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2020 Doomsday Scenario

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What’s your 2020 Doomsday Scenario?

Another Preliminary Final heartbreak ?, Demons start season 0-3 ?: Your AFL club’s doomsday scenario >>> Your AFL club’s doomsday scenario for 2020 season 


MELBOURNE â€“ The Demons start the season 0-3 

It’s a long way back when you start the season with three losses on the trot – and Simon Goodwin’s side don’t have the easiest of introductions in 2020. The Demons travel to Perth to play West Coast in Round One before taking on GWS at the MCG in Round Two. In both matches, Melbourne’s opposition will start as favourites. A home game against Fremantle in Round Three shapes as the club’s best opportunity to walk away with the four points, but even that match isn’t straightforward. But start the season at 0-3 and you can all but kiss finals goodbye.

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      On 12/02/2020 at 22:10, Demonland said:

    What’s your 2020 Doomsday Scenario?

    Another Preliminary Final heartbreak ?, Demons start season 0-3 ?: Your AFL club’s doomsday scenario >>> Your AFL club’s doomsday scenario for 2020 season 


    MELBOURNE â€“ The Demons start the season 0-3 

    It’s a long way back when you start the season with three losses on the trot – and Simon Goodwin’s side don’t have the easiest of introductions in 2020. The Demons travel to Perth to play West Coast in Round One before taking on GWS at the MCG in Round Two. In both matches, Melbourne’s opposition will start as favourites. A home game against Fremantle in Round Three shapes as the club’s best opportunity to walk away with the four points, but even that match isn’t straightforward. But start the season at 0-3 and you can all but kiss finals goodbye.

    Sloppy "journalism". Right now, it's quite correct that our opposition are the favourites, but if we beat WCE in Round 1 and GWS loses their first game to Geelong, we could well start favourites. To write definitively that the opposition "will start as favourites" is just silly and asking to be criticised.

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    I like Brisbane’s Doomsday scenario.

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    Hard to argue with that really. Getting a win in R1 is not the be all and end all, but imagine sneaking R1 in Perth, what a boost that would be.

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      On 12/02/2020 at 22:53, Demon3 said:

    Hard to argue with that really. Getting a win in R1 is not the be all and end all, but imagine sneaking R1 in Perth, what a boost that would be.

    Last year when we lost the first two on the trot the stats were that not many teams ever make the finals from 0-2. 0-3 would be a disaster.

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      On 12/02/2020 at 23:13, Demonland said:

    Last year when we lost the first two on the trot the stats were that not many teams ever make the finals from 0-2. 0-3 would be a disaster.

    It certainly would be for membership numbers.

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    Goodwin will be on the seek website Monday morning looking for a new job if we go 0-3 

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      On 12/02/2020 at 22:53, Demon3 said:

    Hard to argue with that really. Getting a win in R1 is not the be all and end all, but imagine sneaking R1 in Perth, what a boost that would be.

    Would be huge.

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      On 12/02/2020 at 23:46, JV7 said:

    Goodwin will be on the seek website Monday morning looking for a new job if we go 0-3 

    The interim step is usually traveling to the US to do some short course in business or sports management.

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    • Haha 1

    Bad loss in Round 1

    The distant Vultures will begin to descend

    Is the Club equipped to fight back?

    (A win over there would be huge)

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    Don’t think we’ll win the first two, but we should beat Freo. 
     

    WCE over there will take something ridiculously special, and GWS are in rude health right now. Whoever manages their injuries is doing a great job. 

     

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    Coming from behind Versus West Coast to get close is not a win, but it would be ok.

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    The first two are bloody tough but the draw opens up a bit between rounds 3-11 as six of those games involve non 2019 finalists and another against Essendon who I don't rate this year.

    We just need to keep our percentage intact after round 2 with two close losses and then launch from round 3 onwards. 

