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Here's a little something I'll share from a contact I have. Recently, Goody spoke at an event to a small group, (I won't divulge) but there were no media in attendance. The first thing I'll say is that both my source and I have been critical of Goodwin and his media performances in the past, however at this event he was very different, was honest and opened up a great deal more regarding this season. Some talking points and discussion: * The disruption and snowball effect the pre-season surgeries had cannot be underestimated. Didn't have nearly enough time with the players to not only get the required conditioning in, but to run and trial drills, build cohesion etc etc.. (We all know it's had an impact but he stressed the point again). * He believed in some ways that we were lucky to make the prelim with the list we had. We were slightly ahead of where he thought we should be by the end of last year and the hype that followed us into this season was too much. * There are some issues with staff and coaches right now and there will be big changes made end of year. (The event was held before the McCartney news broke) * The main message was that there will be some big changes to both playing list and staff at the end of the year. He doesn't believe we have the list to take us to the promised land. * Goody didn't say this but my source got the impression that a captaincy change up could be on the cards. (Gawn). I'll put my hand up to say that normally I'm hyper critical of Goodwin in media interviews for the lack of insight and information he shares, but I was assured that he was a completely different character away from the camera. Thought I'd share, looking forward to the end of this year.

On Richardson, Goodwin meant he’s not looking at Richardson as in not looking at him because it’s not his job at the moment. He didn’t say the club isn’t interested - the way I interpreted it anyway.

Why can't we ever hear the questions on coach pressers? It is really annoying Microphones are not that expensive ffs

I'd have expected the message to sound like: We've averaged 91 points against since the break, we'll be working hard on defensive running in the midfield to stem the bleeding We don't have a forward line that can kick 90 points - we'll be going back to a 2014 Roosy approach where we embed defence first. Especially in the wet. We will win this game by limiting opposition scoring opportunities. Speaking of the wet, we saw again last week after half time that we're still too cute with a slippery ball and over possess, as we have been since I started as coach. We saw first hand from a good wet weather team how to play in those conditions and we'll be drilling the players to implement the same this week. Our quality of disposal on a turnover isn't great - we're not going to go flat out at every opportunity because we've seen that we just give the ball back far too often. I'm frustrated, and I know our supporters are frustrated. We were good for half a game last week. Yes - there's something to work with, but you don't win games of footy being good for a half. I understand why our supporters might question our leadership/captaincy when we are consistently beaten week in week out and our leaders are not demonstrably leading (eg laying tackles).

I don't mind giving him another year playing as a forward. i think his experience is huge for our group, and will be vital for us to push back up the ladder.

