Ox: Why I’m worried about Melbourne in 2026

Melbourne endured an off-field of significant change after a tough 2025 season.

The Demons earlier parted ways with premiership coach Simon Goodwin before star midfielders Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver, and talented half-back Judd McVee, all left the club.

New senior coach Steven King has a massive job on his hands to get the Demons up and going again but it won’t be in 2026, according to club great David Schwarz.

The 173-game, 243-goal best and fairest Dee just cannot see them improving on 2025’s seven wins and 14th-placed finish.

Schwarz was asked: Do you see them rising or falling in 2026?

“Falling. They’ve lost three good players,” the Ox told SEN WA Breakfast.

“McVee is a good player, and then you lose Oliver and Petracca. So are you going to be able to replace them? Not a chance. You’re not going to replace the two of them anyway.

“You’ve got a new coach, a new game plan, a pretty inexperienced coaching panel.

“I’m a bit worried about Melbourne. If they can hold 10th to 12th I think that’s a good result, but they may slip down to 14th, 15th or 16th maybe.”

The Demons also lost Charlie Spargo to North Melbourne in the trade period.

They did bring in Brody Mihocek from Collingwood, Changkuoth Jiath from Hawthorn, Jack Steele and Max Heath from St Kilda, while adding father-son prospect Kalani White and selecting Xavier Taylor and Latrelle Pickett in the first round of the draft.

From 11:18

2 minutes ago, Demonland said:

Ox: Why I’m worried about Melbourne in 2026

Melbourne endured an off-field of significant change after a tough 2025 season.

The Demons earlier parted ways with premiership coach Simon Goodwin before star midfielders Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver, and talented half-back Judd McVee, all left the club.

New senior coach Steven King has a massive job on his hands to get the Demons up and going again but it won’t be in 2026, according to club great David Schwarz.

The 173-game, 243-goal best and fairest Dee just cannot see them improving on 2025’s seven wins and 14th-placed finish.

Schwarz was asked: Do you see them rising or falling in 2026?

“Falling. They’ve lost three good players,” the Ox told SEN WA Breakfast.

“McVee is a good player, and then you lose Oliver and Petracca. So are you going to be able to replace them? Not a chance. You’re not going to replace the two of them anyway.

“You’ve got a new coach, a new game plan, a pretty inexperienced coaching panel.

“I’m a bit worried about Melbourne. If they can hold 10th to 12th I think that’s a good result, but they may slip down to 14th, 15th or 16th maybe.”

The Demons also lost Charlie Spargo to North Melbourne in the trade period.

They did bring in Brody Mihocek from Collingwood, Changkuoth Jiath from Hawthorn, Jack Steele and Max Heath from St Kilda, while adding father-son prospect Kalani White and selecting Xavier Taylor and Latrelle Pickett in the first round of the draft.

From 11:18

No one's mentioned Tracc and Clarry leaving on here. Any new thoughts? 🙄

13 minutes ago, Go Ds said:

No one's mentioned Tracc and Clarry leaving on here. Any new thoughts? 🙄

Thanks mate, nice laugh before bedtime.

I’m not overly worried, I think we are in a rebuild of sorts, maybe not to the level of Richmond but certainly aren’t going for a premiership.

I’m excited for the season and excited to see changes, hopefully it goes well and even if we bottom out to 14th of 15th, I’ll be happy to see that if we are actually clearly making game changes and playing exciting football.

Comparatively, we have been stagnant for 4 years with the same game style and we are still bottoming out, so really it can really only get better in my humble opinion.

Go Dees.

Who cares. No one else is “worried”; I’m certainly not.

it’s a clean out that had to happen for the greater good. Simple.

Zero expectations from me, I just want to enjoy going to the football again. Hopefully King brings that with a good brand, win or lose.

Pack of half empty pessimists - half full (or even nearly full) optimists needed.

Apply to this board.

Of course we are likely to fall. We just sacked a Premiership winning coach and cleared out our two best midfielders in the past 30 years. We have also brought in some mature talent to help hold the fort for a year or two, and added even more quality young players to go with those already playing good footy. The point was to bleed a bit now to avoid falling into a pit.

3 hours ago, Beetle said:

I just want to enjoy going to the football again.

You enjoy losing? Because according to Schwarz, that's mainly what we're going to be seeing.

This is just another great example of the long term Melbourne culture.

Ox had plenty of negative opinions over the last few years and then when real change arrives, it’s all a bit scary and suddenly doom and gloom as well.

In my opinion, this new leadership has two main focuses, set the club on a path of being professional and uncompromising again and get the fans to re-engage. Neither of those things are quantified by wins.

