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Posted (edited)

Looking at some stats on the AFL website, and noticed something positive about Melbourne. In recent years one of the criticisms labelled at Melbourne is fade-outs across a game. A strong first half followed by a poor second, or a strong first quarter followed by a shocking second, and so on. Well this year we seem to have improved markedly in this respect. 

So far this season we have been consistent across all four quarters, winning 9, 9, 11, 11 across the four. This places us equal 3rd for total quarters won, tied on 40 with Richmond and West Coast. We're equal 4th with Geelong for first half performance, but the second half as you can see is where we really shine. We've won 22 second half quarters, to be ranked 1 in the competition! 

Just something little that's positive we can take away from the year so far. 

Full rankings:

First quarter wins

1st - Richmond & West Coast 11

2nd - Melbourne, Geelong, Swans 9

3rd - Filth* 8

4th - Port & Hawks 7

Second Quarter wins

1st - Richmond 11

2nd - Swans & West Coast 10

3rd - Melbourne, Geelong, Filth* 9

4th - Port & Hawks 8

3rd Quarter Wins

1st - Melbourne and Filth* 11

2nd - Port, Swans, Hawks 10

3rd - Geelong 9

4th - West Coast 8

5th - Richmond 6

4th Quarter Wins

1st - Richmond 12

2nd - Melbourne & West Coast 11

3rd - Port & Geelong 9

4th - Filth* 8

5th - Swans & Hawks 7

Edited by Brisbanedemonfan
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Equal third in quarters won but 6th on the ladder. This suggests we fade out even more than before!

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how are we equal 6th-9th on the ladder and 3rd in quarters won!?!   suggests we still need to find the will to win and just get over the line. Wins against Cats and Saints would have us where the stats say we should be (actually 2nd), but we choked twice

good news none the less.  plenty of positives mixed in with the frustration!

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21 minutes ago, DubDee said:

how are we equal 6th-9th on the ladder and 3rd in quarters won!?!   suggests we still need to find the will to win and just get over the line. Wins against Cats and Saints would have us where the stats say we should be (actually 2nd), but we choked twice

good news none the less.  plenty of positives mixed in with the frustration!

can add port to that list too

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1 minute ago, daisycutter said:

can add port to that list too

Evidence of 3 games where the end result win/loss determined by umpiring.

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26 minutes ago, DubDee said:

how are we equal 6th-9th on the ladder and 3rd in quarters won!?!   

Well we have lost two games (Geelong, St Kilda) by a combined 5 points.  

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Another fun fact:

Do supporters remember Glenn Luff's (from Champion Data) hot plot in 2015 and 2016 ?

It was a graph that showed a team was in the premiership window if their average scoring was 100 points > and their defence averaged 86 points <.

There is only one team to round 16, 2018 who is in the hot plot sweet spot.  Any guesses ?

The Dees are the only team in the premiership window based on this once used metric.

Btw, I know it's no longer relevant.  Footy changes quickly and scoring has dried up over the last couple of years.  Nonetheless, i thought it interesting when I checked lat night.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, ProDee said:

Another fun fact:

Do supporters remember Glenn Luff's (from Champion Data) hot plot in 2015 and 2016 ?

It was a graph that showed a team was in the premiership window if their average scoring was 100 points > and their defence averaged 86 points <.

There is only one team to round 16, 2018 who is in the hot plot sweet spot.  Any guesses ?

The Dees are the only team in the premiership window based on this once used metric.

Btw, I know it's no longer relevant.  Footy changes quickly and scoring has dried up over the last couple of years.  Nonetheless, i thought it interesting when I checked lat night.

Here's a better version IMO:

https://squiggle.com.au/

Live Squiggle

Edited by Fifty-5

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1 hour ago, Fifty-5 said:

Here's a better version IMO:

https://squiggle.com.au/

Live Squiggle

I often go on to squiggle.

Not sure how it correlates with what I posted.

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7 minutes ago, ProDee said:

I often go on to squiggle.

Not sure how it correlates with what I posted.

