Talking Point: Improvement - how far can we go in 2015?

[Whispering_Jack 28,096]

When preparing for the retrospective feature on 1975, it struck me that the Melbourne Football Club made enormous strides in that year after a disastrous wooden spoon season in 1974.

That season was former Swan champion Bobby Skilton's first as coach and it saw the Demons record only three wins (out of 22 games) and a percentage of 77.1.

The team improved on that three fold in terms of the number of wins to nine in 1975 and the percentage of 93.6 which was not far off that of Collingwood (93.9) which finished in fifth spot (in those days only five teams played off for the finals). Despite finishing in 10th place after three narrow losses at the end, they were only one game out of the five at the end of round 19 and if they had won the last three, would have made the finals for the first time since 1964 - a big "if" but they did lose by 6 points to Geelong in round 21 and 1 point to Collingwood in round 22. The team also suffered some other narrow defeats during the season and lived to rue a mid season slump which kept it out of contention.

Back in those days, the club had some real quality players like Robbie Flower, Stan Alves, Greg Wells, Gary Hardeman, Laurie Fowler, Carl Ditterich, Ray Biffin, Peter Keenan, Garry Baker and Steven Smith but the depth of players wasn't quite there. There were no big name recruits either so the improvement actually came from the fact that the players adapted much better to Skilton's style of play and there were less injuries after 1974 which had been a tough year for the club on that score.

I had always thought that the following year was one of major improvement. In 1976, the team won 11 games, had a percentage of 99.4 and finished sixth, only half a game behind Footscray which scraped into the finals after a draw against Carlton in the final round which kept Melbourne out of the finals for another eleven years (life was tough then). The big improvement however, really came in 1975.

So much has changed since then - there are more teams, an expanded finals format, the game is played differently with more complex tactics and strategies, there are different rules, more players change clubs in the off-season, recruiting of younger players is done by the draft system, training and preparation are more scientific and intense, there are better venues and ground conditions, interstate travel etc.

Back in 1975, Melbourne started in fine style with two wins. First gamer Marty Lyons (father of Adelaide's Jarryd) booted four goals in the season opener. Obviously, a good start to the season is needed but how far can we go in 2015?

Can anyone see us achieving what we did under the coaching of another former Swan forty years ago - a threefold increase in the number of wins which would get us to the cusp of the finals?

If so - how?

If not - why?

[What 18,810]

There should be no limit to how far we go

That should be the mindset every single season

Anything less than a flag is unacceptable

[Elusive Tunbridge 795]

Disappointing life you must have. Stay away from buses.

[Sir Why You Little 35,085]

There are no more off field excuses

These things have all been dealt with.

It is now up to the players to see how far they want to push themselves...

[Good Times Grimes 2,396]

We CAN win the flag. Will we? Probably not, but HH is right, the players should enter every game believing they are a chance to win.

How much WILL we improve? Depends a lot on injuries. If we can get 20 games out of each of our core group of midfielders (Jones, Tyson, Vince, Viney, Lumumba) + Hogan and Dawes, then I think we'll see 8-10 wins.

[Damo 3,030]

Again as soon as a balanced discussion is offered, drongos chime in with "anything less than" ultimatums that make any criticisms just a fan to flames.

Its no wonder many Demonland members just look on and cant be stuffed offering less than perfect scenarios.

[dpositive 1,596]

We certainly have an improved look with a mix of experience and youth.

We have a solid core of 23-26 year who have exhibited good skills spasmodically.

We appear to have more competition for spots through the squad. This depth provides cover for injury.

We have a coaching team that provides the necessary support and advice for players.

We have a coach with a proven record of success

We have supporters who are hungy for success and have shown all the traits that our players need to inspire them to perform including persistence and resilience.

The players need to perform to their maximum ability and must leave the ground each week having exhausted themselves. The above support team will manage them through to the next encounter selecting the right team to match the following week. Those who perform best constantly will be played constantly, those who need rest and recuperation will have it with adequate replacement.

