2016 AFL National Draft prospects: The next batch

[Red and Blue realist 2,058]

7 minutes ago, Lord Travis said:

Is there going to be anyone decent left at pick 57 when we enter the draft? Only late pick I've heard touted was Darcy Cameron but I doubt he will last that long. 

Can imagine we'll be after role players, rather than 'best available'. At a guess we might see some younger state (VFL, WAFL etc.) players rather than first time draftees.  

[spirit of norm smith 16,588]

47, 69, 84... not high strike rate so Dees would be happy to take a punt on all.

Darcy Cameron will be gone by pick 40.

Here is a group of 45+ draft possibles:

Ruckmen... Jeremy Goddard (WA) 

Key backs... Sam McLarty (Chargers), Jack Maibaum (Ranges), Declan Kielty (Casey)

Running backs ... Bailey Morrish (Stingrays), Louis Cunningham (Chargers)

Mids... Hamish Brayshaw (Dragons) Jack Henry (Falcons)

Utilities... Brodie Romensky (Jets) 

Small fwds... Liam Ryan (WA) Dan Allsop (Stingrays)

Midsize fwds... Lachlan Tiziani (Bushrangers) Patrick Lipinski (Knights) Josh Scott (SA)

Tall fwds... Karl Brown (Knights)

 

Edited October 20, 2016 by spirit of norm smith
allsop

[What 18,810]

Two things I want - 

- A backup ruck who can play forward

- An indigenous X factor player in the mould of a Jurrah/Woenamirri

[ChaserJ 5,157]

Rowan Marshall another ruck possibility who might be around late.

[spirit of norm smith 16,588]

Small indigenous player is Dan Allsop from Stingrays. Lightning quick.

[Redleg 41,432]

Blues want Ainsworth.

[Fat Tony 5,262]

According to Graeme Wright on SEN this morning, the Carlton pick #48 will come in to around #42 after the academy players exhaust all the northern club's picks (which in part explains Carlton's dodgy trade with Hawthorn). Assuming this is true, we should be able to nab around the 41st chosen player with our first pick.

[Lord Travis 10,763]

Let's hope for a ruck man or a quick midfielder. We are nearly set for most other parts of the list. Been a long time since our list looked so healthy and rounded!

[Demi Dee 578]

 

47, 69, 84... not high strike rate so Dees would be happy to take a punt on all.

Darcy Cameron will be gone by pick 40.

Here is a group of 45+ draft possibles:

Ruckmen... Jeremy Goddard (WA) 

Key backs... Sam McLarty (Chargers), Jack Maibaum (Ranges), Declan Kielty (Casey)

Running backs ... Bailey Morrish (Stingrays), Louis Cunningham (Chargers)

Mids... Hamish Brayshaw (Dragons) Jack Henry (Falcons)

Utilities... Brodie Romensky (Jets) 

Small fwds... Liam Ryan (WA) Dan Allsop (Stingrays)

Midsize fwds... Lachlan Tiziani (Bushrangers) Patrick Lipinski (Knights) Josh Scott (SA)

Tall fwds... Karl Brown (Knights)

 

Does the removal of the academy and father/son picks bring the value of our picks up a little?

I heard Graham Wright mention Carlton were happy to trade their 2nd round pick to the Hawks for a series of lesser picks, because, say for example, pick 48 becomes pick 41 (after academy pick are removed). I'm sure guaranteeing  Essendon didn't get O'Meara may have sweetened he deal. 

[spirit of norm smith 16,588]

Jeremy Goddard is the big young ruckman from WA. Likely to be available at 40-50 range.

For pace, Bailey Morrish from Stingrays is our best bet at 45-50 range. Plays half back but is suited to a wing once he develops. 

[Pennant St Dee 13,305]

 

Blues want Ainsworth.

