Whilst I was personally never in the camp of expecting that the MFC would sail through to a grand final birth with ease this year, it would be a huge understatement to say that I've been disappointed in our performances so far this season. 

Putting the disapointment of going zip and three so far asides, I'm not yet prepared to say we are cooked. Looking for reasons without trying to stray into the area of excuses, our preseaon preperation was rubbish and I think that has had a clear impact on our system and perhaps even fitness levels nessacery to complete in the modern game.  We were hit with a number of injuries to key players like AVB, Hannan, Lewis, J Smith, Garlett, May on the cusp of the season that has significantly impacted our game style and particularly our ability to score. If I try to look less emotionally at our performances to date, Geelong game asides, we have been in compeditive positions against two potential top 8 sides, whilst playing some of the worst football in the club's recient history.  Despite what the statistics say, we currently sit just two games/8 premiership points outside the top 8 and only 4 games behind mooted top 4 aspirants Collingwood and Richmond. Whilst I don't see much of a future for our season playing at the level we have been, I really struggle to see how we could play that badly for the entire season. 

If we can correct the defensive issues that have plagued our season to date, I still see pleanty of opportunity for us to build our season once we are playing a much better brand of football and hopefully start getting much closer to a full list to pick from.  I think we have a more mature list than many of the teams presently over achieving as well as one a younger one than teams loaded with old fossils like Hawthorn (and possibly Collingwood - thinking of Sidebottom and Pendlbry), both of which could drop away as the season progresses.  i.e. it could possibly get worse, but will more likely get better for us from here.

I refuse to accept the utter pessimism and negativity surrounding our team and individuals within it.  Even if we ultimately end up missing finals this season, I'm still hopeful that we can use it as a season to keep building into the future ...but I'm not at that point yet.

CARN THE MIGHTY DEMONS!!!

If we are 9th-18th after round 23....

The old "Two games outside the eight".  That doesn't mean a team wins two games and are in eight.  They have to win two games and teams above them have to lose two games and the percentage also has to be higher.  It's not close.

When it's mathematically impossible

And then there's always a chance that some team will do an 'Essendon'

We are quite capable but right now,  we're under performing to a large degree.  We'll probably put in our best performance for the season tonight but that still might not be enough.

The season isn't over if we lose tonight but would be on deaths door.  We would be winless, out of form and with a poor percentage.

Edited April 10, 20196 yr by Petraccattack

If we win tonight and next week against the saints then we are back where we were after round 5 last year , but still would then require a run of wins . 

lose tonight and then it’s a bridge too far I’m afraid , start preparing for 2020 

If we need 14 wins to comfortably make the eight , then from here we can only afford to drop 5 more games (after round 3) for the rest of the season , when you look at it that way , it’s a pretty daunting task and we’d need to truly be a top 4 form like team from rounds 4-22 to maintain that sort of consistency. Also remembering we still have to play WC, pies and Richmond all twice !!!

And then we would only scrape into the 8 so would need form and a lot of luck with the draw to do any damage in September  

I feel like I’m getting deja vu from the Daniher years 

We are lucky in a sense this year that a lot of top rated teams are off to really poor starts... Adelaide, Essendon, Collingwood, Richmond and us all in most peoples top 8. Fully expecting for the dogs, lions dockers, hawks and power to drop off as the above teams start to pick up... Could be a year where 11-12 wins is top 8 and 14-15 is top 4. 

I know we wont play this badly for the year, and we will get on a run, it just depends on how late we leave it... If we can get to 7-6 around the bye I would back us in to finish strong and could very well end up top 4 with May and Lever in and settled. 

Given our preseason surgeries and injuries I for one haven’t been expecting early season wins. Hoping but not expecting to be 2 and 1 now. Was thinking our season wasn’t really going to get started until rd 4 so jagging an early win or 2 would have been good. Still expect us to win at least 12 from here 

3-4 after Round 7 would be possible with a win tonight, and would be just outside the 8.

13 minutes ago, GCDee said:

We are lucky in a sense this year that a lot of top rated teams are off to really poor starts... Adelaide, Essendon, Collingwood, Richmond and us all in most peoples top 8. Fully expecting for the dogs, lions dockers, hawks and power to drop off as the above teams start to pick up... Could be a year where 11-12 wins is top 8 and 14-15 is top 4. 

I know we wont play this badly for the year, and we will get on a run, it just depends on how late we leave it... If we can get to 7-6 around the bye I would back us in to finish strong and could very well end up top 4 with May and Lever in and settled. 

Spot on 

I reckon lose tonight and we will struggle to make finals, as we don't play our home ground very well and cant consistently win there, especially with a harder draw. while not expecting us to be guaranteed finals, I was looking forward to this season to see what change in game style Goodwin and co had planned for us to change this, but apparently it wasn't a problem for him, so changed nothing by the looks of it. plus we seem just too underdone this season to have an impact atm. I reckon we will improve in the back half of the season, but there might be a bit of chopping and changing of the team to go yet before we find a combo of players who can win games consistently.

if we lose tonight our season won't be cooked - it will be cremated.