If the resources are managed we can easily make it to the eight irrespective of how much other clubs have improved.

We are then in the finals and a new season begins.

Again

We have a coach who has been there and knows how to get the best from the team

ANYTHING can happen

GO DEES

[Whispering_Jack 28,096]

The idea that you must aspire for the ultimate and nothing else was fine when the code was essentially amateur and it belongs to that era which is now long gone. These days you need to have realistic expectations and that's why you don't hear the good coaches talking about premierships - certainly not at this stage of the journey. Even Alastair Clarkson would be talking at this point in time about making the top four and then "we'll see what happens from there".

I started this thread not so much to discuss what we should be aiming for but rather, what would be a realistic expectation. I think we all expect improvement. I'm generally an optimist on these things and base my expectations on how far we can go given that a few things go our way - like having a fit and healthy list throughout the season, getting up in the close games, meeting opponents who would normally be beatable at the right time and other factors - call it "the stars aligning". If the players get the Roos game plan as they eventually did back in 1975 with Skilton and can start playing some good consistent football, I don't think that 10 wins and perhaps a couple more would be beyond expectations.

[CBDees 3,162]

Final eight! (I am calling it now!)

[george_on_the_outer 7,071]

There are very good reasons to expect a far, far better on-field performance this year.

1. There are teams which are in dire circumstances.

St.Kilda have lost Hayes, Goddard, Montagna, Milne and Dal Santo from their best side of past years. They gave away McEvoy and have pinned ALL their hopes on the draft. Surely, we have shown that you cannot rely on that re-building process alone.

Footscray have seen 2 of their best players in Cooney and Griffen leave for other pastures. Something wrong at the kennel when the coach gets sacked and they throw over $1m at a kid who has had a total of 30 possessions in his AFL career. Even Scully was better than that. Signs of desperation when the President is doing the drafting...

GWS are now seeing the Scully effect as good players desert the club who can't pay them more. Expect nothing more from them in the coming year.

GC are dependant upon G.Ablett totally. He still has a dodgy shoulder and while back training can't handle the ball with one arm. Not good when great players are sidelined,but without him they simply can't win.

2. There are a couple of clubs in decline ( as there always are). Carlton have finally learnt that players can no longer be purchased, and the Judd experiment is coming to an end, having failed. Without Malthouses guile they would have finished further down the ladder last year. Having lost Waite and Garlett who were 2 of their leading goal kickers in 2014, it is hard to see even Mick keeping them competitive.

Collingwood have lost 2 of their top 4 B&F finishers from last year,in Lumumba and Beams. Swan is either disinterested or injured or both, and Eddies experiment is falling apart.

Richmond bolstered their list with the likes of Rance, Maric, Houli, Jackson and Grigg a couple of years ago. It put them into finals but only while these players were on the field. We saw what happened last year when they didn't. And then the Toiyges didn't trade at all. For a team that fell into the finals, surely trying to add something to the list was essential to getting any further. Their fragility was exposed when we were able to beat them last year, and Port gave them a football lesson in the finals, so expecting no less for 2015.

Freo have taken the big gamble to keep Pavlich, McPharlin and Sandilands on the park for one last tilt. Or it could collapse catastrophically if it doesn't work.

Essendon face a disastrous on-field year if the findings of the Tribunal/ASADA/WADA fall against them.

No-one knows what is going on at Adelaide, looks like Ricciuto is running the club from outside. Sacking the coach or losing players. Not a formula for future success.

So overall, it won't take much for us to improve in 2015. A finals tilt is possible because we have already matched it with a number of last years finalists. There are teams on the way down,and teams staying cemented in the bottom 4. We should have won more games last year especially those we were leading in the final quarter.

Success isn't that far away. Finals are a real possibility.

[McQueen 17,864]

I've sensed a real belief emerging amongst the players that they're as good as any chance to make the eight this year. Comments from interviews, tweets, training reports etc suggest to me that the team is really expecting a quantum leap in improvement.

Maybe they know something we don't?

