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I rarely post but often find the conversation interesting. I have been a supporter since the late 1950s. I saw the 1964 Grand Final as a young boy. I go to about 16 games a year (from Newcastle, NSW!) I think I understand the game quite well. But what I have seen this year (and last for that matter) are the following consistent facts: 1. Midfield gets the ball a lot but kicking delivery is very poor. 2. Mad-style handballs often to disadvantage instead of kicking. 3. Kicking accuracy in front of goal has been poor - set shots. 4. On-ball players often jogging whereas I see other teams' players running hard in similar situations. 5. Players regularly and persistently played out of position - this is a coaching decision. And inflexibility during games when problems are clear (see also point 7). 6. Chaotic bull-charge game style but not commensurate with the skill levels of the players. Would need very fast forward line and excellent kicking delivery which is not present. 7. Less-skilled players promoted in selection and persisted with when other more skillful players are left in the seconds, and, when they do get a chance in the AFL, their confidence or fitness is low. 8. High injury count - probably related to the chaotic game plan. 9. Consistently poor drafting and/or recruitment choices and poor development of top draft choices (with exceptions). Thus, I do think 2018 was an aberration and agree with Gary Lyon. MFC does not have the sophistication of player skills that the higher level teams seem to have and our seeming game strategies are incommensurate with the skills we do have. I have also never been impressed with the senior coach. He appears wooden and inflexible from where I sit.

The criticism of Lyon comes from the fact he (either voluntarily or through coercion) wandered in to the club to have a bit of a dip at selecting coaches without joining the board and doing it properly. He had the same thing in his coaching career where he dipped the toes in but never put it on the line. He has nice TV skills but is a relatively lazy caller and panellist. There's little quality to his analysis. Whilst not actively bad like many in the industry he doesn't really seek out anything of interest. No advance stats. No tactical breakdown. There's a bunch of reasons we are where we are: 1. Injuries - losing May, Lever and Jetta for half a year screwed the backline and when they come back the best 2 forwards are out. 2. Lack of fitness after going all in for last year 3. A number of traded in players - Lewis, Hibberd, Garlett starting to trail off. By the way, the alternative to bringing in mature players in the Roos years was for the rebuild to take longer and slower and less chance of working. Can't have your cake and eat it too. 4. Recruiting failures in finding outside runners and small forwards - by the way we aren't the only club in that situation 5. Game plan - the advantages we had in 2017 and 2018, maybe even 2016 as well, have been found out. I truly believe our coaches got a lot out of the group in terms of tactics in previous years. Some worked, some didn't but we weren't boring and had a plan. 6. Coaching structure - there's something up with the McCartney situation, the Rawlings back to the forwards from Casey, Rooke etc. Acting overly emotional doesn't help. We won 10 games in 2016, 12 games in 2017 and plenty of games last year. That's largely without Lever and May, with a very young Oliver, Harmes, Brayshaw, Salem and Petracca, with Jack Viney missing a lot of footy. The President seems like he's not just an empty figurehead and is dipping in to support the footy department with some leadership. We have an experienced CEO. Mahoney's been in the job a while now, if he's up for it he'll get some things done and work with Goodwin to fix some of the gaps in the list, in the coaching structure and in the fitness area. It's not easy to express all of that on a TV show so I'm hardly surprised the claim is 2018 was an aberration.

Since you love your averages, how about this: 2016 - 10 wins 2017 - 12 wins 2018 - 14 wins (plus two finals) So we average 12 H&A wins over a 3-year period, which is then followed up by a record of 5-12 after 17 rounds in 2019. 2018 is far closer to the average than 2019 so far. Further, if we include this year, our record under Goodwin (2017 onwards) is 33 wins from 64 games (51.6%). 2018 win-loss record was 16 from 25 (64%) and 2019 is 5 from 17 (29.4%). 2018 is therefore much closer to the mean than 2019. This is only including wins, not those should-have-won games like Geelong (twice) last year, Port last year, Eagles (twice) this year and Crows this year. At this point in time there is no reasonable basis to say 2018 was an aberration.

