PRESEASON TRAINING: Friday 19th January 2024

[Roost it far 6,043]

13 hours ago, fr_ap said:

Well done. Got all the validation by telling people ignorance is bliss. 

It's not pessimistic, it's realistic.  

Yes, Oliver missed half the year last year and we managed ok in the middle. This was for a variety of reasons - Viney stepping up, Melksham allowing Trac more time in the middle to name a few. We could very well find solutions again. But unless you really don't rate Oliver or his contribution to the team, his absence is overall a net negative. That's realistic, and any opposition supporter would tell you they'd rather face us without him. You can try to wash away the problem with hopes and dreams of youth filling the gap, but he's a generational player. His output week on week is irreplaceable, individually or in the aggregate. His continued absence makes us a weaker side than last year - and we finished what, 5th?

Tmac and Brown were missing for large chunks of last year. Guess what - we didn't win the flag, and a big reason was our inability to find competitive, consistent, stable key forwards to kick goals. These two were a massive part of 21 and we miss them as individuals and a combo, and we haven't addressed the deficiency. Oppo teams know we aren't potent outside of Fritsch. So yes, them being over the hill and showing no signs (yet) of returning to their old selves is a net negative, considering they were both very good players in their prime that we have really struggled to replace. Even one of them getting back would help us immensely. 

Every player is a year older. Very astute. But an extra year is not the same for all, and you know it. Gawn and May are both probably 2/3 years off retirement, and they will decline at some point. Gawn last year had his worst year statistically for some time. With every year that passes the likelihood of their form declining increases. Net negative vs last year. Realistic. 

Frampton, Cox and Cameron aren't world beaters, but are established senior depth who have played a lot of footy and are reliable (yes, even Cox). Them being that depth was critical to the Pies flag, whether you realise it or not. Laurie, Woewodin, Turner or Howes can't be considered senior or reliable (yet), even if they do have more upside. They'll improve for sure, they might be solid, they might be great. But right now, they're not. That's realistic. 

This is the exact point on Smith. No world beater, but reliable senior depth of which we have precious little. He, like Frampton, could play in a flag side and do a job. You know it. We might like to think Turner could do the job, but we don't know yet. Realistic. 

I am optimistic (yes, really) about our chances to improve. I'm excited by Bowey, JVR, Riv, McVee growing, Trac getting his goal kicking together and putting us on his back, a youngster or 3 injecting themselves into the side. I'm excited for what McAdam can bring together with Pickett, and intrigued by the prospect of Billings rediscovering his once blistering form. I have a lot of faith in our senior players and leaders like ANB, Lever, Trac and Viney. I'm excited to see if Mcqualter has any impact on our style of play. 

But do I realistically think all these points above will be enough to both offset the inevitable negatives/declines (some of which I covered above, others will be unforeseen), our inarguably thinner senior depth, the improvement of other teams AND bridge the gap from 5th to 1st? 

On balance, no. 

Do I think if things go more wrong than right, like a Petracca long term injury for example, that we could fall from 5th to 8th? To 10th? Yeah, probably. 

Yes, most teams can't handle the loss of their superstar. Difference is we've (seemingly) actually already lost 1, whilst also being drained of senior depth. 

I could post more about all the things I'm excited about. On this occasion I chose to post about what I'm concerned about. It's not supposed to offend you and if it makes you uncomfortable, that's perhaps telling you're not quite as confident as you might think. 

It's not pessimistic - just honest discussion. Try it. 

Our game relies incredibly heavily on a 32 year old ruckman and a 32 year old FB, with no backup even close to their level, that's not ideal. If either go down for an extended period it's over before it begins. We have a coach who's very likely going to roll the same gameplan into the year ahead, that's not as bad as some think but if we don't improve at the margins we're in strife. Those hoping for a Ben Brown or T Mac revival are, in my opinion, delusional, both are cooked and unlikely to play unless injuries have hit hard. Fullarton is a "Break Glass in emergency" and the glass is toughened. McAdam and Billings are only going to be of use if they stay fit and find form, both have serious "if's" about them. Woewodin, Howes and Turner are possible improvers but unlikely to be more than bit players. I like Tom Sparrow and he's a solid player but he's no substitute for a fit, happy and ready to go Clayton Oliver. We've lost Joel Smith and in doing so have one less top 28 player on our list.....yeh not good. There's all this and then there's the swirling soup of gossip and innuendo floating around the team and club. If we are to win the flag this year we'll need everything to go right and hope the likes of Collingwood, Carlton, GWS, Adelaide, Sydney, Brisbane and whoever else gets on a roll don't improve more than us........I'd say fr-ap is being very realistic about our chances. 

