Harley Reid

[Nascent 7,406]

Time this thread got a bit of a revive.

West Coast no certainties to take him. The big competition is North Melbourne with pick 2 and all their compensation picks.

 

[Pipefitter 2,029]

6 minutes ago, Nascent said:

Time this thread got a bit of a revive.

West Coast no certainties to take him. The big competition is North Melbourne with pick 2 and all their compensation picks.

 

They just have to split the number one. Their List is at ground zero. They need heaps of picks. Not just one.z

[Nascent 7,406]

Roos target pick one, Dee to go on, big Dog to stay - https://www.afl.com.au/news/1048225

 

Hard to see how we will beat the Roos hand. Will they give up 2 and 3 for pick 1? Big call for a team that is already top heavy with midfielders.

[Stiff Arm 4,415]

45 minutes ago, Nascent said:

Roos target pick one, Dee to go on, big Dog to stay - https://www.afl.com.au/news/1048225

 

Hard to see how we will beat the Roos hand. Will they give up 2 and 3 for pick 1? Big call for a team that is already top heavy with midfielders.

Reckon they'd give up 2 and a later 1st rounder. Don't they have 14 or something similar? Maybe a 2024 late 1st as well.

That leaves Norf with 1, 3 and the AFLs gifted end of 1st round. That's a bloody good hand. They might even grab O'Sullivan with 3 to replenish their key defensive stocks

A lot to like about Norf's list going forward

WCE get their WA boy and a couple of 1st rounders

Win/win

Edited October 2, 2023 by Stiff Arm

[ChaserJ 3,985]

Jon Ralph speculating (both OTC & I assume in HS article that went up at the same time he went to air) that the Essendon contract to McKay may not be big enough to attract band 1 compensation, stating that Essendon were only prepared to offer McKay what they thought he was worth (rather than pay more just to prevent North from matching).

He reckons Essendon have offered incentive laden contract worth around 780k, so without AFL ‘massaging’ the compensation, doesn’t seem to rise to band 1 level.

[dazzledavey36 49,154]

6 minutes ago, ChaserJ said:

Jon Ralph speculating (both OTC & I assume in HS article that went up at the same time he went to air) that the Essendon contract to McKay may not be big enough to attract band 1 compensation, stating that Essendon were only prepared to offer McKay what they thought he was worth (rather than pay more just to prevent North from matching).

He reckons Essendon have offered incentive laden contract worth around 780k, so without AFL ‘massaging’ the compensation, doesn’t seem to rise to band 1 level.

Big news if true.

[Nascent 7,406]

Would love for that to be the case.

Essendon have picks 8 and 28 but are trying to engineer a first round pick via Gresham compensation to be traded to them for shiel. Approximately pick 13.

Roos will match and force a trade so essendon most likely will have to give up either 8 or 13.

[Cheap Seats 3,303]

2 minutes ago, Nascent said:

Would love for that to be the case.

Essendon have picks 8 and 28 but are trying to engineer a first round pick via Gresham compensation to be traded to them for shiel. Approximately pick 13.

Roos will match and force a trade so essendon most likely will have to give up either 8 or 13.

Why would St kilda bother doing that? If the AFL let blatant draft tampering happen i am giving up my 30 year membership and support something else.

[ChaserJ 3,985]

3 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Big news if true.

Would be massive. Everyone has been speculating on what triggers band 1 compo, and I think if that number from Essendon is remotely accurate (the Age gave an approximate of 750k a few weeks ago, so either agents are backgrounding or clubs have made an informed guess), no one would expect that to trigger band 1. 
 

Clubs were already angry about the assistance package, the compensation pick is going to be a massive watch.

[Nascent 7,406]

1 hour ago, ChaserJ said:

Jon Ralph speculating (both OTC & I assume in HS article that went up at the same time he went to air) that the Essendon contract to McKay may not be big enough to attract band 1 compensation, stating that Essendon were only prepared to offer McKay what they thought he was worth (rather than pay more just to prevent North from matching).

He reckons Essendon have offered incentive laden contract worth around 780k, so without AFL ‘massaging’ the compensation, doesn’t seem to rise to band 1 level.

My concern would be the AFL hiding behind their secret formula.

He'll maximise compensation points on age and allegedly his contract is 6yrs, which I think also comes into play. There's enough wiggle room for the AFL to engineer as they please I fear.

[adonski 9,263]

Postings from a supposed ITK Eagles man about a week ago. Didn't think there was any chance it'd be right at the time 

[Mach5 4,483]

14 hours ago, adonski said:

Postings from a supposed ITK Eagles man about a week ago. Didn't think there was any chance it'd be right at the time 

Who would’ve guessed?

Albeit not confirmed yet.

[adonski 9,263]

4 minutes ago, Mach5 said:

Who would’ve guessed?

Albeit not confirmed yet.

Essendon could pay McKay a slab every game, unfortunately the AFL will still see a way where Norf get pick 3 

[DeeSpencer 23,378]

3 minutes ago, adonski said:

Essendon could pay McKay a slab every game, unfortunately the AFL will still see a way where Norf get pick 3 

The 3 first round picks (and one last year) in any fair system would indicate they weren’t getting pick 3. And would arm them with easily enough ammunition to:

Turn pick 2 in to pick 1 so they can celebrate Reid

OR

Trade up for pick 4 so they can trumpet having picks 2 and 4.

The best thing for the afl would be North getting Reid and the Eagles getting Curtin and a stack of picks so they too can improve quickly.

