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he's been gone for days, but it's common knowledge in the playing group now. nothing less than two picks (one for May). also St Kilda offered Kent THREE TIMES $$ and years what we did. idiots. also, the Hogan salary relief absolutely on the table. they're kicking the Gaff tyres at the 11th hour. was some talk of a hail Mary crack at Lynch. no dice - it's Richmond.

Hogan is a very good player however he has not lived up my original expectations and I am confident he never will at MFC and confident he likely wont at another club. His numbers speak volumes both in possession and work rate which is why he is spoken of so highly but they don't mean much for mine once you scratch the surface. I recall salivating at him rag dolling Rance early in his career, launching at the ball and splitting the packs with contested grabs and commanding the front spot so he could protect it drop as he read it faster than all. Whether it is his back problems, his numerous life challenges he has faced, his personality or our game style he has not looked like being that player for 2-3 years. The facts as shown before is he has consistently had a limited impact against the better sides and has big possession and goal games against the lower sides. He struggles to kick 50 but doesn't like playing deep and when he plays high he gets the ball but holds it up too long. He is a good field kick but a set shot in a pressure game from 35-40 in front I would not have him in the first 5 players I would want to take the shot. Whilst I think he has improved his demeanour if we don't play his way or he can't get his way it is pretty obvious when you have him beat. How often have you seen him have a quiet first quarter or half and fight his way back into a game? Whilst I think he has given his all as an individual I have never thought he has been fully connected with the team both in performance and brotherhood the way most others appear these days. The facts are also that when not there we have played a higher scoring, higher pressure brand of footy. This is particularly shown against the better sides in our run home this year. If this was last year the sky would be falling but we have now seen that T-Mac is not a one hit wonder forward and we have seen the emergence of Weideman as not only a capable player now but a potential star if he matures on the natural path that forwards do. I suggest he has raised going or not committing to us post 2019 but I wouldn't be surprised if we brought this to a head and I don't think this is a one way conversation. I think we have seen the opportunity to maximise this situation to try to solve our broader deficiencies and make us a stronger team. 2 first round picks with use of one for May and KK and holding one inside 10 for the best available kid in the super draft or on trade for something bigger that brings us more speed and carry makes sense. I would back our list management and recruiting to get it right once again.

Now that the Eagles have won the 2018 flag we know all other 17 clubs will be analysing their list, their game plan and just how they won on the day. The AFL is full of copycats as we know. It now seems to me that chaos footy and small defensive forwards, small running halfbacks with intercept marking backs may not be so much in vogue next year. Today’s win for the Eagles was also a victory for 2 legitimate ruckman, two key marking forwards and at least two big marking/spoiling key position backman. It’s like 1990’s footy reborn. Yes there are still running halfbacks, inside mids and small, crumbing forwards but there always were I think. The ramifications are I think that the value of secondary ruckman (Pruest), key position backman who can handle the gorillas (May) has now gone up but so has Hogan’s value as a key forward to offset that for us. The WC structure wants the ball played predominately in the air and this would also help alleviate some of the AFL’s worries about congestion. Interesting to see how the recruiters react to the WC blueprint.

I wouldn’t be so sure that this comes from Hogan alone. I’d suggest you approach this situation with more of an open mind, and look at the opportunities it is opening us up to.

The industry think Weid is a bona fide superstar in waiting. Kennedy/Hawkins good. Combine that with another bloke who is an 3 goal a game player..... cash the chips now. He was going one day. TAke the loot

May plays all of next year as a 27 year old. Edit: I see you're referring to the following year. Some supporters have their red and blue goggles on. Firstly, they underestimate May as a player, and secondly they overrate our defence. With May in our side we're as capable as any other team to win the 2019 premiership. Without May I can't see us winning. Oscar, Frost and Lever are not a good enough grouping to win the flag. Your tall defenders are crucial. May is about as big a no brainer as it gets.

Right. The Suns will hand over their contracted Captain, a sought after fullback being chased by at least three Victorian clubs, for pick 30. There’s “unlikely” then there’s “don’t drink and post”.

