MATCH PREVIEW & TEAM SELECTION - Round 3, 2016

[Demonland 66,836]

DIRTY HANDS by The Oracle

Melbourne ends its week of humiliation on Sunday with a trip across Bass Strait for a game against a team it has not beaten since Methuselah played in the Under 9s.

To make things worse, North Melbourne is riding high after two solid wins, carrying few injuries and playing at its home away from home. The Kangaroos are chock full of confidence but on top of that are unlikely to treat an opposition with the same disrespect that the Demons showed Essendon in their encounter last Saturday (and for that matter, when they met last year).

Melbourne was caught napping against Essendon when its expected midfield dominance failed to eventuate despite the fact that big Max Gawn dominated the ruck duels. Despite this, the Bombers won the ball out of the clearances and were also given far too much latitude on the outside by an undisciplined unit. I can only suppose that the Demons believed their own publicity after earning kudos from a virtually unblemished pre season and a come from behind win in the season opener against the Giants - achieved through some discipline on the ground including a willingness by all and sundry to go down and get their hands dirty.

Coach Paul Roos has a lot of thinking to do with regard to how he can get his charges back into the headspace they occupied up until the Bomber debacle. It won't be easy if you consider the game starts at the first bounce and the opposition midfield will be a much tougher proposition than the one that beat it comprehensively last week.

And that is where the challenge begins and it does so on the shoulders of the tallest man in the team. When the teams met last year Todd Goldstein gave big Max Gawn a football less amassing 50 hit outs and nearly doubling him in the possession count. The differential was enormous and it reflected in the overall dominance of the Kangaroo midfield. If Gawn has pretensions to becoming a top of the range exponent of the art of ruck work then he needs to take some big scalps and none could be bigger than the man he faces this week.

In order for the team to have a chance of winning, the midfield will have to take the ball away more often from the stoppages and when they do, they must hit targets.

The task is not beyond them but much will depend on whether the team is shell shocked, whether it has the desire to turn things around and to get its hands dirty.

For this assignment, North in Hobart will be a tough proposition and I'm therefore tipping them to win by 25 points.

THE GAME: North Melbourne v Melbourne on Sunday 10 August, 2016 at Blundstone Arena at 1.10pm

HEAD TO HEAD:

Overall North Melbourne 78 wins Melbourne 83 wins 1 draw

At Blundstone Arena North Melbourne 0 wins Melbourne 0 wins

Last five times North Melbourne 5 wins Melbourne 0 wins

The Coaches Scott 3 wins Roos 0 wins

MEDIA

TV - Fox Footy 1pm

RADIO - SEN, ABC

THE BETTING 

North Melbourne to win $1.30 Melbourne to win $3.50

THE LAST TIME THEY MET

North Melbourne 19.13.127 defeated Melbourne 14.8.92 at the MCG in Round 2015.

North led by seven goals to two at the first break in a game that threatened to be a complete blowout but the Demons made a spirited comeback and by close to three quarter time threatened to snatch the lead. The Kangaroos steadied with a late goal to take a 10-point lead into the final break and ran out comfortable winners in the end.

THE TEAMS

North Melbourne
Backs: M.Firrito R.Tarrant S.Wright
Half Backs: S.Atley S.Thompson L.McDonald
Centreline: N.Dal Santo D.Wells B.Jacobs
Half Forwards: J.Ziebell J.Waite B.Harvey
Forwards: S.Higgins D.Petrie L.Thomas
Followers: T.Goldstein B.Cunnington A.Swallow
Interchange From: L.Hansen T.Dumont A.Mullett T.Garner J.Macmillan S.Gibson B.Brown

In: S.Thompson, A.Mullett, T.Dumont

Melbourne
Backs: N.Jetta, T.McDonald, T.Bugg
Half Backs: M.Jones, H.Lumumba, C.Salem
Centreline: B.Vince, D.Tyson, J.Harmes
Half Forwards: J.Watts, A.Vandenberg, B.Kennedy
Forwards: D.Kent, J.Hogan, J.Garlett
Followers: M.Gawn, N.Jones, J.Viney
Interchange From: C.Oliver, L.Dunn, B.Stretch, S.Frost, C.Pedersen, J.Grimes, J.Wagner

In: L.Dunn, B.Stretch, S.Frost, J.Grimes, J.Wagner
Out: C.Garland, A.Brayshaw

[hemingway 7,608]

Not to be a pessimist but looking at these line-ups it's hard not have a death wish (for before the game).  We look so undermanned compared to North it's depressing   . It's hard to see how we will defend let alone get on the scoreboard. I think I might begin soul searching long before the game finishes.