Lyon was overly emotional, which is fine as a supporter and really was just expressing our collective frustration. But I don't buy the aberration bit. You can't fluke 2 finals wins against quality opposition. You can't fluke a percentage of greater than 130% - that is a reflection of a large body of work. An aberration is a couple of wins against good side, not a whole season. I also think about it this way.. What makes more sense? That ordinary (not good) players dramatically outperform their abilities over a sustained period of time (season 2018) or very good players underperform their abilities over a sustained period. To my mind it is extremely difficult to perform at 140% of your abilities even once, let alone a whole season. But it is very easy to perform at 70%, for a whole host of reasons. The reasons? I've said it before, I'm also a subscriber of the preseason, injuries and impact on confidence theory. But I'm also open-minded to the coaching criticism. Fritsch being played out of position ALL year is just one of several examples of that. Looking forward to 2020...

So....is Garry Lyon really 'SWYL'????? ....or is 'SWYL' really Garry Lyon???? Has anyone seen them in the same room together????

Lyon is trying to get a response. Reasonable to think last year was an aberration but we won't truly know that until probably mid-2020. By which point I suspect we'll either be heavily in contention or Goodwin will be gone. It's a disgrace the position we're in. A few on this board understate it quite a bit. But it's very difficult to bounce back quickly from this position. I think Goodwin and co. have "over cooked" the pasta with some poor player management and development choices as well as trades that at the time looked good but perhaps set us back. It's all been over cooked and after taking 4 steps forward last year, we took a bullet train 4km back in 2019. 2019 now is about saving *some* face but in typical Melbourne fashion I highly doubt we'll win another game this year. A 5-win season with <80% percentage is coach killing for a team with finals aspirations. We may even see Goodwin gone by the end of the season. Lyon speaks with emotion and frustration in his heart. He is a ruthless competitor. 17th at this stage is unacceptable no matter how you spin it.

He reluctantly agreed to do a job that he had very openly said he wasn't qualified for because his dying best mate asked him to. Honestly, pull your head in. That's a horrible thing to criticize someone for.

Except Steven May recently, and he was chastised publicly for it. Personally I think it was the best evidence of a player with natural leadership skills since the Neitz days. Our onfield leadership is one of our biggest issues, and it doesn’t appear like changing anytime soon. We need to build around Lever and May in this regard, as they’re clearly the best onfield leaders at the club.

Regardless of G Lyon’s past involvements with Coaching Panels, he is on the money. This Club right now is in deep [censored], and it is going to take a huge effort to get it back on track. Who else falls this far, so quickly? WTF went on last summer? Why isn’t the list fit enough to play 4 Quarters. No excuses. Get a list ready to play 2 hours a week. Why wasn’t somebody in contact with Stephen May straight after his recruitment? Book a flight ✈️ Tell him what is required. Don’t wait for him just to roll up. That is f$&@ing unbelievable!!!! Record Memberships this year and we are served this cold turd each weekend. I honestly think Goodwin thought it would just roll on. Yes we had surgeries, but so did all clubs. We have 45 on the list... Why are the not fit??? I am glad the boots are being sunk in. We have had so much assistance and we throw it away everytime Get to work Simon. Next year starts now.

Everything will be OK, just relax. The internal review will say better assistants, better high performance staff, better injury rates and the club will inject more depth again after getting ahead of themselves. Next year will be nothing like this, frustrating - yes, but if you don't get a full preseason in these days, you can write the year off. Things can change quickly, see Cats after their trade period. If anything, we overachieved last year and people got their hopes up. We will be right up there next year, enjoy life while you can peeps.

Yes, because an afl club with the year we've produced after making a prelim would sit on their hands.. What kind of a comment is that? Are you complimenting them for it? No [censored] they'll be trying to turn the ship around. You're turning into the bearded supporter that goes to training.

We've been over this in one of the many other threads in which you post your grandiose statement about how bad things actually are. We got better every year from 2014 to 2018. Averaging out our ladder position over that time is unrealistic, unfair and hides that truth.

The loss of good depth players for not much/no return: Kent, Tyson, Vince, Bugg, Pederson The surgeries in the off season the belated start to the pre season May coming in unfit May getting suspended may and lever not playing in the backline until rd.... then we lost our two forwards in Tmac and Weids Forced game plan changes: Zone defense is limited with 6-6-6 can’t run players off back of square Not sure how much of the above is Goodwins fault. I don’t think all is lost. But bring on 2020. Go Dees

Can we not start this stuff again? Always find it incredibly unfair when Dees fans smash a great of the club for trying to do a job he openly said he wasn't qualified to do, because his dying best mate begged him to do it.

aberration = break away from norm. Average finishing position 2014-2017 = 12th 2018 finishing position = 4th 2019 finishing position = 14th-17th Completely reasonable to call 2018 an aberration. There is absolutely no evidence to suggest it wasnt.