Andrew Brayshaw is proven general midfield quality who has had a good exposure to AFL. He had a very solid AFL year, he was a lock in my fantasy team so I followed his progress and he consistently built throughout the year. Relentless midfield quality rotation wears down the opposition. And yes there is something in the Brayshaw name. Good culture is key to success. I love the way Angus goes about it and that's highly likely to be a Brayshaw trait that Andrew will bring. It also brings a stronger bond in adversity. I think we also get a lot from the Macs. I love Toms approach and Oscar seems very similarly smart, sensible and driven.

VDB and a third rounder for Jones. Don’t get sucked in by the romance, Z Jones ain’t that good, a slight upgrade on VDB.

have the filth ever lost a game where they weren't robbed? the more controversial the loss the sweeter the schadenfreude 12 months of goading filth supporters as chokers - delicious santa just came early

@deanox what would say we should improve? Here is my perceived needs list in order: 1. Outside player with elite skills to driver into the forwards 2. Tall defender to allow Oscar to play on the ubiquitous 2nd ruck and Lever to play on the third tall 3. Natural small forward to play at the feet of Preuss/Gawn and Weideman None are glaring - we came fourth - but each have their own impacts should we successfully address them. We have a dominant midfield but we don’t kick the ball Inside 50 well, hence the number one priority. We then get sliced apart on the counter with a patchwork defence that contains a few NQR players amongst Lever, Hibberd, Jetta, and Salem. The third priority is somewhat ameliorated by the first but at the moment we have former midfielders playing a role that is unsuited to them (even though they are giving it a red hot show). So getting someone like May is second on my list for us to push for a flag. That is hard to argue against when discussing maximising the value we get from a trade. Does it matter if we get what we need?

It is worth remembering the 6x6x6 at the centre square rule change, when looking at what we need in defence. With that rule change there will be no players behind the sqaure, no +1 in defence and no time for the ruckman to drop back and help defend. Enormous additional pressure on the defence. May is being highly sort after for a reason.

I was enamoured with Hogan when he came because I saw a star when we had none. Now we have a little bit of a constellation emerging and I am comfortable with it. And I can see the opportunity to balance our list. We should play a second ruck to help Gawn. We have a midfield to win any game. We have no tall defender that can compete with the best forwards in the game. So I hope we can turn this unfortunate situation into something that makes us.

My prediction: we're going to get reamed on what most would expect a fair Hogan deal. Then we're going to pay 'overs' with those rewards for incoming players. Then we win a premiership next year and everyone shuts the [censored] up. Simples.

Surely most supporters don't give a rat's arse what the players are paid. I honestly do not know why anyone gets hung up on that. It's almost like people are more interested in the accounting than they are the footy. Get the player. Let the bean counters worry about how to line the dollars up.

The $850k on the books for Jesse in 2019 is now available

I'd like nothing more than if we could chat again with Gaff and convince him to come. He's exactly what we need. As I've mentioned, Connors stated he won't be going to Melbourne, but that was 3 weeks ago. Things can change. I hope we go all in for one final crack.

That's $2m a year for Gaff and Polec, if figures are correct. Then they are after Hall, probably another $500k. They need to move players on. Hello Brayden.

Possibly. But if truth be told, I edited a post, I wanted to delete and something had to be typed in, or it wouldn't edit, so I just hit 1.

Its delusional to think we will get pick 5, 6 and brayshaw for hogan.

Textbook Saty

Spoke to his Dad on Friday, two things came out of it. Seems the players (Well Sam at least) don’t know what’s happening with Hogan, and Sam and family seem to love the club and are super pleased with his block of games in the backend of the season.

