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19 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

They lost to Essendon two weeks ago.

They have the easiest draw of probably any side in the comp but the odds of getting through it undefeated are low. Particularly if Collingwood and St Kilda are playing for top 4/8 in their last two games.

Implicit in my post though was that Brisbane and Fremantle also either get to 15 but pass us on percentage, or get to 16. Fremantle is 12% behind us (worse percentage than Sydney right now), so again assuming we don't shed too much percentage in our losses from here there's a fair chance they need to get to 16, which requires them to go 4-1 from Richmond (Marvel), us, the Dogs (Marvel), West Coast and GWS (away). They can do it, but they're in patchy form and could easily go 1-2 from their next three.

So for us to miss top 4 on 15-7, three of the following five things all have to happen:

  1. Brisbane goes 3-2 but makes up the 6.6% gap on us, or goes 4-1 or better
  2. Fremantle goes 3-2 but makes up the 12% gap on us, or goes 4-1 or better
  3. Collingwood goes 3-2 but makes up the 26.5% gap on us, or goes 4-1 or better
  4. Sydney goes 4-1 but makes up the 12% gap on us, or goes 5-0
  5. Carlton goes 4-1 but makes up the 19% gap on us, or goes 5-0

Even if Sydney does pass us, two of the other sides have to do it too, and I'd rate Carlton and Collingwood's chances low. Which means both Fremantle and Brisbane have to do it.

So I still think 2-3 is the minimum mark to get us into the top 4. 3-2 makes it pretty much certain.

Having said all that, conceding those last three goals to Port really disappointed me. The extra percentage buffer over Fremantle and Sydney would have been very helpful.

Excellent analysis thanks.

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Last year after 18 rounds we were 13 - 3 - 1 with a percientage of 127.8% and having 2 losses and a draw in the previous 5 games.

This year we are 13 - 4 - 0 with a percentage of 132.6% and having 2 losses in the previous 5 games.

Round 19 this year (as indeed last year) we play Western Bulldogs.  They were second on the ladder at this point last year.

Last year we lost to the Bulldogs and then were undefeated for the rest of the season.

I could live with that again.

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16 hours ago, John Demonic said:

The doggies pose a different challenge than our last 2 meetings, with Bruce & Naughton back together for the first time since his injury. Easy to forget he was leading the Coleman last year at one stage 

It might be too far gone for them, and we can bury them with a great performance, whoever they have in their team. But I still have them at their best, a harder challenge than Freo, so I concur.

 

Bruce did nothing last week and will be amazed if he does a lot more this week! When you look at Tomlinson’s progress after coming back, anything close to Bruce’s best will be next season. 

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Woe to those who underestimate our opposition

Collingwood are in ripper form currently, they are quick, hunt the ball and have class across the ground. McCrae is a good coach and their ability to win tight games is very good. 

Geelong are also in very good nick but historically cant get over the line. Even with their vets slowing down, they managed to pummel us at the contest and will be full of energy come finals time. 

 

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2 minutes ago, MrFreeze said:

Woe to those who underestimate our opposition

Collingwood are in ripper form currently, they are quick, hunt the ball and have class across the ground. McCrae is a good coach and their ability to win tight games is very good. 

Geelong are also in very good nick but historically cant get over the line. Even with their vets slowing down, they managed to pummel us at the contest and will be full of energy come finals time. 

 

Woe to those who underestimate the Demons!

Pies limp over line against North and Crows and are in ripper form? Very very lucky to have only lost 5 games!

However I think Pies are on the up, but they are like Demons of 2018 - soft draw, some lucky wins and finish higher than they should!

Woe to those who underestimate Demons!

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1 hour ago, layzie said:

Does that mean 16 wins banks top 4?

For us, it's near-certain but technically not guaranteed.

If we get to 16, three sides (other than Geelong) need to get to 16 with a better percentage than us, or get to 17 to pass us.

Sydney and Carlton can't get to 17 so they'd have to win out and then close the percentage gaps (12% and 19% respectively). Obviously if they win all five games their percentage is a fair chance of increasing but those sorts of gaps probably require us to suffer a large-ish loss.

Brisbane, Fremantle and Collingwood would have to go 4-1 and then close the percentage gap (easiest for Brisbane at 6.6% behind, harder for Fremantle at 12%, pretty much impossible for Collingwood 26% behind), or run the table.

Remember that we play Brisbane, Fremantle, Collingwood and Carlton, and if we go 3-2 we have to beat at least two of them. Likely rules out Carlton and Collingwood passing us. Remember also that Collingwood plays Sydney, which forces a loss between them.

Bringing all that together, for us to go 3-2 but miss top 4 almost certainly requires Sydney to win out and close the 12% gap between us. 

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1 hour ago, titan_uranus said:

For us, it's near-certain but technically not guaranteed.

