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Christian Petracca a chance to win the 2023 Brownlow Medal?


Supreme_Demon

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5 minutes ago, SFebes said:

I've said all year that Bont will win it. Another AFL darling....but of course, he is an outstanding player. From memory he did turn the ball over quite a bit in the first half of the season, but the media are always right up his clacker.

Bont is pure silk. IMO is the best player in the game, swap him with Daicos and Doggies finish bottom 4, whilst Pies would be certain PF attendance every year he plays. 

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33 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

Taranto?? Are they drunk? 

The umpires see him winning the footy and around the stoppages, where it ends up is probably the issue they don’t take into account 

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There are other Brownlow predictors. This one is on Betfair which seems to use the ESPN model which is explained below.

https://www.betfair.com.au/hub/sports/afl/brownlow-medal-predictor/

ESPN is once again giving you an advantage with Jake Michaels' one-of-a-kind predictor, which has correctly picked seven out of the past eight winners, including Ollie Wines in 2021.

Most Brownlow Medal predictors use a standard 3-2-1 voting structure, mirroring what the umpires do after each game. ESPN's system, however, does things a little differently. A player can be allocated 3, 2.5, 2, 1.5, 1 or 0.5 votes per game, resulting in a much lower margin for error.

For example, in a game where it's difficult to split two players for best on ground honours, this system would give each 2.5 votes, as opposed to one being given 3 and the other receiving 2. Over the course of the season, the difference between the predictor and the actual votes a player tallies will be much closer, and therefore more accurate. There are still six votes allocated to players per match, and can be done through any combination of the above scores.

I prefer this model because it makes my pre season Melbourne Premiership/ Petracca Brownlow wager look a lot better.  😉 

Edited by Palace Dees
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You know your priorities are different to the media's when nearly every outlet is leading off their stories with what Nick Daicos's injury means to the Brownlow race.

This award is so insignificant in the real scheme of things and Collingwood's premiership chances were the real story. 

 

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30 minutes ago, david_neitz_is_my_dad said:

I doubt Trac will win or even get 2nd

I'm not so sure. Will have polled regularly as shown by the Coaches votes. Does dynamic things that catch the eye. Every favourite has players taking votes away. Finishes the season with a bang and he's a huge chance.

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OMG the anointed Daicos / Magpies double now in serious doubt. 🤗🤗

Now for the Petracca / Demons double with Max or Clarrie for the Norm.  Or maybe ANB just to peeve some of our regular posters. 

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23 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

AFL website update on its Brownlow predictor

30 - Nick Daicos (Collingwood)
27 - Tim Taranto (Richmond)
26 - Lachie Neale (Brisbane)
25 - Jordan Dawson (Adelaide)
24 - Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)
23 - Zak Butters (Port Adelaide)
23 - Christian Petracca (Melbourne)

The AFL employs the umpires. The umpires vote on the Brownlow. It is clearly wrong for the AFL to be making "predictions" on how many votes players might currently have earned. I know it's only meant to be a bit of fun, but it is clearly inappropriate.  

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Petracca is in it up to his eyeballs.  The fact that he averages over 28 disposals and kicks goals helps.

Petracca has received coaches votes in 16 of 20 games compared to Bontempelli's 12.

All this means is that Petracca has been adjudicated to be in the top half dozen players on the ground in 80% of the games he's played.  Based on probability he's receiving plenty of Brownlow votes.

The main concern is that he may not get enough 3s.

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Completely unrelated, but does anyone know why Trac isn’t on AFL360 player’s night anymore? It was great having him on the last couple of years but I don’t think he’s been on since before round 10 this year.

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  • 3 weeks later...
6 minutes ago, leave it to deever said:

He may have been a chance but his last three weeks haven't been his usual top stuff and alas I think has missed out.

Agreed. Bont would have got 2 votes in a losing side last week and Trac wouldn’t have got any. 
Possible that neither get votes for round 22. 
Trac would need a 3 vote game on Sunday and Bont a no vote game to be a chance. 
Butters is also very much still in contention IMO. 
 

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Agreed. Trac needs a BOG desperately this week.
 

I still have N Daicos as my favourite followed by Butters, Bont, Neale (umps love him) and Trac.  

Trac has tailed off in the last 3 weeks since the Crows and Tigers games, and probably has failed to vote (v Roos v blues vHawks). I’d have loved to see him get 5-6 votes in these games to catch/pass Daicos. 

The irony is of course that if Dees beat Blues from Tracs match winning goal, then he might have snagged a vote or two  !!! 

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The player that wins the Brownlow this year  will always have to put up with C'wood supporters and their mates in the media saying 'they only won it because our boy got injured'.   I guess that's better than saying someone only won it because he had expensive lawyers.

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