[BDA 20,048]

God knows where we’ll finish. You could make an argument we’ll win the flag or you could make an argument we’ll finish outside the 8 if we’re unlucky.

it’s probably the most uncertain I’ve felt going into the season for a few years. The Oliver issue, all the noise about culture and some of our best players getting older. Not ideal. Let’s hope we can have a better run with injuries in 24. 

[demoncat 631]

14 hours ago, Roost it far said:

Our game relies incredibly heavily on a 32 year old ruckman and a 32 year old FB, with no backup even close to their level, that's not ideal. If either go down for an extended period it's over before it begins. We have a coach who's very likely going to roll the same gameplan into the year ahead, that's not as bad as some think but if we don't improve at the margins we're in strife. Those hoping for a Ben Brown or T Mac revival are, in my opinion, delusional, both are cooked and unlikely to play unless injuries have hit hard. Fullarton is a "Break Glass in emergency" and the glass is toughened. McAdam and Billings are only going to be of use if they stay fit and find form, both have serious "if's" about them. Woewodin, Howes and Turner are possible improvers but unlikely to be more than bit players. I like Tom Sparrow and he's a solid player but he's no substitute for a fit, happy and ready to go Clayton Oliver. We've lost Joel Smith and in doing so have one less top 28 player on our list.....yeh not good. There's all this and then there's the swirling soup of gossip and innuendo floating around the team and club. If we are to win the flag this year we'll need everything to go right and hope the likes of Collingwood, Carlton, GWS, Adelaide, Sydney, Brisbane and whoever else gets on a roll don't improve more than us........I'd say fr-ap is being very realistic about our chances. 

The “our game relies on X player” argument is such a furphy 

Because guess what? EVERY team in the league has a handful of players who they rely on, and who, if you took out of their game plan, they’d struggle

Where would Geelong have been in 2022 without Selwood and Hawkins? They wouldn’t have been Premiers that’s for sure and we saw the proof of that in 2023 

How many games and moments did Pendlebury and Sidebottom win for the Pies this year? Again, they’re not Premiers if those two aren’t fit and firing, and it will be a close watch to see if they can continue at that level in 2024  

Yes, if Gawn and May fall off a cliff next year it will affect us, but that isn’t unique to us and can be said about any other contending team

The real issue is - as always - injury and availability of players, which I maintain has been our biggest issue these past two years and which can effect every team

Edited January 21 by demoncat

[David-Demon 484]

On 19/01/2024 at 21:56, WalkingCivilWar said:

It’s not often BT says something intelligent but when he said, “Alex Neal-Bullen, a heart and soul player for the Dees…” he nailed it.

Thanks for posting these highlights, WW. 🙏 

Agree, but remember all the knockers here on Demonland last season who wanted him dropped?  Grrrrr

[Dee Zephyr 17,452]

5 hours ago, David-Demon said:

Agree, but remember all the knockers here on Demonland last season who wanted him dropped?  Grrrrr

Without fail every week someone had ANB listed as an ‘out - dropped’ in the changes thread D-D. 
I’m sure someone posted recently how impressive ANB was as a leader and person when guest/speaker at a cricket event from memory.

The lack of respect for him is just plain rude.

[hemingway 7,589]

12 hours ago, demoncat said:

The “our game relies on X player” argument is such a furphy 

Because guess what? EVERY team in the league has a handful of players who they rely on, and who, if you took out of their game plan, they’d struggle

Where would Geelong have been in 2022 without Selwood and Hawkins? They wouldn’t have been Premiers that’s for sure and we saw the proof of that in 2023 

How many games and moments did Pendlebury and Sidebottom win for the Pies this year? Again, they’re not Premiers if those two aren’t fit and firing, and it will be a close watch to see if they can continue at that level in 2024  

Yes, if Gawn and May fall off a cliff next year it will affect us, but that isn’t unique to us and can be said about any other contending team

The real issue is - as always - injury and availability of players, which I maintain has been our biggest issue these past two years and which can effect every team

Perfect answer

[BangBnagBang 519]

On 19/01/2024 at 22:33, titan_uranus said:

So we can't avoid pessimism during the season, we can't avoid it in the trade period, now we can't even avoid it in January?

