POSTGAME: Rd 15 vs Geelong

[leave it to deever 15,835]

37 minutes ago, layzie said:

I just hope they don't start some big winning streak against us as payback for 2021. Virusgate

Our team plays better at big grounds like the G because we are a fairly fast team reliant on quick handballs into players with space we and we like to use the wings.

Kardinia Park is not the format for us.

Edited June 23, 2023 by leave it to deever

[beelzebub 22,230]

@binman

I only really have one reservation about the voracity of your suggestion of loading fatigue.  Had we been playing on a 5-6 day turnaround I might give it more heed.

But we weren't.  We had 10 days.

Sorry...not really buying it.

[forever demons 1,854]

2 hours ago, Superunknown said:

I played 9 holes at Royal Lismore before work this morning and shot 36 so that perked me up a bit. Recommend finding something. Not alcohol!

The grog is perfect for a pick me up and a lot warmer than golf.And i want to know who made the rule you cant drink before breakfast.Anyway rules are made to be broken

[demon3165 1,980]

45 minutes ago, Macca said:

The season isn't over yet

I said it after round 10 last year that we would not win it and if they don't change they won't win it this year.....

[NeveroddoreveN 1,034]

Not to dare question anything regarding loading.... as it seems to go from about here to the end of the season.

I actually don't get why all of a sudden this a factor.

We have come off a bye, with a 4 day break allowed to players and a normal-ish training run leading into the Geelong game. *Majorly doubtful we put in "extra" loads over this break...When were they?

We did not use those 4 days to get extra training sessions in.

The bye may be a factor and i am SURE it is considering other results coming off one.

The talk of loading as first point of conjecture during this part of the season gets way too much emphasis on this site.  It is a factor, but not the reason why we lost last night. There were plenty of reasons we wound up losing....I doubt loading was in the top 5 honestly.

 

[kryton101 337]

Not sure if this has already been said?

 

If Rohan was an opposition player he‘d be looking at 2-3 weeks, where is his duty of care??  Of course it wasn’t a deliberate act, but from the quick vision I saw his feet were off the ground….  Just an observation!

[Macca 16,173]

4 minutes ago, demon3165 said:

I said it after round 10 last year that we would not win it and if they don't change they won't win it this year.....

I still believe we can win it all but we need to bring our best (see the Pies match)

At issue in the Collingwood game was our kicking for goal ... midfield delivery was quite good and our forwards competed well

Our structures were very very good

Against the Cats in the wet last night, we didn't perform

Our run home should see us secure a top 4 spot.  It's not a tough draw from here on in

[rpfc 27,535]

1 hour ago, binman said:

I'm going to avoid DL for a few days, and footy media too, because it will just irritate me as there will be little, if any consideration of the single most important factor in the loss - fatigue as result of a heavy block of training. 

If the fatigue from loading is not factored in, any related analysis is of little value to be honest.

I said ahead of the game that a win would be a bonus. Predicted a loss actually. And the game played out exactly as i expected it would. 

I haven't listened to Goody's presser yet, but if he said the effort was good, i'd agree.

The effort was really good in the last q too. Why?

Because the players were so obviously completely out of gas. Look at the drop off in any relevant stat to see evidence of that - CPs, inside 50, time in forward half, kms run etc etc. 

But perhaps the most compelling indicator of the impact of fatigue is the pressure ratings, and our incredible drop off in the last quarter (180 is considered AFL average, and 200 elite):

Team pressure

Quarter	For	Against
1	183	206
2	224	175
3	214	197
4	163	204
Match	196	196

To only lose by 15 in the end was a really gutsy performance.

Compare it to the capitulation by Lions (v Hawks) in their post-match bye when fatigue was also clearly the most critical factor or Freo's shellacking by Giants last week, when fatigue was again the key factor, as it was in their post bye loss to the tigers).

Or perhaps a more direct example. 

Like us last night, the Cats were coming of their bye last week against Port. Meaning, the Cats (who acknowledged last year they copied our approach to loading) had just completed a block of heavy training and were fatigued as a result. 

Halfway through the second q the Cats had a 20-point lead and were playing a tough, physical brand of football. They started to fade after that point but got to half time with a 7-point lead.

In the second half the Cats completely ran out of gas. 

After half time Port:

• outscored the Cats by 45 points (11.6.72 to 4.3.27)
• smashed the Cats at stoppages 26 to 9 
• scored 6.1.37 to 1.0.6 from stoppages (31 points more from stoppages in a half of footy is nuts - it is only 7 points less than the final margin).

Ultimately, after leading at half time, the Cats, who unsurprisingly ran out the game better than us last night, capitulated and ended up losing by six plus goals (38 points).