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

Simply cannot see us winning this one.

 

[martin 727]

No chance whatsoever.

[Winners at last 4,933]

I put $200 on Norf when Sportsbet were offering juicy odds of $1.20. They've shortened to $1.16, and I think they'll shorten further the start of the match.

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,534]

In the now closed Changes v North thread some posters have said that because a player is named in the starting 18, they will definitely be playing. Conversely, the three players who will miss out from the current 25 will all come from those named on the bench. Is that actually a rule? And is it factually correct that the final three omitted always come from those named on the bench?

[Chris 2,892]

Some stats on the teams for this game. All stats from full list of 25 named.

	MFC	NMFC		Diff
Average Age	23.9	27.0		-3.1
Average Games	70.0	142.1		-72.1
Back Line
Ave Age	24.8	26.0		-1.2
Ave Games	87.0	123.2		-36.2
Fol (includes wing)
Ave Age	24.2	27.7		-3.5
Ave Games	88.5	177.2		-88.7
Fwd
Ave Age	23.3	30.7		-7.3
Ave Games	57.8	228.7		-170.8
Int
Ave Age	23.3	24.1		-0.9
Ave Games	50.1	54.1		-4.0
Melbourne
Games	Backline	Fol	Fwd	Int	total
0-50	1	2	4	4	11
51-100	4	2	0	2	8
101-150	0	0	2	0	2
151-200	0	1	0	1	2
200+	1	1	0	0	2
					25
NMFC
Games	Backline	Fol	Fwd	Int	total
0-50	1	0	0	3	4
51-100	1	1	0	3	5
101-150	2	1	1	1	5
151-200	1	2	2	0	5
200+	1	2	3	0	6
					25

 

As is clearly evident, they are vastly more experienced and a fair bit older than our team. Their average games played is more than twice ours, even removing Harvey it is still a big gap. The only positive from looking at this is that unless they snag a flag in the next couple of years I get the feeling their is a big rebuild coming for the Roos before they can get close again. 

 

[poita 3,734]

Not sure why the selection thread has been closed, so I'll make my comments here. These are the most underwhelming changes / selections I have seen for a long time.

I cannot believe that after Roos admitted he got selection wrong last week, he has backed up again with largely the same group. None of Kent, Lumumba, Harmes, Bugg, and Vandenberg offered a yelp last week, and yet all get another chance. Brayshaw was clearly underdone, but he and Garland are a long way from being at fault for last week's debacle.

We have to play all of Frost, Dunn and Pedersen to cover North's tall forwards, and to give Gawn a rest. That leaves just one running type to come in (or maybe Oliver to stay), which is unbelievable given that our so-called runners let us down so badly last week.

I'm sick of selection issues costing us, but they will again this week. If the weather is good in Hobart, we will be lucky to get within 12 goals.

[Reality Bus 17]

I am almost certain that we are not training on Bellerive either today or tomorrow.

How can the club go to a ground that they have never played on before, and the first time that they step foot on the grass is the pre-game warmup?

[Chris 2,892]

1 minute ago, deefiance said:

I am almost certain that we are not training on Bellerive either today or tomorrow.

How can the club go to a ground that they have never played on before, and the first time that they step foot on the grass is the pre-game warmup?

They did report on one of the articles on the website that they will have a run on the ground on Saturday. 

[Redleg 38,427]

Most teams have several injuries, except North, which seems to be at full strength. Oh well.

[Winners at last 4,933]

3 hours ago, bingers said:

I put $200 on Norf when Sportsbet were offering juicy odds of $1.20. They've shortened to $1.16, and I think they'll shorten further the start of the match.

Went to $1.15, now $1.14.

 

[P-man 13,309]

It's a horrible fixture to come after such a bad loss. On paper it's a belting, which usually results in a belting. Demonland could explode this weekend.

Hopefully the boys can rally and play like their life depends on it. That's what will be required to even get close.

[P-man 13,309]

My positive prediction is Salem to put in a strong 20+ possession game.

[Devil is in the Detail 883]

I do like the idea of Watts and Vandeberg as 2 tall, running, marking half forwards.

[Ted Lasso 17,302]

I really think Jesse Hogan will respond very strongly this weekend, we may not win, but i think he'll remind everyone how good he is.

