Playing Poker with an Injured Knee

[bush demon 2,014]

Is there a term in Poker where you off-load a weak hand in order to get a better hand?

Greater Western Sydney's taking gamble on Tom Scully's knee

[Crompton's the man 659]

Comes down to whether the sore knee was genuine or a reason put for nonpeformance.

If it is a degenerative condition you'd have to wonder.

If he plays unhampered from hereonin it reinforces the conspiracy theory.

In the article quoted it seems there is much care to use the term " signed" rather than committed or agreed.

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,664]

Is there a term in Poker where you off-load a weak hand in order to get a better hand?

Greater Western Sydney's taking gamble on Tom Scully's knee

Not quite what you asked, but 'the flop' comes to mind.

[hardtack 10,441]

maybe GWS will claim compo under the new ante-syphoning rules?

[Whispering_Jack 29,370]

Is there a term in Poker where you off-load a weak hand in order to get a better hand?

Greater Western Sydney's taking gamble on Tom Scully's knee

Every single poker hand is different and no single hand is dependent upon another.

That said, if Doc Larkins information on Tom's knee is correct, it raises some additional questions about the way in which the two clubs in question operate and why both of them were throwing substantial contracts in his direction.

In Melbourne's case, one would imagine that the club closely monitored the situation throughout the season and would have been fully aware of his condition. Yet, it reportedly offered him a $3m contract over 5 years. We're informed that at least the club never wavered from that figure while GWS kept upping the ante to the eventual $6m over 6 years.

Given that Tom Scully was a Melbourne player throughout the 2011 season and publicly stated on many occasions that he wanted to concentrate on his comitments to the club during the year and would not consider any offers until the season was over, it would be interesting to know exactly when the GWS medical people carried out their due diligence on him.

Surely they didn't leave it until last Sunday when Tom and his family flew up to Sydney?

Tom and his father told Hutchy and the 9 news crew that they were having a look around. Tom told him he clearly hadn't made up  his mind yet, so a busy day awaited them. They wouldn't have cleared the airport until late morning. Then there would have been the introductions to Kevin Sheedy, Choko and the GWS admin people, lunch, an inspection of the magnificent Skoda Stadium, the facilities at the Resort at Breakfast Point, time to consider the contract he was being offered and to discuss whether to accept, the acceptance, a cup of tea with Sheeds to celebrate the decision a bit of rehearsal for the promo that was filmed that day, the filming and by the time that was finished, the sun would have been well over the yardarm. 

So when did GWS carry out the medical examination and, if Larkins is right, why would GWS commit so much of the AFL's money to someone who is unlikely to play 120 games over the span of that 6 year contract? It would take a bunch of complete and utter fools to commit so much money to the sort of risk Larkins is suggesting Scully's recruiting poses.

Surely, the Doc must be wrong on this one?

[Webber 10,442]

Every single poker hand is different and no single hand is dependent upon another.

That said, if Doc Larkins information on Tom's knee is correct, it raises some additional questions about the way in which the two clubs in question operate and why both of them were throwing substantial contracts in his direction.

In Melbourne's case, one would imagine that the club closely monitored the situation throughout the season and would have been fully aware of his condition. Yet, it reportedly offered him a $3m contract over 5 years. We're informed that at least the club never wavered from that figure while GWS kept upping the ante to the eventual $6m over 6 years.

Given that Tom Scully was a Melbourne player throughout the 2011 season and publicly stated on many occasions that he wanted to concentrate on his comitments to the club during the year and would not consider any offers until the season was over, it would be interesting to know exactly when the GWS medical people carried out their due diligence on him.

Surely they didn't leave it until last Sunday when Tom and his family flew up to Sydney?

Tom and his father told Hutchy and the 9 news crew that they were having a look around. Tom told him he clearly hadn't made up  his mind yet, so a busy day awaited them. They wouldn't have cleared the airport until late morning. Then there would have been the introductions to Kevin Sheedy, Choko and the GWS admin people, lunch, an inspection of the magnificent Skoda Stadium, the facilities at the Resort at Breakfast Point, time to consider the contract he was being offered and to discuss whether to accept, the acceptance, a cup of tea with Sheeds to celebrate the decision a bit of rehearsal for the promo that was filmed that day, the filming and by the time that was finished, the sun would have been well over the yardarm. 

