POSTGAME: Rd 15 vs Geelong

[WalkingCivilWar 32,383]

14 hours ago, layzie said:

we're just idi0ts from the armchairs

Tried to read this thread (ever keen to learn) but couldn’t get past the second page. The usual culprits with their ridiculous comments (eg: Smith can’t play football… 🤮 and that’s just one of many, many examples of BS).

The post above pretty much says it all (thanks Layz) about some of the nasty people on here.

I have a theory that gets stronger by the day: DL has some failed aspirants, people who always dreamed of making it in the AFL but weren’t quite good enough. The bitterness is channeled towards DL in the form of bagging our players, oftentimes personally and mostly unjustified. Just my take on what I read here all too often.

Anyways, onto our next challenge… 

GO DEES!!!

❤️💙

 

 

[Rab D Nesbitt 7,266]

In retrospect, we can talk all day about the game plan or personnel but the fact remains we had Geelong on the ropes for the best part of 2 quarters and as a result of poor execution and decision making inside 50 throughout that period failed to put them away, or at least keep them at arms reach on the scoreboard going into the final quarter. 

Kudos to the Cats for taking the initiative where we couldn't and cut through our press in the last with a combination of precise field kicking and the will to just move the ball forward at speed that left us hopelessly exposed at the back. As a defender I'd be pulling my hair out. As bad as we are around goal at the moment last night was also about a failure to stop them exiting our forward line with the ball. If we had at least done that it would have made for an arm wrestle until the end. The game was effectively over though as soon as they slammed on the first four goals of that final quarter. 

[beelzebub 22,230]

🤔🤔What happened to the team that played Collingwood? 

Did they get on the wrong bus ?? 🤷🤷

[demon3165 1,979]

1 hour ago, Macca said:

In 2021 our forwards were on the move especially during the finals.  Therefore the ball was kicked to those forwards

Result - Premiership

Now our forwards are like statues

Back in 2021 Brown led up and nearly always played in front.  T-Mac the same and he constantly created separation

What have we got now? 

If you can't see the difference I can't help you

If you cannot see that we are trying to play the same way as 21 with ball movement then I can't help you, what we did is was what the dogs did in 16, right place right time, played the same way in 22 where did that get us, Goodwin had a chance to play BBB is a lead up forward but chosen not to so what does that tell you.

[WalkingCivilWar 32,383]

Don’t know if anyone has touched on it (coz can’t bear to read the bile on this embarrassing thread) but wanted to give a huge shoutout to everyone who attended the match last night. Thank you for being there to support our boys, who I’m sure are just as disappointed as we are.

I couldn’t attend since I was at my son’s school concert but even in hindsight I wish I could’ve been there, especially since we lost, coz that’s when our players need us most. Oh and also because apart from your own kid’s five minutes on stage, two hours of everyone else’s kids performing is akin to torture. My ears are still bleeding. 😭

[demon3165 1,979]

1 minute ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

Don’t know if anyone has touched on it (coz can’t bear to read the bile on this embarrassing thread) but wanted to give a huge shoutout to everyone who attended the match last night. Thank you for being there to support our boys, who I’m sure are just as disappointed as we are.

I couldn’t attend since I was at my son’s school concert but even in hindsight I wish I could’ve been there, especially since we lost, coz that’s when our players need us most. Oh and also because apart from your own kid’s five minutes on stage, two hours of everyone else’s kids performing is akin to torture. My ears are still bleeding. 😭

We can tell !!!!

[leave it to deever 15,835]

I'm not going to get too upset by last night's loss.

Yes it was bloody frustrating cos we could gave so easily won it.

But I expected a loss here anyway.

It's some sort of alternate universe down there at kardinia or whatever that dump is called these days that despite their form, cats always win.

I was really upset by the freo loss.

I'm not too negative thanks to our big KB win. 

It's a tight season and we at our best can mix it up with anyone.

We have a good run home and hopefully the brain trust can sort out our forward line. Yes, I said brain.

Anyway, needless to say a win against gws is crucial.

Get well soon Oliver.

Also our injury list may not look huge but since round one we have consistently had key players go down each week.

We will be in the mix come September.  I just hope we have got sorted by then.

 

[WalkingCivilWar 32,383]

15 minutes ago, demon3165 said:

We can tell !!!!

Skase

[leave it to deever 15,835]

31 minutes ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

have a theory that gets stronger by the day: DL has some failed aspirants, people who always dreamed of making it in the AFL but weren’t quite good enough. The bitterness is channeled towards DL in the form of bagging our players, oftentimes personally and mostly unjustified. Just my take on what I read here all too often.