I am lucky to have a close contact with access to a lot of AFL statistics (the same data set the clubs generally have available to them ). I asked him to do some digging on the Dees' season, in particular looking for anything that would prove useful in helping us all understand where things have gone wrong this year. In no particular order, this is what he found: There's been a lot of discussion about injuries, and lately, Richmond and Collingwood fans complaining they have it the worst of all. The data says we have averaged 6.5 'best 22' players missing over the first 19 rounds of the season; in total we have missed 117 'best 22' games. Richmond have averaged 5.11 (92 total), while Collingwood have averaged 3.94 (71 total). This highlights Richmond's depth as stronger than both Melbourne or Collingwood - they've got guys like Caddy running around in the VFL while we have...JKH/Dunkley/Lockhart and Coll have Daicos/Brown etc. Looking at the round by round breakdown of this - you can see that this number (# of best 22 injured) correlates strongly with form. Richmond's injuries have improved markedly since the bye and their form has peaked. Collingwood's have been unlucky with injury since the bye and they have been ordinary. Of course we've been ordinary for the whole year... When you break this down by position it confirms what we know - our midfield has stayed pretty much full strength all year, but the forward and backline have had either 3.77 best 22 players missing on average (fwd line) or 2.6 best 22 players missing on average (backline). The impact on both ends of the grounds shouldn't be underestimated and suits the narrative of our year - unable to score, unable to defend inside 50s, but still ok at generating our own (pre-game plan change in the last couple of weeks). Goodwin keeps trotting out that we've had no continuity at either end of the ground - and he's right. I've attached these two breakdowns to this post. Don't pay much attention to sirswampthing's post highlighting that Collingwood have the most 'games played' on the injuries list. Break that out and 750 of those games are from players outside the best 22 / retiring (e.g Wells, Beams, Goldsack etc.). Misleading and clickbait for the biggest supporter base. Out of players who have played at least 10 games, Frost and OMac are the two who have cost us the most scores as a % of their turnovers. Frost is ranked 12th in the league (1st = a really bad thing), conceding a score 34% of the time he turns it over, resulting in 17 shots at goal (9 goals 8 ) directly from his turnovers. Omac is ranked 15th in the league, conceding a score 33% of the time. Bailey Fritsch has cost us the most amount of points from turnovers this year. His 66 turnovers for the year (ranked equal 94th in the league) have cost us 89 points directly, which is ranked 4th in the comp. We all love his skills; but his turnovers hurt us. We're better with him camped inside 50 and our increased efficiency over the last 3 weeks is in no small part due to having a natural forward like him back in the 50. In order of worst to best, the top 8 players who have hurt us the most and have resulted in an overall negative score from turnovers and intercepts combined are: Fristch, Omac, Frost, Hibberd, Hore, Brayshaw, Salem, J Wagner. Other than Fritsch and Brayshaw this isnt surprising; our defenders can't kick. Salem has had more ball than any of these guys but is 7th on the list; so he is the best kick we have in the D50 (other than Jones when he plays there). Conversely, the players who have generated the most scores from intercepts, while keeping their turnovers to a minimum, and to have played at least 10 games, are: Jones, Petracca, Gawn, Oliver, Viney (Surprising!), Lockhart, Hunt, Tmac, Harmes. James Harmes is the only player at the Dees ranked in the top 50 (49th) for average handball receives per game, which is an indicator of outside run. For context, Richmond have 6 players in the top 50; Collingwood have 8. Petracca is mostly accurate everywhere: he is 10.8 from set shots, 5.1 on the run, 4.3 from snaps, 1.0 from mark play on, 1.0 off the ground. 5.0 from <15m, 4.4 from 15-30m, 2.2 from 31-40m, 7.4 from 41-50m, 3.2 from 50m+. He's above AFL average in all these categories, with exception of 15-30m and 31-40m kicking, which is bang on AFL average. Harmes is not accurate from anywhere. He has 3.3 from <15m, an awful 2.6 from 31-40m and 4.8 from 41-50m. Against Richmond, 14 players had less than one tackle. This was widely discussed. However, it wasn't from lack of effort. We had more tackle attempts than Richmond, but went at 25% efficiency. Poor technique, not strong enough, lazy, mentally checked out, who knows. The loss of Hogan on Tom Mac and Wiedeman should not be understated. Last year, Weideman played 3 good games - vs. West Coast in Rd 22, then Geelong in the EF and Hawks in the SF. His opponents in those games based on most % of gametime were: Brad Sheppard (HBFer, not a KPD), Lachie Henderson and David Mirra. This year, Weideman has had 3 games of 'good' output, 2 pass marks and 6 poor matches. The 3 good games he played on: Jacob Weitering, Aaron Francis, Jack Watts. Decent names but not A grade defenders by any means. The pass mark games, he played on Darcy Moore and Tom Mccartin. The poor games, he played on Harris Andrews, Griffin Logue/Joel Hamling, Alex Keath, David Astbury, Nathan Brown/Josh Battle, Mark Blicavs. Basically, when he played on good or experienced opponents, he's not much chop. Now lets look at who Tom Mac towelled up last year on his way to 50 goals: Patrick Ambrose, Jack Carlisle, Rory Thompson, Sam Rowe, Myles Poholke, Jason Johannisen, Matt Scharenberg, Dougal Howard, Jackson Trengove, Josh Jenkins, Tom Barrass, Lachlan Keefe, James Frawley. This is a who's who of average defenders/mismatches save for Barrass and Frawley (dont ask about Jenkins; perhaps Tom went back that day? I can't remember). This year Tom Mac has had to play on Tom Jonas, Mark Blicavs, Phil Davis, Daniel Talia and so on. The only defender he towelled up was Liam Jones. His best games were against Jones, Oscar Allen, Aliir Aliir. This info is available to the coaching staff. If they haven't looked at this and realised that our two KPF hopes are not capable of playing on top line defenders and that we need a key fwd to take the heat off these guys, then you have to wonder what they are doing. Oscar Mcdonald has only had one 'good' performance this year - against Nick Blakey. He has been beaten by: Josh Jenkins, Shaun McKernan, Tom Papley (mismatch), Paddy Ryder and Josh Corbett. Frost has beaten: Tom Lynch (Rich, early on), Levi Casboult, Josh Bruce, Jarryd Roughead, and Jack Lukosius. Has been beaten by: Lance Franklin, Jeremy Cameron, Jack Darling, Jack Riewoldt, Eric Hipwood. Angus Brayshaw played 90% of his time on ground last year in the midfield. This year, that is down to 60%. He has spent 24% of his time on the wing, 16% in the forward line. Of our top 5 centre bounce attendees, Brayshaw was also our most effective centre square player we had last year across a number of measures: Clearance differential (19.4, ahead of next best Harmes 11.2), Inside 50 differential (18.8, ahead of next best Oliver/Viney both 12.5) and scoring differential (8.1, ahead of next best 6.7 Viney). Brayshaw was involved in 345 centre square clearances last year. This year he is down to 215. Forgetting the top 5 attendees for a moment, our best centre bounce player by a huge margin is....Jake Melksham. His clearance differential is 31.4, next best is Petracca (16.7), then Jones, and then to Brayshaw and the rest of the regular crew. Of course, Melkham's data is perhaps limited by sample size. Melksham ranks 17th in our side for actual centre bounce attendances, whilst Petracca ranks 10th. The two are our most effective centre bounce players. Brayshaw is one of our best; but he is being played out of position. There are of course weaknesses in all of these statistics - they never tell the full story, there are subjective categorisations applied to 'good/pass mark/bad' and 'best 22' - but I found some of the above quite interesting. For me, what stands out is that the FD thought Tom Mac & Weid were ready to replace Hogan's output, but the warning signs were there if they were to look at the data. We miss his ability to draw the best defender, his presence all around the ground, and his general offensive skillset. No use crying about it now; but given this data is available to the club I find it disappointing they sat on their hands and thought the forward line was sorted even with his departure. Discuss!