[John Crow Batty 8,352]

13 minutes ago, Peter Griffen said:

I really think Jesse Hogan will respond very strongly this weekend, we may not win, but i think he'll remind everyone how good he is.

Yep, remind us not himself.

[DeeSpencer 23,635]

Garlett's a big lost but it means Vanders, Kent, Kennedy and Harmes can all play closer to goal. They all have the talent to kick goals and put on forward pressure. Let's hope we see it. Frost should help the forward line speed as well. 

Clarry gets another chance. Vince back in to the midfield mix I think. Viney, Tyson, Jones. We have options there. Bugg can tag Wells or Harvey. Huge game for Gawny.

Billy Stretch to give us some of the gut running we need. Matt Jones to hopefully continue what we can probably call reasonable form by now.

Dunn to command the backline and hopefully Tom McDonald can put in a big game. 

 

[bing181 8,355]

Garlett out. Explains in part why Kent kept his place.

[Seraph 1,728]

So much for Misson saying Garlett would play 2 days ago. 

[dazzledavey36 49,736]

God help us if Frost plays up forward.

[DemonOX 8,559]

Just now, dazzledavey36 said:

God help us if Frost plays up forward.

No dd God help us full stop. 

[chook fowler 18,555]

7 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

God help us if Frost plays up forward.

God gave up on us years ago. He is a Hawks supporter.

[picket fence 15,735]

1 hour ago, Seraph said:

So much for Misson saying Garlett would play 2 days ago. 

And this is exactly the bullsheet that this club continues to put out!

This is partially why I dedicated another thread ( You cannot be serious) which the mods merged with the changes vs Nth which has now been locked!

Ok lets start

1 Misson said Garlett was Ok . In fact he is extremely doubtful! Don't say anything like he's right when clearly large doubts remain! This is bad PR

2 Wagner gets a game on no form at Casey

3 ANB plays well in consecutive weeks and is overlooked!

4 Players such as Tom Mc Donald continue to make the same errors which can comprimise a game and still keeps his place

5 Lamumba runs in more concetric circles than Gary " Crazy Horse" Cowton and is lacking affectiveness because of it

6 We Drop Frost for 1 then reinstate him next week!

7 Dunn should have played last week and the coaching panel admit error

8 The coach said we were tired last week< tired??? It is week 2

9 I wonder if the coaches are already feeling the heat in view of the shock loss and have gone into "Bikini" mode I.E cover yer ass!

10 The fact we had a shock loss last week shouldn't be a shock at all because we have players who think a win is worth breaking out the popcorn and cactus coolers thinking we have just won a Premiership!

11 I stiil say Weeds and Petracca need to play in the next week or two! a story worth repeating is  Noel Mc Mahon ringing Al Flower requesting that Rob be allowed to play in the senior team at age 17. Alan Flower at first refussed citing that in his view Rob was too skinny and slight and that he was worried about him getting knocked around. Noel Mc Mahons philosophy was try him and see how he goes and if not ready put him back till he matures and no harm done. It is now legend that Rob Flower went on and played evry available game and neever got dropped to the 2s. Are we becoming too precious with our players??

I think the coaching Fraternity are already in somewhat of dishevelment. I hope that we can give a good account of ourselves this Sunday, but given how poor we were last week and given similar personel I cannot see it.

We are all too easily pleased! Time to break out of the maelstrom and get into hard line breaking footy at all costs!

End of RANT!

Edited April 8, 2016 by picket fence

[CHF 2,631]

Up on the club website

Melbourne team: round three
B: Neville Jetta, Tom McDonald, Tomas Bugg
HB: Matt Jones, Heritier Lumumba, Christian Salem
C: Bernie Vince, Dom Tyson, Clayton Oliver
HF: Jack Watts, Aaron vandenBerg, James Harmes
F: Dean Kent, Jesse Hogan, Ben Kennedy
Foll: Max Gawn, Nathan Jones, Jack Viney
I/C (from): Lynden Dunn, Billy Stretch, Sam Frost, Josh Wagner
Emg: Cameron Pedersen, Alex Neal-Bullen, Jack Grimes
In: Lynden Dunn, Sam Frost, Josh Wagner, Billy Stretch
Out: Jeff Garlett (ankle), Colin Garland, Angus Brayshaw, Cameron Pedersen

Dunn and Wagner to cover the back line and frost to cover forward and Ruck The rest to run their collective nuts off and tackle everything in sight with a ball.