Not me.  I was [censored] at footy from day one. I tried my best but knew I never even play amateur so packed in for sports that would allow for me to still be able to walk at the end of the day. The bitterness comes from other failures. But hey why keep it to oneself? 😃😃😃 

I think the frustration comes from Tommo being dropped for an underdone Petty. It was a close game and Could have changed things. Also, I honestly don't get all the time an effort to make Petty a fwd. Finally he showed form and its back to the backline. Confusion for me.

[leave it to deever 15,835]

37 minutes ago, Rab D Nesbitt said:

In retrospect, we can talk all day about the game plan or personnel but the fact remains we had Geelong on the ropes for the best part of 2 quarters and as a result of poor execution and decision making inside 50 throughout that period failed to put them away, or at least keep them at arms reach on the scoreboard going into the final quarter. 

Kudos to the Cats for taking the initiative where we couldn't and cut through our press in the last with a combination of precise field kicking and the will to just move the ball forward at speed that left us hopelessly exposed at the back. As a defender I'd be pulling my hair out. As bad as we are around goal at the moment last night was also about a failure to stop them exiting our forward line with the ball. If we had at least done that it would have made for an arm wrestle until the end. The game was effectively over though as soon as they slammed on the first four goals of that final quarter. 

Some accurate kicking or Anb kicking that goal and we probably have some chocolates.

[layzie 29,087]

I just hope they don't start some big winning streak against us as payback for 2021. Virusgate

[demon3165 1,979]

6 minutes ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

Skase

Just like shooting fish in a barrel....

[jules7 710]

Disappointed with last nights game is an understatement.  Haven't read the entire thread, but does anyone think Daisy's input and knowledge of our inner sanctum, would have assisted them last night?

[demon3165 1,979]

1 minute ago, jules7 said:

Disappointed with last nights game is an understatement.  Haven't read the entire thread, but does anyone think Daisy's input and knowledge of our inner sanctum, would have assisted them last night?

None what so ever

[Macca 16,173]

35 minutes ago, demon3165 said:

 Goodwin had a chance to play BBB is a lead up forward but chosen not to so what does that tell you.

The season isn't over yet

[The heart beats true 16,331]

48 minutes ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

I have a theory that gets stronger by the day: DL has some failed aspirants, people who always dreamed of making it in the AFL but weren’t quite good enough. 

 

Not me WCW!

I was nowhere near good enough 🤣

[binman 38,596]

I'm going to avoid DL for a few days, and footy media too, because it will just irritate me as there will be little, if any consideration of the single most important factor in the loss - fatigue as result of a heavy block of training. 

If the fatigue from loading is not factored in, any related analysis is of little value to be honest.

I said ahead of the game that a win would be a bonus. Predicted a loss actually. And the game played out exactly as i expected it would. 

I haven't listened to Goody's presser yet, but if he said the effort was good, i'd agree.

The effort was really good in the last q too. Why?

Because the players were so obviously completely out of gas. Look at the drop off in any relevant stat to see evidence of that - CPs, inside 50, time in forward half, kms run etc etc. 

But perhaps the most compelling indicator of the impact of fatigue is the pressure ratings, and our incredible drop off in the last quarter (180 is considered AFL average, and 200 elite):

Team pressure

Quarter	For	Against
1	183	206
2	224	175
3	214	197
4	163	204
Match	196	196

To only lose by 15 in the end was a really gutsy performance.

Compare it to the capitulation by Lions (v Hawks) in their post-match bye when fatigue was also clearly the most critical factor or Freo's shellacking by Giants last week, when fatigue was again the key factor, as it was in their post bye loss to the tigers).

Or perhaps a more direct example. 

Like us last night, the Cats were coming of their bye last week against Port. Meaning, the Cats (who acknowledged last year they copied our approach to loading) had just completed a block of heavy training and were fatigued as a result. 

Halfway through the second q the Cats had a 20-point lead and were playing a tough, physical brand of football. They started to fade after that point but got to half time with a 7-point lead.

In the second half the Cats completely ran out of gas. 

After half time Port:

• outscored the Cats by 45 points (11.6.72 to 4.3.27)
• smashed the Cats at stoppages 26 to 9 
• scored 6.1.37 to 1.0.6 from stoppages (31 points more from stoppages in a half of footy is nuts - it is only 7 points less than the final margin).

Ultimately, after leading at half time, the Cats, who unsurprisingly ran out the game better than us last night, capitulated and ended up losing by six plus goals (38 points).