Like the Cats, Lions and Freo, we had zero run in the legs and so could not spread or run in waves to create separation, options up or properly cover the Cats' spread. 

But unlike the Cats, Lions and Freo we kept grinding and fought hard for every contest.

What do people think Scott meant when he said ahead of the game that this was a 'good time' to play the dees?

Perhaps some might say he was referencing the bye (because surprise, surprise, every team has lost after the bye, bar the Saints, who beat the Swans - who were coming off a bye. I mean really, what do people think is the cause of teams not being competitive after their bye? Coincidence? A statistical anomaly? Please).

Well, yes, he may well have meant that. But not because the bye has some magical, mystical losing quality. But because he knows the dees had gone hard on the track to get their foundation down for September.

Which, speaking of Scott, is exactly what he was talking about this time last year when talking about the training program, ours, they had adopted. Scott said if their training program meant they lost games they otherwise might have won, and didn't make the 8 as a result, then so be it - it was a risk worth taking because going hard now is the only way to have a realistic chance of winning the flag.

Those comments apply to us - and all other contenders for that matter.

Some might push back and say, well you can't win the flag if you don't finish top 4. And that is true (save an outlier result). But it is a calculated gamble. We are no risk of not making the 8, but we could drop out of the top 4.

But like Scott's calculation, it is about the best chance of winning a flag not finishing top 4 (by the by, @Stu made an interesting point in the podcast chat room wondering if Hinkley has eschewed loading to the extent other clubs have to maximise their chance of winning individual games and shore up his position).

And when assessing the risk, they will have looked at the ladder and our fixture and landed on it being very likely we finish the home and away season top 4. In fact, I'm tipping we won't drop out of the top 4 at point for the rest of the season (we can't go drop out this week thanks to our percentage). 

Here we go again…

I don’t doubt that these 3 10 day breaks have been peppered with running blocks but can we put that to one side?

The genesis of our issue was not that last quarter - it was our inability to construct deep and meaningful forward entries when we were winning the contest and territory. And applying amazing pressure as you note.

Like last year - I am ignoring the ‘red herring’ of loading to see if there are broader issues and there are. There just are. We are really not creating good forward entries against good teams and it’s making it harder to capitalise on and score goals.

[kev martin 9,215]

2 hours ago, Diamond_Jim said:

I expect at least one of the big 4/5 will be making the trip down the highway next year.

My guess is, If they make the finals in 2024, then they will lobby very hard for a home final.

Teams need to find a way to win there.

[Redleg 37,794]

1 hour ago, Macca said:

Maybe they don't trust him yet or maybe Smith leading was too much of a shock for them!!

I'm not being serious as that is a good observation of yours. 

Our midfielders do spray it forward a bit but again, all our forwards small and tall should be making multiple leads on a constant basis

The bit I observe is that our forwards don't anticipate the ball coming in ... often left flat-footed

Oh for the days of Neitz, Schwartz, Farmer & Robbo

 They'd be handy now

Would be near certainties for the flag with that 4 in now.

[Gawndy the Great 7,540]

23 minutes ago, demon3165 said:

I said it after round 10 last year that we would not win it and if they don't change they won't win it this year.....

I’m in this camp as well. For a team and coaching group hell bent on learning, we are sure good at not making any real progress on obvious flaws.  

I’ll go out on a limb and say that this year is probably our last realistic chance at a flag for the while. We will come back to the pack unless we can inject some critical new players.

 

 

[whatwhat say what 19,146]

given the incredible pressure we maintained either side of the main break, was it really that much of a surprise that we dropped off as badly as we did in the last?

also. i would suggest the 'average' output of 163 is also fairly meaningless - i'd like to see a breakdown based on ten minute increments, as the puddy tatts absolutely dominated that first 10 mins of the last before we were able to put some pressure back on them

[Macca 16,173]

Just now, Redleg said:

Would be near certainties for the flag with that 4 in now.

I'd be happy with 1 or 2 of them

Neitz and either Schwarz or Farmer.  Robbo flew from behind a bit but he took a stack of marks on the lead

Just give me Neitz and then all the rest of our current crop play better as a result

[Redleg 37,794]

6 minutes ago, Macca said:

I'd be happy with 1 or 2 of them

Neitz and either Schwarz or Farmer.  Robbo flew from behind a bit but he took a stack of marks on the lead

Just give me Neitz and then all the rest of our current crop play better as a result

Absolutely.

[Clintosaurus 6,537]

Some classic reactions in here. We'll make top 4. Combo of letting them play their style in the last and some hometown umpiring got them home.

