What's needed in 2024

[Fat Tony 5,231]

Here is my take:

With Gawn and May turning 32 next year, we need to put our chips into winning the flag in 2024. This might be the last big chance with our current list.

I assume our salary cap is very tight.

Firstly, I feel we must commit to Petty as a forward in 2024. He showed so much against Hawthorn and Richmond and is our best option in that role. While Petty might be better defender than forward, it is close, and he actually had an inconsistent season as a defender.

Joel Smith looks better as a forward than a defender and would benefit from a more settled role next year. I like his ability to play either tall or small and with Melksham out, he should become our main defensive forward option.

Melksham is 31 and, given he has done an ACL, I would probably make a tough decision because he will miss most of 2024.

Grundy will exit and we need a plan for a) a first ruck if Max gets injured and b) a forward/ruck to play alongside him.

We don’t have major holes on our list other than ruck depth.

While the forward line could do with a bit more class, Petty, Van Rooyen, Smith, Fritsch, Neal Bullen and Pickett is a decent core of AFL talented players. Shane McAdam could also be added to the mix. We just need a bit of luck with injury in order to get synergy and forward systems working better.

Salem is a worry and looks to have lost his power. Salem was never a big line breaker in the past but he gave us no drive this season and is only kicking just over 45m. That said, because Salem is a popular player within the club and has three years on his contract, I am not sure a trade is possible. While his form could improve next year with a decent preseason, I think we have to assume (in terms of list management) that he will never get back to 2021 form.

Langdon was found out in the finals series and we should be looking to upgrade on the wing roles. He lacks a bit of skill and size and is not that quick.

Hunter was better than Langdon in the finals, but is getting on and we need to plan for his replacement.

I feel we are too small over the field with Bowey, Salem, Langdon, Hunter, Viney, Pickett, Chandler and Spargo in the same side. We need to try and get taller, more athletic players in wing, half back and small forward roles to get better balance.

I am confident Daniel Turner will be a good AFL player, particularly if we invest games into him at the start of the season.

Howes looks like he has a lot of talent in the VFL and will be an AFL player if he can get a bit more intensity. He is not Salem’s level in terms of kicking and I am not sure where on the field he plays at AFL level. It could be high half back, wing or high half forward.

I think Woewodin showed enough to be encouraged. But I am not sure he has the tank to be a winger and probably won’t be big enough to play as an inside midfielder.

Laurie does not have the athletic traits we really need; especially given the issues we have across the field with size.

Jefferson looks a mile off AFL IMO. There are too many weaknesses in his game (strength, no ground level game, tackling, chasing and endurance) and I will be surprised if he makes it. I would play him in defence next year in the VFL because it is easier to develop there.

Harmes has declined and we would benefit from moving him on if someone will pay him.

I would like to keep Jordon, but only on the right contract. He had a poor final against Carlton but he is still likely to give us more than a replacement.

Dunstan should be delisted due to injury.

Ben Brown looks finished. It would be good if he would retire and give us some cap relief.

TMac would have to get 2021 fit again to get back into the side. I thought he was close to finished in 2020. Can the soufflé rise three times?

Tomlinson was good at times this year but really needs a slow match up. We should look to trade him to get salary cap room and find a developed, replacement depth tall defender (someone like OMac).

The effective interest rate on bringing forward or delaying draft picks is around 20% p.a. (i.e. it is costly to bring picks forward). We should only be willing to go up the draft order or bring forward our picks if we have a specific hole on our list (which we don’t really have currently) and/or we are targeting a specific talent. Otherwise we should be also willing to be patient and push our picks back and draft best available talent.

The effective discount on player trades is around 20% (i.e. player trades almost always result in the team receiving the player paying less than full price in terms of the value in draft picks).

The draft is inefficient and the player we want might not be on anyone else’s draft board. It makes no sense to push higher up the draft if we will land the same player.

Taylor and co have shown they can pick up talent without early picks (i.e. McVee, Chandler, Fritsch, Bowey, Daniel Turner, Van Rooyen, Petty and Rivers).

There are not may 2023 draftees that will make a difference to who wins the flag next year. There may be only 3-4 players in the draft pool who could move the needle.

So what do we need to do from a list management perspective?

Find new homes for Grundy, Tomlinson and Harmes and offer Jordon a fair contract and try and convince him to stay.

Delist Melksham, Dunstan, Hibberd, Kye Turner and Deakin Smith.

I would be going for a forward/ruck that can play alongside Max but also fill in if Max gets injured. I think Chol or Casboult make the most sense of the available options.

It appears we will land McAdam.

We should bid for GCS pick #4 but not over pay. I think our future first round pick is less attractive than other clubs and so we might struggle be the best bid. (We might be able to get the crumbs of any winning bid i.e. WBD’s pick #10.)