So when did GWS carry out the medical examination and, if Larkins is right, why would GWS commit so much of the AFL's money to someone who is unlikely to play 120 games over the span of that 6 year contract? It would take a bunch of complete and utter fools to commit so much money to the sort of risk Larkins is suggesting Scully's recruiting poses.

Surely, the Doc must be wrong on this one?

He's not wrong. It's just that GWS is prepared to take the risk. The reality is that there is chondral degeneration on the articular surface of Scully's patella, and it cannot get better. It will either stabilise somewhat and hardly degenerate much over the next few seasons, or it will progress more quickly. That's the risk they have taken for their 'marquee' player. I for one, am hugely relieved we have off-loaded him for 2 first round draft picks. Don't forget this will have an effect on his pre-season loading and his top end speed.

[btdemon 482]

If according to one poster on this site, that Scully made the jump after considerable pressure from his family, I can't help but think that the $2 million up-front payment was an insurance policy against not being able to claim all of his match payments. If he was fit and well, then staying at the Dees on $600,000 a year would have been quite attractive. If he is not sure of his "long-term-gevity, as the Ox would put it, then the up-front guarantee that he was free from all further financial worries, would be hard to ignore. Although initially upset about his move, I am now thinking we did alright.

Edited September 14, 2011 by btdemon

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

He's not wrong. It's just that GWS is prepared to take the risk. The reality is that there is chondral degeneration on the articular surface of Scully's patella, and it cannot get better. It will either stabilise somewhat and hardly degenerate much over the next few seasons, or it will progress more quickly. That's the risk they have taken for their 'marquee' player. I for one, am hugely relieved we have off-loaded him for 2 first round draft picks. Don't forget this will have an effect on his pre-season loading and his top end speed.

You are a gun! Would you please change your name to 'Dr' Webber.

I don't know whether you're right on this or not, but you sound very convincing. Surely the MFC should have picked this up prior to recruiting him too?

[mdemonski2 403]

He's not wrong. It's just that GWS is prepared to take the risk. The reality is that there is chondral degeneration on the articular surface of Scully's patella, and it cannot get better. It will either stabilise somewhat and hardly degenerate much over the next few seasons, or it will progress more quickly. That's the risk they have taken for their 'marquee' player. I for one, am hugely relieved we have off-loaded him for 2 first round draft picks. Don't forget this will have an effect on his pre-season loading and his top end speed.

His potential to be a star is largely due to his well known work ethic and be able to continually provide 'bursts' of speed. If this degenerative condition restricts his speed plus pre season loads, surley this is a massive concern. Will be interesting to see how it spans out. Hope for GWS not well and that we have dodged a massive bullet...

[Adzman 2,154]

A Scully with a sore knee is still better than half their roster. GWS knew the risk involved, and they took it to create interest in the club. It is a calculated risk and he will play good footy for them. GWS has been getting ripping media coverage with the Scully signings. To quote the castle "Just paid for itself"

[Harcourt 146]

The answer (IMHO and presuming we can now freely call a non MFC player a liar on this site) is that he did the medical when he flew back early from China when he knee wasn't as bad as it is now. He signed a binding agreement that GWS couldn't get out of. Again IMHO I'd doubt GWS would be feeling 100% comfortable with this signing now.

[sue 9,070]

The answer (IMHO and presuming we can now freely call a non MFC player a liar on this site) is that he did the medical when he flew back early from China when he knee wasn't as bad as it is now. He signed a binding agreement that GWS couldn't get out of. Again IMHO I'd doubt GWS would be feeling 100% comfortable with this signing now.

That doesn't explain why MFC still offered him a bundle since we'd be monitoring him all year, nor why GWS upped their offer near the end.

If it is indeed true that GWS did up their offer, then either:

- his managers are cunning negotiators OR

- $cully was seriously on the verge of signing with the demons and more bucks were needed to lure him away.

If the latter it true, all this hair-tearing about the bad MFC culture etc swaying his decision wasn't a concern to $aint $cully.

[diesel 420]

I won't be surprised if $cully plays 22 games next year with no knee problem but I couldn't care less now he's not an MFC player. If it is true that he will have some ongoing issues it doesn't look good for him in terms of building up his body which is still way too light to break or stick tackles.

[Guest Jack Donaghy]

I'm inclined to think there was an agreement in principle that was not binding, or even just a strong indication that he would 'consider an offer.'

