Time for a Change….Don’t wait another 2 years…

[leave it to deever 16,555]

12 hours ago, Moonshadow said:

You think we didn't win the flag last year because of Maynard and injuries? 

Amongst other things, we didn't win because despite having the best MFC list in 60 years, our midfield could not kick anything i50 except long bombs. And our forwards couldn't hit the ocean with a beach ball

We've gone from an attacking, fast, risk taking team to a slow, defensive, fumbling, turn-over team in 3 years

That's on Goody

What a waste of a 'dynasty'

There were no fwds eft other than Smith and Fritta.

Jvr suspended against Carlton

Bbb out injured.

Milkshake out...did his knee.

Tmac on one foot.

Surely has an impact just as much as anything else.

Also Laurie was subbed in for Gus in the pies game. Night and day.

I guess I'm saying we came very very close to two flags with this list.

 

Edited June 12 by leave it to deever

[SFebes 4,748]

Out of curiosity, can anyone remember how many disposals Hunter had at Casey before being recalled? I remember watching the game and he shocking. For some reason I thought it was quite low and the commentators said he has 2 effective disposals or kicks. Just curious as he got recalled off that performance from memory.

[demoniac 1,246]

We're supposed to be playing for sheep stations.

3 failed seasons in a row. 

Team selection/balance, positioning, decision making/execution, ball movement and intensity all areas where sharp improvement is needed.

If Goody can't get significant improvement to how we play this season then board has a decision to make. If Goody stays and we have another failed season in 25 then its the board itself that will come under scrutiny.

And after 3 terrible losses to West Coast, Freo and Pies its time for some underperforming senior players to get a spell at Casey, or in Oliver's case the extra 4 - 6 weeks of pre season loading that its clear he needed after his 2023 and off season challenges.

[Dr Don Duffy 21]

6 hours ago, Cyclops said:

Speaking of time for a change“…waiting another two years…” I wonder when we might hear from our Board about our current strategic plan.

It seems that our football team are not the only ones "dropping the ball".

After explaining that we had not in fact started to build our new home base near Gosch’s Paddock, and we had missed our membership target in the 2020-2023 plan, last year’s Annual report said  “The Club will launch our 2024 – 2027 Strategic Plan in February ahead of the commencement of the 2024 seasons.” Has anyone seen it? Or should I have read that as February 2025?

Good questions.

[Engorged Onion 9,570]

You know that frustration seeping out of your pores, that, [censored] urge to point fingers at the coaches and yell at the players, yell at each other on Demonland? It's just not good enough, the team let me down, the players are hacks and the FD department are useless... if only I could recapture '21.

Here's the thing, *geeks, which I am one* have a term for what's happening:

Regression to the mean.

Statistical inevitability.

So, here we are.

God football is emotional.

 

[bing181 8,355]

9 hours ago, Neil Crompton said:

I have thoughts but I would only be speculating.

You're only speculating in any case, so go right ahead.

[bing181 8,355]

4 hours ago, demoniac said:

If Goody can't get significant improvement to how we play this season

... then that will indicate that the list isn't good enough.

 

[bing181 8,355]

Viney struggling (age?), Oliver with no pre-season, Petracca having to play forward/now injured, Brayshaw out ... that's pretty well our entire mid-field.

Just what were people expecting?

[beelzebub 22,706]

35 minutes ago, bing181 said:

... then that will indicate that the list isn't good enough.

 

Among other things ...possibly.

Causes not necessarily mutually exclusive.

It could be list and direction ( coaching ) 

 

[BoBo 2,380]

On 10/06/2024 at 18:40, layzie said:

What's the point? Who would we get?

John Worsfold if he’s keen.

[beelzebub 22,706]

11 minutes ago, BoBo said:

John Worsfold if he’s keen.

For the moment id be happy to usurp Goodwin.... and hand to Choco in the interim.

After that... ..  some very interesting choices

[bing181 8,355]

31 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

For the moment id be happy to usurp Goodwin.... and hand to Choco in the interim.

After that... ..  some very interesting choices

"The empirical analysis shows that the shock effect of a turnover has a positive impact on team performance in the short term. Results reveal no impact of coach turnover in the long term. The favourable short-term impact on team performance of a coach turnover is followed by continued gradual worsening of results. The turnover effect is non-existent when the comparison between the new coach and the old coach is done over 10, 15 or 20 matches before and after termination."

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/236043349_Coach_Mid-Season_Replacement_and_Team_Performance_in_Professional_Soccer

[beelzebub 22,706]

21 minutes ago, bing181 said:

"The empirical analysis shows that the shock effect of a turnover has a positive impact on team performance in the short term. Results reveal no impact of coach turnover in the long term. The favourable short-term impact on team performance of a coach turnover is followed by continued gradual worsening of results. The turnover effect is non-existent when the comparison between the new coach and the old coach is done over 10, 15 or 20 matches before and after termination."

