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Not sure how long you have been following the dees, but we have a very different definition of what could be considered a disappointing team. I have been following the dees for aprox 45 years but started going to games regularly in 1978 (by myself back then - no one i knew barracked for the dees). That year we won the wooden spoon. Fun times. We had a stellar year in 1979 and really started our march up the ladder, ending the season in 11th. Not bad until you consider there were only 12 teams. And that time Fitzroy thrashed us by a still record margin was such a gas. But boy o boy, was 1980 awesome. We were marching up the ladder! Jumped up to 9th (in a 12-team competition)! Oh, oh - 1981 wasn't much fun. Yet another wooden spoon. So bad were we that we came within a bees whisker of merging with the Hawks and the oldest sporting club in the world almost ceasing to exist. 186. The Neeld years. Et cetera; et cetera; et cetera. Hopefully, you get my drift. In all seriousness, we are currently 4th on the ladder with an ok injury list and a soft run home. We are currently equal third favorite to win the flag (but will enter the finals as favorite IMHO). We are $1.40 to make the top 4 (by way of contrast the Cats are next best at $6 to make the top 4 and the Saints, who are only four points behind us, are $7 to make the top 4). For context, we are 1.40 to win Sunday and Winx ran around at that price. A serious question - do you rate the Pies? Well, a reminder, we beat them, the favorites for the flag, just two games ago! Can't have your cake and eat it too - if we are a disappointing side, the Pies must be pretenders not contenders. But really, in what universe could this current dees team, premiers in 2021 and finished second on the ladder at the end of the 2022 H&A season (and yes, we went out in straight sets in the finals), be considered a disappointing team? Not in my universe i can assure you.

Noooooooooo!!!!!!! Don't mention the switch!!!!!!!!! Way, way too triggering for some. By the by, here's how I see the next few games - which will involve intermittent switch flicking before the switch gets permanently flicked. Nine day break into the giants game (and travel, so essentially forced rest) - attacking footy and run all over the giants (who are coming off their bye). Look a different team than the dour, gassed unit in the 4th quarter against the cats. Win. Six day break and travel into the saints game - much to the chagrin and consternation of many DL posters, another dour, defence first match with little fast transition from the back. Fortunately the saints, with their dour, deliberate ball movement and defence first game plan can't exploit our lack of run - particularly at marvel with its lack of space. Win. Six day break into a Friday night game at the g v lions - dour, but not as dour as the saints game. Some fascinating variables: the lions are also coming off a six day break, but unlike us have to travel; 8 point game (could well determine if lions get a gabba final week one - potentially against us); lions are slow and so won't be able to exploit any lack of run we have the way, say the dogs would; the G factor. 50 50 game. Round 19 - 24 - hello moto; starting with a 9 day break into the crows game, we have a great run home with only one short break - six days between the roos and blues games. Two travelss - tassie and Sydney. But the Sydney game is followed by the pre finals bye, so no post game impact. Unleash the beast and a return to the offensive power of rounds 1-5 (and round 16). Wow. David King says we changed our approach. DL posters say the same. No mention of 'scoring problems'. Win. Win. Win. Win. Win. Win. Happy days.

I think that’s a really poor appraisal of what BBB brings to us. He’s never crumbled at the top level, he trains and plays as well as his degenerative knee allows him. He also supports the AFLW side with coaching. He’s been a great asset to the club. I think he’s cooked but can’t wait for him to prove me wrong.

Tomlinson must be livid and rightly so. Again, we have too many small forwards. The correct change would have been to keep JVR in and drop one of ANB, Pickett, or Chandler.

I like the changes but I wouldn’t be surprised if our final tall forward set up in 6 weeks time is Brown, JvR, Fritsch and the resting ruck.

Nup Im in the opposite camp Van Rooyen has done little since his 3 goal cameo vs Richtank, and I like what Smitb has done so far!!

Is he looking cute in a knee brace?

Demonland hypocrisy alert #472 On selection, they are clearly taking a squad mentality atm. I reckon any posters who stridently criticised goody last season for not rolling fresh players through the side at this time of year, being 'stubborn', too rigid, too boring, not managing players, nt doing what the Cats were doing etc etc should refrain from criticising him this season for doing exactly what said posters wanted him to do.