I was very impressed with Ainsworth as an underage player at the 2015 championships

Edited October 21, 2016 by Pennant St Dee

[Demon Disciple 12,274]

 

I was very impressed with Ainsworth as an underage player at the 3015 championships

This Ainsworth bloke puts Boomer's longevity to shame!

[Whispering_Jack 30,664]

Chris 25's Phantom Draft - Post Trade Week Edition Phantom Draft first and second rounds are out now. It helps give an appreciation of how the bidding system works. I suspect that by the end of the second round the Giants are already in points deficit and might be reluctant to match many more bids on their academy players. Collingwood might be in a bit of a bind with points deficit too if they take Josh Daicos because they have other needs in the draft than the two f/s picks available.

On the basis of Chris25's PD so far, I think we come in with our first pick at about 48.

2016 Young Talent Time

First Round

1. Essendon - Hugh McCluggage (185cm, 75kg midfielder from North Ballarat Rebels)

2. GWS Giants - Andrew McGrath (179cm, 75kg midfielder/defender from Sandringham Dragons)

3. Brisbane Lions bid on Jack Bowes (GCS Academy*) Bid Matched

3. Gold Coast Suns - Jack Bowes (187cm, 78kg midfielder from Surfers Paradise)

4. Brisbane Lions - Ben Ainsworth (179cm, 74kg midfielder/forward from Gippsland Power)

5. Carlton bid on Will Setterfield (GWS Giants Academy*) Bid Matched

5. GWS Giants - Will Setterfield (190cm, 80kg midfielder from Sandringham Dragons)

6. Carlton - Will Brodie (187cm, 80kg midfielder from Murray Bushrangers)

7. Gold Coast Suns - Tim English (203cm, 86kg ruckman from South Fremantle)

8. Fremantle - Sam Petrevski-Seton (181cm, 76kg midfielder from Claremont)

9. Gold Coast Suns - Tim Taranto (186cm, 82kg forward/midfielder from Sandringham Dragons)

10. Sydney Swans - Griffin Logue (193cm, 92kg defender from Swan Districts)

11. Gold Coast Suns - Jarrod Berry (191cm, 80kg defender/midfielder from North Ballarat)

12. North Melbourne bid on Harry Perryman (GWS Giants Academy*) Bid Matched

12. GWS Giants - Harry Perryman (184cm, 75kg defender/midfielder from Collingullie)

13. North Melbourne - Oliver Florent (183cm, 74kg midfielder/forward from Sandringham Dragons)

14. West Coast - Jack Scrimshaw (193cm, 80kg defender/midfielder from Sandringham Dragons)

15. Adelaide - Sam Powell-Pepper(186cm, 83kg forward/midfielder from East Perth)

16. Port Adelaide - Todd Marshall (197cm, 87kg forward from Murray Bushrangers)

17. Brisbane Lions - Will Hayward (186cm, 76kg forward from North Adelaide)

18. Port Adelaide - Daniel Venables (186cm, 81kg forward/midfielder from Western Jets)

19. Western Bulldogs - Shai Bolton (177cm, 67kg midfielder from South Fremantle)

20. Sydney Swans bid on Jacob Allison (Brisbane Lions Academy*) Bid Matched

20. Brisbane Lions - Jacob Allison (194cm, 79kg midfielder from Aspley)

21. Sydney Swans - Jy Simpkin (181cm, 71kg forward/midfielder from Murray Bushrangers)

Second Round

22. Essendon - Josh Battle (192cm, 90kg forward from Dandenong Stingrays)

23. Brisbane Lions - Alex Witherden (184cm, 78kg defender/midfielder from Geelong Falcons)

24. St Kilda - Alex Villis (182cm, 70kg midfielder from Norwood)

25. Geelong - Patrick Kerr (194cm, 93kg forward from Oakleigh Chargers)

26. Carlton bid on Brad Scheer (GCS Academy*) Bid Matched

26. Gold Coast Suns - Brad Scheer (184cm, 83kg midfielder from Palm Beach Currumbin)

