POSTGAME: Rd 21 vs North Melbourne

[old55 21,458]

58 minutes ago, JimmyGadson said:

Good to be winning but we are so patchy and pick and choose which quarters to switch on.

Which isn't a great sign. Especially coming up against a red hot Carlton who are missing a host of players but are on fire.

We seem to be limping over the line with bursts of good play but too much bad play throughout games.

I still think we'll lose 2 of the next 3. 

And can't understand why people think the Sydney game will be easy. Or that even the Hawthorn game is a gimme.

The old rose-coloured glasses are on a few too many!

It'll soon be "we'll lose 2 of the last one" Jimmy. Try walking on the sunny side of the street again, it suits you.

[old55 21,458]

14 hours ago, Ouch! said:

My 18 year old daughter was happy that happened too. 😁

... although secretly I think she would have preferred Viney grabbed Rivers and Sparrow to join him!!

My wife concurs.

[titan_uranus 22,685]

1 hour ago, JimmyGadson said:

Good to be winning but we are so patchy and pick and choose which quarters to switch on.

Which isn't a great sign. Especially coming up against a red hot Carlton who are missing a host of players but are on fire.

We seem to be limping over the line with bursts of good play but too much bad play throughout games.

I still think we'll lose 2 of the next 3. 

And can't understand why people think the Sydney game will be easy. Or that even the Hawthorn game is a gimme.

The old rose-coloured glasses are on a few too many!

I think we have as tough a run home from here as any other side. Carlton and Sydney are two of the form teams of the competition right now. 

But I think "limping over the line" is a bit melodramatic, given that, in the last month:

• We rested our stars in the fourth quarter yesterday and appeared to ease up, with a six-day break coming
• We blew Richmond off the park in the fourth quarter last week
• We came from 5 goals down in the fourth quarter to beat Brisbane

We were patchy yesterday for sure, but the previous three weeks were pretty solid hit outs and whilst we had issues in all three, I don't require us to be flawless to consider we have a chance to do serious damage in September. There isn't a flawless team out there right now.

[Katrina Dee Fan 2,483]

14 hours ago, Ouch! said:

My 18 year old daughter was happy that happened too. 😁

... although secretly I think she would have preferred Viney grabbed Rivers and Sparrow to join him!!

I was the first one Viney high fived :)

[Binmans PA 26,337]

Take the win and move on. 

The most frustrating part was obviously the Petty injury.

Although the first quarter wasn't good enough, I expected a response from North under Clarkson in that first quarter, so I wasn't pulling my hair out at quarter time.

And by half time, we'd wrestled back the momentum and from there you could tell we would control the game.

Kozzy was outstanding. What a game.

ANB, another, made a couple of characteristic errors, but gee, he holds our game together. I've really come to love him.

One other point that seemed obvious to me yesterday was that quite a few of our younger players seemed very either fatigued or uncertain/unsure, and made uncharacteristic errors or failed to win or halve contests they would normally manage. Namely McVee, Bowey, Rivers and even Sparrow. The latter may have just been getting up to speed again post injury.

I think we need to set the back 7-8 now and leave it, because chopping and changing between Smith and Tomlinson is not ideal and creates uncertainty and diminishes cohesion that we've built back there. I can only assume Smith's inclusion over Tomlinson was a load management thing for Smith, and wanting to give him a full game, rather than him making it up on the training track.

It's also possible we had an eye to the Carlton game next week, which will be a much tougher test. We will also be going into that game knowing whether Geelong has beaten Collingwood too, which will mean victory over Carlton leaves us a game behind Collingwood with two games to play and they'd still have Brisbane in Round 23 and a packed MCG with Essendon pushing for finals in Round 24.

Fascinating few weeks coming up. Again, very glad to get the win.

Edited August 7, 2023 by A F

[binman 38,934]

3 hours ago, old55 said:

It'll soon be "we'll lose 2 of the last one" Jimmy. Try walking on the sunny side of the street again, it suits you.

We'll beat the blues - and jimmy will be all like:

'Typical comments from the blue and red colored glasses, happy clapper brigade. I mean get real. Of course we beat the blues - they had their two best mids and a key interceptor out.

And yes Melbourne won by 5 goals, but with their outs and the injury to Cripps in the last 30 seconds of the game, a real contender would have thrashed them by 10 goals. 

I mean the signs are clear, Melbourne pick and choose and again only played a quarter of good football - that's not going to cut it against the Pi...., i mean Po.., i mean the Li..., i mean the Dogs, who unlike Melbourne are timing their run to perfection.

