with either Daicos, Moore or Kink on the back. They also all loved an American glam rock band called Kiss. I'd heard of neither and took an instant dislike to both.

Not really sure why Howe has a hatred or comments on the Dee's for. We gave him a wildcard shot basically at an AFL career, yes it wouldn't have been easy but you never bite the hand that feeds you. IIRC, he left Melbourne as he wanted to play forward and win a flag. He's gone to Pies and got neither, so it's a reflection of his own bitterness perhaps. Dee's winning another flag would add lots more salt hehe

more to play for?? loser will likely face the Blues in the G and then the Lions at the Gabba Winner has a week off and Port at home. Both teams have exactly the same on the line

The thought of listening to those nuffy fans chant Collingwood as they stare down a win makes me want to throw up. Do not let that happen Dees. I beg of you. Win and win well!

On the AFL website, under full replays for Rd13 Melbourne vs Collingwood, I really enjoy watching the video clip 44:50-46:30. Darcy Moore was defending against Fritsch, who managed to mark the ball and score his second goal. Between 46:20-46:30, the camera angle was excellent, and the slow motion showed how Fritsch outmaneuvered Moore step by step. Moore is 2.03m and 100 kg, while Fritsch is 1.88m and 84 kg. It’s just fantastic!

Some random reflections on above: Oppo watch The Pies high ranking in points per I50s is reflection of their method - really fast transition from the back half disrupts their opponents ability to get their zone set and creates space inside 50, leading lanes for their forwards and more one on ones and therefore 'efficiency' inside 50 When on, the Pies also run in waves and get players ahead of the ball and create free options inside 50 - again this supports high conversion of inside 50s to scores Conversely our low ranking for points per I50s is reflection of a key element of our method - win time in forward half, and when we cant trap it inside 50 or score set up a wall, win it back and a get a reentry When we do we are invariably kicking into a super congested forward area with 30 plus player squeezed inside 50 and therefore we are not as 'efficient' It's huge worry for the pies that their ability to get inside 50 and stopping oppos score once in inside 50 has fallen away so dramatically in the last 5 weeks - same goes for the CP numbers In fact their drop off is really clear in the table - compare their season ranking to their ranking for the last 5 games - in all but one stat (points scored inside 50) they really fall away - we drop a bit too, but not by much and improve our i50 ranking The Pies numbers form the last 5 games are hugely inflated by their win over the bombers, in particular their scores per inside 50 - that was just a ridiculous low pressure game and the bombers were hopeless in terms of their defensive running allowing the Pies just to waltz it down the ground at will Take that game out and their numbers are even more alarming Keys to the game Contest and deefence have bene the buzz words of late in terms describing our game and you've nailed that with the the key stats i'd add it is critical we win the inside 50 diff, time in forward half and scores from turnover differential metrics I reckon you've nailed it DD on what i consider to the the critical factor - we are running out games better. it is just so easy to see and so different to where we were at last year - and the problem for the pies is that there is simply no way to turn that around at this point in the season. The fitness levels are the fitness levels The fitness issue is key in any game, but particularly in this one as the Pies optimal game plan is but on super fitness levels and their winning run built on being 'stronger for longer' than their opponents - but they have lost that relative advantage completely, partic over us The other data that supper the theory we are really fit and close to our optimal shape is our pressure numbers in the last quarters have remained high - for example we had close to season high rating of 214 in the last quarter against the blues I don't know where the pies sit on that front, but i'll bet London to a brisk that in the last 6 weeks their pressure ratings falls away late in quarters and in the last quarter The last theirs of the Pies season looks so similar to ours last year - injuries to key players (and i'll bey we hear post season about players carrying injuries), struggling to run out games and the method looking diff On the method looking different an example is that rather than control the tempo early doors, we looked to jump the oppo last year and go out really hard and then hang on. When playing their best footy the Pies dominate the first and last quarters, which isn't happening atm The other similarity is how tough their run has been with so many taxing games late in the season And interestingly we both had big wins in the last game of the season - us against the Lions and the Pies over the Bombers I hoped against hope the Lions win was a sign we were back to our best fitness wise, but it was a mirage as we completely ran out of puff in the last quarters of both finals And in hindsight the signs were there - we scored 13 first half goals , but could only manage 5 in the second half I'm sure the Pies fans are hoping their dominant win over the bombers is a sign they are up and running, but the score line is eerily similar to ours against the lions In that game the Pies blitzed in the first half, scoring 12 goals but could only manage 4 goals in the second half

