The Jesse Hogan Panic Room - all contract talk here

[Ethan Tremblay 28,470]

Stu cracked a joke, this thread really is out of control.

[Mickey 4,187]

57 minutes ago, stuie said:

This is getting a bit silly now. SWYL will set you all straight, it's Cam Schwab's desk's fault.

 

I thought it was the whiteboard...

[stuie 7,374]

10 minutes ago, Mickey said:

I thought it was the whiteboard...

Only one day a week...

 

[Ted Lasso 16,954]

Maybe if we throw in our 2017 first round pick and Christian Petracca freo might give us Zac Dawson?

[Skuit 9,310]

I'm going to attempt some rare middle-ground here.

I think Hogan is fantastic and would be a very valuable asset for us going forward.

Most of the criticism of the kid is massively unwarranted, but 

Some of the hype probably has to be put in check also.

He has been exceptional as a developing key forward in terms of comparison to previous out-and-out AFL forward champions.

My concern is his ceiling. Is he getting close to it already? He was big-bodied at a young age in a shite team so, even while  taking multiple defenders early in his career, his comparative stats may not be valid. He will have to keep taking multiples unless we can add to Watts/Weid etc.

The issues I see are: he's not as physically fluid as some of the greats, and he doesn't have the kicking range. Both big issues for me and have to be acknowledged. He is decent one-on-one but that concept is practically outdated and he struggles for pack-marks when out of position.

He's proven however he can be pretty handy and creative on the ground.

But sadly, I don't think he'll ever be a Buddy or Carey or even an Ox. Maybe closer to Neitz?

So the question comes down to his contract v trade value. I hope he stays. But I think we might do okay with the compensation and without him.

Yes, I'm priming myself for his heartbreaking departure.

 

[Diamond_Jim 11,941]

I think there is a role for a good full forward in today's football  but that role is diminshing as it is replaced by the quick runner to space. In a way the hit up chf is becoming more important as the link player.

Very happy to keep Hogan but if it's at a price or in a manner that disrupts the club I am also happy to see the right trade made.

[daisycutter 28,637]

1 hour ago, Mickey said:

I thought it was the whiteboard...

no it was the blazer

[The Reverend 1,718]

4 minutes ago, daisycutter said:

no it was the blazer

Could be the bugler.

 

[Deeoldfart 7,801]

28 minutes ago, The Reverend said:

Could be the bugler.

 

Also wrong!.  'twas actually the 'Red & Bluerprint'

[stevethemanjordan 6,952]

53 minutes ago, Skuit said:

I'm going to attempt some rare middle-ground here.

I think Hogan is fantastic and would be a very valuable asset for us going forward.

Most of the criticism of the kid is massively unwarranted, but 

Some of the hype probably has to be put in check also.

He has been exceptional as a developing key forward in terms of comparison to previous out-and-out AFL forward champions.

My concern is his ceiling. Is he getting close to it already? He was big-bodied at a young age in a shite team so, even while  taking multiple defenders early in his career, his comparative stats may not be valid. He will have to keep taking multiples unless we can add to Watts/Weid etc.

The issues I see are: he's not as physically fluid as some of the greats, and he doesn't have the kicking range. Both big issues for me and have to be acknowledged. He is decent one-on-one but that concept is practically outdated and he struggles for pack-marks when out of position.

He's proven however he can be pretty handy and creative on the ground.

But sadly, I don't think he'll ever be a Buddy or Carey or even an Ox. Maybe closer to Neitz?

So the question comes down to his contract v trade value. I hope he stays. But I think we might do okay with the compensation and without him.

Yes, I'm priming myself for his heartbreaking departure.

 

Strongly agree.

Cops way too much criticism and in my view it's because people genuinely overrate him.

That's how I see it anyway.

 

Edited September 7, 2016 by stevethemanjordan

[Ted Lasso 16,954]

On 9/7/2016 at 6:16 PM, stevethemanjordan said:

Strongly agree.

Cops way too much criticism and in my view it's because people genuinely overrate him.

That's how I see it anyway.

