Umpire Margetts is a bit of a bad-luck charm for Dees

[waynewussell 5,748]

Umpire Margetts started his illustrious AFL umpiring career in 2002. In the twenty years he has adorned the stage he has umpired 29 MFC games. We have won 8 of them! I think we should pay more attention to his appointments when tipping!

Edited July 5, 2021 by waynewussell

[Northern Summer 292]

Our winning record since 2002 probably isn't much greater than 8 wins per 29 games...

[faultydet 7,594]

24 minutes ago, waynewussell said:

Umpire Margetts started his illustrious AFL umpiring career in 2002. In the twenty years he has adorned the stage he has umpired 29 MFC games. We have won 8 of them! I think we should pay more attention to his appointments when tipping!

You believe in Tarot, don't you?

[waynewussell 5,748]

Our winning % in those 21 years is around 36%... Our strike rate with Mr Margetts is 24%... You win some, you lose some! I'm only referring to the trend. I think the trend is a factor when tipping.

[The heart beats true 18,128]

I’m not going to lie, I really don’t like him.

[Dr. Gonzo 24,221]

West Coasts #1 ticket holder isn't he? ?

[waynewussell 5,748]

Surprisingly, he has only umpired in 3 Dees v WC games in that time... but yes we lost them all! Playing in Subiaco & Perth the main predictor there!

[Roger Mellie 4,032]

Remember years ago (can't recall the opponents, but WCE sounds like a good fit) where he paid us 1 free kick for the game and our opponents 11 (or something like that). After that, he didn't umpire MFC games for a few years. I wish that was still the case.

[Old Man Rivers 326]

8 minutes ago, Roger Mellie said:

Remember years ago (can't recall the opponents, but WCE sounds like a good fit) where he paid us 1 free kick for the game and our opponents 11 (or something like that). After that, he didn't umpire MFC games for a few years. I wish that was still the case.

I would assume that was close to the same differential last week with his decisions for & against. He was brutal on us. 

[Fritta and Turner 4,421]

Who was the umpire who didnt pay the mark to Jimmy Stynes in the goal square in the dying secs and we lost.  The following day the umpire announced his retirement.

Or did I just nightmare that....

[loges 6,767]

4 minutes ago, Jontee said:

Who was the umpire who didnt pay the mark to Jimmy Stynes in the goal square in the dying secs and we lost.  The following day the umpire announced his retirement.

Or did I just nightmare that....

Who was the umpire who didn't pay the mark to Fritsch early in the last quarter ?

[Fritta and Turner 4,421]

1 minute ago, loges said:

Who was the umpire who didn't pay the mark to Fritsch early in the last quarter ?

Dont tell me he is back out of retirement!!!!!????

[Tony Tea 2,809]

If you reckon we might be jinxed by Margetts, consult a few Freo fans and have any Demon gripes put in perspective.

[Deemania since 56 6,640]

1 hour ago, Roger Mellie said:

Remember years ago (can't recall the opponents, but WCE sounds like a good fit) where he paid us 1 free kick for the game and our opponents 11 (or something like that). After that, he didn't umpire MFC games for a few years. I wish that was still the case.

We manage players, like all teams. Why can't the umpires be 'managed' as effectively?

[John Crow Batty 8,864]

I had the privilege to watching him dismantle our solid lead in the last quarter of round 9 in 2019 at Optus Oval. Even the WC supporters around me acknowledged he won the game for them. 

Edited July 6, 2021 by John Crow Batty

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,787]

12 hours ago, waynewussell said:

Our winning % in those 21 years is around 36%... Our strike rate with Mr Margetts is 24%... You win some, you lose some! I'm only referring to the trend. I think the trend is a factor when tipping.

There are three ways to interpret this data when predicting for future games:

1. When Margetts umpires the data suggests we're more likely to lose because our win rate with him umpiring is 33% worse than when he's not the umpire
2. When Margetts umpires the data suggests we're more likely to win because the law of large numbers (otherwise known as "the law of averages") would indicate that the win rate with games he umpires should move toward the mean (ie, to get from 24% to 36% would require us to win more than we lose).
3. The data is meaningless

[drdrake 3,178]

49 minutes ago, John Crow Batty said:

I had the privilege to watching him dismantle our solid lead in the last quarter of round 9 in 2019 at Optus Oval. Even the WC supporters around me acknowledged he won the game for them. 

I think most supporters see him walk out on the ground and cringed a bit.  He has done well to remain at this level for the time he has.

[DeeZone 9,848]

Do you all remember that game in Perth when we were pretty poor we had 1 free kick at half time to their 20. The Magoos refused to pay us a free and were completely swept away by the crowd adulation. I started to get some really dark thoughts about their unashamed cheating.!!!!

[Supermercado 2,797]

Days ending in y have been a bad luck charm for us most years. Knowing who any of the umpires are other than the celebrities like Razor Ray is weird.

[poita 3,902]

Who knew that we lost on Saturday because of umpiring decisions? I had assumed it was because (a) we are incapable of putting the ball between the big posts, (b) most of the players looked completely disinterested for most of the game and (c) the opposition played better than us.

[Skuit 10,031]

29 minutes ago, DeeZone said:

Do you all remember that game in Perth when we were pretty poor we had 1 free kick at half time to their 20. The Magoos refused to pay us a free and were completely swept away by the crowd adulation. I started to get some really dark thoughts about their unashamed cheating.!!!!

I think you're thinking R2 2012. Margetts didn't umpire that day. 

[Rossmillan 589]

Umpires should be like jurors, each team should be able to have a challenge to strike ones they don’t like from the final jury :.)

[Brownie 5,981]

Yep, First goal to Toby Geene early on Saturday was a freebie from Margetts (no. 6 yeah?)

Greene straight armed / open palm directly to Hibberds face, ball went loose, Greene picked it up and dropped his knees as he was being tackled by us and pulled a "professional free" as the comentators called it.

Should have been holding the ball against but you know, why not give GSW one early to get 'em rolling.

I know umps make mistakes but dead set, he was right there.

[Clintosaurus 7,849]

Umps like Margetts seem to me to be following instructions, presumably from the umpires coach, but in reality from AFL HQ.

[DeeZone 9,848]

1 hour ago, Skuit said:

I think you're thinking R2 2012. Margetts didn't umpire that day. 

Ha ha must have been 3 clones Skuit.