I'm no fan of Goodwin but what do people want him to say, really? I stopped listening to coach and player press conferences years ago. They are just bait shops for journos to get a hyperbolic headline from. He could talk about a good receipe for muffins and I wouldn't give a [censored]. I judge him on game day.

He didn't say any such thing at all, would be an idea if people just stopped making things up.

I can write you a shell script which can automate the authoring and posting of these one dimensional comments for you. It will be a simple script with minimal parameters, consistent with your normal output on Demonland. It will free you up for other things like yelling at customer service staff or whinging about franking credits, both things I assume you do regularly.

Oh look, Jake Lever was put back on the ground when he injured his ankle ... and he's playing the following week. That's not the way it's supposed to work.

Come on mate, you go out of your way to find things to whinge about and criticise the club continually. I doubt there is a single Demon fan who is happy with what has transpired this season, but bleating on an internet forum doesn't help anybody. Unless it makes you feel better? Or maybe you're just a troll? *responding to Sorry poster, not DemonOx!

Goodwin inspires me less with each passing weel...

Just to reinforce your point - the Cats, Pies, and West Coast have in order the 5th, 3rd, and 4th oldest lists. We're 13th for age and 14th for games played. The Bulldogs are 12th and 13th. The Tigers are 10th for average age, but are 6th for games played and have 14 players with over 120 games under their belts compared to our eight: five of those who haven't gotten on the field for the bulk of 2019. That leaves Jones, Hibberd and TMac. For the record, Geelong have 15, Collingwood 16, and West Coast 14 players with over 120 games of experience. Without naming the players it's obvious each of these team's core drivers are also older and more experienced compared to ours. Here, I've run some numbers (fairly quickly so there might be minor errors). Going by the top six in last year's best and fairest results, the average games played for each team's best on-field third was as follows: Geelong: 195.8 Collingwood: 181.8 West Coast: 181.8 Richmond: 193 Melbourne: 134 Sure, mean averages can be easily skewed with a small sample, but the only players with less than 120 games from those B&F lists outside of Melbourne are Tom Phillips, Tim Kelly, and Kane Lambert. For the MFC it was Gawn, Oliver, Harmes and Gus. Without having seen much of the other teams this year to make a comparison, our other two top six players from 2018, Jones and TMac, are likely to drop out. Salem and Petracca could feature, bringing our average down to around just 88 games! The numbers tell the tale.

Thats why I would be making Nev Jetta a long term offer with the Club when he retires to among other things mentor and take care of indigenous players welfare and attract more indigenous talent to the Club.

