Phantom Drafts Thread 2022

[Nascent]

6 hours ago, old55 said:

I doubt very much that Essendon will give us F1st (5-10) + 22 + 54 for 13 + 37. It's bad for them at every point.

I recognise it's a highly unrealistic hypothetical, particularly with the apparent discrepancy between this draft and next years, but I don't think its a horrible deal.

Off the premise that an early bid comes in for Davey, their pick 22 will get swallowed regardless and they will move it on in some shape or form. Now they will probably field plenty of offers for 22 to help generate points for Davey, but currently as it sits essendon will consider whether they want to have a draft haul of...

Pick 4

Davey f/s (with picks 22, 54, 62 etc all used to match).

Vs

Pick 4

Pick 13

Davey f/s (with 37 helping to keep their later picks intact).

Now a future first is a high price to pay but, unless you're Gold Coast, trading current first round picks demands a high premium and "overs" to come from the buyer to get it done. Consider any of our future pick swaps as a good example, both when we were bottom 4 and top 4.

Essentially they are just moving their first from next year into this year to get ahead of the davey bid and bring in another talent one year earlier for development. 

The sticking point will be their anticipated finishing position next year. Essendon may have a more realistic view of themselves now, but a hubris exists in that club and it wouldn't half surprise if they fancied themselves as a top 8 team. Another sticking point could be the bombers not rating the talent around pick 13.

Further balances may need to happen to make it more palatable for the bombers, say 1 or 2 x future 2nd round picks. That gives the bombers extra currency for next year to cushion the blow of not having a future first while we will walk away with 3 x f1s. 

Edited November 3, 2022 by Nascent

[Matt]

Pommy in Oz just did his mock draft, with a couple of other guys..

For some reason the video starts at pick 9. They have us taking Jefferson with our 1st pick.

Edited November 4, 2022 by Matt

[Matt]

Not so sure about this Phantom Draft though

https://www.sportingnews.com/au/amp/afl/news/afl-phantom-draft-2022-clubs-battle-lands-best-football-talent/aib9ptno3tl6ef4klnddiznz

[Bay Riffin]

On 11/2/2022 at 12:18 AM, Matt said:

I was looking through past phantom form guides by Cal, and came across the November one, which features Dogga at 11, Rivers at 23, and Pickett at 30.

Considering we haven’t even reached Cal’s November phantom form guide this year, it just really shows how unpredictable drafting can be.

And yes, I am aware Cal isn’t predicting who will go where, I just found it interesting.

https://www.westernbulldogs.com.au/news/308766/cal-twomeys-2019-phantom-form-guide-november-update

interesting. He had Jackson and Pickett wrong (especially pickett rated at 30) but overall what eventauted was the cream is at the top. Its pretty decent. 

[Matt]

1 hour ago, Bay Riffin said:

interesting. He had Jackson and Pickett wrong (especially pickett rated at 30) but overall what eventauted was the cream is at the top. Its pretty decent. 

Despite where he had Jackson & Pickett, Cal is still the most accurate person, when it comes to the draft.

Edited November 6, 2022 by Matt

[old55]

Mofra is always a good read on Big Footy:

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/mofras-cynical-and-ill-thought-out-mock-draft-top-25.1337832/

[Roger Mellie]

Another Big Footy phantom draft. This dude has all the top WA prospects miraculously landing at West Coast, which is coincidentally, the team he supports:

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/getgaff-2022-phantom-draft.1337694/

Some of his other detail is OK though

[Nascent]

LISTEN: Who goes where? AFL.com.au's Mock Draft for 2022 - https://www.afl.com.au/news/866012

Haven't listened to this yet but this is a podcast where Cal Twomey, Nat Edwards and Kevin Sheehan do a mock draft where they select players based on their own thoughts on draftees and club needs. Not to be confused with Cals phantom draft which has more intel on how the draft might actually pan out.

[Lucifers Hero]

24 minutes ago, Nascent said:

LISTEN: Who goes where? AFL.com.au's Mock Draft for 2022 - https://www.afl.com.au/news/866012

Haven't listened to this yet but this is a podcast where Cal Twomey, Nat Edwards and Kevin Sheehan do a mock draft where they select players based on their own thoughts on draftees and club needs. Not to be confused with Cals phantom draft which has more intel on how the draft might actually pan out.

Thanks for that.  I listened up to our pick #13.

'Shifter' had Jefferson going to WCE in the pick before ours to replace Kennedy.