I wouldn't. Bar the Hawthorn game he's been incredibly poor this year. Absolute joke he was brought straight back in front of an in form defender where for once this year our defence was looking first class. He can earn his spot back just like Bowey had to this week.

Toby Greene is an outstanding player. Love watching him play. He won the game for them in 21 at the G. If we can keep him quiet we will win the game. If he gets off the leash then it’s 50/50

ANB nullified our ability to win last week with his fumble fingers.

I reckon BBB in for JVR is nothing more than the club trialling the BBB, smith and fritta combo for 2 or 3 weeks JVR will be back in soon…..

Nor do I. I think we'll win 8 of our last 9 games.

The club is flirting with Mitch Georgiades

Players agree to go to wherever drafted for the initial period, and that is to make the draft workable. Then a few years later on, the player commits to a club, buys a house, puts his kids in school or whatever and can then be told a little while later, you are playing across the other side of the country, without friends and family support and lump it or leave it. There are other people involved in these deals, not just the player, but often family as well. Won't happen.

It was a hard shot for Fox, he was at least 5 metres out with no one in front of him.

I think the FD has been planning Browns return for a few months. He’s been playing at half throttle for Casey then as we move beyond the loading period he gets his knee drained and he’s back in the ones. I think it’s zero desperation and totally planned and logical. If he can play some good footy over the next month and remain pain free then great. If he can’t we settle on an alternative, which I’m sure we’re planning for.

It’s a bit like that, I never thought I’d see us win one. Yet whilst I understand they are had to win and a lot of luck is involved I do think this group we have with its age profile and potential growth of some of our young group I know by 2026/7 I will think we’ve underachieved if we haven’t won two flags on gone deep in at least 2 finals campaigns

Darcy Fritsch, 24, 194cm, 92kg from Coldstream and Williamstown is making his debut for the Northern Bullants against Carlton VFL at IKON Park tomorrow afternoon.

Maybe, but this way we get a look at Brown and Smith together. Smith should compensate for BB's inability at ground level.

Just sparing the competition the dominant forward line of a fit Ben Brown, a hungry and angry JVR and an electrifying JSmith. I for one am looking forward to seeing that.

You're right, they should be taxed and advertising banned. But I don't see how the two issues are related. It's a logical fallacy to say one thing shouldn't be regulated until everything is, each is addressed on its own merits.

Happiness is a warm switch.

Agree. Of the teams around the 8 bubble, i rate the Crows, Suns and Giants (in that order) as the teams on the rise. All have chance of making the 8 this season i reckon - though the Cats will make it hard for all three to do so. The Giants and Crows have both adopted the Pies fast ball movement, but i think the Giants have a better defensive system (to be clear - not a better defence) than the Pies and Crows. And all three teams are strong in the contest and have a good mix of grunt and silk. And the Crows, Giants and Suns all have very strong lists, loaded with first round draft picks. Stronger lists than the teams around them at similar stage of their development - Saints, Bombers and Freo. And at the end of the day, teams don't win a flag without a quality list. On the Suns, i really hope they stick fat with Dew and resist any temptation to be seduced by having a premiership coach in Hardwick swan a=in and take over. Dew has done the hard yards and his players have bought in - as evidence by resigning some key players. Stay the course.

I think we'll aim to flick the switch a week later at Round 20 or even 21, @binman, but it'll be fascinating to see. I expect us to win at least 6 out of the remaining 9. If we win more, I think we'll finish top 2.

I'll be amazed if Petty doesn't play.

Ben Brown is averaging three goals per game at AFL level this year.

The Uncle Bitter convoy has arrived in the fair Hamlet of Burra on route to Alice. The locals are very excited of course. I'm currently enjoying a libation at "The Burra" and , I must say the dining facilities are very pleasant (albeit rustic)!

Great result for the dees all round. Makes it harder for cats to surge. But two points to both swans and cats might keep them ahead of freo.