Is nowhere safe anymore?

[I'm taking the proverbial here a bit]

Anyway, to the substance of what you're saying - in the opening paragraph you raise the issues of Oliver missing (he missed 10 games last year when we made top 4), TMac and Brown over the hill (neither was important in 2023 nor, barely, in 2022, both years in which we made the top 4), and May and Gawn are a year older (every single player in every single club just got a year older, including critically important players at other top sides - it's not like reports from training are suggesting these two are struggling). Then you say "no real depth or youth to excite" which is subjective and is really just a reflection of your own pessimism (the OP in this post talks about the excitement of Turner, Howes and Adams, there's been plenty of excitement around Laurie and Woewodin too).

As for supposedly "meh" depth, Collingwood won a flag this year with side featuring Frampton, Cox and Cameron. A-graders aren't required on every line.

Melksham's injury is a problem for us IMO but it's borderline hypocritical to say "well Laurie and Woey aren't much chop" and then say "we're going to struggle because we don't have Smith".

If it weren't for the Oliver/Smith issues I wouldn't look at us and think we're any more likely to slip any more than Collingwood or Brisbane. I think each of us responds to those issues differently or to different extents and largely I think those who are getting really down about our 2024 prospects are those who can't help but interpolate that the Oliver/Smith stuff means broader issues that, quite possibly, just aren't there (and yes, the opposite is also true).

The last bit of "don't come for my throat" - why not? You want to lead with your pessimistic chin, be prepared to cop it. Similarly, if you see someone out there going "we're a lock for top 4/the flag", I'm sure you'll be ready to clip them back.

SNAP👏👏👏

[HBDee 343]

So did the boys train on Friday or not? 

[Roost it far 6,043]

14 hours ago, demoncat said:

The “our game relies on X player” argument is such a furphy 

Because guess what? EVERY team in the league has a handful of players who they rely on, and who, if you took out of their game plan, they’d struggle

Where would Geelong have been in 2022 without Selwood and Hawkins? They wouldn’t have been Premiers that’s for sure and we saw the proof of that in 2023 

How many games and moments did Pendlebury and Sidebottom win for the Pies this year? Again, they’re not Premiers if those two aren’t fit and firing, and it will be a close watch to see if they can continue at that level in 2024  

Yes, if Gawn and May fall off a cliff next year it will affect us, but that isn’t unique to us and can be said about any other contending team

The real issue is - as always - injury and availability of players, which I maintain has been our biggest issue these past two years and which can effect every team

I’m not worried about other teams only ours. Last year we showed we can replace Oliver who’s in our top few players. My concern is more around Gawn’s age, injury profile and how much we rely on him, we don’t go near top 4 without Gawn, same goes for May. It’s not hard to argue he’s the best FB playing today and he drives so much of our attack. He’s also 32, has had a couple of calf strains,  so yes their ability to play a 26 week season concerns me. 
I’m not sure you can say in your starting sentence that the  injury to certain player argument is a furphy and then argue all teams would struggle without their best player/s and that the biggest issue we have is player availability. I agree and I’m simply highlighting 2 we rely very heavily on with no immediate backups. 

[Cranky Franky 1,486]

10 hours ago, David-Demon said:

Agree, but remember all the knockers here on Demonland last season who wanted him dropped?  Grrrrr

You have a short memory. He was terrible in the first 7 or so games & should have been dropped, same in 2022. He got nicely looked after by the selectors.

Luckily he came good in the second half of the year & was a solid contributor.

 

[demoncat 631]

27 minutes ago, Roost it far said:

I’m not worried about other teams only ours. Last year we showed we can replace Oliver who’s in our top few players. My concern is more around Gawn’s age, injury profile and how much we rely on him, we don’t go near top 4 without Gawn, same goes for May. It’s not hard to argue he’s the best FB playing today and he drives so much of our attack. He’s also 32, has had a couple of calf strains,  so yes their ability to play a 26 week season concerns me. 
I’m not sure you can say in your starting sentence that the  injury to certain player argument is a furphy and then argue all teams would struggle without their best player/s and that the biggest issue we have is player availability. I agree and I’m simply highlighting 2 we rely very heavily on with no immediate backups. 