If the price paid for pick #4 is exuberant, we should look at auctioning off our pick #5.

If we use pick #5, take the best available but I would prefer not to take another very small player.

If Harmes, Jordon and Dunstan all depart, I would look at taking on Travis Boak on a low wage. We are going to need depth in the midfield (especially with Brayshaw under a cloud) and I doubt we will find better in the short term.

[Swooper1987 3,322]

We have two-thirds of the game completely mastered. Contest and Defence have been proven to be the basis of nearly all great sides.  We need better connection between our mids and forwards.  Oliver and Viney do many things well but they both lack finesse by foot.  Tracc must be 70-30 forward.  His disposal efficiency by foot is not great either.  I don't have a lot of faith that Petty can play a full season but he is without doubt our great hope.  JVR will be a very good player.  he has a natural aggression about him that means he's always going to be on the edge, but he hits packs hard, rarely gets outmarked and is a lovely shot on goal.  We need to look after him.  If he can become a 6 mark a game player he'll kick three goals most weeks.  That'll make a difference.

[BaliDemon 401]

Salem and Hunter is a half back flank and wing zone of the ground that concerns me. Salem’s drop off in form since 2021 has been steep and Hunter, although a seasoned and ‘neat’ footballer, lacks leg speed in an area of the ground that we need it. Salem ‘ain’t quick over the ground either. 

Selection pressure must come on both of these blokes in 2021. Hunter in particular I’d like to see replaced as a first 18 regular with someone with more dash and dare. It’s an area where I think we can blood some fresh talent in 2024. 

Kade Chandler is the other one. His back half the season was poor and finals a huge letdown. Hard call on the kid but we can and must do a lot better there. 

[monoccular 17,430]

4 hours ago, drdrake said:

I'm not so sure about the win now, no question we can play finals again in 2024, but I'm not sure we can win.  This isn't just from the last 2 weeks we just lack that polish, no doubt we are a great contested team but the new contenders are more balanced with contested and skill.

I see 2024 as a dangerous year for the club, we might need to step back to go forward.

 

Many seem to forget that we were just a few straighter kicks (and two score reviews) from playing this weekend. It is a tough competition with very little separating the top teams.  Luck, and injury ( and the timing of injuries) is crucial to the ultimate 🏆.  Luck and injuries were on our side in 2021 (and 1964 🙄). 

[roy11 3,853]

6 minutes ago, monoccular said:

Many seem to forget that we were just a few straighter kicks (and two score reviews) from playing this weekend. It is a tough competition with very little separating the top teams.  Luck, and injury ( and the timing of injuries) is crucial to the ultimate 🏆.  Luck and injuries were on our side in 2021 (and 1964 🙄). 

Reminds me of a chat I was having with a friend on the weekend, with the way the competition is at present, will we see dynasties of teams winning multiple flags or will it be a bit more of an 'even spread' going forward?

[dazzledavey36 54,944]

3 hours ago, BaliDemon said:

Salem and Hunter is a half back flank and wing zone of the ground that concerns me. Salem’s drop off in form since 2021 has been steep and Hunter, although a seasoned and ‘neat’ footballer, lacks leg speed in an area of the ground that we need it. Salem ‘ain’t quick over the ground either. 

Selection pressure must come on both of these blokes in 2021. Hunter in particular I’d like to see replaced as a first 18 regular with someone with more dash and dare. It’s an area where I think we can blood some fresh talent in 2024. 

Kade Chandler is the other one. His back half the season was poor and finals a huge letdown. Hard call on the kid but we can and must do a lot better there. 

Very disappointing finish for Chandler. 

Whilst we watch Toby Bedford steam roll into finals, it was then hard to watch Chandler don't even give a yelp in his last month of footy.

Andy Moniz Wakefield needs to have the biggest pre season of his life because there is a spot up for grabs in our smalls department. 

[BaliDemon 401]

16 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Very disappointing finish for Chandler. 

Whilst we watch Toby Bedford steam roll into finals, it was then hard to watch Chandler don't even give a yelp in his last month of footy.

Andy Moniz Wakefield needs to have the biggest pre season of his life because there is a spot up for grabs in our smalls department. 

Don’t know much about him but if I were him I’d be avoiding the summer party scene and put laser focus on becoming the best and fittest player he can be. Extra running, weights, get down the park with a mate and have two hundred shots on goal (left & right foot) every afternoon from different angles - set shots, snaps and kicking at speed. It’s this type of attitude that sets you apart. There’s a small forward spot there for the taking if he wants it badly enough. 

Edited September 18, 2023 by BaliDemon

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

33 minutes ago, roy11 said:

Reminds me of a chat I was having with a friend on the weekend, with the way the competition is at present, will we see dynasties of teams winning multiple flags or will it be a bit more of an 'even spread' going forward?

It will never be an even spread when you have inequity in the draft system. 