Your soul is redeemed Rubbish Binny. It's a story that, more-or-less, mirrors mine. Made a deal with the devil in '77. Uncle said he'd take me to the footy if I barracked for the Demons. I was a child! He, on the other hand, lived through the golden era of the '50s and early '60s and was adamant the great days would return soon enough. The wonderful era of Dennis Jones can be best summed up by Robert Flower in his book. Dedicated a whole chapter to it if I remember. "The least said about this year the better". End of chapter. Uncle moves to NT at the beginning of '79 Saw the blood bath on my own in July with 15,000 other hardy souls. Remember coming away from the game thinking our forward line was hopeless and that if we only had Bob Beecroft, it would all turn to gold. Sound familiar? Thought we were on a role with Big Carl in '79-'80. Loved him and begged him not to leave: face-to-face Then took the train from Glen Iris to whatever [censored] hole we were playing at most weeks on my own for years. Winning a game felt like a premiership for me. Rode the ups and downs for decades and had resolved in my heart I would never see a Dee flag. And for the most part, it was okay. I took solace in some great wins and watched some truly wonderful footballers. So fast-forward to 2021. When I watch the replay, talk to my mates about it, and almost every time a tear comes to my eye (like right now). Whatever anyone ever says that is disparaging about the Deez, I remind them: we invented the game, we built the greatest stadium in the world - three times, were time and again handy-capped by the VFL/AFL who quite deliberately designed the rules of the game to [censored] our growth and development, and played the greatest 40 minutes of transcendent grand final footy in the history of the game. So, yes @binman, I'm with you. A disappointing team in 2023? Let's make a realistic judgement about this era in 15 years from now. And at worst, we might say that we missed an opportunity - à la Norf in '98. Regardless of everything, in the mystery of hurtling through time and space on spaceship Earth, I forever love the Deez and will always have Paris . . . as they say.

There's no need to be that personal. He holds a different view, but that's his prerogative.

I disagree. I am not against resting him, but competitively he’s been very good and I think he is part of our best 22.

You could say I've been nullified

They are different types. Smith is very athletic and just needs continuity to build some solid form. He will be a difficult 3rd tall to match up on and allows Fritta to take the small defender which is better for him too. For all the criticism against our forward line, to me it’s not the players as much as it is the coaching and game plan. Fix the later and we are back to a 100+ points per game team.

JVR is just a kid and kids get dropped. We aren’t a teaching hospital anymore - we are in it to win it. As I have said through out the year - JVR is promising but he needs development and I just don’t think he is going to get that in the AFL. He may push out one of smith and brown and I think he will play more games but I think our best team has him outside the 22 this year.

A pessimist is an optimist in full possession of the facts.

Melksham could still be sub.

I agree that if you look it at like that then we are average, and there is far more nuance and context to make sense of that record is why it is. Any given year - injuries and carrying injuries into games are the biggest predictors of outcomes. ‘22 it’s been outlined that last 2/3 months we had significant structural issues due to injuries as well as multiple players playing injured. ‘23 we’ve also had some key injuries, blooding new players and we’re still 4th, If we can get Oliver back, and a few other things, such as refinement of gameplay and the training regime, I’d say we’re a greater likelihood of improving that record significantly. And who knows - optimistically/realistically snag another flag. Our game plan clearly stacks up against the sexy pie machine…

Alternatively may we humbly suggest the much more soulful Ann Peebles original, " I can't stand the rain". With an eye on the weather here's our tongue and cheek homage. Greg Stafford can't stand the rain Against his forward six Bringing back sweet memories Hey forward six Do you remember How sweet it used to be? When it was all together late last September (2021) Everything was so Grand Now we're so disconnected There's just no accuracy Can't stand in the rain...

Yes it’s disappointing and is a loss. But silver lining is that he was being managed across the season, this is a chance to freshen up as well. Get him right for rounds 19-20 onwards.

It happens in other sports. The difference being in those sports, players are paid so well that they can literally flip & burn houses (through agents) and pay it no mind. To that end, if the AFLPA were to ever agree with this, I would expect it would be a tradeoff to get players a larger slice of the pie & elevate their earnings significantly.

Yup we get short end of the stick again like we did with Mac Andrew. Although with hindsight I’d take JVR every day of the weeks anyways.

should not have played last week in my view and is still probably not ready

I honestly can't see how he gets back to full fitness this year. The only thing that would get him a game right now is his incredible aerobic ability to cover the ground, and it would be a minor miracle for him to regain that having missed half a pre season and half a season. He was in poor form earlier in the year even before this latest setback, and we are already carrying an underdone Gawn. Two big men who can't get out of first gear is hardly ideal. Add to that BBB, and you are left with a very immobile and slow forwardline. As for JVR, I would rest him for rounds 21-23 and bring him back ahead of finals. He is giving us a good contest, and of all the forward this year, he has been the one to nail crucial shots on goal at critical times. I reckon he would thrive in finals, and it would be a mistake to drop him. If he has a stinker in week 1, then you can review it. But he deserves to play. I also want to see him play alongside BBB. I think the protection another really big body will afford him, will totally change his game.

