On 22/03/2023 at 00:50, binman said:

The question i'd have if i was lions fan is why in the heck are they still running a 2010 style defensive system. 

I might also ask why they didn't address their lack of leg speed - which we ruthlessly exploit when up and about (and are even better placed to exploit this season because Kozzie is playing more mid time, so is around the ball more and we have added mcvee and Chadler who are both quick and Hunt, whilst not super quick over the first 5 metres seems to have good cruising speed. Added to that bowser looks even quicker than he was, and the team all look super fit) 

Old habits die hard. I assume you mean Hunter.

  On 22/03/2023 at 00:59, Orion said:

Danhiher has been a bit disappointing for them.  I think they were expecting more.

Mastery of the understatement.

He's going at a tick under 2 goals a game for the Lions, which taken as an isolated fact is pretty good, but he was supposed to transform their attacking game.

Last season was kept just outside the top-40 for contested marks/game (kept out by Harrison Petty, I'll note), and not even in the top 200 for marks.

Instead of being a dynamic forward target that creates chances, he is just consuming their forward 50 entries for a basically adequate result.

Daniher had 5.26 score involvements per game, of which 3.3 were individual scores (2 goals, 1.3 behinds)

Hawkins had 8.7 score involvements of which 4.4 were individual scores (2.7 goals, 1.7 behinds)

So Hawkins, the benchmark for team-oriented key forwards, generates double the scoring activity for teammates than that of Daniher who is probably on similar money.

  On 21/03/2023 at 21:58, Sydee said:

I'm always confident when he lines up for the opposition - was shattered when he was a late withdrawal for the SF last year.

  On 22/03/2023 at 00:59, Orion said:

Danhiher has been a bit disappointing for them.  I think they were expecting more.

Ever since he started at AFL level, everyone has been expecting more!

 

  On 22/03/2023 at 01:32, Dr. Gonzo said:

I'm always confident when he lines up for the opposition - was shattered when he was a late withdrawal for the SF last year.

Even though we were all on our last legs, I swear to this day we would have won that game if he had played. The small forward set up won it for them.

  On 22/03/2023 at 01:32, Dr. Gonzo said:

I'm always confident when he lines up for the opposition - was shattered when he was a late withdrawal for the SF last year.

Same here, love playing against Joey Joe Joe. 

There's a lot of confidence on here, and well there should be. We were cooked in the SF. The two H&A games are better indicators of our chances this week IMO.

But there's a touch too much confidence. Hipwood has a history of playing well against us. The Lions mids aren't going to all be sub-20 touches again like they were against Port. Their midfield presents a similar challenge to the Dogs' midfield and at times last week the Dogs were on top. And this time there is a more dynamic forward line, not the Dogs' over-sized and pressure-lacking options.

  On 22/03/2023 at 01:30, Little Goffy said:

niher had 5.26 score involvements per game, of which 3.3 were individual scores (2 goals, 1.3 behinds)

Hawkins had 8.7 score involvements of which 4.4 were individual scores (2.7 goals, 1.7 behinds)

So Hawkins, the benchmark for team-oriented key forwards, generates double the scoring activity for teammates than that of Daniher who is probably on similar money.

I really appreciate that analysis, that's a good lens to look at a players output and inclusivity.

  On 22/03/2023 at 02:50, titan_uranus said:

There's a lot of confidence on here, and well there should be. We were cooked in the SF. The two H&A games are better indicators of our chances this week IMO.

But there's a touch too much confidence. Hipwood has a history of playing well against us. The Lions mids aren't going to all be sub-20 touches again like they were against Port. Their midfield presents a similar challenge to the Dogs' midfield and at times last week the Dogs were on top. And this time there is a more dynamic forward line, not the Dogs' over-sized and pressure-lacking options.

Some of the confidence here is likely a reflection of the last game we played - an easy win over opposition that most think will be a finalist

Just like their fans are possibly too pessimistic after a disappointing effort/result last week.

The reality I'm sure lies somewhere in between - this competition is very even and like Goodwin says over and over (and I agree) you must respect your opposition. Fall away a few % and you will likely lose the game.

Brisbane are better than what they dished up last round and at home in front of their fans they will be no easy beats we can be sure of that. 

  On 22/03/2023 at 02:50, titan_uranus said:

There's a lot of confidence on here, and well there should be. We were cooked in the SF. The two H&A games are better indicators of our chances this week IMO.

But there's a touch too much confidence. Hipwood has a history of playing well against us. The Lions mids aren't going to all be sub-20 touches again like they were against Port. Their midfield presents a similar challenge to the Dogs' midfield and at times last week the Dogs were on top. And this time there is a more dynamic forward line, not the Dogs' over-sized and pressure-lacking options.

I agree with you.

Brisbane are a better side than the Dogs, and I rate their medium and small forwards as some of the best in the league. While their midfield is a bit one dimensional, it is still a very strong contested midfield, and without the pace of Kosi it makes us more vulnerable. 

This won't be an easy game, but we are a better side than they are and we should win this if we play at our best. 

  On 22/03/2023 at 01:30, Little Goffy said:

Mastery of the understatement.

He's going at a tick under 2 goals a game for the Lions, which taken as an isolated fact is pretty good, but he was supposed to transform their attacking game.

Last season was kept just outside the top-40 for contested marks/game (kept out by Harrison Petty, I'll note), and not even in the top 200 for marks.

Instead of being a dynamic forward target that creates chances, he is just consuming their forward 50 entries for a basically adequate result.