The 10 positives from 2018 1/ Demons broke the 12-year finals drought. Finish 5th with 14 wins 2/ Demons win two finals. Beat the Cats and Hawks to finish 4th 3/ Brayshaw and Harmes improve to make our midfield one of the leagues best. Gus finishes 3rd in Brownlow 4/ highest scoring team in the AFL. Big scores and big wins. 5/ Two All Australians. Max Gawn has another standout year to be the premier ruckman. Clayton Oliver at 21yo shows he is now an A grade midfielder 6/ Tom McDonald has a great year as a key forward. 53 goals. 20 games 7/ Nev Jetta. Most courageous Demons player in the last 3 decades. Never gives up. 8/ Finally we beat the Kangas. The last hoodoo team. 9/ Six wins interstate. Two losses incl a loss v power when we dominated the game. 10/ the optimism and promise of a better 2019. The demon army is on the march. Our finals crowds of over 90000 showed our power.

The MFC’s first duty is to look after its own interests first, then consider the rights and needs of an individual player. Jesse has managed to play six seasons in Melbourne and only recently declared he was happy here. He gets along well with his teammates. If Fremantle won’t satisfy us in trade then I see no problem holding the player to the final year of his contract with a promise to field offers from both Fremantle AND West Coast next season. Freo came to us to poach our gun key forward while still on contract. That fact can not be stressed enough. They’ll need to come to OUR PARTY picks wise, not the other way around. Why should we? Because we’re Melbourne and we play nice at the card table? Sorry but the MFC’s interests trump those of an individual player on this one. I would be shocked if our FD did not see it that way.

10 pages to catch up. None the wiser really but happy to see @ManDee and @Dappa Dan eventually sorted their [censored] out.

It’s a bit like people who believe in God, just because you keep on preaching it, doesn’t mean it’s true.

The smarter way to look at this is look at who was available at that pick and taken later but around the same spot. Here is a list of 2011-2015 drafted players taken pick 11-15. Toby Greene, Sam Docherty, Taylor Adams, Devon Smith, Dom Sheed, Patrick Cripps, Zac Jones, Liam Duggan, Jake Lever, Wayne MIlera, Ed Curnow, Eric Hipwood, Daniel Rioli. It would look even better if I went out to 25 to allow for a full round of picks but I think you'll get the idea. The 2012 draft was a bust but that's more than a handy list. With Jason Taylor's proven record I would back him to pick well.

We won’t win a flag with our current defense. It is the absolute weakest part of our team and probably the most crucial in finals. We need to get some strong experience in there, and that’s hard to come by. If we can get May, we should. It takes years to develop key backman and May could slot straight into our backline.

He is their Captain. He has not yet formally requested a trade and there is still a possibility he may remain at the Suns. In fact if anything the Suns are in a stronger position with May than we are with Hogan. Like Hogan he is contracted for 2019 and if a suitor doesn’t come up with a decent pick for him they can hold him to contract and collect top level compensation for him from the AFL at the end of next season. The Suns are a monty for bottom four again so Band1 compo will guarantee them a top 5 pick for May. Sure they’re probably going to prefer to offload him now, but if Melbourne or Collingwood or Essendon lowball them with a sh.itty pick in trade watch them say thanks but no thanks, play hardball and keep him on their list. Anyone who thinks he’s going to come cheap are kidding themselves.

Excuse my ignorance, but why wouldn't we trade next year's first round pick for May? Would likely be 14-18 which seems a good price to pay for him. Then leaves us with 2 x top 10 picks in this years superdraft, one of which we can trade for a quality outside mid e.g. someone like shiel and we can take a top 5 pick in the draft which means that we fulfil the AFL's 2 first round picks in 4 years requirements.

FWIW Tony Sheahan reported on his twitter feed that the Demons are back in the race for Gaff. Usually a fairly speculative fellow, but he's put it out there.

Collingwood paid out two pick 7’s for Treloar. 5 & 9 seems entirely appropriate for Hogan given the circumstances.

Gaff's wife resigned from her job as a nurse Friday before the prelim final. West Coast are no longer in the picture.

I liken this move for May to Hawthorn’s shrewd recruiting of Brian Lake at the end of the 2012 season. The Hawks lost the 2012 GF to Sydney and Clarkson quickly identified the main weak link in that side - Ryan Schoenmakers did not quite cut the mustard in a key back role. So he quickly targets his man in Lake with the promise of joining the Hawks on a sustained premiership run. Lake needs little convincing, goes on to play in a premiership three-peat including winning the Norm Smith in 2013 against Freo. May has a great opportunity here to be that player for us.