27. Carlton bid on Kobe Mutch (GCS Academy*) Bid unmatched

27. Carlton - Kobe Mutch (184cm, 79kg midfielder from Bendigo Pioneers)

28. Western Bulldogs bid on Callum Brown (Collingwood father/son*) Bid matched.

28. Collingwood - Callum Brown (177cm, 69kg midfielder/forward from Eastern Ranges)

29. Western Bulldogs - Josh Rotham(192cm, 79kg defender/midfielder from West Perth)

30. Richmond - Brennan Cox (194cm, 90kg defender/forward from Woodville West Torrens)

31. Essendon - Dylan Clarke (187cm, 85kg midfielder from Eastern Ranges)

32. Port Adelaide - Jonty Scharenberg (186cm, 80kg midfielder from Glenelg)

33. Port Adelaide - Cedric Cox (184cm, 70kg defender from North Ballarat Rebels)

34. North Melbourne bid on Harrison Macreadie (GWS Giants Academy*) Bid matched

34. GWS Giants - Harrison Macreadie (196cm, 89kg defender from Henty)

35. North Melbourne - Jordan Gallucci (183cm, 75kg midfielder from Eastern Ranges)

36. North Melbourne - Jordan Ridley(192cm, 79kg defender/midfielder from Oakleigh Chargers)

37. West Coast - Zac Fisher (175cm, 61kg midfielder from Perth)

38. Fremantle - Harry Morrison (182cm, 73kg defender from Murray Bushrangers)

39. St Kilda - Tyson Stengle (171cm, 69kg forward from Woodville West Torrens)

40. Geelong bid on Jake Waterman (West Coast father/son*) Bid matched.

40. West Coast - Jake Waterman(191cm, 82kg forward from Claremont)

41. Geelong - Dylan Whimpress (186cm, 70kg defender/midfielder from South Adelaide)

42. Fremantle - Quinton Narkle (181cm, 82kg midfielder/forward from Perth)

[Hulett Packard III 166]

 

47, 69, 84... not high strike rate so Dees would be happy to take a punt on all.

Darcy Cameron will be gone by pick 40.

Here is a group of 45+ draft possibles:

Ruckmen... Jeremy Goddard (WA) 

Key backs... Sam McLarty (Chargers), Jack Maibaum (Ranges), Declan Kielty (Casey)

Running backs ... Bailey Morrish (Stingrays), Louis Cunningham (Chargers)

Mids... Hamish Brayshaw (Dragons) Jack Henry (Falcons)

Utilities... Brodie Romensky (Jets) 

Small fwds... Liam Ryan (WA) Dan Allsop (Stingrays)

Midsize fwds... Lachlan Tiziani (Bushrangers) Patrick Lipinski (Knights) Josh Scott (SA)

Tall fwds... Karl Brown (Knights)

 

Nearly all of those players are still available at the end of Chris25's phantom draft. We could still have a good choice of ruckmen, running backs or mids available in the third. 

Plus the possibility of Jason Taylor plucking out a smokey.

[rjay 25,088]

Maybe it's time to start with the 2017 draft prospects...

[ChaserJ 5,157]

 

Maybe it's time to start with the 2017 draft prospects...

Fair chance that Jayden Stephenson and Sam Hayes are two quality prospects who should go far too high to be in the frame for us in 2017.

[The Oracle 145]

The AFL Bidding System for academy and father son selections is fairly complex and its lucky the recruiters will have the advantage of computers at the draft meeting. I tried to work it out and came up with this - based on the Chris 25 PD posted above by WJ.

Each selection in the AFL National Draft up to Pick 73 has a points value under the AFL Bidding System

In the example, GWS selects Andrew McGrath with its first selection- Pick 2. 

Carlton bids on Will Setterfield with Pick 5 and GWS agree to match this. 

Pick 5 is worth 1,878 points and they get a 20% discount which means the cost to GWS is 1,502 points.

