Harley Reid

[McQueen 17,863]

We seem to have such a bounty of picks (excess to available list spots) that if we can’t add them together to pull off an absolute steal, it will feel as though it’s a waste. 
 

Feeling a little bit cornered… 🤷🏻‍♂️

[Redleg 37,600]

6 hours ago, whatwhat say what said:

we're not getting him in 2024; he's coming home to us end of 2026

Roos are in the box seat, if they wish to put a lot of their eggs in one basket. They are the only club who can guarantee WC they will get Curtin if they trade 1. The McKay pick 3, will be the key to give them another high end player, if they trade away 2 and their end of first round gift and Port pick. Hawks just behind them.

I can’t see us getting Reid now, or even in 3 years, if he goes to a Victorian club. Top draftees don’t usually leave their club early, unless to go home, ala LJ and JHF.

We will have a very good draft hand though, to get a few top prospects. Maybe that is better than just Reid.

Edited October 6, 2023 by Redleg

[Mach5 4,482]

I really don’t see Curtain going top 4.

[Binmans PA 26,084]

1 minute ago, Mach5 said:

I really don’t see Curtain going top 4.

Which means you think WC will take Reid at 1. If so, you could well be right.

[Mach5 4,482]

Just now, Binmans PA said:

Which means you think WC will take Reid at 1. If so, you could well be right.

Sorry, unfinished thought. 

...if he doesn’t go to Westcoast. If they’re hellbent on picking him, I think they may take him with a top 4 pick they trade in. Not pick 1.

However I don’t see any other club picking him with a top 4 pick.

[Redleg 37,600]

20 minutes ago, Mach5 said:

Sorry, unfinished thought. 

...if he doesn’t go to Westcoast. If they’re hellbent on picking him, I think they may take him with a top 4 pick they trade in. Not pick 1.

However I don’t see any other club picking him with a top 4 pick.

If you are correct and North don’t get 3, then getting 4 from GC would be the start of a trade to get 1. 

[Edm 91]

I don’t see hawks having enough

pick 3 will end up pick 5 maybe next year hawks have a good year and finish just outside top 8 

[Little Goffy 12,572]

The talk of burning multiple first round and even top-5 picks to get Pick 1 deeply scares me.

For all the hype, you have to go back to Nick Riewoldt to find a no.1 pick who was the best player in their draft. Maybe Brendan Goddard in that season's overall pretty weak draft.

Less than 1 in 20 isn't a good enough strike rate to give up multiple picks which have almost as good (or in the case of picks 4 and 5, better) strike rates!

Please could everyone spare a thought for my nerves and stop chasing only the shiniest stone?

[Stiff Arm 4,412]

10 minutes ago, Little Goffy said:

The talk of burning multiple first round and even top-5 picks to get Pick 1 deeply scares me.

For all the hype, you have to go back to Nick Riewoldt to find a no.1 pick who was the best player in their draft. Maybe Brendan Goddard in that season's overall pretty weak draft.

Less than 1 in 20 isn't a good enough strike rate to give up multiple picks which have almost as good (or in the case of picks 4 and 5, better) strike rates!

Please could everyone spare a thought for my nerves and stop chasing only the shiniest stone?

Luke Hodge, Jacob Weitering and Sam Walsh?

But it's a decision for now, not the past

[demoncat 631]

50 minutes ago, Stiff Arm said:

Luke Hodge, Jacob Weitering and Sam Walsh?

But it's a decision for now, not the past

Weitering was taken pick 1 in Clarry’s draft - definitely not the best player… 👀

The other two are though!

[Little Goffy 12,572]

1 hour ago, Stiff Arm said:

Luke Hodge, Jacob Weitering and Sam Walsh?

But it's a decision for now, not the past

Fair call to say each of them would be in 'arguably the best' range.

Personally I'd say Rozee (pick 5) has edged past Walsh now, though Walsh was an amazing early gun and remains elite.

Weitering has to compete with Oliver (4) and C Curnow (12), which might never be splittable given the totally different positions.

Hodge v Judd is an enduring debate, of course. But that 2001 draft produced multiple club champions, Brownlow and Norm Smith medallists - including the talent surge that turned Geelong from mediocre to decade-long dynasty.

