The Run Home

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

12 hours ago, monoccular said:

Cats always make finals given their quaintly shaped home ground where very few opposition fans can attend. 
But what is their record at the G this year? Or any year and at any normal shaped and sized ground for that matter

It occurred to me last night. Wouldn't it be great if we played the Cats Alice Springs next year. 

[deejammin' 2,373]

I think our best is the best in it. At the moment Geelong are the team to beat, but they’re running at their absolute peak, Danger is back, Selwood is playing well, Stanley is playing great footy, Blitsalvs also, De Koenig + Stengel are a revelation etc. all that is fine. Can they sustain it? When will the spate of calf injuries hit? Even their best is not as good as our best.

We have the most upside of any team in the comp. Atm Max and Luke have been out of the team/off their best form for weeks. Max’s last best form game was Sydney, Luke Brisbane, if both hit their straps again, look out! They got towelled up by Stanley against Geelong, I’m betting that won’t happen again. 
Salem is building but well off his best, his kicking is just not back to its best yet, the grubber to Lever this week is the prime example, if he gets back to his best look out! 
May also, he’s missing more kicks than usual and is taking less marks. Lever showed what he is capable of against Brisbane and if he brings that in finals we’ll smash it. Trac has built back to near his best the last few weeks but there’s more to go, Clayton was down against Geelong but he’ll be back, Viney has been ok but needs to stop bombing right footed kicks straight up in the air. Kozzie just got back into his best form for the first time this year. Frittata is showing glimpses but has more. Brown lifted for Geelong and was ok against Port but needs to kick straighter. Langdon is building back to his best but has been a little off the last few weeks, by his own admission. Our role players ANB, Spargo, Bedford, Sparrow, Harmes, Hibberd have all shown glimpses but can offer far more. In fact I would argue only Brayshaw and Jordon have consistently played their best over the past month. That’s a huge upside for a team that is 13-4 sitting in second. 

I’m hoping we get it all clicking again and smash these last five rounds, but even if we don’t, what is effectively a home final against Geelong at the G, or, less likely but possible, Collingwood or Carlton doesn’t scare me at all. 3rd or 4th playing a Melbourne team is fine, even playing interstate I believe we can beat anyone at our best, but I want to be there!
If we win the next two top four is assured and from there I would dare anyone to count the Dees out in the finals, no matter what happens the last three games. Our best is THE BEST we just need to bring it. 

[D4Life 2,510]

56 minutes ago, deejammin' said:

I think our best is the best in it. At the moment Geelong are the team to beat, but they’re running at their absolute peak, Danger is back, Selwood is playing well, Stanley is playing great footy, Blitsalvs also, De Koenig + Stengel are a revelation etc. all that is fine. Can they sustain it? When will the spate of calf injuries hit? Even their best is not as good as our best.

We have the most upside of any team in the comp. Atm Max and Luke have been out of the team/off their best form for weeks. Max’s last best form game was Sydney, Luke Brisbane, if both hit their straps again, look out! They got towelled up by Stanley against Geelong, I’m betting that won’t happen again. 
Salem is building but well off his best, his kicking is just not back to its best yet, the grubber to Lever this week is the prime example, if he gets back to his best look out! 
May also, he’s missing more kicks than usual and is taking less marks. Lever showed what he is capable of against Brisbane and if he brings that in finals we’ll smash it. Trac has built back to near his best the last few weeks but there’s more to go, Clayton was down against Geelong but he’ll be back, Viney has been ok but needs to stop bombing right footed kicks straight up in the air. Kozzie just got back into his best form for the first time this year. Frittata is showing glimpses but has more. Brown lifted for Geelong and was ok against Port but needs to kick straighter. Langdon is building back to his best but has been a little off the last few weeks, by his own admission. Our role players ANB, Spargo, Bedford, Sparrow, Harmes, Hibberd have all shown glimpses but can offer far more. In fact I would argue only Brayshaw and Jordon have consistently played their best over the past month. That’s a huge upside for a team that is 13-4 sitting in second. 

I’m hoping we get it all clicking again and smash these last five rounds, but even if we don’t, what is effectively a home final against Geelong at the G, or, less likely but possible, Collingwood or Carlton doesn’t scare me at all. 3rd or 4th playing a Melbourne team is fine, even playing interstate I believe we can beat anyone at our best, but I want to be there!
If we win the next two top four is assured and from there I would dare anyone to count the Dees out in the finals, no matter what happens the last three games. Our best is THE BEST we just need to bring it. 