 

It's amazing, Jesse is still performing better than just about any second year key forward in the modern era, in a poor-average team, won the rising star, 2 top 10 best and fairest finishes and absolutely no indication he's going anywhere beyond the fact that 12 months away from him coming out of contract he hasn't already signed an extension.

[Mach5 4,482]

58 minutes ago, daisycutter said:

no it was the blazer

Anyone else notice that the All-Australians wear similar blazers, but it isn't criticised..?

[Skuit 9,310]

16 minutes ago, Abe said:

It's amazing, Jesse is still performing better than just about any second year key forward in the modern era, in a poor-average team, won the rising star, 2 top 10 best and fairest finishes and absolutely no indication he's going anywhere beyond the fact that 12 months away from him coming out of contract he hasn't already signed an extension.

So Abe. Did you intend to address the issues that stevethemanjordan was responding to? Jesse is still performing better than just about any second-year key forward in the modern era (as an age comparison). Won the Rising Star. Two top-ten club b&fs. That's all recognised. But is that any genuine indication of his actual ceiling or have these achievements and accolades disguised his limitations (and this isn't a knock on the kid - we're talking the rare air of an absolute AFL superstar which many are expecting)?

Edited September 7, 2016 by Skuit

[Ted Lasso 16,954]

On 9/7/2016 at 6:33 PM, Skuit said:

So Abe. Did you wish to address the issues that stevethemanjordan was responding to? Jesse is still performing better than just about any second-year key forward in the modern era (as an age comparison). Won the Rising Star. Two top-ten club b&fs. That's all recognised. But is that any genuine indication of his actual ceiling or have these achievements and accolades disguised his limitations (and this isn't a knock on the kid - we're talking the rare air of an absolute AFL superstar which many are expecting)?

It's certainly an indication that he has everything it takes to be a star, i mean if he was more accurate this year we're talking about a 55-60 goal season potentially as a second year player, the hype is huge because his talent is huge, there is no doubt second year blues has got him a little, but he certainly doesn't deserve the critics he gets on here. 

[Skuit 9,310]

13 minutes ago, Abe said:

It's certainly an indication that he has everything it takes to be a star, i mean if he was more accurate this year we're talking about a 55-60 goal season potentially as a second year player, the hype is huge because his talent is huge, there is no doubt second year blues has got him a little, but he certainly doesn't deserve the critics he gets on here. 

I agree he doesn't deserve the criticism. And I don't want to press the issue too much, but I'm not sure if he can achieve what's suggested/hoped for by simply comparing him to other players at the same age and what he's achieved so far. My concerns are he doesn't have the leg (and likely never will) to match with any of Buddy, Carey, Rocca etc etc., doesn't have the pack-marking ability of (many other young bright forward hopes let alone out and out past champions) and doesn't have the physical agility of an early Schwartz or Reiwoldt etc. 60 goals a year would be fantastic in the modern era but I'm not sure that he has the tools to be a 'once in a generation player' many are expecting as a result of natural improvement with age/experience. 

[daisycutter 28,637]

2 hours ago, Mach5 said:

Anyone else notice that the All-Australians wear similar blazers, but it isn't criticised..?

you got a good point there, but maybe that's because nobody ever sees it worn. it is a bit 'orrible though. would suit the ferals down at @unt road 

[P-man 13,239]

3 hours ago, Mach5 said:

Anyone else notice that the All-Australians wear similar blazers, but it isn't criticised..?

May as well. They stole "Hell's Bells" and no-one blinked an eyelid. They play it before the bounce at a lot of non-MFC games these days. That being a unique part of our pre-match ritual lasted about one season.

Would they have ripped off Collingwood's pre-match song of choice? Highly unlikely.

[Binmans PA 26,296]

5 hours ago, Skuit said:

I'm going to attempt some rare middle-ground here.

I think Hogan is fantastic and would be a very valuable asset for us going forward.

Most of the criticism of the kid is massively unwarranted, but 

Some of the hype probably has to be put in check also.

He has been exceptional as a developing key forward in terms of comparison to previous out-and-out AFL forward champions.