[Demonsone 1,614]

16 hours ago, praha said:

Melbourne has finished 1st, 2nd, and is 3rd 14 rounds into another year.

And yet Goodwin is never recognised for his coaching or as being one of the best coaches in the league.

Tonight is a prime example of why.

We are forever grateful as he’s our premiership drought breaking coach… development & recruiting from Jason Taylor excellent but look at our fwd line & understanding personnel with injuries to Bb & Tmac we only have a 20y JVR who is doing fine considering his youth etc..club Ned’s to capitalise on the premiership window & we haven’t been able to recruit a great n fwd..  all of our smalls not playing well & continue to bomb it in 

[Fat Tony 4,447]

We did not go in with the right mindset and played like we had just got off the plane from Noosa.

We also got beaten by the same plans as last year. Stanley scragging Gawn and Blicavs/Atkins scragging Petracca.

Our ball movement was unsuited to the narrow ground, conceding too much ground by handball.

Our kick ins were ordinary and Gawn was out of position too often.

We should have gone in breathing fire after last year but came out lacking aggression and purpose.

Our centre stoppage work was too cute and we needed to surge the ball forward, particularly when the Cats did not even contest the ruck.

Execution in front of goal was lacking, Smith and Chandler missed snaps were schoolboy errors.

I can understand the decision to swap Tomlinson for Petty, but it is clear we cannot play 3 midgets (Pickett, Spargo and Chandler) in the same side.

While the bye was a reason for a lot of the issues, Goodwin has to wear responsibility for not getting us up/prepared this week.

[Brownie 5,334]

1 hour ago, buck_nekkid said:

Often times we look for a deeper option, so the closer option can become a defender as we roll up the ground if there is a turnover. We often kick over a leading player to a deeper contest (it frustrates me to bits) but maybe that is the team rule?

That's the bit that frustrates me.

I get what @WalkingCivilWaris saying about this thread being negative and we shouldn't really bag the players that give it their all but something just stinks with our system going forward.

There's hardly ever a short kick into a loose player 35m out, just bomb it long into packs is the most regular option and then try and lock it in.

A lot of our goals seem to be from mad scrambles and snaps.

We're getting the entries, we should have beaten the cats, Essendon, port and should have smashed the pies not just fallen over the line.

I think the overall theme is disappointment.

We have a really strong list.

We have a very strong defence and great midfield.

When the ball goes into our 50, it turns into auskick. It's complete chaos.

I'm looking at the coaches predominately to get a better system working for us to convert from a wealth of posession.

This thread is a whole heap of people disappointed that our very good team is not grasping the opportunities presented.

The premiership window is open to us right now and we keep kicking the ball blindly into the wall.

[WalkingCivilWar 32,386]

17 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Brayshaw is a turnover slob

Andy, surely we don’t tolerate personal attacks on our own players (?)

The above is a horrible insult and has ZERO to do with footy.

I was gonna just report this but I feel it needs calling out publicly otherwise it will never end.

 

@Demonland

[SPC 2,860]

Did I read somewhere every team returning from the bye playing teams not coming off the bye had lost?

[YearOfTheDees 3,101]

I might be off target here but most teams go into matches against us believing they can beat us and play to beat us. We go into a lot of game believing we are going to win and play like we just have to turn up. Point is our problem/issue is more in our head then anywhere else.

[dees189227 10,858]

7 minutes ago, SPC said:

Did I read somewhere every team returning from the bye playing teams not coming off the bye had lost?

Yep only stkilda has won. 

[beelzebub 22,230]

1 hour ago, Clintosaurus said:

Some classic reactions in here. We'll make top 4. Combo of letting them play their style in the last and some hometown umpiring got them home.

You were watching the whole game mr saurus.  They broke away in the last but all game they found a way through.  

[DemonOX 8,541]

No Dangerfield or Cameron = NO DEMON WIN  

Opportunity lost  

Very frustrating game. 

[demon3165 1,980]

2 hours ago, Macca said:

I still believe we can win it all but we need to bring our best (see the Pies match)

At issue in the Collingwood game was our kicking for goal ... midfield delivery was quite good and our forwards competed well

Our structures were very very good

Against the Cats in the wet last night, we didn't perform

Our run home should see us secure a top 4 spot.  It's not a tough draw from here on in

Lets talk about the pies game, we had Oliver and Petty out, the pies had Sidebottom their biggest playmaker, De Goey, Elliot and Ginnivan out and if the rumour is true some had the flu but yes we missed a lot of fairly easy shots at goal but that's bad football.

Yes we will could still make top 4 but lets but there is a bit of work to be done.