As the signing drew nearer, Scully's side held out for more, or GWS knowing they needed to use their 1st year salary cap space on something offered more to get the deal over the line.

A contract was never in place, but Scully's willingness to entertain them through his management and undergo medicals on the downlow, indicated his interest was serious, and when they knew they had that, GWS knew they'd be able to offer enough to get him over the line once negotiations began in earnest.

[Guest Jack Donaghy]

Every single poker hand is different and no single hand is dependent upon another.

That said, if Doc Larkins information on Tom's knee is correct, it raises some additional questions about the way in which the two clubs in question operate and why both of them were throwing substantial contracts in his direction.

In Melbourne's case, one would imagine that the club closely monitored the situation throughout the season and would have been fully aware of his condition. Yet, it reportedly offered him a $3m contract over 5 years. We're informed that at least the club never wavered from that figure while GWS kept upping the ante to the eventual $6m over 6 years.

Given that Tom Scully was a Melbourne player throughout the 2011 season and publicly stated on many occasions that he wanted to concentrate on his comitments to the club during the year and would not consider any offers until the season was over, it would be interesting to know exactly when the GWS medical people carried out their due diligence on him.

Surely they didn't leave it until last Sunday when Tom and his family flew up to Sydney?

Tom and his father told Hutchy and the 9 news crew that they were having a look around. Tom told him he clearly hadn't made up  his mind yet, so a busy day awaited them. They wouldn't have cleared the airport until late morning. Then there would have been the introductions to Kevin Sheedy, Choko and the GWS admin people, lunch, an inspection of the magnificent Skoda Stadium, the facilities at the Resort at Breakfast Point, time to consider the contract he was being offered and to discuss whether to accept, the acceptance, a cup of tea with Sheeds to celebrate the decision a bit of rehearsal for the promo that was filmed that day, the filming and by the time that was finished, the sun would have been well over the yardarm. 

So when did GWS carry out the medical examination and, if Larkins is right, why would GWS commit so much of the AFL's money to someone who is unlikely to play 120 games over the span of that 6 year contract? It would take a bunch of complete and utter fools to commit so much money to the sort of risk Larkins is suggesting Scully's recruiting poses.

Surely, the Doc must be wrong on this one?

Would the doggies let Adam Cooney walk, considering his knee condition?

My understanding is that they are similar injuries and that Cooney would be one of the highest paid at the dogs.

Clubs seem willing to roll the dice on an injury of this nature.

[diesel 420]

- his managers are cunning negotiators OR

I think that's it. GWS have been played. I said months ago as the talk ramped up that GWS couldn't afford NOT to get $cully. They would have been left with a massive amount of egg on their faces and no credibility in the market if their main target rejected their overtures.

To back this up, MFC said they made one "responsible" offer and never got into third party deals. My conclusion based around the remaining evidence is that $cully was always going, from early in the year and his management have been working away in the background to get him the best deal, perhaps due to thoughts of his limited longevity in the game?

[Guest Jack Donaghy]

I think that's it. GWS have been played. I said months ago as the talk ramped up that GWS couldn't afford NOT to get $cully. They would have been left with a massive amount of egg on their faces and no credibility in the market if their main target rejected their overtures.

To back this up, MFC said they made one "responsible" offer and never got into third party deals. My conclusion based around the remaining evidence is that $cully was always going, from early in the year and his management have been working away in the background to get him the best deal, perhaps due to thoughts of his limited longevity in the game?

I don't think they care about credibility - I think they needed to get Scully because there was no one else.

And they had to spend a certain amount of their cap this year on somebody.

If they leave half their out-of-contract signings until next year, the money has to be frontloaded to go somewhere.

That lucky somewhere turned out to be Scully.

Yep, definitely, I think his longevity in the game played a major role in Scully's decision.

Even he doesn't know for sure whether he'll be right, or if he'll be hampered by his knee.

If Adam Cooney is a test case, we have dodged a serious bullet.

[jayceebee31 759]

Maybe we did know- but offering him a decent sum and making GWS up the ante gave us the two first round picks--maybe we could say we out smarted them. I genuinely believe we have come out the winner.

Scully will not be deemed as the one of the best in 2011. He would not even get in the best 100.Maybe in the best 150 .. but to compare him to Ablett is a farce.Yet we get the same compensation. Winners - the MFC.