My concern is his ceiling. Is he getting close to it already? He was big-bodied at a young age in a shite team so, even while  taking multiple defenders early in his career, his comparative stats may not be valid. He will have to keep taking multiples unless we can add to Watts/Weid etc.

The issues I see are: he's not as physically fluid as some of the greats, and he doesn't have the kicking range. Both big issues for me and have to be acknowledged. He is decent one-on-one but that concept is practically outdated and he struggles for pack-marks when out of position.

He's proven however he can be pretty handy and creative on the ground.

But sadly, I don't think he'll ever be a Buddy or Carey or even an Ox. Maybe closer to Neitz?

So the question comes down to his contract v trade value. I hope he stays. But I think we might do okay with the compensation and without him.

Yes, I'm priming myself for his heartbreaking departure.

 

Yeah, disagree at this point.

[Pates 9,537]

5 hours ago, Skuit said:

I'm going to attempt some rare middle-ground here.

I think Hogan is fantastic and would be a very valuable asset for us going forward.

Most of the criticism of the kid is massively unwarranted, but 

Some of the hype probably has to be put in check also.

He has been exceptional as a developing key forward in terms of comparison to previous out-and-out AFL forward champions.

My concern is his ceiling. Is he getting close to it already? He was big-bodied at a young age in a shite team so, even while  taking multiple defenders early in his career, his comparative stats may not be valid. He will have to keep taking multiples unless we can add to Watts/Weid etc.

The issues I see are: he's not as physically fluid as some of the greats, and he doesn't have the kicking range. Both big issues for me and have to be acknowledged. He is decent one-on-one but that concept is practically outdated and he struggles for pack-marks when out of position.

He's proven however he can be pretty handy and creative on the ground.

But sadly, I don't think he'll ever be a Buddy or Carey or even an Ox. Maybe closer to Neitz?

So the question comes down to his contract v trade value. I hope he stays. But I think we might do okay with the compensation and without him.

Yes, I'm priming myself for his heartbreaking departure.

The hype behind Jesse has been enormous. Taken in the mini-draft, playing extremely well against bigger opponents in the VFL, then having that year off where there was speculation about his back but coming into his first season out on the park and winning the Rising Star award. With all those variables you can understand why there is so much hype behind him.

Despite a lesser output this year he still did amazingly well for his age, something we all need to consider whenever criticising him. Coming into his second playing year teams were always going to target him more and find ways of preventing him getting it all his way. Rather than us looking at this year as not being as good we should look at it as a development year, where he's now realised some of his old methods aren't going to cut it anymore.

He has more strength than he's using, he appears to go to ground easier than he did in him first year where he appeared to try to stand up to that more. No doubt Goodwin and co will be looking at ways to develop him further next year, he looks his best when he's running hard for leads and out-muscling blokes to get the jump on them. 

As to whether he's staying or going, if Sculldog has taught us anything it's that we can't control it if does happen. The club needs to make Jesse want to be at the club, not try to force him to stay by paying ridiculous over the top amounts for him. And Jesse's also got to remember than any crazy amount he asks for is going to make it harder for the club (whichever it is) to recruit/retain good players to win the premiership.

[Skuit 9,310]

What I do agree with - despite my concerns for what I believe Jesse's natural limitations, I think he'll get the absolute best out of he does have. Most likely as a CHF, starting deep and leading out on occasion and drifting back into space at other times. There is also a possibility that his kicking length is still being hampered by his back and may improve. He strikes me at times as moving like a hobbled veteran, but he's also strangely still athletic.

[jackaub 1,402]

9 hours ago, Pates said:

The hype behind Jesse has been enormous. Taken in the mini-draft, playing extremely well against bigger opponents in the VFL, then having that year off where there was speculation about his back but coming into his first season out on the park and winning the Rising Star award. With all those variables you can understand why there is so much hype behind him.

Despite a lesser output this year he still did amazingly well for his age, something we all need to consider whenever criticising him. Coming into his second playing year teams were always going to target him more and find ways of preventing him getting it all his way. Rather than us looking at this year as not being as good we should look at it as a development year, where he's now realised some of his old methods aren't going to cut it anymore.