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/236043349_Coach_Mid-Season_Replacement_and_Team_Performance_in_Professional_Soccer

The nett effect of avoiding icebergs is emperically qualified as staying dry.

This is about surgery.

If you don't get it... i understand.

Edited June 12 by beelzebub

[BoBo 2,380]

29 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

For the moment id be happy to usurp Goodwin.... and hand to Choco in the interim.

After that... ..  some very interesting choices

 I would let Goodwin see out the season, employ an impartial party (which ideally includes Paul Roos, Jordan Lewis considering the set us up in the first place and Brendan Gale whilst he has a gap between Richmond and Tassy) to do a review and essentially make him, the assistant coaches and the board re-interview for their jobs to said party to justify their positions and what they can add for our future. 

Gawn is 1 bad injury away from retiring and then we are screwed. We’re the 3rd oldest list and Tassie is what, 3 years away from taking all the best draft picks?

Do we bottom out with Goodwin the year before Tassie takes up a generations worth of draft picks? 

We have next year which is our last (unless we recruit in the off season unbelievably) chance at a flag. All the while other clubs are clearly surpassing us. 

We can think ahead for a second and weigh up where we sit and act now or just continue in the hope that everything just works out with the current set up. 

Just to reiterate - (not to you specifically Beelzebub) but our forward 50 connection has been criticised since at least 2018 and it’s STILL NOT FIXED. I’ve been listening to Gary Lion talk about this for years and years and it hasn’t been addressed. 
 

As Schwartz said, that is a systemic failure of coaching.
 

 

[BoBo 2,380]

33 minutes ago, bing181 said:

"The empirical analysis shows that the shock effect of a turnover has a positive impact on team performance in the short term. Results reveal no impact of coach turnover in the long term. The favourable short-term impact on team performance of a coach turnover is followed by continued gradual worsening of results. The turnover effect is non-existent when the comparison between the new coach and the old coach is done over 10, 15 or 20 matches before and after termination."

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/236043349_Coach_Mid-Season_Replacement_and_Team_Performance_in_Professional_Soccer

Thanks for the study @bing181, I would argue that the purview of this study is only applicable if we are expecting a dramatic turn around in up to (like the conclusion states) 20 matches before or after. 
 

This is only my opinion but I’m not expecting a massive turn around in 20 matches *IF* we changed coach now (to which I don’t think is a good idea, mid season).

I would agree changing coaches now is way more destabilising  for the club than at seasons end (even if the review I put forward meant Goodwin kept coaching).

My concern is beyond this year (I mention we’re the 3rd oldest list) and I fear that option of us sticking with the current set up of the club in the scope of us bottoming out just when Tassie comes into the comp means we see ourselves in Norths position. 

[Fromgotowoewodin 1,125]

1 hour ago, bing181 said:

"The empirical analysis shows that the shock effect of a turnover has a positive impact on team performance in the short term. Results reveal no impact of coach turnover in the long term. The favourable short-term impact on team performance of a coach turnover is followed by continued gradual worsening of results. The turnover effect is non-existent when the comparison between the new coach and the old coach is done over 10, 15 or 20 matches before and after termination."

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/236043349_Coach_Mid-Season_Replacement_and_Team_Performance_in_Professional_Soccer

Average years in the job for the winning premiership coach since 2000 is 6 years. Some shorter ones, Scott and Longmire walked into flag ready teams, McRae probably got there ahead of schedule but the average is the average.. so we’d be looking at 6 years all going well (5.5 if you exclude Sheeds in 2000)

[Kent 2,673]

12 hours ago, bing181 said:

Viney struggling (age?), Oliver with no pre-season, Petracca having to play forward/now injured, Brayshaw out ... that's pretty well our entire mid-field.

Just what were people expecting?

I along with others expect them to have a go  simple start with effective tackles The game plan has begun to destro us 

in my view

[manny100 1,111]

Every year we have had a few games where we look slow, flat and uncoordinated.

This year we have player availability issues and we have a number of inexperienced players in the team.

A slump was always going to happen. With Tracc out I think we will struggle for the rest of the season. 

It was obvious from tge start of the season that we were undergoing a list/team refresh.

[Demon Dynasty 16,286]

18 hours ago, SFebes said:

Out of curiosity, can anyone remember how many disposals Hunter had at Casey before being recalled? I remember watching the game and he shocking. For some reason I thought it was quite low and the commentators said he has 2 effective disposals or kicks. Just curious as he got recalled off that performance from memory.

Rnd 8 vs the Lions.  A very ordinary game where he was caught on many occasions.

Slipped a number of those with shoulder rolls and managed to get some pressured kicks & HBs off.

14 disposals (not sure how many were effective), 4 marks, zero tackles.

Played alot better the previous week vs the Blues at IKON.

Unless they were looking to have him play mid minutes to assist the followers (unlikely) im really not sure why he was picked.  Possibly as a relief off the bench to assist young Windsor on his wing?