It's probably a bit fantastical but I do like the concept that last year was all about refining the defensive strategies and maintaining possession of the footy by any means, which sometimes looked clumsy and ultimately resulted in cheap turnover goals to the opposition. There's been a lot of talk about the offensive side of the game plan being introduced in the latter half of last season but as evidenced by the results, the team's success of that was pretty limited but glimpses were definitely shown. I guess the optimist in me hopes that last year was part of a staged offensive strategy, albeit limited by a lack of forward targets and F50 entries in which hampered the desired effect and just made the team look plain bad.

So the key for me is a fit and full squad. There's no secret to this and all senior coaches speak of it as critical in any clubs push for finals football. We hit round 1 with a team of really fit, best 22 players, then I believe we can mix it with any team but still fall well short of the top 4 - 6 clubs when the heat is really on.

Maybe it's a biased view in that I know our list reasonable well, but I consider the core of skilful youngsters on MFC's list to be better than other clubs. But like I said, I'm not as familiar with opposition lists.

If we have a good season on the injury front and the offensive side of the game steps up I reckon we can sneak into the eight.

Edited January 3, 2015 by McQueen

[Macca 16,174]

From where we're coming from 8-9 wins is a realistic aim ... and if a team is good enough to get to 8-9 wins then it is usually good enough to get to 11-12 wins (there's not a great deal of difference between the 2 categories)

I've always felt that a team needs at least 6 very good players (or A grade, A+) to be able to make the finals ... depth needs to be decent as well to make the finals (the last 6 picked in any given week need to be able to play a bit or play a role)

So, there's a "formula" involved whether we want to accept that or not ... some supporters dream big and others prefer to take a far more conservative view but the players and everyone associated with the club needs to believe that we're capable of winning any game.

Winning is often about belief but without enough good players, it's hard to win. We need a number of players to take more than one step up - that's entirely possible. We've seen a countless amount of players take a quantum leap before - we just need to see that happen at our club. Again, there's no reason why that can't happen. There isn't one player on our list who can't improve - some more so than others.

Above all else, Roos needs to breed a good level of confidence within the group - we need to start believing in ourselves. Us supporters can really only hope for the best. I'd also like to see the team play in a far more direct fashion.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

There should be no limit to how far we go

That should be the mindset every single season

Anything less than a flag is unacceptable

what melodramatic, shallow garbage

you are definitively saying that if the MFC rose 15 ladder spots and lost the grand final in 2015 you would be disappointed with the year

do we really need silly comments like this it is a waste of everyone's time

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

People exaggerate how far behind we are - we lost the last 10 and finished 17th but that's not the real story

2013/2014 AFL Average:
50.4 inside-50
13.11.89

MFC 2014:
40.5 inside-50
9.7.61

so that's it: 4 goals and 10 inside 50s and we are an AFL average side

pedants can talk til they're blue in the face but it really doesn't get any simpler than that and the numbers are incapable of lying

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

1997. Wooden Spoon.

1998. Fourth.

Some sides can turn around things quite quickly.

Not sure if this team can engineer such a dramatic turnaround, but I am definitely expecting significant improvement.

I reckon 8-9 wins and a percentage in the 90s.

[Damo 3,030]

GC and GWS are now seeing their crop of players move in their 20's. If we can keep up with GWS we are doing OK.

Gold coast I see as being in the Adelaide(Sloane soon to re-sign) and Carlton (more seasoned) rush for 10/11 games and 8th spot.

I see us in a similar position to WB, we are each pinning our forward hope to untried young gun. They have Crameri and we have Dawes as backup.

We have better flankers both forward and back but its just my view.

They win in the middle with Minson Boyd, Wallis, Libber and Dalhous. If I thought Jamar would play over 15 games it would bolster my hopes. While Jamar is good at ball ups around the ground he is going to be jumped all over in the centre. I reckon Gawn is frail too so I hope Spencer gets a good run as he more aggressive in play then Jamar or Gawn. Does another team have worse ruck stocks?

I see Essendon cracking, I see Richmond leaderless. We should beat St Kilda surely...