Also if you first response on this is to bag G. Lyon rather than take in what he says you are in serious denial IMO. Let your personal hatred of him go for selecting Neeld, its a long time ago, Kernahan appointed Malthouse, it was just as big a disaaster, but i dont see Carlton fans constantly smash one of their past greats. History is littered with it.. you think they do it on purpose, you think they want to ruin the club, you think they want to make a bad decision.. Its time to move on everyone, the club is the concern now, not who says what.

When a 22 point win is our biggest of the season and our others are 5pts V Carlton and 1pt v Gold Coast which was a miracle we won it. The numbers dont lie. The club is bogged in Mediocrity, there is no leadership, we have got so much wrong it makes you appreciate last year even more that they were able to do what they did. Im sick of it, a Loss in the Prelim is a s close as we will ever get and its borderline disgraceful what they serve up. Lyon is right, we are no good. And now we will see what the club is prepared to do to get it right. Good clubs will not stand for this, but we do, we accept it as par for the course, where is the dramatic circuit breaker going to come from..just for a minute imagine this apathy continues next year.. its criminal what the club continues to spew out and any one can argue all they like, the rot set in the minute after the Prelim loss and seemingly very little was done to review it, recruiting plan was wrong, management of players injuries was horrendous, the messaging all year about excuses has been amateur and embarrassing, the coaching has been sub standard, stubborn and gone backwards. Goodwin is stubborn, he needs to relax and let others in. Or he will be out very quickly. In my 35 years of supporting the club, in some brutallly bad eras, i cant remember feeling this angry about them, The Neeld era was shameful but i felt sorry for everyone that it didn't work, this time I'm angry and losing patience with footy.

Why have we fallen so far, injuries and the worst case of goal kicking yips ever, last year was not a aberration this year is. We have out played the meth coast both times, and both times bad goal kicking cost us the game. It's 2 easy things to fix, why did the Crows fall last year and rise up so far this year, one thing injuries. Why have we fallen so far injuries. People just don't want to use injuries as an excuse but you know what it determines a season it has for years,, the team has improved as the season has gone on, but the injuries are still counting up. Am sure missing from 30 to 25 meters in front of goal is not part of Goodwins game plan, the best game plan in the world can't make up for bad goal kicking.

Adem Yze’s the bloke who interests me. He’s now had many years of experience working at Hawthorn in what is a very winning culture and works directly with Clarkson on match days. I think he was backline coach for a time during their premiership period.

Yep, definitel an aberration - that's what I think whenever I see incremental improvement year-on-year over a number of years. Sigh. Everyone wants to have the biggest feelings.

Unlike most commentators, Lyon actually watches Melbourne games and sees what we see. Garbage.

So Lyon picked a guy that nearly sent this club to fold but yet thats ok because he's "passionate" Nah [censored] that. I'll back Goodwin in to get us going again next year.

Ha!! He is pretty much the cause of it for picking Mark Neeld from the start. He is the reason Roos had to come in and clean up the mess!

Can Demonland please confirm that Joeboy's account has not been hacked? I don't ever remember him being this positive after a loss.

Gawn has become an all Australian lock. Tmac had a stellar 2018. Hannan also had a great 2018. Oliver has improved. Jetts had his best year in 2018. Hore has improved out of sight this year. Frost has had his best year this year.

Anyone who understands anything about footy can see that aside from a 15 minute Eric Hipwood purple patch we have been playing much better, controlled footy since the bye. But that's not translating into scores... or into results. Just ask Brendan Bolton how well honourable losses worked for him. On merit we should be 4-1 after the bye, but instead, without the ability to finish we are 2-3 and at risk of the wheels falling off. We are demonstrating football that could win any of the last 5 (Rich perhaps the exception) but with our poor finishing we could lose all of them. And that leaves Goodwin in a very vulnerable place

Perception is a funny thing. You use this information to mount a case how bad our season has been. But that info more accurately reflects what PJ said about linear improvement being rare in tbe AFL and cautioning dees fans not to expect it. 5 clubs in 19 years have fallen back badly after making finals. That is statically significant. We are third on tbat list and we still have 5 games to go so might even get to the tiger's 8 wins. And of course the tiger's famously won in 2017. So one of the 4 clubs (25% if you like) won a flag the following year after falling away. Interesting. I'll bet london to a brick the tiger's equivalent of demonland had the same number of card burning, nervous nellies wanting to sack that yank chick and big Bennie gale and get rid of that bombers filth hardwick. And the same number of posters calling for calm and rationality. History look rather kinder on the latter group.