This tweet provides an interesting example of how the footy media often uses data to create a narrative and/or advance a specific argument. Let's say Montagna wanted some data to strengthen his argument that the demons have a 'scoring issue'. He might use this single data point - and the tweet itself - to make his case. He and King use a single data point all the time to do exactly that (ie advance a specific, often narrow, argument). And just as Justin Giuliano does with that tweet, they often use a psychological technique called 'framing'. Framing, which i think has its origins in advertising, is very widely used in advocacy, government, campaigning, polling etc etc. The goal of framing is to influence the recipient's thinking to achieve a specific aim or advance a specific agenda. In the case of advertisers, the aim is to sell stuff. For government, it might be to promote a particular policy position (a classic example, that is often used to demonstrate the framing technique, is the language the Labor and Liberal parties use to dehumanize people seeking asylum in Australia by boat). In his tweet, Giuliano has used framing to influence reader's analysis of the data in the tweet - the dees have 'scoring problems' This is achieved by an explanatory para that primes readers to read the chart through the lens of the dees' supposed 'scoring troubles'. And doubles down on that framing by comparing us with a team in historically poor form - and uses a shocked emoji to not so subtlety ram his point home: 'Another perspective of the Dees' recent scoring troubles is looking at points scored per inside 50. Whilst Dees are 8th overall this season with 1.61 points per I50, they are 17th over the last 5 weeks (4 games), only marginally better than the Eagles (1.13 vs 1.11)😮' What i would like to see is Champion Data and the analysts in the footy media help educate footy fans on how to interpret and understand data, not use it to prime them to prima facie accept an argument they making. Without getting into the discussion about whether we have a 'scoring problem', here are the contextual thoughts and questions i had when reading the chart to help me understand what it was saying and put the data into some sort of context: Unlike the Eagles, we are a forward half team that looks to trap it in our forward line, and if we can't do so, set up a wall to increase the likelihood we will turn it over at half forward and re-enter our 50 That model means the ball is often coming back into a very crowed forward line because almost all players from both teams have pressed up into our forward half Logic suggests that a crowded forward line makes it harder to score, which probably helps explain why we are still only mid table for points scored per inside 50 even when traveling well What then are our re-entry numbers in this period, have they dropped off too? Are our tackles inside 50 stats relevant here? Have all teams dropped off in that stat in the relevant time period (that's to say is this a league wide trend we are tracking with)? Is the drop of consistent and/or correlated and/or explained and/or interconnected with other relevant stats (eg accuracy)? Is there any key personnel differences that should be factored in (eg no genuine second tall in these four games)? Logic suggests young players will be impacted by fatigue more than seasoned players (as evidenced in the drop off in player ratings and pressure points for young players in this phase of the season) How much weight then should be given to the fact that with JVR, Chandler, Kozzie and Chandler we have a very young forward line that is very likely to be struggling with the rigors of an AFL season in this period? If we are comparing the dees to the Eagles, how young is their forward line? The sample size is very small - only four games Who were those four games against (answer: Freo, Blues, Pies and Cats)? How much weight should be given to the quality of the opposition (by way of contrast, in that same period, the Pies played the Roos, Eagles, Dees and the Crows)? How much weight should be given to the fact that 25% of the teams in the sample are one on top of the AFL ladder and have a very strong defensive system? Is it relevant that we had 9 more scoring shots than the Pies? In the four games in the chart, should the conditions be factored into the analysis? As an example of the relevance of the above question, the Blues and Cats' games were played at night in cold, dewy conditions and the cats games was also wet and slippery conditions - logic suggests that it is harder to convert inside 50s into scores in such conditions Given 50% of the games were played at night and 25% of the sample size were played in wet conditions, how much does that skew the results? What were the conditions the Eagles played in - are we comparing like for like? What is AFL average score to inside 50 ratio in wet conditions? How much weight should be given to the fact that 25% of the sample size is at a ground that is different in shape and size to every other AFL ground, is hard to score at and the narrowness of the ground makes for crowded forward lines? How much weight should be given to the fact that 25% of the sample size is against a team (the Cats) that has a massive home ground advantage, plays the ground well, trains on the ground, and has created a defensive system perfectly suited for that venue (not to mention having one of the best key defenders in the AFL in Stewart)? What is the dees historical score to inside 50 ratio at Kardinia park? What are other teams score to inside 50 ratio at Kardinia park? Historically, how important/significant is score to inside 50 ratio in terms of it being a useful indicator of the chances of winning a flag, ie does it actually matter if we are down on that stat? What was the dees score to inside 50 ratio in the corresponding period last year? What was the dees score to inside 50 ratio in 2021 home and away season? What was the dees score to inside 50 ratio from round 16 in 2021 and 2022 (ie should we expect this stat to improve- this would be useful to know, because if the answer is yes, then it might be an issue of concern if it doesn't rebound)? What was the dees score to inside 50 ratio in the 2021 finals series? What was the score to inside 50 ratio for the winners of the last say, 10 flags? Why was this particular time frame (five weeks) chosen - because it suited a particular narrative? Why do he choose, for instance, not to go back another two week and include our loss to Port and the demolition of the hawks - that would give a more representative sample size (ie the last six games versus the 8 previous games)? Do we have a 'scoring problem? Alternatively, we could just accept the author's framing, and simply agree with what we are being primed to think - the dees have 'scoring problems'.