The trades being talked about for Reid are greater than Geelong's entire 2001 draft hand!

 

Edit: Gary Ablett Jr was also in 2001, so the Hodge v Judd debate is slightly moot.

Edited October 7, 2023 by Little Goffy

[Binmans PA 26,084]

28 minutes ago, demoncat said:

Weitering was taken pick 1 in Clarry’s draft - definitely not the best player… 👀

The other two are though!

Hodge was in Judd's year, so Hodge wasn't the best player either. Good leader yada yada, but I'm taking Judd every day of the week over Hodge.

[Binmans PA 26,084]

5 minutes ago, Little Goffy said:

Fair call to say each of them would be in 'arguably the best' range.

Personally I'd say Rozee (pick 5) has edged past Walsh now, though Walsh was an amazing early gun and remains elite.

Weitering has to compete with Oliver (4) and C Curnow (12), which might never be splittable given the totally different positions.

Hodge v Judd is an enduring debate, of course. But that 2001 draft produced multiple club champions, Brownlow and Norm Smith medallists - including the talent surge that turned Geelong from mediocre to decade-long dynasty.

The trades being talked about for Reid are greater than Geelong's entire 2001 draft hand!

I'd also take Walsh every day before Rozee.

A good ball user who can run all day and hits the scoreboard. Rozee's ball use is good and he hits the scoreboard, but Walsh is an aerobic freak.

[Little Goffy 12,572]

1 minute ago, Binmans PA said:

I'd also take Walsh every day before Rozee.

A good ball user who can run all day and hits the scoreboard. Rozee's ball use is good and he hits the scoreboard, but Walsh is an aerobic freak.

It is conceivable I'm having actual Bryce Gibbs hallucinations when watching Sam Walsh and that is taking a tiny slice off how highly I rate him. 🤪

I think it is a very fine margin between the two, but I feel like Rozee just has that little bit more influence on games.

[fr_ap 2,148]

1 minute ago, Little Goffy said:

It is conceivable I'm having actual Bryce Gibbs hallucinations when watching Sam Walsh and that is taking a tiny slice off how highly I rate him. 🤪

I think it is a very fine margin between the two, but I feel like Rozee just has that little bit more influence on games.

I don't think you are - you're right on the money. Rozee currently far more damaging. Walsh more rounded and a far better defensive player too, but ball use can be very hit or miss. 

I feel Rozee isnt far off his ceiling. Walsh has some levels to go yet....

[Lil_red_fire_engine 10,184]

6 minutes ago, Binmans PA said:

I'd also take Walsh every day before Rozee.

A good ball user who can run all day and hits the scoreboard. Rozee's ball use is good and he hits the scoreboard, but Walsh is an aerobic freak.

Butters is better than both and went at 12. Worth considering Ports position in that year having picks 5 and 12 is very similar to ours this year. If you trust in Jason Taylor and his record would you back in the potential to trade for pick 1 (Walsh) instead of gaining  a Rozee and Butters equivalent quality.  

[Binmans PA 26,084]

5 minutes ago, fr_ap said:

I don't think you are - you're right on the money. Rozee currently far more damaging. Walsh more rounded and a far better defensive player too, but ball use can be very hit or miss. 

I feel Rozee isnt far off his ceiling. Walsh has some levels to go yet....

This is really not backed up at all by statistics. 

[Binmans PA 26,084]

5 minutes ago, Lil_red_fire_engine said:

Butters is better than both and went at 12. Worth considering Ports position in that year having picks 5 and 12 is very similar to ours this year. If you trust in Jason Taylor and his record would you back in the potential to trade for pick 1 (Walsh) instead of gaining  a Rozee and Butters equivalent quality.  

But Walsh has done it from day dot. Agree that Butters is now the most damaging player out of all of them.

[demoncat 631]

29 minutes ago, Binmans PA said:

Hodge was in Judd's year, so Hodge wasn't the best player either. Good leader yada yada, but I'm taking Judd every day of the week over Hodge.

