Rock, Paper, Scissors

[dee-luded 2,958]

I made a similar comment to a mate in Saturday. How can we possibly be beaten by such an ordinary side playing ordinary football?? Unbelievable.

Goody's coaching, ka-ching ?

[Little Goffy 12,770]

All of our wins this season have come with commentators falling off their chair saying things like "Melbourne out-worked and out-muscled their opponent! Yes, you heard right, Melbourne." (direct quote, from the win over Richmond)

An awful lot hinges on that one big aggregate variable for us. When it is up, we are a chance. When not, we're gone.

'Twas ever thus.

[Webber 10,181]

Last years team could never have beaten Geelong (it didn't) let alone in Mordor.

We have had a harder draw to this point than last year and disappointing performances to Essendon and Port Adelaide should be seen in light of what happens in the last 8 weeks of the season.

If wins are all we care about and illustrate our improvement from last year - one more win will 'prove' 25% improvement. 2 will mean 50%. 4 will mean 100% improvement.

Jeez, what a success hey?

PS. the stats show that we have improved our clearance rate differential by ~50%, made little ground on Inside 50s, lost ground on Uncontested Possessions (although this is entirely due to the top 4 teams beating us up), pulled down our average margin by ~20%, and have won more contested possessions than our opponents for the first time since Daniher was in charge.

So, yeah, nah, the stats are a mixed bag where improvement can be seen.

This year's Geelong is last year's Adelaide. Geelong have been very ordinary this year, particularly at home. They are equivalent wins. I think it's wishful thinking to get too reductive about the stats, so wins and percentage is about where it's at. Also, our fixture up to now is very similar to last year in respect to relative strength of opponents. I hear the talk of improvement, but it's just wishful thinking so far.

[sue 8,477]

This year's Geelong is last year's Adelaide. Geelong have been very ordinary this year, particularly at home. They are equivalent wins. I think it's wishful thinking to get too reductive about the stats, so wins and percentage is about where it's at. Also, our fixture up to now is very similar to last year in respect to relative strength of opponents. I hear the talk of improvement, but it's just wishful thinking so far.

I can't see how you can equate a win at Geelong with beating Adelaide. Hardly anyone has beaten Geelong at Geelong for yonks. Sure, Geelong are not what they were but if you are determined to see gloom I guess this is one fact you have to counter somehow.

[Jesse Christ 2,884]

Watch out for 25% improvement on last season this week then...

I've already seen last weeks soul destroying loss against the druggies and I didn't need a degree in statistics to analyse that..

[nutbean 8,837]

What the past two posters have conveniently forgotten is that our mood(s) were considerably different two weeks ago when we pulled off what was thrown around as the 'win of the decade' at the Cattery. We sucked this week, and it hurt - but what it says about our long term future is not in any way conclusive.

I think you have hit the nail on the head with 5 words - "not in any way conclusive".

Sometimes under Roos we have been very good.

Many times we have been competitive.

Many times we have been just plain putrid.

If you asked me to describe our team - I will borrow from you - we are inconclusive

[dee-eee 231]

Which is it...you either wish to curry your narrative with the nonsense of roundabout winability, which you rightly discard or reintroduce it if suits.

The correct analysis is we have won few games despite nearly winning more but finding a way to lose.

There is nothing of that stance to defend as such for its simply the truth.

We are currently as bad as the ladder describes.

The scoreboard is the one stat that cant lie nor can it really distort for it is what it is....the barometer of the particular contest.

You either win or you lose. We do more of the latter.

As is quipped; the more things change, the more they stay the same.

Must have been authored by a Melbourne supporter!

Can't the scoreboard fib just a tad when Messrs Cloke and Daniher slot 7-0 & 5-0 respectively ?

[Bitter but optimistic 21,556]

Whichever way i keep looking at it, the loss to Ess was awful. I paint it a different colour and it still looks shite. I dress it in different clothing and it remains weak. Try and treat it in an alternate context, yet we have not improved in years. Rock, paper, scissors? I see not much else but bitter defeat. Where's that kitchen knife.......

Pm me an address Moonie and I'll express post the knife.

[rjay 24,042]

The league is the most even it's probably ever been.

I'm not so sure it is really. I think there is a bit of smoke and mirrors with the draw and a couple of teams like Geelong and Port dropping off but at the end of the day when one of the top 4 put their foot down they win pretty easily.

The top teams are streets ahead, hardly an even comp...

[Webber 10,181]

I can't see how you can equate a win at Geelong with beating Adelaide. Hardly anyone has beaten Geelong at Geelong for yonks. Sure, Geelong are not what they were but if you are determined to see gloom I guess this is one fact you have to counter somehow.

Look at Geelong's record at home this year. It's rubbish. By their own admission it's far from the fortress it was. It's an entirely apt comparison, and my gloom is entirely supported by facts. The alternative view is just hope at this stage. A LOT is riding on the next two games.

[Fork 'em 6,570]

Sometimes under Roos we have been very good.

Many times we have been competitive.

Many times we have been just plain putrid.

I'd say 1 game against Geelong we were very good.

In all others we've been a mixture of competitive and putrid , even the rare games we won.

[Ethan Tremblay 28,535]

I'd say 1 game against Geelong we were very good.

In all others we've been a mixture of competitive and putrid , even the rare games we won.