We're not cooked...but we're on the grill.

Rare, med-rare, medium, well-done ??

Quite frankly I'd be encouraged to see some basics accomplished...maybe string 2 qtrs together.

The season ??  We'd not only have to win one game but suddenly string a whole bunch together.

Sorry just fanciful rubbish at this point.

Absolutely gone if we lose tonight. Rather than flogging a dead horse which might see you scrape into the eight best to plan for next year. In particular if we are gone I would take absolutely no chances with Lever. If he does another knee then it turn into an unmitigated disaster. Of the other players mentioned they are either injury prone (AVB); unfit to play a season out (May) over rated (Gartlett) or just to old (Lewis). I cant see these players leading a premiership or even finals assault. Some of the team that are flying such as GC; Brisbane; Port leave us for dead in term of pace and fitness levels. Also I just cant see us competing with the heavy weight. Of the team currently in the eight I think the only suspect teams are Dogs & Freo. The Pies are a certainty so that leave one slot and it hard to see us passing the Swans; Tigers and Crows. No unfortunately where gone and in some respect it maybe a blessing as it will give May/Lever time to be firing next year plus a top draft pick to rectify our key issue outside run. If you factored that in to our team then we would not only make the finals but could be a genuine threat,

16 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

We're not cooked...but we're on the grill.

Rare, med-rare, medium, well-done ??

Quite frankly I'd be encouraged to see some basics accomplished...maybe string 2 qtrs together.

The season ??  We'd not only have to win one game but suddenly string a whole bunch together.

Sorry just fanciful rubbish at this point.

Totally agree. The season is over as far as any meaningful premiership aspirations this year. We need to treat this season as a development opportunity for the team and our game plan. Unfortunately several players will retire at year’s end (at the very least Lewis, Garlett, Jones, and most likely Vandenberg due to ongoing injury). Recruitment needs to be top level for any chance of finals next year. Hawthorn and Geelong seem to be very good at this. Perhaps we could follow their example in recruitment and game plans?

Also we need to be ruthless in delisting the many spuds, duds and lazy players in our team that have put us in this situation yet again.

Is a proper training facility in Jolimont still on the cards? This could be helpful too. Or a training facility in our heartland eg the Malvern oval.

I said at the start of the year if we can get to 3-3 after Anzac Eve we'll be able to build a solid season. We're taking an unorthodox approach to getting there but until becomes impossible I'll hold out hope... 

But I have to admit it would seem more fitting for us to win tonight then lose to the Saints at the G.

Season will be over in about 12 hours

Lose tonite and we are gone. I think last week was the same but definately this week. We will have to start preparing for next year in round 5.

Once we lose 10 games we will be done but still a chance until we reach that shock/horror situation, I think that we won the last 6 in a row in 1998 and made it into the finals. Just Saying.................!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I havent stuck a fork in us yet but i have already set the table ready to go.

To be honest, it probably won't be a bad thing if this year is a write off for us. Here is my reason why:

- Lever and May will be able to play some games out together towards the end of the year with then rolling into pre season fit and ready to do a whole summer of training together. Round 1 next year a fit May and Lever are ready to go.

- We start pre season early and half our list wont need end of year surgeries. So the likes of Oliver, Viney, Jones, Melksham, Hannan, Harmes etc hit the ground running and complete a full pre season.

- Potential early 1st round draft pick which we will hopefully use on a outside running gun midfielder. Need more depth in our midfield.

- Hopefully an overhaul of our list. Clear deadwood the likes of Tim Smith, JKH, Keilty, Maynard who have just hung around too long for little impact.

- Guys like Weideman and Fritsch will start next year close to the 50 game mark. Both huge talents who will be much better players next year.

- Guys like Brayshaw, Harmes, Petracca Oliver, Salem will be closing in on 90 games start of next year also.

Something to definitely work with for sure going into next year.

1 hour ago, chook fowler said:

if we lose tonight our season won't be cooked - it will be cremated.

The result will not matter so much as the way we play. We can lose several more games and still make it, but how we play tonight and over the next few weeks will give us the answer.  

We need to win 2 of the next 3, if not,  we're cooked! 

3 minutes ago, hemingway said:

The result will not matter so much as the way we play. We can lose several more games and still make it, but how we play tonight and over the next few weeks will give us the answer.  

I agree, in the main. Much to be revealed...about much.

However Ernest should we continue losing then our demise is surer than the RMS Titanic........ there'd be no ice-ing this cake

In a fashion our dilemma reminds me of:

So..best out of3

make that best of 5

best of 9

Would you believe.......