Yes, yes, I know Melbourne have now won six games on end, but I simply can't get my head around why people are so confident Melbourne will beat the Hawks and the Swans.

And please, I'm not being disingenuous, negative for being negative sakes, contrarian or trying to wind anyone up. Unlike most posters, I'm simply being objective, clear eyed and realistic.

As I have predicted for weeks, I am confident Melbourne will lose three, sorry i mean two, of their final games. Nothing I have seen in the past few weeks has given me any reason to adjust that assessment. 

The Hawks showed the level they can play at with their win against the Pies. Who by the by just had an off day - all teams have them. 

The Pies are a great team as evidenced by their incredible record going back to their one point loss in the 2018 GF, three really clever rebuilding years at the bottom of the ladder under Buckley, then their narrow losses in finals last season to the Premiers and the rampaging Swans. And the Pies have an inspiring coach who actually knows how to motivate.

Any team that can beat the Pies, even on an off day, is a huge chance to beat Melbourne. 

And don't start me on the bookies odds -  yes Melbourne are clear favorites to win the flag now but that's just a reflection of the ladder, not form. 

And on the ladder, the ladder doesn't lie.

Well, except when it does - often it papers over cracks or simply flatters.

Whilst Melbourne are second with only two rounds to go in the season, only the most blindly optimistic posters will take solace in that. And besides they won't be second after the hawks and swans beat them. And then the ladder won't lie.

And speaking of coaches, Mitchell will run rings around Goodwin tactically. 

And the Swans - well, i know they lost the grand final last year by 15 goals - all teams have an off day - and may not even make finals this year, but they are an incredible team in incredible form (so much better than Melbournes'), are playing at their fortress and will be desperate to win.

And as the coaching Svengali Mcrae says, the game is still played mostly above the shoulders. The Swan's sheer will to win will bridge the huge gulf in ladder position (which doesn't reflect form), talent and system.

And yes, Melbourne will be playing for a home final at the G in front of 90k people, but Melbourne simply won't have the same will to win, because a top 4 spot is sewn up. And Goodwin.

And Longmire will run rings around Goodwin tactically.

And Melbourne will still be reeling from their loss to the Hawks.

I mean, seriously, how does a serious contender recover from being touched up by the 16th placed team late in the season when history shows you need to be playing your very best football to be a genuine threat?

And before any happy clapper, Pie haters jump on me (you know who you are), yes i know the hawks smashed them. But as the genius Mcrae said, they got important feedback from that loss, new feedback to add to the important feedback they got from being touched up by the Blues the previous week.

And feedback from those losses is so much more valuable than Goodwin's 'learnings' from Melbourne's uninspiring wins over the Saints, Lions, Crows, Tigers, North and Blues - or even their 'learnings' from Melbourne's win over the Pies on KB (when  the Pies had an off day - all teams have them).'

Edited August 7, 2023 by binman

[Binmans PA 26,337]

18 hours ago, Hawny for Gawny said:

JJ was decent today and you have to give him credit, I think many people just think like I do where I don't think he is best 22 at the end of the day and people project that onto him no matter what happens, similar to the hate Hunter often gets.

JJ cannot play any other available position, other than midfield (wing is not available anymore). That's why I think Harmes will be ahead of him next week if Clarry comes back. JJ struggles at half forward. We saw it against Adelaide's half backs, he's too slow and doesn't read the play quickly enough.

I like JJ, but he's midfield depth for when we have injuries like Clarry's.

18 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

ANB was sensational 

As was Hunter actually. He's been a great recruit IMO, despite what some say.

[Binmans PA 26,337]

18 hours ago, Engorged Onion said:

It's pretty nice to be a supporter of a team who genuinely feels that even if we are 5 goals down, I have an expectation that we can certainly kick 10-14 in a row.

Never had that for the last 30 odd years of my football supporting life.

Spot on mate. Precisely my feeling yesterday.

[chook fowler 18,362]

41 minutes ago, binman said:

We'll beat the blues - and jimmy will be all like:

'Typical comments from the blue and red colored glasses, happy clapper brigade. I mean get real. Of course we beat the blues - they had their two best mids and a key interceptor out.

And yes Melbourne won by 5 goals, but with their outs and the injury to Cripps in the last 30 seconds of the game, a real contender would have thrashed them by 10 goals. 

I mean the signs are clear, Melbourne pick and choose and again only played a quarter of good football - that's not going to cut it against the Pi...., i mean Po.., i mean the Li..., i mean the Dogs, who unlike Melbourne are timing their run to perfection.

Yes, yes, I know Melbourne have now won six games on end, but I simply can't get my head around why people are so confident Melbourne will beat the Hawks and the Swans.