Totally forgot they were from the same draft - Judd every day of the week then 😅

[beelzebub 22,225]

6 hours ago, Redleg said:

Roos are in the box seat, if they wish to put a lot of their eggs in one basket. They are the only club who can guarantee WC they will get Curtin if they trade 1. The McKay pick 3, will be the key to give them another high end player, if they trade away 2 and their end of first round gift and Port pick. Hawks just behind them.

I can’t see us getting Reid now, or even in 3 years, if he goes to a Victorian club. Top draftees don’t usually leave their club early, unless to go home, ala LJ and JHF.

We will have a very good draft hand though, to get a few top prospects. Maybe that is better than just Reid.

I always thought better to get a few really good prospects as opposed the crown jewel.. laws of probability and all...

Quite fascinated to see where we go with this.  JT et al have done ok to date, see no reason they won't continue 

[Redleg 37,600]

2 hours ago, Little Goffy said:

The talk of burning multiple first round and even top-5 picks to get Pick 1 deeply scares me.

For all the hype, you have to go back to Nick Riewoldt to find a no.1 pick who was the best player in their draft. Maybe Brendan Goddard in that season's overall pretty weak draft.

Less than 1 in 20 isn't a good enough strike rate to give up multiple picks which have almost as good (or in the case of picks 4 and 5, better) strike rates!

Please could everyone spare a thought for my nerves and stop chasing only the shiniest stone?

I suppose the difference is that several experienced recruiters are saying Reid is the best kid they have EVER seen.

[Diamond_Jim 11,761]

Interesting from an Age article today.

Five clubs have interviewed him. MFC not one of them.

If the Eagles are not convinced Reid will stay, they can trade away pick one for multiple picks, presumably to use on West Australian top-five prospect Daniel Curtin. In a sign of who else might be interested, Reid said the Eagles, North Melbourne, Hawthorn, Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney have all interviewed him.

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/the-no-1-question-being-asked-of-this-year-s-top-pick-harley-reid-20231007-p5eah9.html

Just noticed he played for Tongala. Was that in our old zone around Shepparton?

Edited October 7, 2023 by Diamond_Jim

[whatwhat say what 18,950]

36 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Interesting from an Age article today.

Five clubs have interviewed him. MFC not one of them.

If the Eagles are not convinced Reid will stay, they can trade away pick one for multiple picks, presumably to use on West Australian top-five prospect Daniel Curtin. In a sign of who else might be interested, Reid said the Eagles, North Melbourne, Hawthorn, Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney have all interviewed him.

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/the-no-1-question-being-asked-of-this-year-s-top-pick-harley-reid-20231007-p5eah9.html

Just noticed he played for Tongala. Was that in our old zone around Shepparton?

pretty sure garry lyon put in the good word for us with the family at a recent kyabram fc shindig

Edited October 7, 2023 by whatwhat say what

[dazzledavey36 48,759]

48 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Interesting from an Age article today.

Five clubs have interviewed him. MFC not one of them.

If the Eagles are not convinced Reid will stay, they can trade away pick one for multiple picks, presumably to use on West Australian top-five prospect Daniel Curtin. In a sign of who else might be interested, Reid said the Eagles, North Melbourne, Hawthorn, Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney have all interviewed him.

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/the-no-1-question-being-asked-of-this-year-s-top-pick-harley-reid-20231007-p5eah9.html

Just noticed he played for Tongala. Was that in our old zone around Shepparton?

Very interesting indeed.

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter 10,582]

7 hours ago, Little Goffy said:

Fair call to say each of them would be in 'arguably the best' range.

Personally I'd say Rozee (pick 5) has edged past Walsh now, though Walsh was an amazing early gun and remains elite.

Weitering has to compete with Oliver (4) and C Curnow (12), which might never be splittable given the totally different positions.

Hodge v Judd is an enduring debate, of course. But that 2001 draft produced multiple club champions, Brownlow and Norm Smith medallists - including the talent surge that turned Geelong from mediocre to decade-long dynasty.

The trades being talked about for Reid are greater than Geelong's entire 2001 draft hand!

 

Edit: Gary Ablett Jr was also in 2001, so the Hodge v Judd debate is slightly moot.

Add to that other list Christian Patracca, who would have gone pick 1 if St Kilda didn't hace a masive recruiting brain fade.

Matt Rowell also looks like being a pretty decient footballer.