Not a lot which is to be expected from a club with few real fans! I believe this is our first trip to play in the Northern Territory. For a bit of perspective, those out-of-form Demons have been playing there since 2014, winning four and losing four. We got smacked by the Dees at the MCG last year to the tune of eleven goals. That was in Round 5 and there’s been a lot of water under the Todd River bridge since then. The bookies have us at very long odds for this game, which is fair enough because we haven’t taken a big scalp just yet. The wildcard is the bye. Over the past decade, our record after the mid-season break has been three wins, nine losses. Yes, we won last year, but that was against North. Dees carved up by the cats backs who ran it out with ease …. We get our running game going and a definite chance Oliver out is a massive loss. Their midfield looks nowhere near as potent in the last month of footy. Agreed. Oliver out is a huge loss for them. They still strangle teams but our scoring has been much improved. I honestly think it's a 50/50 game Bring the intense pressure and we are a chance. This ground is a much better advantage for us vs the MCG where we have always struggled. The other big win is the venue. Packing in 40k at the G would have been a huge advantage for melb. I rate the team we have on the park. I back our Mids against most teams If Kingers coaches down on the boundary, we’re a chance! My Favourites Because poster is in fantasy land! A few weeks ago, I thought we weren’t a finals side, but at 6-8 we’re still in the hunt. Because a fool and his money will soon be parted! I might see if I’ve got a spare couple of hundred dollars lying around somewhere Rain, hail or shine Dees by 3 goals... ...lots more if ground is dry...

I think this is how the ins and outs will pan out. In: Tomlinson, Harmes, Bowey, Brown Out: Petty, Jordon, Hibberd, JVR Sub: Melksham

JVR only if banged up imv AF. Smithy's doing what a forward shld do ....kicking goals. We have 3 smalls, at least one too many. Aside from Kozzy, Chandler and the sub Spargo aren't bothering the scorer and haven't for weeks now. The smart thing to do is to drop one of them for BB. For me at this point that would be Chandler. Assuming BB comes in then we don't need one of the tap bros to rest up forward where they are mostly innefective, rarely kick goals and end up bringing more oppo with them making the 50 even more congested than it usually is. Grundy as sub. Spargo remains at Casey. Bowey in for ANB. Tomo in for Hibb. Melk should also probably be getting a guernsey on the bench this week for Jordan. Sparkling goal kicking form and would be leading the way with instructions for some of the less experienced forwards. His voice and direction to the likes of Kozzy, JVR and others would be invaluable. Even if it was just for a small block of games. Our present forward line, bar Fritsch, is devoid of leadership and experience. BB's return this week will help on the exp side somewhat and hopefully a decent assist in taking the heat off JVR a little.

Why the hate for Kel underwood? Really? you’d prefer Brian 1980s brain Taylor?