Super excited and terrifyingly nervous for the game this Thu. So much hinges on this, but I think we're in a very good spot. Here's a preview from my perspective: Oppo watch The Pies are the best attacking team in the league over the season as well as over last 5 rounds when considering how well they convert I50s to points. Over the season, they have also been reasonably strong in winning the I50 differential (6th) and preventing opposition teams scoring once they get it inside 50 (4th). However, these two areas have fallen away markedly in the last 5 weeks to 12th and 13th respectively, not to mention their contested possession game dropping from a middling 9th to a struggling 15th. Keys to the game The first key to the game will be the contest: the Dees won this by 19 in their 4 point win over the Pies in Round 13, leading to a solid I50 differential of 10. This meant we didn't have to be awesome in attack and prevented our defence from being under too much pressure. The second key is our defence: we restricted the Pies to 1.27 points per I50 entry (one of their lowest for the year) when they average 1.76 over the season). This comes down to holding our structure in defending their ball movement and it will be interesting to see if we employ the same press up method to disrupt their ball movement as we did earlier in the year. A summary of key stats (green highlight = Dees advantage, no highlight = Pies advantage). Dees have the advantage 5 to 1 both across the season and over the last 5 games. Another interesting element to this game is our ability to run out games. We should be at our endurance peak now and we probably weren't against the Pies in Rd 13 (losing the last quarter by 2, altough poor accuracy didn't help 2.7 to 3.3). The Pies don't seem to be running out games as well as they were earlier in the season: Dees' last 5 4th quarter margins (rounds 20 to 24): +28, +4, -4, +14, +25 (average of +13, won 4, lost 1) Pies' last 5 4th quarter margins (rounds 20 to 24): +2, -6, -16, -12, +5 (average of -5, won 2, lost 3). A different and objective view of what must go right for the Dees to win in the finals (forward line performance) can be found here: https://theshinboner.com/2023/09/01/2023-afl-finals-dossier-melbourne-demons-shinboner-analysis/ What are others' thoughts?

Hoyney from Champion Data has the game 55/45 Melbournes way. Says the wet doesn’t favour any specific team. Also finals doesn’t favour any specific team (as both styles / brands) are suitable and don’t rely on uncontested, or high kick mark, which is the two biggest aspect which have a statistically significant drop from H&A to Finals. As others have mentioned Salem is really down in form, in particular ball use. Gets enough of it, just hasn’t been using it well. Expecting this to change in a finals series is a bit wishful thinking. On the other hand Rivers is the 6th best kick in the AFL - so we do have a great kick in our team! - and he suggested that one of the smaller CFC forwards needs to make him accountable. No doubt he will get targeted. Another interesting fact was Contested Marking was overrated , doesn’t account for too many goals but it is spectacle. Hoyne is a champion data employee has does most of his analysis through stats and data, which is one way to analyse a game.

I plan on being so loud on Thursday. I'm normally pretty reserved but we have to be LOUD.

This is a powerful analysis @binman! And yes, there is a clear chasm betwixt Mr. Loaf and KISS on many fronts. As I mentioned, I saw them on that 2019 tour. And the show was….let’s just say their fans loved it. But as a full-time musician living in this country, I am once again hyper-disgusted by the choice, as I was with Sting, Lionel Ritchie, Robbie Williams (who for some vague reason will always remind me of former Geelong mayor, Darren Lyons) and any other overseas act. Not withstanding, the obvious reasons why (that we should be elevating local talent), but also because there is something very difficult to stomach about watching an overseas entertainer do their thing at an event that they have no understanding of, or even a vague relationship with at all. As for KISS, I could also go into the reasons why the AFL should not be putting any money into Gene Simmons’ bank account whatsoever - the guy is a colossal a$$hole - but let’s not. Given Robbie Williams was paid over $1m to play last year, one can assume the AFL is sending even more into an overseas bank account this year, and really, to what end? There are dozens and dozens of brilliant acts in this country who would happily do the gig for 1/20th of that fee, and far better represent what the entire day is all about. And the AFL can spend the leftover cash on a new score review system.

It’s amazing that geniuses at Fremantle were able to see the potential in a Pick 3, Rising Star winning Premiership player.