The Luff hot plot is a simplified version of the Live Squiggle which rates Defence and Attack.

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3 minutes ago, Fifty-5 said:

The Luff hot plot is a simplified version of the Live Squiggle which rates Defence and Attack.

OK.

I didn't have time to read.  Will look later.

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3 hours ago, ProDee said:

Another fun fact:

Do supporters remember Glenn Luff's (from Champion Data) hot plot in 2015 and 2016 ?

It was a graph that showed a team was in the premiership window if their average scoring was 100 points > and their defence averaged 86 points <.

There is only one team to round 16, 2018 who is in the hot plot sweet spot.  Any guesses ?

The Dees are the only team in the premiership window based on this once used metric.

Btw, I know it's no longer relevant.  Footy changes quickly and scoring has dried up over the last couple of years.  Nonetheless, i thought it interesting when I checked lat night.

Trouble is the team that won it in 2016 didn't feature in Luff's premiership window...

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28 minutes ago, rjay said:

Trouble is the team that won it in 2016 didn't feature in Luff's premiership window...

It hasn't really been the focus of much attention but the big change was the weeks rest before the finals. Now any team in the 8 can get a rest and put together a good September to win the flag. This is a major game changer altho the data sample is pretty small.

I suspect this fact has made much of the previous finals analysis redundant.

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1 hour ago, rjay said:

Trouble is the team that won it in 2016 didn't feature in Luff's premiership window...

Yes, I know.

Maybe I should have left it alone.  

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For anyone pulling out their hair over being higher ranked in quarters won than in ladder position, just remember that we won every quarter for almost four games in a row without a blemish. On the ladder you still only get one win for that, same as any team that won three quarters or even just won two but by a little more than their opponents won their two.

It's a bit like in elections where the overall vote balance doesn't match the seat balance and final winner - three wins at 51% is better than two at 80% and one loss at 49%!

 

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We're also starting to get more players past the 50 game mark which should equal greater consistency across the 4 quarters. Brayshaw and ANB will soon join Petracca, Oliver, Salem, Harmes and Hogan as fairly recent 50+ gamers. No longer a really young side anymore.

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We've got a lot of numbers that are positive for us, I think that's why it's a massive frustration to fans that we aren't higher. The good side to the positive numbers is that the pieces of the puzzle appear to be there, they just need assembling. The question is will it happen in time?

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1 hour ago, Pates said:

We've got a lot of numbers that are positive for us, I think that's why it's a massive frustration to fans that we aren't higher. The good side to the positive numbers is that the pieces of the puzzle appear to be there, they just need assembling. The question is will it happen in time?

I’m stil pi55ed at the umpire crucifixation against Port. We win that game and would have beaten Saints the following week and would be second. Even dropping Saints game would have been 4th.

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Just now, D4Life said:

I’m stil pi55ed at the umpire crucifixation against Port. We win that game and would have beaten Saints the following week and would be second. Even dropping Saints game would have been 4th.

Umpires interstate are always biased, it's a fact of life that sucks. We dominated them for the first half and were only in front by a nose, that was on us not being able to make the most of our opportunities going inside 50. So many stupid long bombs to outnumbered forwards. We had almost double their inside 50s, no team should lose with that kind of stat.

I agree that had we beaten Port we probably would've had the confidence the following week to beat the Saints.

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1 minute ago, Pates said:

Umpires interstate are always biased, it's a fact of life that sucks. We dominated them for the first half and were only in front by a nose, that was on us not being able to make the most of our opportunities going inside 50. So many stupid long bombs to outnumbered forwards. We had almost double their inside 50s, no team should lose with that kind of stat.

I agree that had we beaten Port we probably would've had the confidence the following week to beat the Saints.

Agree with your 2nd point. Don’t like the first even if it’s true, rather blame the umps!

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2 hours ago, bingers said:

I hate the filth ... so much.

34 to go but they might beat you yet!

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On 7/11/2018 at 3:08 PM, rjay said:

Trouble is the team that won it in 2016 didn't feature in Luff's premiership window...

Never let the facts get in the way of a good theory.

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