V GWS is a perfect example of being competitive then putrid.

[dee-luded 2,958]

This year's Geelong is last year's Adelaide. Geelong have been very ordinary this year, particularly at home. They are equivalent wins. I think it's wishful thinking to get too reductive about the stats, so wins and percentage is about where it's at. Also, our fixture up to now is very similar to last year in respect to relative strength of opponents. I hear the talk of improvement, but it's just wishful thinking so far.

they are on the slide.

..... and recruiting mature players when they're stars are Ending, is too late to maintain the strength of their culture. They should have brought in one mature player, if not every year, then at least every second year; when they were strong.

now they're aren't enough strong heads at Geelong at the top of their games, still playing, to stop any erosion of culture.

bringing in too many players from other clubs, at a time like now, can erode the values that made they're culture so healthy.

[dee-luded 2,958]

Look at Geelong's record at home this year. It's rubbish. By their own admission it's far from the fortress it was. It's an entirely apt comparison, and my gloom is entirely supported by facts. The alternative view is just hope at this stage. A LOT is riding on the next two games.

its like the twins, country cousins, are on opposite ends of the see-saw.

They are going down, & we are coming up, under their downward momentum. we are learning & they are unlearning, if you catch my drift.

[Fork 'em 6,570]

V GWS is a perfect example of being competitive then putrid.

That was a game of two halves.

Competitive for the first , putrid for the second.

I find we usually mix it all up together and it often amazes me that we are competitive at all considering how putrid we play.

Which also makes me think as unattractive as the game plan is.

Its obviously difficult to score against even with players determination to fork things up.

[Webber 10,181]

its like the twins, country cousins, are on opposite ends of the see-saw.

They are going down, & we are coming up, under their downward momentum. we are learning & they are unlearning, if you catch my drift.

I catch your drift, and if it comes to pass I won't complain. Very little sympathy for the Cats, they have a very sweet existence in the AFL, the likes of which the Dees, Dogs, Saints and Roos can only dream of.

[Binmans PA 26,479]

186 was the wheels falling off. Neeld was the car crusher. Roos signed on in 2013 and Jackson presented him with his team:

Being a slightly over the top Bond fan, that image is from Goldfinger.

[Binmans PA 26,479]

The point is that we were doing the same thing last year. At this stage, when we thought we would be better than last year, we aren't. You know, year on year progress. Yes of course we are better than Neeld era, but I've not seen progress from LAST year. A few more wins before season end will change my mind, but at this stage it is not there. As much as people might hate them, the stats prove this definitively. The next 8 games will define the next few years I think.

Completely disagree. 2016 is far more likely to be the defining season for the next few years. Or even 2017.

[Moonshadow 16,407]

Pm me an address Moonie and I'll express post the knife.

Tony Abbott

c/- Parliament House

Canberra ACT

Australia

That should get you deported on your UK/AU passport......

[dee-luded 2,958]

Tony Abbott

c/- Parliament House

Canberra ACT

Australia

That should get you deported on your UK/AU passport......

all deep ends on which cabinet mp receives that gift; it may come in very handy andy, & B bo make end up with a patty on his back, & a slap across his wrist.

[Bombay Airconditioning 5,970]

I'm not so sure it is really. I think there is a bit of smoke and mirrors with the draw and a couple of teams like Geelong and Port dropping off but at the end of the day when one of the top 4 put their foot down they win pretty easily.

The top teams are streets ahead, hardly an even comp...

I don't think there's a top 4. If Hawks do a number on Sydney, I'm aware of their earlier encounter but the Hawks are awake now, Sydney are doing enough.

Hawks

Daylight

Free

Eagles (Still to play Swans/Hawks)

Swans

Daylight

Collingwood (a straight kicking fwd from winning their last 3)

Daylight

The rest.

Richmond at 5. Brisbane Lions would of beaten them last Friday night.

[rjay 24,042]

I don't think there's a top 4. If Hawks do a number on Sydney, I'm aware of their earlier encounter but the Hawks are awake now, Sydney are doing enough.

Hawks

Daylight

Free

Eagles (Still to play Swans/Hawks)

Swans

Daylight

Collingwood (a straight kicking fwd from winning their last 3)

Daylight

The rest.

Richmond at 5. Brisbane Lions would of beaten them last Friday night.

Not so sure either 'Al', although it's the silly season at the moment. We won't know for sure until we hit the biz end of the year.

One thing I do know though is it isn't an even competition, that's a lovely AFL con...

[rpfc 27,634]

That Geelong win was the best footy we have played since Bailey, and to do it at a place we have historically been abysmal at adds to that win.

The poor performance that came three weeks later doesn't diminish that effort. The week before Geelong beat Port Adelaide away. The are not what they were (if they were we would not have won), but they were not same also ran easy beat like some are trying to sell.

Our ability to run and spread is still sub-standard but we are now in the top half for contested footy, and while our ability to get the ball forward and score is still in the shadows of the rest of the league - it has improved from 2014.

If we had beaten Essendon by 3 points and we were 5 and 9 we wouldn't be having this discussion I don't think, but we didn't kick those goals, we didn't win that game, and the argument is bent too far back after the highs of the post-Geelong "hey we can win 8 of our last 9 games! That dog has a fluffy tail!" nonsense.