[beelzebub 23,254]

Bullet dodged

Seems the Dees have much better poker players B)

Theres a term for GWS....... 'Fresh Fish"

[Mazer Rackham 14,971]

So when did GWS carry out the medical examination and, if Larkins is right, why would GWS commit so much of the AFL's money to someone who is unlikely to play 120 games over the span of that 6 year contract? It would take a bunch of complete and utter fools to commit so much money to the sort of risk Larkins is suggesting Scully's recruiting poses.

Surely, the Doc must be wrong on this one?

Part of it is that Sheedy is anxious to shove it up Melbourne.

I reckon that's why they picked up Junior as well.

More out of hope than logic. Sheedy doesn't do logic very well these days.

[beelzebub 23,254]

Many arent giving enough weight to how much for the GWS is about appearances and relevancy in this competitetion as opposed rational and reasoned operating.

Sheeds and Gubby have a train load of money...with more on the way. Its doesnt matter in the long term if they do make some calamatous decisions early on. They need to buy some form of cred that will impress the loclas and the press etc. Have to look like coming out all guns blazing.. Too bad theyre playing with Cap Pistols...but hey !!

There is logic to what Sheeds is doing albeit probably only understood by himself..lol But he is a cunning ol rat. He has implemented some ideas that have worked ( and some thayt dont ) He is forced in some ways to think outside teh box etc. Again..hes not paying sodoes it matter if not everything sticks.

Many think the Dees have bene totally stitched up....and maybe we ought just let people think that.

Once the Flop started...( and we knew of it) then it was game on from the Door to the River B)

GWS got conned and went all in. We let them .

If there was ever a good story for The Sting 2...Its this ...lol

Just as in the original...appearances can be very deceptive

Cant ya hear Joplin ??? lol

[Sideshow Bob 2,312]

Given that Doc Larkins shares his office with none other than Dr. Andrew Daff, our head doc, as well as the Bulldogs and Essendon doctors, you would assume he has some pretty good mail on it. Hell he more than likely would have seen the scans and been in on the actual diagnosing of Toms knee injury! If he thinks it won't hold up, it more than likely won't hold up and we have dodged a massive bullet on this. Good luck to the boy.

[Choko 493]

Given that Doc Larkins shares his office with none other than Dr. Andrew Daff, our head doc, as well as the Bulldogs and Essendon doctors, you would assume he has some pretty good mail on it. Hell he more than likely would have seen the scans and been in on the actual diagnosing of Toms knee injury! If he thinks it won't hold up, it more than likely won't hold up and we have dodged a massive bullet on this. Good luck to the boy.

I asked Tom fairly recently (3 weeks ago) how much his knee is going to be an issue over the journey, and he said it isn't an issue at all. Then again, I suppose he would say that.

[nutbean 8,838]

I'm inclined to think there was an agreement in principle that was not binding, or even just a strong indication that he would 'consider an offer.'

As the signing drew nearer, Scully's side held out for more, or GWS knowing they needed to use their 1st year salary cap space on something offered more to get the deal over the line.

A contract was never in place, but Scully's willingness to entertain them through his management and undergo medicals on the downlow, indicated his interest was serious, and when they knew they had that, GWS knew they'd be able to offer enough to get him over the line once negotiations began in earnest.

Whilst I am in the "nothing decided until the end" camp, I wont dismiss this as at least it explains why the GWS upped their offer by $1M and 1 year at the death knell. If nothing was binding and Scully "wavered" the upping of the offer makes sense.

I repeat again for all those who have relied on Journo's and sources and said it has been binding for months - that was the same sources and journo's that said $5m over 5 years. Explain to me why a binding offer had to leap by $1M and 1 year only weeks ago ?

[sue 9,070]

Whilst I am in the "nothing decided until the end" camp, I wont dismiss this as at least it explains why the GWS upped their offer by $1M and 1 year at the death knell. If nothing was binding and Scully "wavered" the upping of the offer makes sense.

I repeat again for all those who have relied on Journo's and sources and said it has been binding for months - that was the same sources and journo's that said $5m over 5 years. Explain to me why a binding offer had to leap by $1M and 1 year only weeks ago ?

Because Scully/management was threatening to sign with MFC and GWS couldn't live with the embarrassment of not getting him (and dosh is no issue to them)???