And please, I'm not being disingenuous, negative for being negative sakes, contrarian or trying to wind anyone up. Unlike most posters, I'm simply being objective, clear eyed and realistic.

As I have predicted for weeks, I am confident Melbourne will lose three, sorry i mean two, of their final games. Nothing I have seen in the past few weeks has given me any reason to adjust that assessment. 

The Hawks showed the level they can play at with their win against the Pies. Who by the by just had an off day - all teams have them. 

The Pies are a great team as evidenced by their incredible record going back to their one point loss in the 2018 GF, three really clever rebuilding years at the bottom of the ladder under Buckley, then their narrow losses in finals last season to the Premiers and the rampaging Swans. And the Pies have an inspiring coach who actually knows how to motivate.

Any team that can beat the Pies, even on an off day, is a huge chance to beat Melbourne. 

And don't start me on the bookies odds -  yes Melbourne are clear favorites to win the flag now but that's just a reflection of the ladder, not form. 

And on the ladder, the ladder doesn't lie.

Well, except when it does - often it papers over cracks or simply flatters.

Whilst Melbourne are second with only two rounds to go in the season, only the most blindly optimistic posters will take solace in that. And besides they won't be second after the hawks and swans beat them. And then the ladder won't lie.

And speaking of coaches, Mitchell will run rings around Goodwin tactically. 

And the Swans - well, i know they lost the grand final last year by 15 goals - all teams have an off day - and may not even make finals this year, but they are an incredible team in incredible form (so much better than Melbournes'), are playing at their fortress and will be desperate to win.

And as the coaching Svengali Mcrae says, the game is still played mostly above the shoulders. The Swan's sheer will to win will bridge the huge gulf in ladder position (which doesn't reflect form), talent and system.

And yes, Melbourne will be playing for a home final at the G in front of 90k people, but Melbourne simply won't have the same will to win, because a top 4 spot is sewn up. And Goodwin.

And Longmire will run rings around Goodwin tactically.

And Melbourne will still be reeling from their loss to the Hawks.

I mean, seriously, how does a serious contender recover from being touched up by the 16th placed team late in the season when history shows you need to be playing your very best football to be a genuine threat?

And before any happy clapper, Pie haters jump on me (you know who you are), yes i know the hawks smashed them. But as the genius Mcrae said, they got important feedback from that loss, new feedback to add to the important feedback they got from being touched up by the Blues the previous week.

And feedback from those losses is so much more valuable than Goodwin's 'learnings' from Melbourne's uninspiring wins over the Saints, Lions, Crows, Tigers, North and Blues - or even their 'learnings' from Melbourne's win over the Pies on KB (when  the Pies had an off day - all teams have them).'

Stop Sicily has to be the priority against the Hawks. McRae coached poorly against them. I doubt Goodwin will make the same mistake.

[Binmans PA 26,337]

3 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

So Pies don’t pick and choose which quarter to be switched on? Did they forget to turn the light on the last fortnight? 

Did you watch the first half of the Carlton game yesterday? Hardly on fire. Saints were all over them and I rate the Saints on par with Freo and Hawks right now, but with a better tactical coach. 

Carlton do have a host of injuries that they’re covering really well and credit to them. This will be a hard game. So will the Hawks game, so will the Swans game. Every game is hard now.

We are in better form than just about every contender. Carlton are also in very strong form, but they have beaten sides who are not elite in the contest. This game will come down to the contest and the midfield and I back us to be better in there for longer. Clarry back will help enormously. Viney and Trac played limited minutes in the guts yesterday so should be fresh. Carlton had to fight much harder to win yesterday than we did. We basically switched on for 2 quarters then took Gawny, Jack and Trac off in the last and just held off from any scoring eventuating. 
Very smart way to “rest” players. 

Petty out is a massive blow especially without Fritta. But if Clarry is back then Trac can spend more time forward. Kosi back in hot form also would scare Carlton. He has a track record of breaking their hearts after all. 

No, the Pies are beautiful, mate. They play with great arousal, they get the crowd going and lose by 7 goals to 4th bottom.

Get your red and blues glasses off FFS!

[Dee Zephyr 17,876]

You would be a little mad to think you will dominate an opponent for 4 quarters these days. The last month of football has shown us this is almost impossible. 

This time last year we were doing the early running and teams were coming over the top of us for one reason or another. Goody has been banging on all year we are aiming to play our best footy at the back end of the year. If anything, the self belief must be growing immensely down there with some of our wins lately.