Agree we have some significant upside in our players. There are a few other things that would be good to see:

- team settled with few changes, that is Goody’s approach as it just builds consistency that is critical under final’s pressure 

- the last 3-4 weeks just build form as we did heading into finals last year

- someone to step up into that last key forward position, TMac form wasn’t great in finals but played the role and enabled Fritsch, Kossie, & BBB to shine in the finals. Don’t care if it’s Smith( though his durability worries me), Weid, JVR even Petty with Tomlinson down back!

- Hunt our medi sub as provides flexibility

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,938]

14 hours ago, Kick_It_To_Pickett said:

Having just listened to David King and Joey Montagna on Fox Footy, the Bulldogs are certainties this week. In fact, according to King, the Dogs exposed us in Rd 1 and it was only luck we won. This bloke is a complete tool. He flips his opinion weekly. Can’t stand him

He also flips his opinion in the same slot that he's on.

In the same segment King said that the Bulldogs were average in their loss to St Kilda last week and Gerard Whatley didn't even interject regarding his error.

[Stu 969]

2 hours ago, CYB said:

It occurred to me last night. Wouldn't it be great if we played the Cats Alice Springs next year. 

😂 Scott would complain about how unusually wide the ground is and how the AFL should set maximum dimensions (but not minimum as that would impact their under 10’s sized field). 

[Diamond_Jim 12,627]

As has been said the run home is a nightmare and there's no other term for it.

Two road trips against top 4 teams and 3 against final 8 aspirants.

Add to that a sputtering forward structure and you have to wonder.

This is where a good coach shows his value. Motivating tired players is an art. In a strange way the prolonged camp arrangements of 2021 may have played into our hands in our success last year. Not suggesting that we repeat it but freshening up players mentally is a must.

I still maintain we wasted an opportunity to refresh/manage key players in the two week block against North and WCE.

Is the hunger there... we're about to find out starting on Saturday night

[Lucifers Hero 40,329]

At the start of the year August games looked like a training run with a good workout in the last round, based on where teams finished in 2021:

• Freo: 11th
• Magpies:  19th
• Blues:  13th
• Lions:  4th

Now they are desperate to take our top 2 or top 4 spot and we will be fighting for a double chance.

I had really counted on a win last night.   Top 4 would have been almost guaranteed. 

So deflating to lose and to let them take a chunk of % off us.

Edited July 24, 2022 by Lucifers Hero

[layzie 33,990]

6 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

At the start of the year August games looked like a training run with a good workout in the last round, based on where teams finished in 2021:

• Freo: 11th
• Magpies:  17th
• Blues:  13th
• Lions:  4th

Now they are desperate to take our top 2 or top 4 spot and we will be fighting for a double chance.

I had really counted on a win last night.   So deflating to lose and to let them take a chunk of % off us.

So, so deflating. 

[praha 11,240]

On 7/21/2022 at 12:45 PM, Diamond_Jim said:

As has been said the run home is a nightmare and there's no other term for it.

Two road trips against top 4 teams and 3 against final 8 aspirants.

Add to that a sputtering forward structure and you have to wonder.

This is where a good coach shows his value. Motivating tired players is an art. In a strange way the prolonged camp arrangements of 2021 may have played into our hands in our success last year. Not suggesting that we repeat it but freshening up players mentally is a must.

I still maintain we wasted an opportunity to refresh/manage key players in the two week block against North and WCE.

Is the hunger there... we're about to find out starting on Saturday night

Didn't you watch the North and WCE games? We WERE resting.

[spirit of norm smith 16,581]

Finals start now. 8 weeks.

2x blockbusters at the MCG.

2x big Road-trips.

 Each game is against top 4 contenders.  

Our record v bottom 8 teams. 11-0

Our record v top 8 teams. 2-5. !!!!! 

A lot of players need a rocket.  We thought 10-0 it was all just good enough. But the warning signs were there with 1/2 or 3/4 game efforts good enough.  Not any more !!! 

Edited July 24, 2022 by spirit of norm smith
M

[Lord Travis 10,763]

It seems the following are the likely outcomes after the four remaining matches

Win 4 - finish 1st or 2nd

Win 3 - finish 1st or 2nd

Win 2 - finish 4th to 6th

Win 1 - finish 7th or 8th

Win 0 - finish 7th to 9th

After starting the season 10-0, anything less than top four would be a poor result. It’s very difficult to win the flag from outside the top four, you’d need to be in ripping form and if we finished outside top four we’d be in anything but good form.

All our remaining matches are against teams that will play finals and could finish top four. Our record against top eight teams last year was brilliant. This year it’s abysmal. We’ll need to find form quickly or season 2022 is over. You’d have to consider it a waste considering where we were mid year and the fact we may lose some good players over the offseason and our list might get weaker in the short term from here.

Fire up Dees please!?!