Sure, we lose a couple of very good players but neither were at their best in recent times and nor were they making any difference in our win/loss ratios

More catnip for the Eeyores

I am quietly confident we will finish higher than 2025. I don’t think we will surge into top 4 but with a good run with injuries and a strong preseason we will improve particularly second half of season as the best 23 settles and game style starts to gel. Yes we have lost McVee and Oliver but neither of them were the best versions of themselves in 2025. The loss of Trac and how big an impact this is on field is the unknown. The recruitment of Steele and CJ will balance out the form loss of Oliver and McVee. Whilst not a like for like Mihocek will be a major boost to our tall forward game and should have strong flow on to the development of JVR, Kentfield, Jefferson. Again injuries aside whilst we moved on some other mature age back ups and profile younger, the depth of AFL potential quality on our list is better in my view and should mean pressure for spots across all roles which is always a good thing.

Edited 11 hours ago11 hr by Lil_red_fire_engine

We are likely still bottom 6 or at best bottom 8 but I'm not worried, in fact stoked with the changes been made.

A lot to look forward to in the coming years.

The flipside of the Ox's argument is that we have underperformed with our list over the past 2 seasons and eith the talent on our list should be performing much better. While we wont cover the loss of Trac, and to a lesser extent Oliver, an extra preseason into Langford, Windsor, Lindsay, Rivers etc, and the addition of Steele should mitigate this loss and hopefully we play with a bit more freedom.

Its worth noting how Collingwood really struggled late in Buck's tenure and then started their unbelievable run with McRae which also came off the back of the Daicos boys.

Not overly worried. Its going to be short term pain so I have us finishing bottom 4.

Can see us having a mini rebuild type similar to Hawthorn.

Get 60-80 games into the likes of Langford, Lindsay, JVR, Windsor, Turner, Tholstrup, Taylor, Pickett, Howes, Culley and who knows from there!

We'll add two more first round talent next year which is perfect timing before Tassie.

I’m not worried about falling a little further down the ladder, I’m expecting it tbh and I’m okay with that.

New coach, new game plan and three good players in Oliver, Trac and Mcvee leaving.

Most likely be another clean out next year with Retirements from May, Melksham, Campbell, McAdam and Tmac

Possible make or break for Laurie, Jeffo, Kentfield, Aj, Sharp, Howes and Henderson.

Could see leaving: Fritsch and Sparrow.

JVR, Kozzy, Bowey, Windsor, Langford, Lindsey, Turner, Rivers, Culley is a very good young core.

I’m hoping Xtaylor, Onley, White, Matthews, Kentfield, AMW, Heath, Tholstrup, Jefferson, Adams, Howes, Mentha and Trelly can join that list (highlighted ones are who I think make it)

Chandler, Petty, Sparrow and CJ still have lots of footy left.

I think we go down before we go up but I don’t think it’s for very long.

Edited 10 hours ago10 hr by Demongirl35

8 hours ago, Pirlo said:

Of course we are likely to fall. We just sacked a Premiership winning coach and cleared out our two best midfielders in the past 30 years. We have also brought in some mature talent to help hold the fort for a year or two, and added even more quality young players to go with those already playing good footy. The point was to bleed a bit now to avoid falling into a pit.

Exactly right and while I am not as high as DD36 - I can see intent.

What I won’t do is live in an alternative reality where we take these ‘hits’ and don’t bleed in 2026.

These happy warriors whistling into the void are (most likely) going to get a rude shock.

Edited 10 hours ago10 hr by rpfc

I think the aim should be to finish 1 or 2 spots higher than this season whilst bedding down a new game style and blooding some youngsters. That would would be a good season in 2026. No expectation to make the finals.

We hope to see improvement but and can see us winning a couple more games than last year. We had 6 close ish losses last year. We could not get up with Tracc and Oliver in the side.

Next season is a building year and i am not to worried about a say 15 - 12 finish as long as a several of our young draftees of recent years show A Grade potential.

Next year with 2 1st rounders will be a further build before we go into 2 lost Tassie draft years.

We can then go into 2027 plus seasons with a side capable of finals.

We have a heap of players out of contract in 2026 so apart from delistings we may see a couple leave.

The 2026 season will see us find out a lot about where we sit.

7 hours ago, bing181 said:

You enjoy losing? Because according to Schwarz, that's mainly what we're going to be seeing.

Yes, I am a masochist. Hook that [censored] into my veins.

1 hour ago, Lil_red_fire_engine said:

I am quietly confident we will finish higher than 2025. I don’t think we will surge into top 4 but with a good run with injuries and a strong preseason we will improve particularly second half of season as the best 23 settles and game style starts to gel. Yes we have lost McVee and Oliver but neither of them were the best versions of themselves in 2025. The loss of Trac and how big an impact this is on field is the unknown. The recruitment of Steele and CJ will balance out the form loss of Oliver and McVee. Whilst not a like for like Mihocek will be a major boost to our tall forward game and should have strong flow on to the development of JVR, Kentfield, Jefferson. Again injuries aside whilst we moved on some other mature age back ups and profile younger, the depth of AFL potential quality on our list is better in my view and should mean pressure for spots across all roles which is always a good thing.

Pretty much reflects my thoughts

I'd add that there's just too many unknowns and variables to make an informed opinion on our ladder position next year.