I bet they’d like Essendon out of the dog house quickly too. Now that Carlton are up and about they won’t want one of the big 4 left behind. 

[Timothy Reddan-A'Blew 3,993]

27 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

The 3 first round picks (and one last year) in any fair system would indicate they weren’t getting pick 3. And would arm them with easily enough ammunition to:

Turn pick 2 in to pick 1 so they can celebrate Reid

OR

Trade up for pick 4 so they can trumpet having picks 2 and 4.

The best thing for the afl would be North getting Reid and the Eagles getting Curtin and a stack of picks so they too can improve quickly.

I bet they’d like Essendon out of the dog house quickly too. Now that Carlton are up and about they won’t want one of the big 4 left behind. 

It's never going to go away, is it?......

[Nascent 7,406]

Hawks making a play with pick 3, future 1st and Brockman.

Star Dog in talks, Power mid attracts interest, flag Dee to stay - https://www.afl.com.au/news/1048515

[Stiff Arm 4,415]

4 hours ago, Nascent said:

Hawks making a play with pick 3, future 1st and Brockman.

Star Dog in talks, Power mid attracts interest, flag Dee to stay - https://www.afl.com.au/news/1048515

Reckon that's a good offer from Hawks. Hard for us to beat it

[ChaserJ 3,985]

Marc McGowan going through the 4 clubs that could put together a deal for Reid, he has us in the mix and outlines scenarios where we could put together a good enough trade package:

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/he-s-the-no-1-draft-pick-here-s-how-your-club-can-get-its-hands-on-him-20231002-p5e93t.html

[Roost it far 6,239]

7 minutes ago, ChaserJ said:

Marc McGowan going through the 4 clubs that could put together a deal for Reid, he has us in the mix and outlines scenarios where we could put together a good enough trade package:

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/he-s-the-no-1-draft-pick-here-s-how-your-club-can-get-its-hands-on-him-20231002-p5e93t.html

Hawthorn right in the hunt by the looks

[Pulp Fritschon 641]

Not sure what is in that article by Marc McGowan……but imo - 

I see the only way for WC will give up 1 is if they get pick 2 and take the local player. 
 

For us to get involved we would need to pay off both WC and North. 
 

North getting pick 3 for McKay is crucial to both clubs entertaining a pick shuffle. 
 

Hawthorn’s offer is decent but think WC want 2 early picks this year. 
 

I think we could still get involved but we will need to pay quite heavily. 
 

 

Edited October 6, 2023 by Pulp Fritschon

[Jeremy 639]

5 minutes ago, Pulp Fritschon said:

Not sure what is in that article by Marc McGowan……but imo - 

I see the only way for WC will give up 1 is if they get pick 2 and take the local player. 
 

For us to get involved we would need to pay off both WC and North. 
 

North getting pick 3 for McKay is crucial to both clubs entertaining a pick shuffle. 
 

Hawthorn’s offer is decent but think WC want 2 early picks this year. 
 

I think we could still get involved but we will need to pay quite heavily. 
 

 

Any chance we could move up to pick 3 from North to grab Duursma before Hawks?

[ChaserJ 3,985]

3 hours ago, Pulp Fritschon said:

Not sure what is in that article by Marc McGowan……but imo - 

I see the only way for WC will give up 1 is if they get pick 2 and take the local player. 
 

For us to get involved we would need to pay off both WC and North. 
 

North getting pick 3 for McKay is crucial to both clubs entertaining a pick shuffle. 
 

Hawthorn’s offer is decent but think WC want 2 early picks this year. 
 

I think we could still get involved but we will need to pay quite heavily. 
 

 

McGowan only outlines that we are a chance (rather than favourites), he does detail that band 1 compensation for McKay complicates the pathway, but thinks we have a shot if we can secure pick 10 from GC (have to beat Kangas for that pick) if Bulldogs complete the trade for pick 4:

'In this scenario, Melbourne’s offer would likely be 13, 25 and 33 for 10 (and likely something coming back next year), which would deliver the Suns more than 1100 extra draft points. Melbourne’s free agency compensation (pick 39) for Sydney-bound midfielder James Jordon offers another option.'

[Nascent 7,406]

25, 33 and 39 gives gold coast an extra 400 odd points, should be able to leave 13 untouched.

They probably won't be interested but pick 5 and 25 for pick 4 instantly gives them an extra 600 points and then they can sell 5 to the highest bidder.

[hardtack 10,127]

With the number of empty places on our list, how can we afford to trade enough picks to get into a position to nab Reid?

I get the feeling we might look at using what we currently have and what we get from the Grundy trade to end up with a couple of top ten picks without actually improving beyond the Freo pick (I’d assume the JJ late second round pick will go to Adelaide for McAdam) and then look at the Wizard and possibly someone like O’Sullivan or Caddy, as well as a couple of second (and third?) rounders.

If none of this makes any sense, I’m blaming my medication 😂

Edited October 6, 2023 by hardtack

[whatwhat say what 19,487]

26 minutes ago, hardtack said:

With the number of empty places on our list, how can we afford to trade enough picks to get into a position to nab Reid?

I get the feeling we might look at using what we currently have and what we get from the Grundy trade to end up with a couple of top ten picks without actually improving beyond the Freo pick (I’d assume the JJ late second round pick will go to Adelaide for McAdam) and then look at the Wizard and possibly someone like O’Sullivan or Caddy, as well as a couple of second (and third?) rounders.

If none of this makes any sense, I’m blaming my medication 😂

we're not getting him in 2024; he's coming home to us end of 2026