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Christian Petracca a chance to win the 2023 Brownlow Medal?


Supreme_Demon

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I have produced a 99 page Brownlow Medal guide based on my model's predictions and 20,000 simulations of the model. You can download it from the following page:

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_brownlow.html

My model has Petracca 4th favourite to poll most votes at 17.0% (17.8% to win, ignoring ineligible players) and second favourite to poll in the most games.

I have Daicos favourite to poll most votes at 33.6% (35.6% to win) but unlikely to poll after round 18.

Here are my top 4:

Daicos 33.6% to poll most votes (35.6% to win)
Bontempelli 26.0% (27.5%)
Butters 21.6% (22.8%)
Petracca 17.0% (17.8%)

I plan on posting updated probabilities during the count under the following account on X/Twitter:

 

 

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3 hours ago, layzie said:

If you're looking for a last foray of happiness in 2023, don't watch the brownlow.

Just switch off all AFL related content Dlanders, you'll be much happier 😉.

Wait for trade and draft periods.

Rinse and repeat in season 2024.

Don't stop hating the filth. ✌🏻

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Daicos and the Bont don’t have many taking votes from them. De Geoy a few but he only averaged 24 touches. 

Rozee will take votes off Butters abs Viney Gawn Clarry will take votes off Trac

I would guess Bont to beat Daicos by 1 vote. Trac third

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Surely Bont wins it as most of his teammates are spuds.  Other favourites will have their vote tally cannibilised by other good highly visible players.

Dont care anyway. Who GAF. Petracca will probably be very deflated on Brownie night. Good.Suck it up.

Would be vomitous if Daicos manages to pull it off. Cripps then Daicos.  Oh FFS.

 

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Yracc had a good year but he seemed to fade away somewhat in several games at the end of this year. I thought with Daicos injured he may have  been a chance but he didn't really dominate from then on.

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17 hours ago, WheeloRatings said:

I have produced a 99 page Brownlow Medal guide based on my model's predictions and 20,000 simulations of the model. You can download it from the following page:

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_brownlow.html

My model has Petracca 4th favourite to poll most votes at 17.0% (17.8% to win, ignoring ineligible players) and second favourite to poll in the most games.

I have Daicos favourite to poll most votes at 33.6% (35.6% to win) but unlikely to poll after round 18.

Here are my top 4:

Daicos 33.6% to poll most votes (35.6% to win)
Bontempelli 26.0% (27.5%)
Butters 21.6% (22.8%)
Petracca 17.0% (17.8%)

I plan on posting updated probabilities during the count under the following account on X/Twitter:

 

 

Does your model predict a total number of votes for Melbourne?

who have you got coming second for Melbourne out of interest?

 

Actually I found your report, it’s bloody amazing!!!

Edited by Rossmillan
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Look I actually like daicos. No issues with him, he seems like a really nice polite kid. But I don't want to start the week off with the filth having something to celebrate. 

We know only midfielders win this award. A shame really that's what it's turned into. 

I'll probably watch the end and see Gill get through it in his final one. I hope he gets annoyed with the room again and tells them to sit down like last year 

Edited by dees189227
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On 8/8/2023 at 1:37 PM, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

The AFL employs the umpires. The umpires vote on the Brownlow. It is clearly wrong for the AFL to be making "predictions" on how many votes players might currently have earned. I know it's only meant to be a bit of fun, but it is clearly inappropriate.  

Of course no conflicts of interest anywhere in the AFL - nor in their partners, Sportsbet. 
And the votes are kept in a locked box and nobody has any idea about who is in the lead, especially the appeals board late 2022 - 🙄🙄🙄

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I reckon Trac is going to poll quite well. Umpires like him a lot and without Clarry for an extended period he'll score more votes than expected IMO.

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Trac is an excellent player. Very powerful and great in the contest. he can turn games.

But he butchers the ball regularly. Terrible set shot for an elite player. Bont or Daicos don't waste possessions at anything like the rate Trac does.

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9 minutes ago, BDA said:

Trac is an excellent player. Very powerful and great in the contest. he can turn games.

But he butchers the ball regularly. Terrible set shot for an elite player. Bont or Daicos don't waste possessions at anything like the rate Trac does.

If you asked non partisan peeps and coaches who they’d want out of tracc bont and daicos #35 who would they say?

Theyd all want 2021 Grand Final Trac I’d reckon! 

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2 minutes ago, Superunknown said:

If you asked non partisan peeps and coaches who they’d want out of tracc bont and daicos #35 who would they say?

Theyd all want 2021 Grand Final Trac I’d reckon! 

We want him too. I think im fairly settled on him being 70/30 forward mid. That is where games are won. As long as he gets the service he’ll add influence games.

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GUS has played some good footy since probably Rd17. I'd like to see how many votes he might have received from the umpires. Here is an old article from Fox Sports:

Melbourne’s Angus Brayshaw finds the lighter side to his Brownlow Medal snubAngus Brayshaw wasn't even invited to the Brownlow.

MELBOURNE onballer Angus Brayshaw has cheekily thanked the AFL after his stunning third place in the 2018 Brownlow Medal.

Brayshaw was not among the five Demons players who were invited to Monday night’s black tie function.

Instead, Brayshaw watched the TV in a T-shirt as he polled 21 votes, only seven short of Hawthorn winner Tom Mitchell, while Collingwood onballer Steele Sidebottom was second on 24.

Brayshaw then went on Instagram, posting a photo of himself kissing a fake medal.

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Trac's potential high possession 3 vote games in our wins:

Sydney - round 3

West Coast - round 4

North - round 7

Carlton - round 12

St Kilda - round 17

Brisbane - round 18

North - round 21

Sydney - round 24

I don't think he quite gets over the line this year.

Would need to vote well in his lower possession games and pull off some 2's and 3's in losses.

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