GWS's next pick is Pick 15 which is worth 1,112 points. They then lose 390 points from their next pick.

That pick is Pick 37 which is worth 483 points which means on the above scenario, that pick is now only worth 93 points to GWS.

North Melbourne bids on Harry Perryman with Pick 12 and GWS agree to match this. 

Pick 12 is worth 1,268 points and they get a 20% discount which means the cost to GWS is 1,014 points.

GWS have 93 points left on Pick 37 and will have make up another 921 points requiring them to use Picks 39 (446 points), 45 (347 points) and 52 (246 points) to get Perryman and they will then have 118 points left over.

So when Carlton bids on Kobe Mutch at 27, GWS thinks twice and decides not to match the bid.

Next, we have North Melbourne bidding on Harrison Macreadie  with Pick 34 and GWS agree to match this. 

Pick 34 is worth 542 points and with the 20% discount, Macreadie will cost GWS 433 points so they need to find another 315 points. This means they have to use up another two picks to get Macreadie. Picks 55 (207 points) and 57 (182 points) will leave them with 74 spare points but they now have used up 7 draft picks to get four players. 

This is all based on Chris25's belief that Carlton would go for Setterfield at 5 and that GWS would match the bid. GWS would be in trouble if Essendon picked him with 1 at a cost of 3,000 points discounted to 2,400 but better off if the bid came at say 9 which would cost 1,469 points discounted to 1,175.

The question is how many vacancies do they have and how far can they go?

My guess is that they would be fairly limited and probably wouldn't be competing against too many more bids if they come early enough.

[Skuit 10,031]

Where are GWS at with list spaces? How many players will they be looking to bring in in terms of a mandated reduction in list-size?

 

[Whispering_Jack 30,664]

On 23 October 2016 at 10:38 PM, Skuit said:

Where are GWS at with list spaces? How many players will they be looking to bring in in terms of a mandated reduction in list-size?

The Giants are expected to open up four more draft spaces before the end of the month with their final delistings. It looks as if they are going to bid for McGrath and then go heavily for academy players. It will be very interesting to see how many they finish up with and how far the other clubs press them.

[Whispering_Jack 30,664]

Knightmare's 2016 AFL phantom draft is out on ESPN -

Knightmare's 2016 AFL phantom draft: Who goes where, and when?

http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/17897568/knightmare-first-2016-afl-phantom-draft

He's only doing the first two rounds and is not really predicting where the academy/father-son bidding is going to happen so it's not completely realistic (if anything can possibly be regarded as that). Here are his top 10

1. Essendon - Hugh McCluggage
2. GWS Giants - Andrew McGrath
3. Brisbane Lions - Ben Ainsworth
4. Gold Coast - Jack Scrimshaw
5.  Carlton - Will Brodie
6. Gold Coast - Jack Bowes
7. Fremantle - Tim English
8.  Gold Coast - Sam Petrevski-Seton
9. Sydney - Oliver Florent
10. Gold Coast - Tim Taranto

For Melbourne's pick in the third round KM fancies Willem Drew, a 188cm, 78kg midfielder.

[george_on_the_outer 7,698]

Looking at Chris25's picks above, we can now see why the MFC traded away the 2016 future 1st rounder to get a forward in Weidemann (196cm)

Of those 42 players only 2 are taller, Todd Marshall (197, forward) and Tim English ( 203, ruck), with Harrison McCreadie (196, defender) equal height. 

Really, really smart thinking by the Recruiting team.