Last week was Hore's first game back after missing 3 weeks

This is the most unprofessional aspect of AFL media IMO. For years fans have been complaining that we cant hear the questions in weekly pressers. It is just laziness that the problem hasnt been fixed.

And he really cares

The reason they keep losing - particularly after the first month of the season - is because they are so young, not because they lack talent. They have a pick 3 from last year who hasn't even got on the park. Their list is far more talented than Melbourne and Carlton at the same stage. That's the argument against a priority pick. If the AFL wants to help them improve quickly then help them sign some free agents or mature players.

I f he wants another year, he gets another year. There are so many ordinary out of contract players that can go before him such as the Wagners, JFK, Maynard, ANB, Stretch, Keilty and Tim Smith.

You can't build fitness during the season. In fact, it's the reverse: as the season goes on, the more fatigue builds up. Thus pre-seasons. That every club does. For a reason.

Goodwin: Steven May is right to go. He was very close last week, but he’s trained strongly so it’ll be good to have him back. Goodwin: Jake Lever trained yesterday away from the main group, but we expect him to be fine. He’ll train again tomorrow + be right to go. Goodwin: Collingwood has some really elite small players who can mark above the head. We will prepare for whatever set-up they go with - tall or small. Goodwin: We’ll take the wet conditions into account at selection. We could go with Harry Petty as the main tall up forward, or we could have a mix. Goodwin: We think Angus Brayshaw has really started to round his game out well in areas other than just his offence. He’s a really important part of our side + we’re happy with how he’s tracking. Goodwin: Macca has made a great contribution to the club over five years. He is a really close mate of mine + has been an unbelievable mentor. The time was right for him to depart, but it’s sad to see a great mate leave + he’s had an enormous impact on our playing group. Goodwin: This is the time of year where you get linked to a whole range of people - players, coaches + staff. There are some great footy people out there, Alan Richardson is one of them, but that’s not something I’m looking at. Goodwin: I thought we challenged Richmond for half the game last week until the conditions changed. Skill level has been a big issue for us, but I think there are positives to take out of the first half of that game. Goodwin: The captaincy next year is the last thing I’m looking at right now. Nathan Jones + Jack Viney have done an incredible job for this football club. Goodwin: The players are looking at the next three weeks as an opportunity. The spirit of our players is high.

I know we are all supporters, members, fans whatever, and this season has been really hard, but the angst Goodwin’s media causes on DL really is unnecessary. The AFL community, whether it player, coach, club or head office carefully manage their message. It represents little of what is actually happening. Same with team selection, for example Preuss not being selected for most of the year had many on here yelling for goodwin’s sacking or worse, many pages on various threads were devoted to the subject. When Preuss was eventually selected, he showed manifestly that he is not ready. Turns out there was a reason why he was not selected. I know it feels hard to trust the club at times like these and we have been so badly let down by administrators in the past. Whether or not you’re suspect of the current mob, they will always have valid reasons to make decisions on selection of players, coaches , staff and will not disclose 90% of the machinations behind the scenes. Media can have agendas and it is a competitive space

Gees there’s some grumpy old bastards out today. Dark, wet and cold.

20 years ago is a long time. Fact The point is no less valid.. fact Thanks for contributing your usual dribble..... fact

Pretty sure it was his second game.

I am happy for them to get a priority pick, but not pick two, but end of first round is too late for them IMO, I think they should get their priority pick as pick 11, before any of the finalists get their first choice, giving them picks 1, 11 and 19

Nup, I don't think the players would take the slightest notice of what Goody says in his presser or count how many times he scratches his leg.

They will get 1 and 2 and we will not get the player we want supposedly. You can take it to the bank, it’s the melb way.

If he kicks goals, he keeps playing We need every goal we can get

If he keeps this form up he will go around

Sure we may not be able to pay him the most but he would get the chance to train in the best facilities, with the best medicos, in a team that consistently makes the finals and plays numerous blockbusters in front of big crowds.

Fair bit of leverage taken with nearly everything in this post. May will turn 28 early next year. We got Lever and Petty for essentially Lachie O'Brien and Liam Stocker. Are you also saying that had we brought in more youth last draft that we wouldn't be in the same position? Surely we spent so many years going back to the draft that the time is to focus on winning, we made the prelim last year and you suggest that youth is the way to go?? We've had an ordinary season but in no way would a few extra young kids have made it any better.

But can he 'gimme the news'?