One such unknown is the impact of tracc and Oliver leaving on team culture.

Schwartz is right that irs impossible to replace those two players, though I'd note both, were a fair way off their best footy, particularly claz.

But its possible the team as a whole will be be more cohesive and connected as there seems little doubt there were schisms opening between younger and older players.

Connected, cohesive teams perform better than teams with rifts, particularly in modern footy given the importance of adhering to roles, structures and systems.

And leaving the culture aspect aside, as Goody could attest every time claz and trac just banged on the boot to get territory, or missed a simple lead up inside 50 kick, a barrier to implementing a new game plan and methods is senior players reverting ti old methods under pressure.

So, it may well prove to be a net benefit losing tracc and claz.

I will be very surprised if we fall below 14th.

I won't be surprised if we make finals, in large part because I honestly believe the lions (and possibly the crows, their dismal 2026 finals series notwithstanding) are the only standout team.

You can throw a blanket over the rest down to the the obvious bottom four team - the Bombers, Tigers, Roos and Eagles.

And a big reason why is that block of 10-12 clubs all have have average lists outside the best 20-25 players. Depth is a myth.

And so luck with injury is the biggest determinant of likely finishing position, followed by fitness.

I just checked Sportsbet's odds to make finals next year. Interestingly they don't have such a market, but rather a market t8 make top 10 (because of the wild card palaver).

That market would have no money in the pool, so the odds atm reflect the assesment of their analysts (analysts set all markets then from that point punters shape the odds based on their investments)

The price for making top 10 next season is currently $3.50. Seems abour right.

By way of contrast the bombers are $7

2 hours ago, Lil_red_fire_engine said:

I am quietly confident we will finish higher than 2025. I don’t think we will surge into top 4 but with a good run with injuries and a strong preseason we will improve particularly second half of season as the best 23 settles and game style starts to gel. Yes we have lost McVee and Oliver but neither of them were the best versions of themselves in 2025. The loss of Trac and how big an impact this is on field is the unknown. The recruitment of Steele and CJ will balance out the form loss of Oliver and McVee. Whilst not a like for like Mihocek will be a major boost to our tall forward game and should have strong flow on to the development of JVR, Kentfield, Jefferson. Again injuries aside whilst we moved on some other mature age back ups and profile younger, the depth of AFL potential quality on our list is better in my view and should mean pressure for spots across all roles which is always a good thing.

I am with you, I see us improving.

2 hours ago, Lil_red_fire_engine said:

I am quietly confident we will finish higher than 2025. I don’t think we will surge into top 4 but with a good run with injuries and a strong preseason we will improve particularly second half of season as the best 23 settles and game style starts to gel. Yes we have lost McVee and Oliver but neither of them were the best versions of themselves in 2025. The loss of Trac and how big an impact this is on field is the unknown. The recruitment of Steele and CJ will balance out the form loss of Oliver and McVee. Whilst not a like for like Mihocek will be a major boost to our tall forward game and should have strong flow on to the development of JVR, Kentfield, Jefferson. Again injuries aside whilst we moved on some other mature age back ups and profile younger, the depth of AFL potential quality on our list is better in my view and should mean pressure for spots across all roles which is always a good thing.

Totally agree with this. The doom and gloom stuff doesn’t line up with the actual changes we’ve made.

We weren’t getting peak Oliver, McVee had a flat year, and Trac’s impact (or lack of it late in the season) is still a bit of an unknown moving forward. What is known is that Steele, CJ and Mihocek address specific holes we simply didn’t cover last year.

The forward structure alone should look far more functional, and with a settled best 23, continuity, and King’s game plan bedding in, there’s no reason we can’t be much stronger in the back half of the year.

I’m not expecting a top-4 surge either, but a clear improvement on 2025 is absolutely realistic. Depth looks better, balance is better, and the overall vibe feels like a reset we needed.

There are a lot of variables that have been raised and countered whether we rise or fall further, winning 7 and losing 6 by less than 10 points in ‘25. The loss of Tracc, Clarry and Fudd have been countered to a high degree CJ = Fudd, Steele/Culley/Langford = Clarry

Rivers/Windsor/Vines/Kolt = Tracc?

Mihocek and Heath immediately improve our list, XT, Trelly, Mathews, White and Onley provide upgrades to our list as well.

Tracc is the 5th highest ranked player for score involvements in the league and difficult to replace, so we need to rely on game plan to help negate his loss. Also a lot of our youngsters were a bit in awe of our two former champs with good reason, however with them no longer here, I expect that a number of players will now be given the responsibility to step up and replace them. I personally expect Dees to be a better side in ‘26, barring serious injuries winning 9-12 games. We top up again at the end of ‘26 and hit the ground running in ‘27 and beyond.

Sadly its going to be a long long season ,very much like the Neeld years .

3 minutes ago, kallangurdemon said:

Sadly its going to be a long long season

Not if it's all over by the end of August.