Yes you're right but "aberration" does not <=> "fluke". It simply means "not normal", against the grain. Last year was a season filled with many highs but also quite a few lows that, in retrospect, reflected a game style that was far too volatile and predictable to be viable long term. Percentage is a great indicator of quality and what it reflected last year was that we won games by 30% more than our average losing margin. We also know that teams with a percentage of < 110% tend to not go very far in finals. The lowest % of the every premier in the 2000s and 2010 was 115% in 2016 by Bulldogs and in 2005 by the Swans. Basically you need a % of at least 120% to win a flag based on historical performances. Last year we were premiership caliber collectively across the season but considering the drop off this year we need to analyse where and how it's dropped off. I've had a look at every finals team dating back to 2001 and looked at their % rise or fall the following season. Here are the largest drops, season-on-season. This looks at % difference, not the total difference. Carlton 2001-2002 -43.13% 5th-16th West Coast 2007-2008 -41.04% 3rd-15th Melbourne 2018-2019 -38.66% 5th-17th Richmond 2015-2016 -35.42% 5th-13th Fremantle 2015-2016 -37.41 1st-16th So, as an example Carlton's % dropped 43.13% in 2002 (73.13%) vs their 2001 % (128.60%). Of those teams, only Richmond bounced back to play finals the following year. WC had two more years down and "won" the wooden spoon in 2010 (only because we piped them for the spoon in 2008). So historically we have seen one of the most significant drop offs this century year-on-year after a finals performance. Carlton - 3 wins in 2002 West Coast - 4 wins in 2008 Melbourne - 5 wins in 2019 Richmond - 8 wins in 2016 Fremantle - 4 wins in 2016 Richmond being the obvious outlier here, having bounced back to win a flag. We'll know in 8 months time whether we're a Richmond or a Carlton.

It's not that this year or last year was an aberration. The problem is that it's Standard Operating Procedure for the MFC. Incremental improvements followed by mind bending drop offs. Wins against solid opposition to fold against the weaker. 2 finals wins and then hardly scoring in a prelim. Finishing 4th and dropping to 16th. That's what drives most supporters including Lyon crazy. He's just got a bigger forum than this to share his disgust. And I value his opinion on football above all the happy clappers around here.

Was last year the aberration? No. I think Garry used the wrong wording here. If we plot the rise of the club since PJ & Roos took the helm then last year was a logical result not an aberration. Is this year the aberration? Who knows, it's way too early to tell. If we make finals next year then it would appear to be. I think Glen used the wrong wording here also. All I know is this year has been poor for a myriad of reasons. Injury is one but I don't buy it as the reason. Let's hope we can get back on track & we see this year as the aberration we had to have...

He loves doing that. I flick past what he and 'bub have to say these days. It's not worth your time. It's the same thing over and over and over again. They think the club is scarred when it's them who are instead.

The same sorts of comments were on the game-day thread here. Still there in fact. Makes you wonder about the levels of maturity but you can't educate these people. Anyway, I reported a couple of posts where the crass language was used so I hope the appropriate measures are now taken. I urge others to do the same. Just go back to the last few pages of the game-day thread to see the evidence. It's shameful.

Yes i know we got hit hard, so did Richmond and Meth Coke. What has worried me more than that, is the skill level of those that were not injured. Our “elite” midfield and forward line should have taken a lot of heat off the Backline, but this wasn’t even close to happening This is the bigger issue for me. I have never seen an AFL side drop it’s skill level, across the board and in one pre season like the 2019 MFC. There is far more at play than just the injury list I believe.

The stats don't tell the story. Lockhart shut Ryan and Cameron out of the game. Has been quietly going about his business as a lockdown player with excellent results. Stays in for mine.

This is probably the best indication of a players season. It is also representative of our season too. Only three players on our list have polled votes in more than two games. Gawn is on 53 having polled in 7 games; Oliver is on 38 having polled in 8 games (6 times he has polled 4 votes); and Harmes is on 18 from 4 games which includes our only perfect 10 for the season. The following players have polled in two games - McDonald (16 votes); Salem (3 votes); Hunt (4);Jones (14); Viney (8); Frost (2); Fritsch (11) and May (3). Brayshaw, Melksham and Lewis have each recorded votes in one game. I think that is broadly representative of our season. Gawn has dominated games; Oliver has been consistent but not spectacular; Harmes has had the odd cameo and the rest have been the very occasional glimpse of briliance - McDonald, Fritsch etc. The only real surprise is Salem. It has felt like his season has been much better than the three votes from two games that he has.