Edited August 7, 2023 by Dee Zephyr

[Binmans PA 26,337]

2 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

I think we have as tough a run home from here as any other side. Carlton and Sydney are two of the form teams of the competition right now. 

But I think "limping over the line" is a bit melodramatic, given that, in the last month:

• We rested our stars in the fourth quarter yesterday and appeared to ease up, with a six-day break coming
• We blew Richmond off the park in the fourth quarter last week
• We came from 5 goals down in the fourth quarter to beat Brisbane

We were patchy yesterday for sure, but the previous three weeks were pretty solid hit outs and whilst we had issues in all three, I don't require us to be flawless to consider we have a chance to do serious damage in September. There isn't a flawless team out there right now.

We weren't flawless in 2021 either. For example, we needed Fritta to kick 6 to get over the line against North in Tassie with almost the exact same score (103 to 73 that year).

In the corresponding Round 21 game in 2021, we fell over the line against West Coast in Perth by 9 points.

At this time of year, you just need to get the job done. Preferably without injuries, which was the biggest negative yesterday. You only have to look at Collingwood and Port stumbling.

[david_neitz_is_my_dad 3,937]

 

 

[YearOfTheDees 3,106]

1 hour ago, binman said:

And don't start me on the bookies odds -  yes Melbourne are clear favorites to win the flag now but that's just a reflection of the ladder, not form. 

Betting odd have nothing to do with form, If some one had placed $50,000 on North they would have started fav. Odds are based on the outcome for the betting company. Thats why they alway win. 

[old55 21,458]

17 minutes ago, YearOfTheDees said:

Betting odd have nothing to do with form, If some one had placed $50,000 on North they would have started fav. Odds are based on the outcome for the betting company. Thats why they alway win. 

"Nothing" is ridiculous hyperbole.  Yes odds will be adjusted when punters place bets, who usually do so based on form anyway.

[Hopeful Demon 1,275]

4 hours ago, JimmyGadson said:

Good to be winning but we are so patchy and pick and choose which quarters to switch on.

Which isn't a great sign. Especially coming up against a red hot Carlton who are missing a host of players but are on fire.

We seem to be limping over the line with bursts of good play but too much bad play throughout games.

I still think we'll lose 2 of the next 3. 

And can't understand why people think the Sydney game will be easy. Or that even the Hawthorn game is a gimme.

The old rose-coloured glasses are on a few too many!

You should watch how Collingwood, Port Adelaide and Brisbane have been playing over the past few weeks. I'd say we're in better form than them.

Edited August 7, 2023 by Hopeful Demon

[YearOfTheDees 3,106]

1 minute ago, old55 said:

"Nothing" is ridiculous hyperbole.  Yes odds will be adjusted when punters place bets, who usually do so based on form anyway.

Last week on Monday North were $1.32 and we were $3.40 lasted all of about two minutes. Bookie do not care who win as long as it is them. Thats why they push Multis so hard. Only time bookies set odds is on the opening book then the logarithm takes over. 

[old55 21,458]

3 minutes ago, YearOfTheDees said:

Last week on Monday North were $1.32 and we were $3.40 lasted all of about two minutes. Bookie do not care who win as long as it is them. Thats why they push Multis so hard. Only time bookies set odds is on the opening book then the logarithm takes over. 

Based on form.

[demosaw 862]

20 hours ago, DubDee said:

Ruck round?  really?

is it small defender round next week?

 

(this week's addition of Dub's Pet Peeves)

Tell them ‘that’s enough Rucking Around’

[YearOfTheDees 3,106]

Just now, old55 said:

Based on form.

Yep the opening book and then it's all logarithm. I love watch the live betting swings crazy on match day. When I was young bookies would take a chance to lose but thats gone now. Of course when I was young there was no sports betting, at least not legal betting. 

[YearOfTheDees 3,106]

3 minutes ago, demosaw said:

Tell them ‘that’s enough Rucking Around’

They was a moment on Sunday where I was sure it was -uck round. 

[old55 21,458]

2 minutes ago, YearOfTheDees said:

Yep the opening book and then it's all logarithm. I love watch the live betting swings crazy on match day. When I was young bookies would take a chance to lose but thats gone now. Of course when I was young there was no sports betting, at least not legal betting. 

Yes the base-line is form, then punters bet based on form and the algorithm adjusts the odds accordingly.

Logarithm was how your slide-rule worked when you were are young bookie.

[Binmans PA 26,337]

1 hour ago, binman said:

We'll beat the blues - and jimmy will be all like:

'Typical comments from the blue and red colored glasses, happy clapper brigade. I mean get real. Of course we beat the blues - they had their two best mids and a key interceptor out.