7 wins 13th-15th spot.

[The Devil Inside 2,147]

From what I have seen at training, we are still probably a year away, 6 or 7 wins for me, and Frankie, ruck stocks are the least of our worries

[McQueen 17,864]

From what I have seen at training, we are still probably a year away, 6 or 7 wins for me, and Frankie, ruck stocks are the least of our worries

What's the baseline your evaluating this from? Past years training or other clubs?

We all know what assumptions mean when comparing training and game days.

[What 18,810]

what melodramatic, shallow garbage

you are definitively saying that if the MFC rose 15 ladder spots and lost the grand final in 2015 you would be disappointed with the year

do we really need silly comments like this it is a waste of everyone's time

LOL and you call me melodramatic

what a ridiculous reply to a 3 line post that would have taken you 5 seconds to read.

[Bitter but optimistic 21,560]

My most optimistic guess is 7 wins. Not final 8 material but a vast improvement. Seven wins, no floggings and the emergence of some players would provide a springboard for a big 2016.

[Moonshadow 16,439]

My most optimistic guess is 7 wins. Not final 8 material but a vast improvement. Seven wins, no floggings and the emergence of some players would provide a springboard for a big 2016.

Salem, Gawn and Toump would be the three I want to see go to the next level.

[Bitter but optimistic 21,560]

Salem, Gawn and Toump would be the three I want to see go to the next level.

Agreed. While I dont want to add to the expectations on Hogan, if he doesn't show a bit we're in trouble. As mentioned on another thread I like the look of Frost and we need Garlett and Heritier (as experienced imports) to be consistent contributors and leaders.

[Willmoy1947 3,815]

If I see Hogan having to hold Our Forward line up alone because we know that Dawes will be out I will not be overwhelmed by the decision makers.

If anything depending on the weather I want a top heavy though functioning mean fast set up that can readily include Dawes for our second week's win

Then I will start to think about what we could have....

[Trisul 649]

Our first five opponents (their previous two weeks where applicable) and location:

12th Gold Coast - MCG
16th Giants (St Kilda - Away) - Canberra
10th Adelaide (North - Home, Collingwood - Away) - Adelaide
8th Richmond (Bulldogs - Home, Brisbane - Away) - MCG
4th Fremantle (West Coat - Home, Sydney - Home) - MCG

We need to win early to provide momentum and to offset and perhaps reduce late season form fluctuation.

Last year, finishing 17th, we beat 13th, 10th, 8th and 7th placed teams. We lost to Gold Coast by 8 points and

let GWS run away with the last quarter after being 7 points down at 3/4 time.

Our defense was strong last year - in scores against we ranked 11th. I'm confident that the defense will continue

to do its job and be better aided by recruits, our midfield and some increased scoreboard pressure from our forwards.

Much has rightly been made of our inability to score consistently. Previously it was our inability to get the ball forward.

Dawes' absence in round one will not help, but his presence thereafter will be invaluable. Garlett and Hogan

(amongst the regulars) should be able to capitalise on Kent and Lumumba bombs and a more mature midfield

delivery. Watts precision will be required and Bail, with eyes lowered, will give the team ample score assists.

How far can we go? I'll be disappointed if we don't win eight games but if I see the application, the intent and the

team capability improvements continue from last year I'll be at least comforted that steady progress in being made.

[Earl Hood 5,846]

1997. Wooden Spoon.

1998. Fourth.

Some sides can turn around things quite quickly.

Not sure if this team can engineer such a dramatic turnaround, but I am definitely expecting significant improvement.

I reckon 8-9 wins and a percentage in the 90s.

I dream too Ron but 97 to 98 was a return to where our list deserved to be if I remember it all. 1997 was a year of injury, Tingay, Lyon, Neitz, G Lovett, Shwartz etc. Come 1998 we had those players back plus Rigoni, TJ, JMac and Robbo contributing if my memory is correct? And the Whizz! Those were the days.

Are to dream we have that sort of potential on the list!