[Chelly 827]

On 29/10/2016 at 4:23 PM, Whispering_Jack said:

Knightmare's 2016 AFL phantom draft is out on ESPN -

Knightmare's 2016 AFL phantom draft: Who goes where, and when?

http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/17897568/knightmare-first-2016-afl-phantom-draft

He's only doing the first two rounds and is not really predicting where the academy/father-son bidding is going to happen so it's not completely realistic (if anything can possibly be regarded as that). Here are his top 10

1. Essendon - Hugh McCluggage
2. GWS Giants - Andrew McGrath
3. Brisbane Lions - Ben Ainsworth
4. Gold Coast - Jack Scrimshaw
5.  Carlton - Will Brodie
6. Gold Coast - Jack Bowes
7. Fremantle - Tim English
8.  Gold Coast - Sam Petrevski-Seton
9. Sydney - Oliver Florent
10. Gold Coast - Tim Taranto

For Melbourne's pick in the third round KM fancies Willem Drew, a 188cm, 78kg midfielder.

Drew would be an interesting selection. Goes hard at the ball and has been compared to Jack Viney.

[Dee-licious 1,954]

On 29/10/2016 at 6:05 PM, george_on_the_outer said:

Looking at Chris25's picks above, we can now see why the MFC traded away the 2016 future 1st rounder to get a forward in Weidemann (196cm)

Of those 42 players only 2 are taller, Todd Marshall (197, forward) and Tim English ( 203, ruck), with Harrison McCreadie (196, defender) equal height. 

Really, really smart thinking by the Recruiting team.

Been thinking about this a lot throughout this year. If we were to have had our first round pick, Marshall would have been it but he's not as good as Weiderman. English is a different player all together. 

Really happy with the pick swap and wouldn't be surprised if we do it again next year (eg 2018 first rounder out for another 2017 first). 2017 is already shaping up to be a talls draft. That Lobb type we all crave could come from there. 

[Whispering_Jack 30,664]

The AFL has received the following Academy nominations for next month's AFL National Draft:-

Brisbane Lions – Jacob Allison, Nate Dennis, William Fletcher, Jack Rolls, Declan Watson.

GC Suns - Jack Bowes, Dan Charlesworth, Jesse Esam, Nicholas Kempe, Curtis Marsden, Brad Scheer, Max Spencer, Shawn Watson, Josh Williams.

GWS – Isaac Cumming, Sam Fisher, Ryan Garthwaite, Harrison Macreadie, Kobe Mutch, Harry Perryman, Will Setterfield, Zach Sproule, Lach Tiziani

Sydney Swans – Darcy Baron-Hay, Jake Brown, Ryan Hebron, Callum McFadden, Ned Reinhard, Matthew Wilson.

The AFL has received the following Father/son nominations for next month's AFL National Draft:-

 Adelaide – Ben Jarman 
  
Collingwood – Callum Brown, Josh Daicos

Geelong – Sam Simpson

Jake Waterman – West Coast

 

[Left-Field 71]

On 31/10/2016 at 4:12 PM, Whispering_Jack said:

The AFL has received the following Academy nominations for next month's AFL National Draft:-

Brisbane Lions – Jacob Allison, Nate Dennis, William Fletcher, Jack Rolls, Declan Watson.

GC Suns - Jack Bowes, Dan Charlesworth, Jesse Esam, Nicholas Kempe, Curtis Marsden, Brad Scheer, Max Spencer, Shawn Watson, Josh Williams.

GWS – Isaac Cumming, Sam Fisher, Ryan Garthwaite, Harrison Macreadie, Kobe Mutch, Harry Perryman, Will Setterfield, Zach Sproule, Lach Tiziani

Sydney Swans – Darcy Baron-Hay, Jake Brown, Ryan Hebron, Callum McFadden, Ned Reinhard, Matthew Wilson.

The AFL has received the following Father/son nominations for next month's AFL National Draft:-

 Adelaide – Ben Jarman 
  
Collingwood – Callum Brown, Josh Daicos

Geelong – Sam Simpson

Jake Waterman – West Coast

 

Sydney's batch doesn't strike me as quality. Surprised GWS picked Tiziani and Garthwaite over Lynch and Byrne. GCS got a nice batch, Bowes is a guaranteed gun.