Daniher had 5.26 score involvements per game, of which 3.3 were individual scores (2 goals, 1.3 behinds)

Hawkins had 8.7 score involvements of which 4.4 were individual scores (2.7 goals, 1.7 behinds)

So Hawkins, the benchmark for team-oriented key forwards, generates double the scoring activity for teammates than that of Daniher who is probably on similar money.

Hawkins plays for free more or less this year. Under 300k was speculated.  If true, he's the reason why Geelong seems to have so much cap space

   

  On 22/03/2023 at 02:50, titan_uranus said:

There's a lot of confidence on here, and well there should be. We were cooked in the SF. The two H&A games are better indicators of our chances this week IMO.

But there's a touch too much confidence. Hipwood has a history of playing well against us. The Lions mids aren't going to all be sub-20 touches again like they were against Port. Their midfield presents a similar challenge to the Dogs' midfield and at times last week the Dogs were on top. And this time there is a more dynamic forward line, not the Dogs' over-sized and pressure-lacking options.

Gawn, Petracca and Oliver are all flying at the moment and we are 39.5 wins and 12.5 losses in our last 52 matches. The Lions are a tough ask at the Gabba but we are great on the road. We should be confident that our best will beat any team except maybe Geelong.

  On 22/03/2023 at 02:50, titan_uranus said:

There's a lot of confidence on here, and well there should be. We were cooked in the SF. The two H&A games are better indicators of our chances this week IMO.

But there's a touch too much confidence. Hipwood has a history of playing well against us. The Lions mids aren't going to all be sub-20 touches again like they were against Port. Their midfield presents a similar challenge to the Dogs' midfield and at times last week the Dogs were on top. And this time there is a more dynamic forward line, not the Dogs' over-sized and pressure-lacking options.

Taking that on board, I'm changing my final margin from 15 goals back down to 10 goals.

  On 22/03/2023 at 02:50, titan_uranus said:

There's a lot of confidence on here, and well there should be. We were cooked in the SF. The two H&A games are better indicators of our chances this week IMO.

But there's a touch too much confidence. Hipwood has a history of playing well against us. The Lions mids aren't going to all be sub-20 touches again like they were against Port. Their midfield presents a similar challenge to the Dogs' midfield and at times last week the Dogs were on top. And this time there is a more dynamic forward line, not the Dogs' over-sized and pressure-lacking options.

Definitely. I think a lot of people see them as our bunny, which is fine but treat with caution. This midfield is going to be a tough test and if we are even 5% off their forwards will score on us. Plenty for our coaches to think about. 

  On 22/03/2023 at 03:51, Fat Tony said:

We should be confident that our best will beat any team except maybe Geelong.

Our best beats Geelong

Hoping there are no motorbikes, country roads or that song from Frozen Joey must like.

  On 22/03/2023 at 00:53, WalkingCivilWar said:

Likewise with Jarrod Berry. Will never forget Zorko and Berry’s disgusting treatment of our Harry P. 

Both have very little between the ears

  On 22/03/2023 at 03:19, Jjrogan said:

Hawkins plays for free more or less this year. Under 300k was speculated.  If true, he's the reason why Geelong seems to have so much cap space

   

bet he got a good real estate deal and a high paying job lined up for next year. he's not a charity, just flexible

  On 22/03/2023 at 00:50, binman said:

The question i'd have if i was lions fan is why in the heck are they still running a 2010 style defensive system. 

I might also ask why they didn't address their lack of leg speed - which we ruthlessly exploit when up and about (and are even better placed to exploit this season because Kozzie is playing more mid time, so is around the ball more and we have added mcvee and Chadler who are both quick and Hunter, whilst not super quick over the first 5 metres seems to have good cruising speed. Added to that bowser looks even quicker than he was, and the team all look super fit) 

Brisbane's backline doesn't scare me one little bit. Just a bunch of loose zoning and relying on Rich to distribute out of there. 

  On 22/03/2023 at 02:50, titan_uranus said:

 

But there's a touch too much confidence. Hipwood has a history of playing well against us

On sen thismorning garry and tim discussed a stat thelooks at all players over the past 7 years that have played 100 games plus in that period.

Hipwood was rated last of a big list. They discussed moving him to defence as he ain't a forward

I’ll be there flying the flag for the Mighty Dee’s.  I’ll be fascinated at the crowd number, with the broncos vs Dolphins being playing up the road (is a sell out), a lot of people choose the Broncs over Lions.

I think we will get a big target on our back this after we dispose of the Lions. Herald Sun will come for us hard, as will Caro and Kane, all will be looking for a chink in the armour. That said most Lions supporters are pretty realistic about their team and others, not nearly as annoying as some. Just quietly (not) I tipped them to slide, also had Freo on the out, so this is the week where I get to be Nostradamus or a fraud.

 

It's the same Lions as last year less some of the players that provided some bite. They hold no fears for us whatsoever. I can't see us being complacent. We haven't gotten ahead of ourselves for a long time. Our drop offs last year were due to injuries and fatigue.  If we perform, we win. 

Dees by 5 goals

  On 22/03/2023 at 07:26, Demon17 said:

On sen thismorning garry and tim discussed a stat thelooks at all players over the past 7 years that have played 100 games plus in that period.

Hipwood was rated last of a big list. They discussed moving him to defence as he ain't a forward

They stole that from the Champion Data bloke that went on Sportsday with Gerard and Kane the night before.
 

Crazy stat. Such a front runner.

  On 22/03/2023 at 01:32, Dr. Gonzo said:

I'm always confident when he lines up for the opposition - was shattered when he was a late withdrawal for the SF last year.

His goals are rarely clutch, always seem irrelevant to the momentum of the game.