Like the Cats, Lions and Freo, we had zero run in the legs and so could not spread or run in waves to create separation, options up or properly cover the Cats' spread. 

But unlike the Cats, Lions and Freo we kept grinding and fought hard for every contest.

What do people think Scott meant when he said ahead of the game that this was a 'good time' to play the dees?

Perhaps some might say he was referencing the bye (because surprise, surprise, every team has lost after the bye, bar the Saints, who beat the Swans - who were coming off a bye. I mean really, what do people think is the cause of teams not being competitive after their bye? Coincidence? A statistical anomaly? Please).

Well, yes, he may well have meant that. But not because the bye has some magical, mystical losing quality. But because he knows the dees had gone hard on the track to get their foundation down for September.

Which, speaking of Scott, is exactly what he was talking about this time last year when talking about the training program, ours, they had adopted. Scott said if their training program meant they lost games they otherwise might have won, and didn't make the 8 as a result, then so be it - it was a risk worth taking because going hard now is the only way to have a realistic chance of winning the flag.

Those comments apply to us - and all other contenders for that matter.

Some might push back and say, well you can't win the flag if you don't finish top 4. And that is true (save an outlier result). But it is a calculated gamble. We are no risk of not making the 8, but we could drop out of the top 4.

But like Scott's calculation, it is about the best chance of winning a flag not finishing top 4 (by the by, @Stu made an interesting point in the podcast chat room wondering if Hinkley has eschewed loading to the extent other clubs have to maximise their chance of winning individual games and shore up his position).

And when assessing the risk, they will have looked at the ladder and our fixture and landed on it being very likely we finish the home and away season top 4. In fact, I'm tipping we won't drop out of the top 4 at point for the rest of the season (we can't go drop out this week thanks to our percentage). 

[layzie 29,087]

1 hour ago, Superunknown said:

I played 9 holes at Royal Lismore before work this morning and shot 36 so that perked me up a bit. Recommend finding something. Not alcohol!

Nice one mate! What kind of clubs are you rocking?

[Macca 16,173]

58 minutes ago, YearOfTheDees said:

Smith does lead and is ignored for some reason. Noticed during the Kings Birthday game he was getting clear but they still kicked to a pack.

Maybe they don't trust him yet or maybe Smith leading was too much of a shock for them!!

I'm not being serious as that is a good observation of yours. 

Our midfielders do spray it forward a bit but again, all our forwards small and tall should be making multiple leads on a constant basis

The bit I observe is that our forwards don't anticipate the ball coming in ... often left flat-footed

Oh for the days of Neitz, Schwartz, Farmer & Robbo

 They'd be handy now

[gregdemon 538]

5 hours ago, chook fowler said:

Very poor games by Max, Gus, Fritsch, Chandler, Petty, JJ and ANB. I can’t understand not playing Tomlinson or Bowza. I can’t see us being a top 4 side.

I would be amazed to make top 4 now    (freo and Port loss cost us)     Never expect to win at kat litter park but we should have last night given our postion at 3 quarter time   SHATTERED!!!  max is shocking in wet  do not play him in rain.  God we need Oliver back quick !!!!!!!!    

[The heart beats true 16,331]

4 minutes ago, binman said:

@Stu made an interesting point in the podcast chat room wondering if Hinkley has eschewed loading to the extent other clubs have to maximise their chance of winning individual games and shore up his position).

I’ve wondered this too. Kenny needs wins, but 28 weeks of football is a long time to be up.

[gregdemon 538]

any chance of a few decent  centre clearances.  never seems to happen

[buck_nekkid 5,508]

4 minutes ago, Macca said:

Maybe they don't trust him yet or maybe Smith leading was too much of a shock for them!!

I'm not being serious as that is a good observation of yours. 

Our midfielders do spray it forward a bit but again, all our forwards small and tall should be making multiple leads on a constant basis

The bit I observe is that our forwards don't anticipate the ball coming in ... often left flat-footed

Oh for the days of Neitz, Schwartz, Farmer & Robbo

 They'd be handy now

Often times we look for a deeper option, so the closer option can become a defender as we roll up the ground if there is a turnover. We often kick over a leading player to a deeper contest (it frustrates me to bits) but maybe that is the team rule?

[layzie 29,087]

4 minutes ago, binman said:

I'm going to avoid DL for a few days, and footy media too, because it will just irritate me as there will be little, if any consideration of the single most important factor in the loss - fatigue as result of a heavy block of training. 

If the fatigue from loading is not factored in, any related analysis is of little value to be honest.