Dynasties are hard enough. The Hawks, with their talent and arguably having one of the best footballers of all time. Richmond were a touch lucky with their ability to snare Tom Lynch after flag 1 and then 2020 with reduced quarters and their favorable fixture.

All we needed was to pick Curnow instead of Weideman and we'd be looking at our 3rd flag in a couple of weeks. 

[BScotti 178]

Players Out - BBB (retire), Hibbo (retire), Dunstan (delist), Grundy (trade), Harmes (trade), Tomlinson (trade - he just doesnt want to be there), D.Smith (delist)

Players In -  McAdam (not sure), Chol (not a bad option as fwd/ruck - but is he hard enough), DRAFT gun young mid, DRAFT May replacement, DRAFT a 2nd Ruck option (not fwd/ruck) as Gawn getting older until Kalani White is on board and ready (that will be at least 3 years away by which time Gawn is 35+), perhaps a mature mid year option.

Players Change - Melk (extend but rookie), McVee (promote), Howes to challenge for wing spot, Jefferson to come on as KPF, continue development on Woewoedin, TMac retain as depth

Not Sure - what happened to Jed Adams?

Coaches - Stafford (out), Dew (in for Yze if he gets Tigs gig), new fwd coach

 

[BaliDemon 401]

13 minutes ago, BScotti said:

Players Out - BBB (retire),

I keep reading posts where people are adamant either or both of Ben Brown and TMac will ‘retire’. Mate, no-one’s retiring and throwing away a year left on an AFL contract worth $400k - $550k. 

Would you throw away that sort of coin knowing you’re soon to enter the ‘real’ world? No way. 

Only way it happens is if the club opts to fully pay them out, which is unlikely. 

[bush demon 2,041]

Has anyone had a chew on this?

 

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/news/wreck-it-ralph-the-targets-melbourne-should-aim-for-in-the-trade-and-free-agency-market/news-story/0a34d0a0e4aff0a8d41090dcc974b5c5

[whatwhat say what 22,758]

13 minutes ago, bush demon said:

Has anyone had a chew on this?

 

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/news/wreck-it-ralph-the-targets-melbourne-should-aim-for-in-the-trade-and-free-agency-market/news-story/0a34d0a0e4aff0a8d41090dcc974b5c5

mindless speculation designed for clicks

[bush demon 2,041]

I bet you didn't say that when we poached Diamond Jim.

[Turner 1,514]

On 9/16/2023 at 1:01 AM, dee-tox said:

1. Get Matt Flynn in as a free agent.

2. Draft Duursma/McKercher and O'Sullivan as first round picks.

3. Get Blake Howes fit and firing for 2024. Can replace Hunter whose lack of kicking depth is a problem.

4. Use second round picks to poach a 195cm + pack busting key forward and/or a tall hard running mid that is an elite kick.

5. Examine Chocco's role as goal kicking coach. Abject failure this year.

6. Two new assistant coaches. Get on the phone to the likes of hated former players like Joel Selwood or Trent Cotchin.

7. Prune the dead wood if possible. Pay out contracts of BBB and TMac, free agents Jordon, Tomlinson and Harmes. Delist Dunstan and maybe Melksham.

8. Scour the VFL for the best mature players with upside.

you'd think we'd won the spoon

[dee-tox 4,835]

1 minute ago, Turner said:

you'd think we'd won the spoon

Not at all. Hardly radical suggestions. 

[The heart beats true 18,123]

On The Couch is ugly tonight.

We are the 16th ranked team for kicking in the competition.

Gawn is the worst kick in the comp.
Viney the 3rd worst.
Oliver the 7th.

Wow that’s ugly.

[dazzledavey36 54,944]

5 minutes ago, The heart beats true said:

On The Couch is ugly tonight.

We are the 16th ranked team for kicking in the competition.

Gawn is the worst kick in the comp.
Viney the 3rd worst.
Oliver the 7th.

Wow that’s ugly.

Ugly and embarrassing to watch.

These are our so called senior leaders that are suppose to be leading the way in games, but yet they're their own worst enemy. 

[Demonsone 2,037]

3 hours ago, monoccular said:

Many seem to forget that we were just a few straighter kicks (and two score reviews) from playing this weekend. It is a tough competition with very little separating the top teams.  Luck, and injury ( and the timing of injuries) is crucial to the ultimate 🏆.  Luck and injuries were on our side in 2021 (and 1964 🙄). 

Game goes past you if you don’t re invent urself …. Sure fwd line injuries impacted all but our game plane was found wanting… the field kicking was poor, I’m sorry both Hunter & Langdon kicks were poor as! Viney dropped off, Salem also but his health issues impacted him, T Mac feel for the guy as his injuries have slowed him too much , needed to make Grundy work as max getting older but Goody has slammed the door..need injection of speedy forwards 

[BW511 2,669]

33 minutes ago, The heart beats true said:

On The Couch is ugly tonight.