It's not the specific pick, it's the access to the pool of players. The following 'superstars' were taken between 10 and 20 since 2010: Tom Lynch (11), Brodie Smith (14), Isaac Smith (19), Toby Greene (11), Sam Doherty (12), Devon Smith (14), Brodie Grundy (19), Patrick Cripps (12), Lachie Weller (13), Jake Lever (14), Charlie Curnow (12), Daniel Rioli (15), Tom Doedee (17) Jade Gresham(18), Ryan Burton (19). That just in the 10-20 range and there are plenty more All Australian/ BnF winners outside of that range. This of course doesn't include players that would easily be in our starting 18. Draft picks are generally overrated, but there is some genuine A Grade talent available at pick 10, and we're looking at have 2 picks between 6 and 10.

Especially considering the marking power displayed by the Eagles yesterday. We have been beat up by big key forwards for years, it's one of our major Achilles heels.

My understanding is that we’ll be playing our own ‘brand’.

Our last four winning games; Eagles in Perth, GWS, Geelong and Hawthorn we kept the opposition to an average 66 points. This is with a backline that we will add Lever to next year. We already know that he will improve us considerably. Adding May will cost a minimum of a top ten pick which I believe could be better used as opportunities arise. The worse case scenario is we end up with very good pick in a supposed super draft Furthermore if you were either Oscar or Frostie you would be seriously ‘exploring your options’. I appreciate I am in the minority here but I’m happy to pass on May unless he comes relatively cheaply which isn’t going to happen

That YOU don’t

Sank am few single malts tonight with an old friend who just happens to be a Pies man. i was very magnanimous but inside I was cheering the loss. At the end of the day I still hate the bastards.

Of course May’s arrival and Hogan’s departure is not a net gain to us in isolation. That’s why we will be demanding two first round picks for him. But there’s a significant difference in value between draft picks 5-10 and picks 14-18. The Suns are not giving up their captain, a sought after fullback with at least three Vic clubs chasing his signature, for anything less than pick 10.

I dont see why teams would copy West Coasts strategies. Richmond would have done them (pre prelim form), Our better games this year would have stacked up well today. West Coast just get to sit out west accumulate wins, get a good finals draw and make it to the big day in ease. You cant draft home ground/crowd advantages.

They’re Freo fans. They literally wouldn’t know success, a nice jumper or a good coach if it hit them in the face.

Dickwick was completely out coached. Caught napping when Big Cox went bezerk . Simpson saw to it that didn't happen again. simmo coached brilliantly I thought.

IMO it is. I'm at peace with Hogan leaving, but I don't rate May nearly as much as others do and I do not necessarily see May coming into the side as being a net gain over Hogan leaving the side.

Both sides held one grab marks for the most part of the game. Was great to watch

Would West Coast have used a dual ruck combo if Nic Nat was fit? We will never know. WC winning was a good old fashioned best team on the day scenario. There is nothing about that list or game plan that screams "blueprint". Congratulations to them, they were just very fortunate to play us out West a week before and not today. I think we would have beaten them at the MCG today.

Fair call but I’m not giving up Pick 6 for S May alone as he is simply not worth it IMO. If we are going to have a sustained period of success we still need to build the list, hopefully the FA will come naturally.

Two ruckmen worked for West Coast because of the specifics of their personnel. Specifically: - Vardy is a competent forward in his own right - They’ve got two AFL elite forwards, so their ruckman in the forward line is third tall - Neither of their rucks are that good as actual rucks, nor are they huge runners, so the load needs to be shared. It will be interesting to see how West Coast look when NicNat returns next year. I’d expect him to be an 80% ruckman, with Vardy to have a role akin to the one Weideman played with us during those few games he played with both Hogan and TMac in. If we get Preuss, he would want to offer something as a forward if he wants to play seniors.