The way you posited your argument was that we’re uniquely reliant on certain players and that we’re at risk of struggling if those players slow down with age 

My point is that’s not unique to us at all and can be said about 17 other teams - particularly contending teams, most of whom rely on veterans 

So if you agree that’s the case, why bring it up if not to be unreasonably negative about that aspect of the club? It’s a null and void point until if and when those players can’t perform or retire

You’re entitled to your perspective, but like a lot of others on this forum you seem to be taking the most negative view you can and then want to back track or find a technicality when someone calls you out on it 

And don’t try and claim you’re not being negative when you wrote a whole essay pointing out every supposed issue facing our club this season 

Are we a perfect team? No. Do we need to improve in certain areas to win? Yes. But I choose to look at the much longer list of positives from our club over the last few years and not overreact to a handful of issues and overblown media noise 

Edited January 22 by demoncat

[Roost it far 6,043]

2 hours ago, demoncat said:

The way you posited your argument was that we’re uniquely reliant on certain players and that we’re at risk of struggling if those players slow down with age 

My point is that’s not unique to us at all and can be said about 17 other teams - particularly contending teams, most of whom rely on veterans 

So if you agree that’s the case, why bring it up if not to be unreasonably negative about that aspect of the club? It’s a null and void point until if and when those players can’t perform or retire

You’re entitled to your perspective, but like a lot of others on this forum you seem to be taking the most negative view you can and then want to back track or find a technicality when someone calls you out on it 

And don’t try and claim you’re not being negative when you wrote a whole essay pointing out every supposed issue facing our club this season 

Are we a perfect team? No. Do we need to improve in certain areas to win? Yes. But I choose to look at the much longer list of positives from our club over the last few years and not overreact to a handful of issues and overblown media noise 

I’m not back tracking in anyway. I believe we’re every chance to struggle this season for the reasons I posted. I don’t care about other teams except for the fact I think several will improve and possibly overtake us. Pointing out our problems isn’t being negative it’s just pointing out potential and existing issues that I see. There’s enough “we’re unbeatable” voices around here to cover for that surely?

[David-Demon 484]

14 hours ago, Cranky Franky said:

You have a short memory. He was terrible in the first 7 or so games & should have been dropped, same in 2022. He got nicely looked after by the selectors.

Luckily he came good in the second half of the year & was a solid contributor.

 

I have a great memory in fact. Those who wanted him dumped then there were those of us who had faith in his incredible team spirit.

[waynewussell 4,090]

18 hours ago, Cranky Franky said:

You have a short memory. He was terrible in the first 7 or so games & should have been dropped, same in 2022. He got nicely looked after by the selectors.

Luckily he came good in the second half of the year & was a solid contributor.

 

I'm just wondering what an effective ANB game looks like. In the first 7 rounds of 2023, ANB averaged 15 possessions and kicked a goal in every one of those games. In the first 6 rounds of 2022 (he missed R7), ANB averaged 18 possessions.

[David-Demon 484]

19 hours ago, Cranky Franky said:

You have a short memory. He was terrible in the first 7 or so games & should have been dropped, same in 2022. He got nicely looked after by the selectors.

Luckily he came good in the second half of the year & was a solid contributor.

 

ANB is in my best 22 and always has been. He is a TEAM player at heart. (and no I don't have a short memory when it comes to quality that ANB provides the Team. I rank him just behind Viney.)

 

[BangBnagBang 519]

20 hours ago, Roost it far said:

I’m not worried about other teams only ours. Last year we showed we can replace Oliver who’s in our top few players. My concern is more around Gawn’s age, injury profile and how much we rely on him, we don’t go near top 4 without Gawn, same goes for May. It’s not hard to argue he’s the best FB playing today and he drives so much of our attack. He’s also 32, has had a couple of calf strains,  so yes their ability to play a 26 week season concerns me. 
I’m not sure you can say in your starting sentence that the  injury to certain player argument is a furphy and then argue all teams would struggle without their best player/s and that the biggest issue we have is player availability. I agree and I’m simply highlighting 2 we rely very heavily on with no immediate backups. 

What Injury profile???

Since his break out game/season he has missed one chunk of 10 games in 2017 and the remaining season has played near on full seasons for the last 8 years.