Looks to me like he's lost a yard of pace or hard running, the Hawks have used him at half back a fair bit this year and he's kicking more end on end floaters than ever. If we want a pure outside runner we'd be better off looking at Brandon Ellis who has some flaws but as a free agent in his prime could do the job. There's plenty of other alternatives as well. Whatever we do we shouldn't involve pick 2 or go after a 31 year old.

Would be 31 before next season starts, so it would be a no from me as much as I like him as a player. That would have changed had we made a prelim again, or possibly even just finals, but we potentially need to brace for us not rocketing straight back up next year.

Early draft picks are wasted up there, as is Tony Cochrane. He ruined V8 Supercars and is doing another superb job

Has become a Monorail salesman.

He's really scraping the barrel of things to say now. "We took some positives out of the first half of last week"

I can't see the problem. So we get pick 3 instead of pick 2 (or 4 instead of 3). The history of drafting suggests there's no difference between the likelihood of pick 2 being better than pick 3 (or vice versa). The bigger picture of getting the Suns competitive is a far more compelling issue. That being said, my suggestion for the AFL is to give the Suns two picks immediately after the first Round which they can only trade. That way they should get one or two decent more mature players. They have enough kids already.

We are 17th, there better be room or Mahoney and Viney need to walk.

I love posts like this. Just sharing my appreciation for how much work you put into that. Fantastic.

I am so sick of Melbourne supporters being criticized for not turning up to games. There is nothing much more to look forward to this year. Every week another player/s out injured. No final eight to fight for. The game was on free to air TV. Leave us alone in our disappointment. How dare people like Caroline Wilson single us out. We have gone through more heartache with our club than she will ever know. I have attended games countless times with no hope of ever seeing a win, in the darkest of times. What about the Richmond supporters. Their team is vying for a top four spot at the end of the year. They are always banging on about their precious Dusty, and how good he is. Why didn't they go along on a Saturday night to see their stars play in an 'easy' win? Stingy? There is supposed to be 100,000 of them. Not so dedicated as we are, I reckon.

Robbo reckons Saints are leading the race at this point. I’m pretty desensitised to the utter shitfulness of this club. That being said. If this crap season means Hill overlooks us as a designation to instead go to [censored] St Kilda,....I will be displeased. Hill is exactly the player we are crying out for.

This is actually hilarious. Not sure what sponsor/fan engagement PwC are looking for here. Perhaps insolvency cases for failed small businesses?

You sir wins today's internet. 220 × 220

The rots starts at the very top. For better or worse, nothing will change where it counts, until the body endures more pain. Any belief that what was done at Richmond in 2016 off season to bring silverware in 2017 will apply to MFC appears fanciful at best, delusional at worst. It would be unfair not to give Goody a chance to reprise his reputation after a catastrophic season where his beligerent belief in his game plan failed. This off season, he either develops some fresh ideas on how to take advantage of 6 6 6 and how to defend, or he'll go the same way as the assistant coaches. Footy can be brutal. Having spoken to Macca at a couple of functions this year, l am of the view he was pushed, and l suspect l know by whom. He was passionate about getting the boys ready to play like men. We will never really learn the truth until he speaks to Mike Sheahan in around 3 years time.

That analysis looks compelling on the surface but I'm not sure it's as rigorous as it might be. I looked back at the 4 key games at the end of last year when Tom and Sam played key forward roles and I've highlighted the opponents not identified above: R22 vs West Coast: Opposition key defenders playing: Barrass, McGovern, Sheppard Barrass and Sheppard are the nominated opponents above but this seems to ignore the impact of the league's best aerial defender McGovern who played 85% gametime R23 vs GWS: Opposition key defenders playing: Davis, Keefe, Haynes TMac kicked 3 apparently on Lachlan Keefe. Who was Phil Davis (who later on in the analysis is rightly rated as a premier defender) playing on for 91% gametime then? Sam had 17 disposals 6 marks (including 2 contested) and kicked a goal. EF vs Geelong: Opposition key defenders playing: Blicavs, Henderson, Taylor Apparently Henderson was on Sam. Who were Blicavs (also rated later on as a premier defender) and Taylor on? They don't seem to rate a mention. Tom took 7 marks and kicked 3 goals. SF vs Hawthorn: Opposition key defenders playing: Frawley, Sicily, Mirra? Tom took 10 marks and kicked 4 apparently on Frawley. Apparently Mirra at 186cm was on Weid, what was Sicily up to? There's just too many questions there for me to take that analysis as definitive.