Anyone else prepared to put a stake in the ground for the finals series? My predictions: QF and EF Finals. Week 1. QF 1: Collingwood vs Melbourne: Dees will win due to greater endurance, better defence and are not a ‘one trick pony’ QF 2: Brisbane vs Port Adelaide: Brisbane to win. Home ground advantage and Port’s defence is sus. EF 1: Carlton vs Sydney: Sydney to win. Carlton played lazy football in round 24. Too much hubris and seemed satisfied to make finals. Allowed a potential finals threat run all over them. EF 2: St Kilda vs GWS: GWS to win. Looks like a team on a mission. Will miss Toby Bedford. Have a first class midfield and multiple avenues to goal. Would love to see Carlton eliminated and shut up the sheep like commentators!! Semi -Finals. Week 2: Port Adelaide vs Sydney: A 50/50 game. Tipping Port, just! So much talent and more experience. Collingwood vs GWS: GWS capable of upset. And wouldn’t that be sweet!!! But alas Pies will probably get it done. Preliminary Finals. Week 3: Melbourne vs Port Adelaide. A demon win. Onour turf this time!! Lions vs Collingwood: Lions (because I'm not sure we can beat Coll 3 times in a row). Grand Final: Demons vs Lions: Demons!! 🏆 + 13

It's interesting though that so far we haven't missed a beat without him and they haven't improved with him.

The conditions won't suit them, that's for sure. I honestly think our 5-6 wet games this year are a blessing. We'll know what to expect and how to get it done, learning from our mistakes from last time.

Really annoying that Jeremy Howe feels the need to chip in with [censored] commentary about how we have mistreated his mate Brodie I would love nothing more than someone running through him (in a fair but brutal fashion) during the QF

It's pretty clear Brodie Grundy is off to greener AFL pastures in the trade period. We need a ready made ruck replacement. Max will be 32 next season and can't be expected to ruck solo the whole season. As suggested to me by @grazman, Matt Flynn is UFA at GWS this year, he won't cost us anything in draft picks, only salary and we just need to convince him to come across. A true mature ruck-forward would be nice but they don't grow on trees.

Yep shout out to McVee, JVR and Chin too who will all play their first ever final. At the G. In front of 95,000 insane fans. No biggie.

0% chance they drop Bowey. One of the few elite ball users in our side.

Well done GWS a joke of a suspension.

It's now a running joke with my coworkers how AFL mad I am - but the one other Melbournian in the Sydney office with me, he sees it as completely normal! 10 hour train ride down on Wednesday night, this whole week feels like wading through treacle for the good part.

Yeah, I didn't like how that was written. He played all the roles Longmuir outlined for him when with us and tbh I've not seen much different in his time at Freo, except that he replaced Darcy for an extended time. It plays down that he just wanted to go home. Anyway he is gone. We move on and with a bit of luck we will be this year's premiers and he won't be!!

He 100% copied me. Got a Cavoodle and named him Bear. My Bear is way cuter tho and a Melbourne supporter 😏

I was told by as strong a source as you can imagine that Jackson had told people at our club in early June 2022 that he was going to re-sign. This meeting at Crown must have been what changed everything.

We get one on Thursday night

Listening to Jono Brown and Buckley having a crack at Garry Lyon over whether the Melbourne fans will turn up on Thursday on Fox Footy makes me wanna throw up. What is with these morons. The game is a sellout! Have they any idea? This myth about us having small crowds has been dispelled by stats again this year. Pizz of Bucks and Brown. Then having Lyon bow to there jibes and urge Dees fans to show up, just get stuffed

Three changes is too destabilising for mine. I thought Turner was actually pretty good and I don’t really see any Collingwood forward getting a hold of him. If Cox wasn’t playing you could take out Turner and put Hibberd in which could give coverage on Elliott. I wouldn’t be surprised if Goody had Hibbo as sub as a back up on Elliott In: Hibberd (Sub), Tmac Out: Laurie (Sub), Melksham

I’ve gotta say, TMac looks fit. The perfect blend of muscle and svelt.

There’s a bit of revisionism happening around Jackson this year. That he made the all Australian squad is frankly laughable. He played 5-6 good games. He’s going to be a good player, but his form this year was nowhere near what they paid for him. It’s odd that it’s being portrayed that his value is already equal to his current output. I still think Freo will have trouble with him and Darcy. Let’s see what happens over the next few years, but they both play their best footy as the number one ruck. Luke looked a lot better with no Darcy.

Nothing really, it was a dumb choice. Rivers was more deserving.

Good point - it’s also worth noting how Goodwin is willing to risk losing individual games, for the betterment of the season. In some of the wet games (particularly when we lost), there was commitment to continuing to play a certain way in the hope that consistency would pay off in the long run. Now that we’re in the finals and the result is all that matters, the FD will have plans to enact should it get wet.