[gregdemon 624]

5 minutes ago, Lord Travis said:

After starting the season 10-0, anything less than top four would be a poor result.

Correct   very poor   may win one more for year 14 wins  6  to 8th  prob  ...........    wasted year ....  to think half time against freo all was good with the world    then over the cliff......  rather disappointing really

[Kick_It_To_Pickett 3,293]

18 minutes ago, gregdemon said:

Correct   very poor   may win one more for year 14 wins  6  to 8th  prob  ...........    wasted year ....  to think half time against freo all was good with the world    then over the cliff......  rather disappointing really

I don’t see us beating any of our remaining opponents to be honest. Carlton and Collingwood will draw huge crowds and they will drag their team over the line. Carlton have been waiting to play us since preseason. We seem like a side happy to rest on the laurels of last year and lack killer instinct. As strange as it is to say, Friday against Freo might be our best chance of a win. Never easy winning in the west, especially of another 6 day break. But that’s where the season currently sits. We cannot get it done against the top sides. 

[Diamond_Jim 12,627]

It was always a horror run home and last night's loss makes it worse.

2 out of the last 4 would be a great result

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,938]

What are the odds of us going 0-4 on the run home and Dogs OR St Kilda  and Richmond going 4-0 on the run home?

We’ll miss finals if that happens.

If Dogs lose next week to Geelong we’ll probably unofficially qualify regardless of  us winning another game.

[At the break of Gawn 4,460]

2 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

What are the odds of us going 0-4 on the run home and Dogs OR St Kilda  and Richmond going 4-0 on the run home?

We’ll miss finals if that happens.

If Dogs lose next week to Geelong we’ll probably unofficially qualify regardless of  us winning another game.

Yep. I’ll be barracking hard for Geelong next week, because although I think it’s unlikely, we could lose all of the remaining 4.

Dogs are a great clearance side. If they get a hold of the Cats, they could steal it. 

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,938]

4 minutes ago, At the break of Gawn said:

Yep. I’ll be barracking hard for Geelong next week, because although I think it’s unlikely, we could lose all of the remaining 4.

Dogs are a great clearance side. If they get a hold of the Cats, they could steal it. 

Firstly, I think at worst we’ll scrounge at least one win, likely against Carlton. We played good enough footy at times last night to suggest we’re a genuine top 6 side.

Secondly, I expect (and hope) Geelong’s system to hold off the Dogs at Kardinia Park.

[At the break of Gawn 4,460]

3 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Our record v bottom 8 teams. 11-0

Our record v top 8 teams. 2-5. !!!!! 

I just remembered this was very similar to Port last year. Couldn’t beat a top 8 side until they beat the dogs in round 23 and then they smashed the Cats at home in the QF. Got found out in the prelim though…

[old55 23,687]

No drought breaking flag team has gone back to back since Adelaide 1997-8 and Brisbane 2001-3. Before that, you need to go back to Essendon in 1984-5. Plenty have missed this century - Port, Sydney, Geelong, Hawthorn, Collingwood, the Dogs, Richmond.

We're seeking to create some history. We've landed the fixture from hell.  We'll likely finish 5th, but we can still win it from there. Enjoy the journey - we're reigning Premiers.

[dl4e 5,851]

Don't worry we will win our last four. I can see it in my tea leaves.

[praha 11,240]

Honestly the way Collingwood looks atm they're probably my second tip for the flag after Geelong. Well coached and lots of experience with good skills. Add in ridiculous talent and they have the recipe for a flag.

Carlton are flakey and it's a 50/50 contest against them. Can't see us beating Freo, Brisbane I can't say now, but I'm probably most confident of all games because we match up well against them.

We seem destined for an elimination final not so much because of how WE are playing, moreso because of how others are playing. 

[Mr Steve 3,820]

I know this type of thinking is not allowed on this site, but I truly believe we are just an inch away from being unbeatable again. 

[DubDee 26,117]

Our form is 3-5

would be a miracle if we are still a flag contender come finals

[1964_2 2,357]

59 minutes ago, praha said:

Honestly the way Collingwood looks atm they're probably my second tip for the flag after Geelong. Well coached and lots of experience with good skills. Add in ridiculous talent and they have the recipe for a flag.

Carlton are flakey and it's a 50/50 contest against them. Can't see us beating Freo, Brisbane I can't say now, but I'm probably most confident of all games because we match up well against them.

We seem destined for an elimination final not so much because of how WE are playing, moreso because of how others are playing. 

You obviously said this before the bombers banged on 5 in a row.

[Engorged Onion 10,223]

32 minutes ago, DubDee said:

Our form is 3-5

would be a miracle if we are still a flag contender come finals

Only Geelong and Collingwood now right? Right?