We are the 16th ranked team for kicking in the competition.

Gawn is the worst kick in the comp.
Viney the 3rd worst.
Oliver the 7th.

Wow that’s ugly.

For all those wondering why we constantly bomb the ball in long, the coaches know about the above and direct accordingly.

It’s staggering that we manage to have 3 of the worst 7 disposers of the ball in our starting midfield for majority of games. 
 

Viney’s 20m kick to kill us on Friday was simply inexcusable.

One elite kicking mid could transform our game. Errol Gulden, Josh Kelly, Jordan Dawson. If only they grew on trees.

 

 

Edited September 18, 2023 by BW511

[dazzledavey36 54,944]

 

[adonski 12,146]

1 hour ago, BW511 said:

For all those wondering why we constantly bomb the ball in long, the coaches know about the above and direct accordingly.

It’s staggering that we manage to have 3 of the worst 7 disposers of the ball in our starting midfield for majority of games. 
 

Viney’s 20m kick to kill us on Friday was simply inexcusable.

One elite kicking mid could transform our game. Errol Gulden, Josh Kelly, Jordan Dawson. If only they grew on trees.

 

 

We could partially correct it by playing Kozzie in the midfield for more than 28 seconds per game. Or experimenting with Salem or even Bowey through the midfield should they feel adventurous.

[Boots and all 1,000]

Kicking practice for Gawn, Viney and Oliver. All rated in the bottom 7 kicks in the AFL. A big issue given how much of the footy they get. 

[bing181 9,238]

24 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

 

Also covered in On The Couch. I posted in the post-game thread re the impact of Brayshaw being knocked out on at least some of the players:

“A strong belief from senior figures still a week on is that the Angus Brayshaw furore derailed their finals pitch,” he said On the Couch.

“That the players were shell shocked to witness Brayshaw concussed and laid out cold. So Jacob van Rooyen suspended because he was trying to basically physically intimidate the opposition, the Kossie Pickett first half brain fades this week. Him trying to impose himself."

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

5 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Very disappointing finish for Chandler. 

Whilst we watch Toby Bedford steam roll into finals, it was then hard to watch Chandler don't even give a yelp in his last month of footy.

Andy Moniz Wakefield needs to have the biggest pre season of his life because there is a spot up for grabs in our smalls department. 

Poor list management here.

Needed to try and match the GWS offer and hang on to him.

AMV is a now a better crumber and goal sneak than Chandler.  At VFL level anyway.  We may never know at AFL level at this rate.  So the FD must be seeing something they don't like so far.  Assuming he stays then yes he would need to have a big 2024. 

Need to move Laurie on imv.

Chandler back to Casey in 2024 to work on a number of aspects of his game.   Not sure why he was recalled after one Casey match.  Tried his guts out but did nothing to excite against Sandy.  AMW was the best of the small forwards on the day.

The player management this season from a Casey form POV has been pretty bizzare imv

Another example..  Dunstan not getting one game after racking up massive numbers and a number of BOGs (prior to injury) while Clarry was out.  Instead we kept selecting Harmes who was ok but never set the world on fire at any stage in his Casey matches.  Even some of those were hard to watch vs his 2021 Premiership year & 2022.  He did have one very good game against the Bombers but wasn't able to carry that to AFL level.

Edited September 18, 2023 by Demon Dynasty

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

6 hours ago, monoccular said:

Many seem to forget that we were just a few straighter kicks (and two score reviews) from playing this weekend. It is a tough competition with very little separating the top teams.  Luck, and injury ( and the timing of injuries) is crucial to the ultimate 🏆.  Luck and injuries were on our side in 2021 (and 1964 🙄). 

This is true mono but there continue to be aspects that need reviewing.

Aready posted on this so i wont bore ppl with details again.

In summary...

Forward craft 👉🏼 generally putrid

Mid to forward connection 👉🏼 crappola

3 minute play book 👉🏼 do we have one?  If not why wasn't it implemented on Friday?

CB losses against the better clubs 👉🏼 alarming at times.  Why?  Costing us goals, momentum and matches on occasions imv

Use of sub 👉🏼  Often questionable eg;  Spargo in one match, Schache debacle on Friday

Wet / greasy weather play book 👉🏼 Lost most or all of these matches in 2023.  What's going on?

Our biggest issues are mid/forward connection, forward craft / conversion,  lack of speed on the outside and too slow / poor skills in transition

Partly solved by better list management / draft and trades.

Mid / forward issues who knows.  Look to get in a gun mid/forward coach that takes them both on and brings them together as one!

Would need to be a cracker jack coach who has had experience and a gun in both areas of the field.  For me that would be Ablett Jnr.

Edited September 18, 2023 by Demon Dynasty