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      On 12/02/2020 at 22:51, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

    Sloppy "journalism". Right now, it's quite correct that our opposition are the favourites, but if we beat WCE in Round 1 and GWS loses their first game to Geelong, we could well start favourites. To write definitively that the opposition "will start as favourites" is just silly and asking to be criticised.

    Couldn't have said it better.  Fox sports/news Corp rubbish and click bait. 

     

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    0-2 doesn't worry me, unless we got smashed in both contests.  GWS and the Eagles on their home deck are tough propositions for any team to kick off the season.

    However, following that up to be, say 1-5 or 2-6 would be a horror scenario and one we probably couldn't come back from.  As BPP says above, our draw is much better after the first two, but if we do lose those two then we'll need to ensure we turn the tide pretty quickly.

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    History says you start 0-3 you will be highly unlikely to make finals. An added factor for us is that we have a whole new coaching panel that needs to gel and have their act together ASAP.

    Beat WCE and all of a sudden our season is off to a flyer.

    Get well beaten by WCE and the pressure will start. Given our background and recent history, an 0-3 start will likely our season is all over and Goodwin and the playing group will be under huge pressure.

    Its a  binary outcome for the Dees it would seem.

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      On 13/02/2020 at 02:27, Damo said:

    Coming from behind Versus West Coast to get close is not a win, but it would be ok.

    No it would still be a loss.

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      On 13/02/2020 at 03:30, jnrmac said:

    History says you start 0-3 you will be highly unlikely to make finals. An added factor for us is that we have a whole new coaching panel that needs to gel and have their act together ASAP.

    Beat WCE and all of a sudden our season is off to a flyer.

    Get well beaten by WCE and the pressure will start. Given our background and recent history, an 0-3 start will likely our season is all over and Goodwin and the playing group will be under huge pressure.

    Its a  binary outcome for the Dees it would seem.

    Particularly Goodwin jnr. It is difficult to replace a dozen players but easy to replace one coach

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      On 13/02/2020 at 03:21, Demon17 said:

    Couldn't have said it better.  Fox sports/news Corp rubbish and click bait. 

     

    While it is click bait etc, it is true that as of now you'd have to say they would be favourites to beat us. 

    The AFL hasn't done us any favours in kicking off the season this way even if the rest of the draw looks good.

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    Only 3 teams in the last decade have made finals from a 0-2 start to the season. Those are tough odds to overcome. Those teams were Sydney in both 2014 and 2017, and Collingwood in 2018.

    Only one team has made finals from 0-3 or worse - Sydney 2017.

    If we, or any other team are 0-3, it’s basically game over.

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    I'm more  concerned  about  fighting  off  the  inevitable corona  virus  zombies 

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      On 13/02/2020 at 06:04, Lord Travis said:

    Only 3 teams in the last decade have made finals from a 0-2 start to the season. Those are tough odds to overcome. Those teams were Sydney in both 2014 and 2017, and Collingwood in 2018.

    Only one team has made finals from 0-3 or worse - Sydney 2017.

    If we, or any other team are 0-3, it’s basically game over.

    I think you would have to look at the scenario a little deeper. Playing WC over there (where I suspect we will get the 2 WC umpires)

    Followed up by the AFL love child and runner up in last years Premiership, would not be the normal start to a season in most of those cases. So those two loses would normally come at a different part of the year. Getting those 2 out of the way in the first 2 rounds shouldn't have any bearing on the rest of the season.

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      On 13/02/2020 at 11:13, dworship said:

    I think you would have to look at the scenario a little deeper. Playing WC over there (where I suspect we will get the 2 WC umpires)

    Followed up by the AFL love child and runner up in last years Premiership, would not be the normal start to a season in most of those cases. So those two loses would normally come at a different part of the year. Getting those 2 out of the way in the first 2 rounds shouldn't have any bearing on the rest of the season.

    It’s not impossible, but going by data this century it’s a 1.6% chance of finals if we are 0-2. It’s a 0.5% chance of finals if we’re 0-3. 

    Tough start to the season for us, but we just have to win.

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