I said ahead of the game that a win would be a bonus. Predicted a loss actually. And the game played out exactly as i expected it would. 

I haven't listened to Goody's presser yet, but if he said the effort was good, i'd agree.

The effort was really good in the last q too. Why?

Because the players were so obviously completely out of gas. Look at the drop off in any relevant stat to see evidence of that - CPs, inside 50, time in forward half, kms run etc etc. 

But perhaps the most compelling indicator of the impact of fatigue is the pressure ratings, and our incredible drop off in the last quarter (180 is considered AFL average, and 200 elite):

Team pressure

Quarter	For	Against
1	183	206
2	224	175
3	214	197
4	163	204
Match	196	196

To only lose by 15 in the end was a really gutsy performance.

Compare it to the capitulation by Lions (v Hawks) in their post-match bye when fatigue was also clearly the most critical factor or Freo's shellacking by Giants last week, when fatigue was again the key factor, as it was in their post bye loss to the tigers).

Or perhaps a more direct example. 

Like us last night, the Cats were coming of their bye last week against Port. Meaning, the Cats (who acknowledged last year they copied our approach to loading) had just completed a block of heavy training and were fatigued as a result. 

Halfway through the second q the Cats had a 20-point lead and were playing a tough, physical brand of football. They started to fade after that point but got to half time with a 7-point lead.

In the second half the Cats completely ran out of gas. 

After half time Port:

• outscored the Cats by 45 points (11.6.72 to 4.3.27)
• smashed the Cats at stoppages 26 to 9 
• scored 6.1.37 to 1.0.6 from stoppages (31 points more from stoppages in a half of footy is nuts - it is only 7 points less than the final margin).

Ultimately, after leading at half time, the Cats, who unsurprisingly ran out the game better than us last night, capitulated and ended up losing by six plus goals (38 points).

Like the Cats, Lions and Freo, we had zero run in the legs and so could not spread or run in waves to create separation, options up or properly cover the Cats' spread. 

But unlike the Cats, Lions and Freo we kept grinding and fought hard for every contest.

What do people think Scott meant when he said ahead of the game that this was a 'good time' to play the dees?

Perhaps some might say he was referencing the bye (because surprise, surprise, every team has lost after the bye, bar the Saints, who beat the Swans - who were coming off a bye. I mean really, what do people think is the cause of teams not being competitive after their bye? Coincidence? A statistical anomaly? Please).

Well, yes, he may well have meant that. But not because the bye has some magical, mystical losing quality. But because he knows the dees had gone hard on the track to get their foundation down for September.

Which, speaking of Scott, is exactly what he was talking about this time last year when talking about the training program, ours, they had adopted. Scott said if their training program meant they lost games they otherwise might have won, and didn't make the 8 as a result, then so be it - it was a risk worth taking because going hard now is the only way to have a realistic chance of winning the flag.

Those comments apply to us - and all other contenders for that matter.

Some might push back and say, well you can't win the flag if you don't finish top 4. And that is true (save an outlier result). But it is a calculated gamble. We are no risk of not making the 8, but we could drop out of the top 4.

But like Scott's calculation, it is about the best chance of winning a flag not finishing top 4 (by the by, @Stu made an interesting point in the podcast chat room wondering if Hinkley has eschewed loading to the extent other clubs have to maximise their chance of winning individual games and shore up his position).

And when assessing the risk, they will have looked at the ladder and our fixture and landed on it being very likely we finish the home and away season top 4. In fact, I'm tipping we won't drop out of the top 4 at point for the rest of the season (we can't go drop out this week thanks to our percentage). 

That's a massive drop off in the last quarter for team pressure... We really needed a 2 or 3 goal lead minimum at 3QT to be a chance judging on that. It makes sense though, combined with the wet ground which couldn't have helped. 

You only had to look at the way May chased Rohan on the open goal. Rohan was always going to win it but May looked like he was running on fumes.

I'm seeing fewer coincidences than I used to in these games. Would be interesting to see how we'd go at Geelong in rounds early or late in the season, like Round 23 for instance 😉 

 

 

 

[Macca 16,173]

7 minutes ago, buck_nekkid said:

Often times we look for a deeper option, so the closer option can become a defender as we roll up the ground if there is a turnover. We often kick over a leading player to a deeper contest (it frustrates me to bits) but maybe that is the team rule?

Good points

I also reckon that certain teams know what our Achilles heel is so they flood back even more or force us wide on entries (or both)

They know our defence is stellar and our midfield is very good but they pressure our midfielders with our inside 50 entries knowing that our forwards don't work hard enough