[Tolstoys Nudge 1,238]

On 19/01/2024 at 13:49, george_on_the_outer said:

Thought it best to start a separate training thread:

Training at Casey...what could be more of a simulation of winter football conditions....wet, raining, windy....yep it's the middle of summer, but no sunscreen required.  Even @picket fence's slippery mates would have taken the day off and retreated to more habitable locations.

Advertised as a match simulation session, it was hard to draw any conclusions or real observations.  This was because of the absence of numerous player for whatever reason, or players who were on some sort of restricted programme, or just plain injured.  As a consequence, there were numerous Casey listed players filling in, but obviously getting plenty of good experience themselves.

On the sidelines, we know about Melksham, and of course no Oliver or Joel Smith.  Salem, Billings & Sparrow were just running laps, with Sparrow looking to be the one doing it at full stretch.  No sight of Hunter, BBB, McAdam & AMW, while Jefferson walked on and off the field to physio areas. Every year it is a concern when players aren't on the track post Christmas break, and you can utterly guarantee for every week they are not there, you can take a week off the season for them. 11 missing out of a list of 44 isn't good!

There was all the usual warm-up's and drills but the match simulation was the most important.  But, as said before, what can one take from it with so many sidelined?

What could be taken away were things like:

TMac playing permanently in the backline.  For those that have been around from when he played their last, be prepared for much of the same.  Indecisive about where the ball is going, strong marking, but watch out for the kicking. One wonders how he will find a hole to fill with May, Lever, Tomlinson, Turner, Rivers, Bowey, Salem, Adams, Hore & Howe all vying for the back 6 positions.

Blake Howes and Disco Turner are going to be putting up their hands fairly soon for a role in the senior defensive structure, and both stood out on multiple times during the sim.  But don't discount Adams, who probably is 3rd in line, but having built up considerably in the off-season is showing some real promise with genuine football skills.

Interestingly, Judd McVee was playing further up the ground, and found himself taking shots at goal at one point, so maybe the coaches have something more planned for him.

Petty was back for the drills, but didn't compete in the sim, likewise Brayshaw, and to a certain extent Gawn, who came back for only a short spell in the sim.  Probably to give the backups some time for assessment.  In this respect Verrall is streets ahead of Fullarton, and I suspect Fullarton will only find a role as a forward....although we need plenty of those options given the situation at the end of last season. 

JVR almost took mark of the year reminiscent of the one Michael Roach held on to many, many years ago, but unfortunately he spilled it in the end, but he truly was sitting on top of the pack to attempt to take the ball at waist height.  If he connects something similar in the season, he will be taking home the MOTY easily.

Pickett spent the whole session in the middle, and like most years, nobody can lay a hand on him.  He just dances through traffic when he has no right to do so.  And with questions over Oliver, both he and Laurie can expect more opportunity in the engine room. 

ANB gave a clinic on how to kick to the opposition when under no pressure.  So no change there.  Rivers was magnificent to watch as he streamed from HB and delivers accurately. Chandler was very involved and seemed to be on the end of numerous chains.  But he was also active in contested situations, so maybe a mid-field rotation role might be on the cards in season proper. Woewodin showed glimpses of what may be possible, but with these types of simulations and with tackling and pressure not at the levels of AFL games, it is difficult to judge.  Still he looks more and more like his old man, and is obviously benefitting from the training programmes.

I know people will ask about the new draftees, but sorry, not much to report.  They after all are just starting out and some of the Casey players show more, simply because they are stronger, fitter and accustomed to the speed of the action.  Just give them time.  And don't expect to see them playing any time soon, unless we hit a huge injury problem.

That's all from me but wait for @Six6Six and his photo's to appear, as he was busy with the telphoto lens and should have some great shots of the action

 

Cheers George, I can’t wait to Feb and get back to seeing the boys train in a location I can viably get to!

 

I actually am not worried about fitness or health — Petts is coming along and so really only McAdam, Clarry, Salem, Billings likely best 22 at present & unless BBB somehow overcomes his knee issue, and their guys are all short-term outs bar Clarry!

I’d heard Laurie, Viney & Chin were the standouts with Rivers being the standout all pre-season thus far so good to hear vindication - somewhat - of those assessments. Our midfield without Clarry LY statistically was far better, so whilst I’d love him to be firing, I am not sure we should be too worried about him not being there until the halfway mark, ergo time to be fit for finals as that’s what really matters, let’s hope it is much sooner though!