If we get to 16, three sides (other than Geelong) need to get to 16 with a better percentage than us, or get to 17 to pass us.

Sydney and Carlton can't get to 17 so they'd have to win out and then close the percentage gaps (12% and 19% respectively). Obviously if they win all five games their percentage is a fair chance of increasing but those sorts of gaps probably require us to suffer a large-ish loss.

Brisbane, Fremantle and Collingwood would have to go 4-1 and then close the percentage gap (easiest for Brisbane at 6.6% behind, harder for Fremantle at 12%, pretty much impossible for Collingwood 26% behind), or run the table.

Remember that we play Brisbane, Fremantle, Collingwood and Carlton, and if we go 3-2 we have to beat at least two of them. Likely rules out Carlton and Collingwood passing us. Remember also that Collingwood plays Sydney, which forces a loss between them.

Bringing all that together, for us to go 3-2 but miss top 4 almost certainly requires Sydney to win out and close the 12% gap between us. 

Those game against Carlton Brisbane Collingwood and Fremantle if they beat us every goal they win by counts as two so you almost have to half the percentage gap.  That is Brisbane are 89 points behind us so a 45 point win would close that cap.

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If we go 2-3 (and the two wins are against WB and Carlton) it would see us having a record against the other top 6 teams (Geel, Bris, Fre, Syd, Pies) of 1 win/7 losses. You couldn't just expect us to flick on a switch and run the table in the finals with that kind of record.

3-2 needs to be the minimum goal and it would be great if two of those three were against Freo, Brisbane or Collingwood as we'll no doubt be facing at least one of those sides in September

Anything more and we'll be top 2 and in pole position for a home MCG prelim. Probably Saturday twilight if we're the second ranked side.

 

  

Edited by Bring-Back-Powell
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9 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Would love it if the top 4 were:

  • Geelong
  • Melbourne
  • Brisbane
  • Any team that can beat Geelong

and our QF is vs Brisbane at the G.

Would be as good as it gets IMO.

Sydney (2016) and Collingwood (2019) have beaten Geelong at the G in finals.

Further to that Sydney have beaten Geelong this year and in 2021. They also only lost to them by 6 points in 2020 when both sides were opposite ends of the ladder.

Perhaps Sydney have the wood over Geelong?

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11 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Would be as good as it gets IMO.

Sydney (2016) and Collingwood (2019) have beaten Geelong at the G in finals.

Further to that Sydney have beaten Geelong this year and in 2021. They also only lost to them by 6 points in 2020 when both sides were opposite ends of the ladder.

Perhaps Sydney have the wood over Geelong?

I reckon the first 3 will happen.

Just not sure who will be 4th, most probably Sydney.

Guess it doesn't matter who is 4th as we will most likely have to beat Geelong at some stage.  Just prefer it to be in a PF or the GF.

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13 minutes ago, BDA said:

I don't want the Swans to finish top 4. They play the G very well and will have no fear of playing us or anyone else there. I hope they chit the bed in an elim final like they did last year

Where Sydney finish is an outcome beyond our control unlike that of many other top 8 teams.

On paper they have a very easy draw so prepare yourself for them being 4th.

What might stop them being top 4 is themselves - they haven't won many games in a row, let alone 5 and that would need to change.

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4 hours ago, BDA said:

I don't want the Swans to finish top 4. They play the G very well and will have no fear of playing us or anyone else there. I hope they chit the bed in an elim final like they did last year

Sydney and Collingwood are our absolute bogey sides.

Would be hard to stomach if either of those side do the business on us in the finals.

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5 hours ago, Lucifers Hero said:

A curiosity question:  why is the Freo game so significant?

The reasons are my own and no means fact but it's just how I'm thinking it though:

- I feel we need another scalp against a top team. Will help with the psychology going into September

- It will separate us further from another top 4 challenger 

- If there's a chance to have the hard work done before the Rd 23 clash against the Lions I'd prefer that to leaving it for that game. If the positions become somewhat settled by then it gives us a chance to rest some guys.

Had we knocked off Geelong this one wouldn't matter as much but games like this mean it's all in our hands, we must get it done in Perth IMO.

Edited by layzie
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If we want to go back to back we need to win at least 4 of these games, ideally all 5 and really build some momentum. 

It’s easy to forget with all the negative talk in the media that we’ve won 3 of our last 4 and we’ve had good leads in 3 of our 4 losses. 

Even the Geelong game we weren’t that far off the mark in my opinion. 

Beat the dogs and build some momentum in the run home. Beating the dockers could really hurt their top 4 chances. But I suspect we’d like them to finish 4th coz they could definitely beat Geelong in Melbourne. 

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1 hour ago, one_demon said:

Personally I don't think we're winning it this year.  Something just ain't right.

I'm starting to think that way also. It certainly does not have the same feeling as last year. 

I was thinking we could crush teams coming into the finals last year. Now I'm not even confident that we could make the prelim.

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