He has more strength than he's using, he appears to go to ground easier than he did in him first year where he appeared to try to stand up to that more. No doubt Goodwin and co will be looking at ways to develop him further next year, he looks his best when he's running hard for leads and out-muscling blokes to get the jump on them. 

As to whether he's staying or going, if Sculldog has taught us anything it's that we can't control it if does happen. The club needs to make Jesse want to be at the club, not try to force him to stay by paying ridiculous over the top amounts for him. And Jesse's also got to remember than any crazy amount he asks for is going to make it harder for the club (whichever it is) to recruit/retain good players to win the premiership.

Perhaps that indicates to me that he hasn't the tool kit necessary at this level.

Surely a smart developing footballer wouldn't continue using methods developed at schoolboy level football that worked because of his physical prowess. He would take advice work on his smarts and progress. JH used the same methods all year without change and was pretty well frustrated and beaten on many occasions when it didn't work for him

I hope we haven't already seen his best  but I agree with others on here he needs some serious work and advice on how to play his role

[CP5 166]

14 hours ago, stevethemanjordan said:

Strongly agree.

Cops way too much criticism and in my view it's because people genuinely overrate him.

That's how I see it anyway.

 

He's gone from being 'potentially' overrated to now underrated.

Ask Barry Hall or Cam Mooney how long it takes to learn the fundamentals and nuances of key forward play.  They admitted it was 6 years before they felt like they were close to mastering their craft.  They've marveled at how quickly Hogan was able to out-bustle his opponents, push off them, double back and time his leads.

A poster above says "sadly" he probably won't be a Buddy or Carey.  Strike me dead.  He (sadly) may not be equal to arguably the best player of all time and another who may finish top 10 ?  They even question whether a 21 year old, 40 game, power forward has reached their "ceiling".  Hogan will be twice the player he is now when he's played 100 games.

One of the reasons Hawthorn won't win the flag this year is that without Roughead they have no key forward to occupy multiple defenders.  They have no-one to take a pack mark.  They have no-one to ensure opposition defenders don't mark a finals type bail out kick or to ensure it at least comes to ground.

Hogan has had little support throughout his 40 games.  Watts was great in 2016, but he doesn't provide the type of support that Darling gives Kennedy.  For a young key forward, who has taken the opposition's best defender in every single one of his 41 games, to be talked down like he is is staggering to me.  

I question whether they genuinely understand the benefits he brings to a team, any team.  Outside of scouting Gawn and our work around the stoppages the most effort by opposition analysts goes into Hogan.

[John Crow Batty 8,280]

27 minutes ago, jackaub said:

Perhaps that indicates to me that he hasn't the tool kit necessary at this level.

Surely a smart developing footballer wouldn't continue using methods developed at schoolboy level football that worked because of his physical prowess. He would take advice work on his smarts and progress. JH used the same methods all year without change and was pretty well frustrated and beaten on many occasions when it didn't work for him

I hope we haven't already seen his best  but I agree with others on here he needs some serious work and advice on how to play his role

My opinion of him was heavily influenced by the OX  incident. I thought it bad form that he needed to have a press conference for that. And his goal kicking has gotten worse. Been acting like an arrogant superstar prematurely. 

[stuie 7,374]

1 minute ago, america de cali said:

My opinion of him was heavily influenced by the OX  incident. I thought it bad form that he needed to have a press conference for that. And his goal kicking has gotten worse. Been acting like an arrogant superstar prematurely. 

I'm fairly certain he didn't have a "press conference". The players take it in turns to face the media and it was about Jesse's turn. They generally have the media rock up to one training session a week and interview a player afterwards. The duty of that rotates through the players.

 

[stevethemanjordan 6,952]

3 hours ago, CP5 said:

 

I don't disagree with any of what you've posted.

But it's clear to me that the amount of criticism he receives from certain supporters means that they 'overrate' him. Whichever way you look at it.

They think he should be doing things that he isn't at this stage of his development.

Ps. Are you BenHur/ProDee/YzeMagic/RangeRover disguised under yet another avatar?

Edited September 8, 2016 by stevethemanjordan