 

TMac as a backup defender is fine, he’ll get games when Lever, May are out or need a rest or when we need versatility and are light on either-end. But it does mean if one goes down we have some experience, and like other defenders whom are poor by foot the plan will be to hand-off go long or hit wide-open targets!

I'm so sick of this Nibbler can’t kick nonsense, go look at our statistics for kicking LY anyone, and come back to me with an apology, (yeah right) — It was wet as hell & we have FAR bigger worries than ANB’s kicking blv you me!!!

Billings I really look fwd to seeing in Feb, could really be a missing link i50 both himself finishing or hitting a mark — McAdam has really impressed thus far & his only query is health continuity or consistency. 
 

Great to hear Adams Disco & Howes are looking to push, but I’m a little sad Rovers isn’t playing with the mids, but Pickett being there more is exciting as is JVR, he’s gonna be a SERIOUS fwd this year and beyond the demon peeps and media have absolutely NO IDEA how good this kid can be..

 

Laurie is another who excites me, lateral movement is strong, as his his kicking in tight situations, he will be a R1 Starter for sure.

 

Spaz should be fine glad he was running full pace, he’s another who will cont to build and be a sleeper mid bull again.
 

Verall is one for me that could be a leapfrogger this year, raw sure but wild and bouncy with a bit of mongrel, I like him a lot!  

 

[Tolstoys Nudge 1,238]

On 22/01/2024 at 16:32, Roost it far said:

I’m not back tracking in anyway. I believe we’re every chance to struggle this season for the reasons I posted. I don’t care about other teams except for the fact I think several will improve and possibly overtake us. Pointing out our problems isn’t being negative it’s just pointing out potential and existing issues that I see. There’s enough “we’re unbeatable” voices around here to cover for that surely?

Each other own and fair enough. But I look at it as though we played as good a footy in September than anyone and have more avenues of improvement in list and additions than most, kick straight and we’re likely premiers, so I can’t see how that puts us in the ‘struggling’ category but I appreciate your opinion 💯 and can see somewhat how you get there, but I think this group is elite, hungry & ready to atone but at same time bad luck hurt us & being near top doesn’t come easy and we’ve squandered 2yrs of being best side in the comp so who knows, it’s absolutely possible we have a poor year but even if we do, I think we have a core to spring back fast if health hurts us. But make no mistake, 2023 we left a Premiership Cup on the table in every sense, it’s never not going to hurt!

[Tolstoys Nudge 1,238]

21 hours ago, BangBnagBang said:

What Injury profile???

Since his break out game/season he has missed one chunk of 10 games in 2017 and the remaining season has played near on full seasons for the last 8 years.

AND has every chance of being there for 2-4yrs yet given how fit he is.

[Grr-owl 1,075]

On 22/01/2024 at 03:26, David-Demon said:

Agree, but remember all the knockers here on Demonland last season who wanted him dropped?  Grrrrr

_owl.

[Willmoy1947 3,772]

On 22/01/2024 at 02:26, David-Demon said:

Agree, but remember all the knockers here on Demonland last season who wanted him dropped?  Grrrrr

Personally i don't think there were that many who wanted him in particular dropped. I think it was more frustration at what was happening generally over the ground. There were quite a few times the team had games won and something happened, we lost...

[David-Demon 484]

2 hours ago, Willmoy1947 said:

Personally i don't think there were that many who wanted him in particular dropped. I think it was more frustration at what was happening generally over the ground. There were quite a few times the team had games won and something happened, we lost...

Oh no! I could fill a page with the "likes" of people who wanted him dumped from the 22.

[Mach5 4,482]

On 20/01/2024 at 13:10, Nicko said:

Geez he has some skill below the knees and his balance is just as impressive 

Short highlights package. The lowlights would run a lot longer...

Tries his guts out which is great, but we could do with an upgrade.
In relation to him finding the ball at critical moments, I wouldn’t discount this being by the design of the opposition, in full knowledge of the likely outcome.

[Kent 2,581]

9 hours ago, David-Demon said:

Oh no! I could fill a page with the "likes" of people who wanted him dumped from the 22.

Off you go then names  let's look at facts

Criticism is healthy warranted or not