It sure does. This article makes it seem like Goody/coaches pigeonholed him and didn't have the belief that Longmuir did. He was made our primary ruck in the second half of a grand final over our captain and greatest ever ruckman (Sorry Jim).

Oh the salty curmudgeon has reappeared. Ok I held a Tribunal hearing and in typical AFL fashion, went against the evidence and made up a decision. I have banned my self for 7 minutes. I will not appeal, as Carlton lawyers are unavailable.

is not going to be, layzie she is

You’ll like the story about Howe in todays Age then Jaded. Him waffling on about how he wasn’t getting the best out of himself at Melbourne and needed a change. He left us for better money at a bigger club. He left us when we were struggling - after we plucked him from obscurity and gave him every opportunity. He can dress it up however he wants, but we all know the truth.

Here are the AFL and Melb's average tackles and contested possessions per game for the past three H/A seasons: 2023 AFL Tackles 61.8 Melb 61.7 AFL Cont.poss 136 Melb 145.7 2022 AFL Tackles 58.3 Melb 56.5 AFL Cont.poss 136.9 Melb 148.4 2021 AFL Tackles 57.4 Melb 62.2 AFL Cont.poss 136 Melb 148.6 Over these three years, Melb consistently had the highest contested possessions. Our tackling was in the mid-range this year(better than last year), but we had two recent high numbers: 88 tackles against Carl in Round 22 (Carl 87), and 79 tackles against Syd in Round 24 (Syd 76). In the Sydney game, Viney, ANB and Mills(Syd) each made 12 tackles, the highest individual number among all the games in Round 24. I reckon ANB has never laid so many tackles in a single game before(his average tackles per game was 4.7 this year). He is in great form.

Most relevant form line I have ever seen to suit my emotional agenda. 🙌

Underweight key forward who does not have senior level running ability plays every game of the year (the most of any player in the VFL) and struggles in a final where his team is pummeled. Is that the issue? Am I getting that right? I think people significantly undervalue the difference between a professional AFL environment and schoolboy football, and the toll that takes on your body over a long season. This is particularly true for a player that was nowhere near senior running ability when he came to the club and the amount of stress that his body will be going through to adapt to the changes in workload. You could see in previous games that he was running on fumes at the end of a long season, as you can for a few other young players.

Kynan Brown put in a mammoth performance yesterday in their wildcard round against Northern Knights. 25 disposals, 5 tackles, 4 marks and kicked 5.2 for the day. We have a beauty on our hands I reckon.

One thing we know from Jackson and Pickett is that the club will take the players it needs and rate. Both Jackson and Pickett were valued way behind the picks they were taken. We copped heat for our picks because "no one takes a ruckman at 3" and pickett was ranked as low a 30 by a few. Taylor and Lamb will be all over this and we will get good players regardless of where others rank them.

Has Howe done a "No duck No Dinner" ?

It's superb logic The AFL sanctioned media and the ex players bang on about how ruthless the sport is, how lucky you need to be , and that it's incredibly tough to win a flag. And then you're 'lucky' if you win just the one... The media's propensity to deliver two contrasting narratives about the same subject, as we see in the AFL, is not an arbitrary act but a clever tactic rooted in our evolutionary biology and psychological inclinations. From an evolutionary standpoint, humans are wired to respond to stimuli that provoke strong emotions, be it fear, joy, anger, or surprise. Such emotions historically helped our ancestors navigate threats and opportunities in their environment, ensuring their survival. In the modern context, media capitalizes on this by presenting polarized views, aiming to evoke the strongest reactions and ensuring higher engagement with their content. This is also supported by schema therapy, which suggests that individuals develop schemas or cognitive structures based on their past experiences. When the media makes a hyperbolic statement that challenges an individual's deeply held schema about their club or any other beloved subject, the individual is naturally inclined to react. If the media claims that the sport is ruthlessly challenging, yet simultaneously undermines the effort it takes to win a premiership by suggesting it's just "luck", it taps into fans' emotions, compelling them to engage, discuss, and ultimately, stay invested in the AFL 'product'. You are the product, you pay their wages.

I want to know, Collingwood, have you ever seen the rain?

This is the most bizarre stat… collingwood haven’t played in the rain in any of their 23 games this year. Melbourne have played 6 games in the wet. How can a side go all year and avoid the rain? in any case, Thursday night might be the first time all year collingwood have played with a greasy football.