And yes Melbourne won by 5 goals, but with their outs and the injury to Cripps in the last 30 seconds of the game, a real contender would have thrashed them by 10 goals. 

I mean the signs are clear, Melbourne pick and choose and again only played a quarter of good football - that's not going to cut it against the Pi...., i mean Po.., i mean the Li..., i mean the Dogs, who unlike Melbourne are timing their run to perfection.

Yes, yes, I know Melbourne have now won six games on end, but I simply can't get my head around why people are so confident Melbourne will beat the Hawks and the Swans.

And please, I'm not being disingenuous, negative for being negative sakes, contrarian or trying to wind anyone up. Unlike most posters, I'm simply being objective, clear eyed and realistic.

As I have predicted for weeks, I am confident Melbourne will lose three, sorry i mean two, of their final games. Nothing I have seen in the past few weeks has given me any reason to adjust that assessment. 

The Hawks showed the level they can play at with their win against the Pies. Who by the by just had an off day - all teams have them. 

The Pies are a great team as evidenced by their incredible record going back to their one point loss in the 2018 GF, three really clever rebuilding years at the bottom of the ladder under Buckley, then their narrow losses in finals last season to the Premiers and the rampaging Swans. And the Pies have an inspiring coach who actually knows how to motivate.

Any team that can beat the Pies, even on an off day, is a huge chance to beat Melbourne. 

And don't start me on the bookies odds -  yes Melbourne are clear favorites to win the flag now but that's just a reflection of the ladder, not form. 

And on the ladder, the ladder doesn't lie.

Well, except when it does - often it papers over cracks or simply flatters.

Whilst Melbourne are second with only two rounds to go in the season, only the most blindly optimistic posters will take solace in that. And besides they won't be second after the hawks and swans beat them. And then the ladder won't lie.

And speaking of coaches, Mitchell will run rings around Goodwin tactically. 

And the Swans - well, i know they lost the grand final last year by 15 goals - all teams have an off day - and may not even make finals this year, but they are an incredible team in incredible form (so much better than Melbournes'), are playing at their fortress and will be desperate to win.

And as the coaching Svengali Mcrae says, the game is still played mostly above the shoulders. The Swan's sheer will to win will bridge the huge gulf in ladder position (which doesn't reflect form), talent and system.

And yes, Melbourne will be playing for a home final at the G in front of 90k people, but Melbourne simply won't have the same will to win, because a top 4 spot is sewn up. And Goodwin.

And Longmire will run rings around Goodwin tactically.

And Melbourne will still be reeling from their loss to the Hawks.

I mean, seriously, how does a serious contender recover from being touched up by the 16th placed team late in the season when history shows you need to be playing your very best football to be a genuine threat?

And before any happy clapper, Pie haters jump on me (you know who you are), yes i know the hawks smashed them. But as the genius Mcrae said, they got important feedback from that loss, new feedback to add to the important feedback they got from being touched up by the Blues the previous week.

And feedback from those losses is so much more valuable than Goodwin's 'learnings' from Melbourne's uninspiring wins over the Saints, Lions, Crows, Tigers, North and Blues - or even their 'learnings' from Melbourne's win over the Pies on KB (when  the Pies had an off day - all teams have them).'

Post of the year.

[Jaded No More 58,731]

What we've shown this year, and especially in the last 5 weeks, is that we can win multiple ways, whereas Pies, Port and to a lesser extent Lions cannot.

We can win with attack and defence, and we are able to pull levers and change gears as required. This is very reminiscent of 2021, whereas last year we could go up a gear once, but never more than once and we would get in front, then drop off and lose. That was alarming.

This year we can be behind, not once, but multiple times, swing momentum, score heavily and shut games down.

It's what IMO makes us the best placed contender, as we do not rely on one system or one method alone to win. We don't need everything to go perfectly to execute a win. Goodwin mentioned this post game, and how important it is to win from different scenarios, because you just never know where you'll find yourself in finals. 

Only injuries will stop us winning it this year in my opinion. Not the Pies, not an away final, not some mythical side who will win it from 8th *cough* Chris Scott *cough*. 

[YearOfTheDees 3,106]

2 minutes ago, old55 said:

Yes the base-line is form, then punters bet based on form and the algorithm adjusts the odds accordingly.

Logarithm was how your slide-rule worked when you were are young bookie.

That right its algorithms. And it's not based on the one bet type but all the bet types on one event. So our game next week will have about 162 different bets types and the total book it what they want to win on. I don't bet much anymore just a small multi each week. You can't win you can just get lucky.