All of those have been reinvented and/or improved under Goodwin. That is what you posed. And yes, Gawn has risen to another level duringvthe last 3 years But I guess that doesn't suit the Goodwin-hating narrative, does it.

About as matter-of-fact as it gets. You should post more Billy Boy.

Agree on all points. But careful, you'll be called a wrist-slasher by the happy-go-luckies.

We need to be realists here.We are struggling big time and whilst Sunday's effort against last years premiers wasn't all that bad the fact is we are playing, due to necessity to many blokes that at present are VFL players. The likes of the Wagners, ANB, Lockhart, Pruess, Petty and Hunt may well become good players but are playing VFL standard footy at the moment. That's 7 players that basically are not AFL players.. Throw in Trac and to a lesser extent Brayshaw & Jones who are not playing to their potential plus our overall skill level then no wonder we are ordinary. Hopeful we can put in some decent efforts to finish off year and have TMac, Melksham, Smiths, Weid, KK and Vandenberg back next year plus some decent list changes and recruiting I am hopeful we will bounce back. Unlike some will still buy my membership.

I’ve just redirected my flight to Brisbane on Sunday to come via Melbourne on Saturday. All this negative media is a recipe for the best performance by the team this year at our favourite ground at the Dockands. That said, I’m being quite sensible and coming over with low expectations. ??

Many sides play deep into September and then front up to do it again the next year, why should the MFC be any different? You speak of the Preseason giving us a clean sheet after this year, what happens if we have some injuries over Summer? Does that make 2020 another wasted year? We have to change that way of thinking. Get more players ready to go. Fitness has dropped off, the club still to reactive

Yes, it makes it sound like they are all doing us a favour, not as a job requirement. What bothers me about the it will all rectify itself next year mob is that our players live in a real world not cotton wool. We could have injuries in the last games or over the pre season. There could be drama over the pre season with player behaviour, mental issues or dozens of other things. Every other side will review their 2019 season and adjust their game style and lists. We can not be planning for a clean slate for the opening round next year.

Roos can't comment as the players we drafted fitted his game style, big body footballers that will win around the contest. That was the case you win the contested ball you win the match. The issue we face is we win the ball at the contest but don't have the skill to keep it. The other afl teams know this they just sit back in our defensive 50m arc and wait for the easy turnover and rebound from there. Our players aren't unfit, they work so hard to win the ball get it forward then bang the ball comes straight back out, we don't get a breather. The bottom line is our players are so far behind AFL standard in the fundamental skills of the game, kicking, handballing and Marking, I have never seen an AFL side even in our worse years that miss the target by hand and foot as much as we do. We have 3 players flying for the ball with no one down both forward and backs. Last year we scored this year we just don't have that scoreboard pressure

Good points rjay. I know for a fact that the internal review is already well and truly underway. We've seen evidence of this with the coaching changes (McCartney asked to go back into a development role), but they are using these final rounds to prepare for the pre-season and on to 2020, and that goes for the playing staff, coaching staff, fitness staff etc. They aren't sitting on their hands but being as proactive as they can to ensure that next year is nothing like this year.

It's Lyons way of trying to fire a rocket under them. He's basically saying "prove me wrong" which I don't disagree with but not sure how it's going to do much at this stage of the season. Maybe 5-6 weeks ago would've been better timing.

But if we turn things around next season, he knew we would and he always backed Goody Just like he knew we'd get flogged yesterday because the players were mentally scarred from the Prelim There are few who trot out statements on here like he does, but when he gets asked a basic football question NFI

Jeez... its a been a crappy year hasn't it? I cant wait for this season to end so we can get onto the next one. I'm still firmly in the 'Its the injuries' camp but I hope to all god that Goodwin tweaks the gameplan to stop this 'Chaos' [censored]. This bomb it into the forward line at every opportunity is [censored] horrible to watch and I said this last year too when we were actually winning.

Whatever suits your agenda

What on earth are you after? For him to bag Goidwin? That would achieve nadda. Roos is damned if he does, damned if he doesn't. Imo he can do as he pleases. I'm thankful for what he and PJ did (which was a frigging lot in a short period of time) Looks like you want to stick up for Lyon and sink the boots onto Roos, which would be hugely ironic, as Dazzle mentioned.