Another player recalled too early and without showing much at Casey (comsistently or at a high enough level) for mine with other players (occasionally) much more deserving of a call up before Hunter (Moniz).

Selection integrity woeful so far this season.

Edited June 12 by Demon Dynasty

[Ethan Tremblay 28,777]

Will someone from the club just speak to the media so I feel better!!?? 

[Dee*ceiving 1,230]

To be fair, we've had our share of coaching blunders recently. 

- Couldn't find a way to make Gawndy work, more appallingly giving up on it after ~10 games then gifting him to the Swans 

- Picking underdone players/players showing no form at VFL (Clarrie, Hunter, Petty, McAdam) 

- Not playing Langdon on the wing, going from 500m gained to ~100m gained per game

- Not playing Sparrow in the centre with time up forward (has actually taken marks and kicked goals from 50m enough to suggest he might do it again) 

- Continually playing backmen in the forward line   

- Drastically changing the gameplan post Yze

- Seeing Max get owned in the center v Sydney and again v Collingwood (no adjustments)

[Demon Dynasty 16,286]

2 hours ago, Dee*ceiving said:

To be fair, we've had our share of coaching blunders recently. 

- Couldn't find a way to make Gawndy work, more appallingly giving up on it after ~10 games then gifting him to the Swans 

- Picking underdone players/players showing no form at VFL (Clarrie, Hunter, Petty, McAdam) 

- Not playing Langdon on the wing, going from 500m gained to ~100m gained per game

- Not playing Sparrow in the centre with time up forward (has actually taken marks and kicked goals from 50m enough to suggest he might do it again) 

- Continually playing backmen in the forward line   

- Drastically changing the gameplan post Yze

- Seeing Max get owned in the center v Sydney and again v Collingwood (no adjustments)

Poor decision to trade him in in the first place.  Needed a quality mid.  Not in hindsight, didn't like the idea from the time it was rumoured.

We now need two mids, one inside bull and one outside with spread, leg speed & quality use.

Will Day a great example of what we need in that last requirement.

It's no coincidence the Hawks have gone from boiled lollies to chocolates since his return.  Not saying he's the sole reason for their return to form either but has had an effect.

They lost their first 5 matches.  Taking away their two outlier games vs Nth (W) & Sydney (L), since then they have won five out of six, only losing with the last kick of the day against Port away by one point.

Edited June 13 by Demon Dynasty

[Tim 3,000]

21 hours ago, Engorged Onion said:

Here's the thing, *geeks, which I am one* have a term for what's happening:

Regression to the mean.

So, here we are

 

Wouldn’t mind regressing to the Geelong mean, or the Swans mean, or the Hawthorn mean (and they seem to be getting set to be back to their “mean”), or Collingwood for that matter in terms of perennially putting themselves “in the window” for their fans. 

Our mean has been pretty mean to the fans since 1964.

[Engorged Onion 9,570]

1 hour ago, Tim said:

Wouldn’t mind regressing to the Geelong mean, or the Swans mean, or the Hawthorn mean (and they seem to be getting set to be back to their “mean”), or Collingwood for that matter in terms of perennially putting themselves “in the window” for their fans. 

Our mean has been pretty mean to the fans since 1964.

It's midway though the season and we are sitting 10th by % out of the 8. We haven't bottomed out, we're still in a window... but with all factors considered - it'll be tough to perform in finals if they are indeed even made.

Going by Footywire and arbitrarily choosing the last 5 years...

                          2019       2020       2021       2022       2023

Geelong =       1st            4th          3rd         1st           12th

Hawthorn =    9th           15th        14th       13th         16th

Collingwood = 4th         8th          17th       4th          1st

Sydney =         15th        16th        6th       3rd           8th

Melbourne  =   17th       9th          1st          2nd       4th

 

We have a collective memory lapse at at times of how teams other than our own have progressed, and as such, things are never linear.

Edited June 13 by Engorged Onion

[Binmans PA 26,664]

On 11/06/2024 at 22:29, Moonshadow said:

You think we didn't win the flag last year because of Maynard and injuries? 

Amongst other things, we didn't win because despite having the best MFC list in 60 years, our midfield could not kick anything i50 except long bombs. And our forwards couldn't hit the ocean with a beach ball

We've gone from an attacking, fast, risk taking team to a slow, defensive, fumbling, turn-over team in 3 years

That's on Goody

What a waste of a 'dynasty'

We kicked 7.11 to 9.6 in the qualifying final (+3 scoring shots) and 9.17 to 11.7 in the semi final (+8 scoring shots).

Our mids aren't great ball users by foot, but we had more than enough supply to win both finals. Our forwards failed to get the job done. Like KB last week, Fritta missed two gimmes he would normally nail from very gettable positions against Collingwood and that was the QF. That's not on Goody. He can't kick the goals for the players.

But I assume your mind is made up.