Toomey then said he would have taken Jefferson if on the board but will go for Allen.

Edited November 15, 2022 by Lucifers Hero

[durango]

According to Sheehan WC will pick Matthew Jefferson and according to Twomey the MFC will pick Ed Allan with pick 13/14.

[Nascent]

Cal and Kevin's mock draft

 

1. Gws - Aaron Cadman

2. Bris  - Will Ashcroft (f/s)

3. Nth   - George Wardlaw

4. Nth   - Harry Sheezel

5. Ess   - Elijah Tsatas

6. GC    - Reuben Ginbey

7. Haw  - Mattaes Phillipou

8. Gee   - Bailey Humphrey

9. WC    - Jhye Clark

10. Stk  - Cam McKenzie

11. Car  - Elijah Hewitt

12. WB  - Jedd Busslinger

13. WC  - Matthew Jefferson

14. Mel  - Ed Allan 

15. Syd  - Olli Hollands

16. Gws - Lewis Hayes

17. Bri    - Jaspa Fletcher (f/s)

18. Coll  - Oli Hotton

19. Syd  - Harry Barnett

20. Gws - Jacob Konstanty

21. Gws - Lachie Cowan

22. WC   - Jakob Ryan

23. Gws  - Harry Rowston (Academy)

24. WB   - Brayden George

25. Ess   - Josh Weddle

26. Ess  - Alwyn Davey (f/s)

27. Nth  - Coby Burgiel

28. Haw - Henry Hustwaite

29. Adel - Max Michaelanny (f/s)

30. Coll  - Max Gruzewski

Edited November 15, 2022 by Nascent

[Matt]

35 minutes ago, durango said:

According to Sheehan WC will pick Matthew Jefferson and according to Twomey the MFC will pick Ed Allan with pick 13/14.

IMO Sheehan’s picks often seem to be a bit off, in these drafts

[Lucifers Hero]

19 minutes ago, Nascent said:

Cal and Kevin's mock draft

 

1. Gws - Aaron Cadman

2. Bris  - Will Ashcroft (f/s)

3. Nth   - Georg Wardlaw

4. Nth   - Harry Sheezel

5. Ess   - Elijah Tsatas

6. GC    - Reuben Ginbey

7. Haw  - Mattaes Phillipou

8. Gee   - Bailey Humphrey

9. WC    - Jhye Clark

10. Stk  - Cam McKenzie

11. Car  - Elijah Hewitt

12. WB  - Jedd Busslinger

13. WC  - Matthew Jefferson

14. Mel  - Ed Allen 

15. Syd  - Olli Hollands

16. Gws - Lewis Hayes

17. Bri    - Jaspa Fletcher (f/s)

18. Coll  - Oli Hotton

19. Syd  - Harry Barnett

20. Gws - Jacob Konstanty

21. Gws - Lachie Cowan

22. WC   - Jakob Ryan

23. Gws  - Harry Rowston (Academy)

24. WB   - Brayden George

25. Ess   - Josh Weddle

26. Ess  - Alwyn Davey (f/s)

27. Nth  - Coby Burgiel

28. Haw - Henry Hustwaite

29. Adel - Max Michaelanny (f/s)

30. Coll  - Max Gruzewski

Based on those 'selections' our #37 nominally goes out to #42.  Lions might have to use all their #30+ picks to get Ashcroft.  So our pick might come back in a bit.   

Sub #40 is not where JT likes to draft from...

Those selections suggest the Lions will be desperately short of points.  Will have to dip into 2023/swap some 2023 picks for 2022

[DeeZone]

On 11/9/2022 at 8:30 AM, Roger Mellie said:

Another Big Footy phantom draft. This dude has all the top WA prospects miraculously landing at West Coast, which is coincidentally, the team he supports:

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/getgaff-2022-phantom-draft.1337694/

Some of his other detail is OK though

We take Nick Sadler at 37? Haven’t seen his name linked to us before.

[Lucifers Hero]

In his podcast Twomey with Nat Edwards, he said Jefferson hasn't been invited to the first night of the draft so is unlikely to go in the first dozen.

He also mentioned it is unlikely there will be swaps involving top 10 or even first round picks.

Edited November 15, 2022 by Lucifers Hero

[Matt]

2 hours ago, Nascent said:

Cal and Kevin's mock draft

 

1. Gws - Aaron Cadman

2. Bris  - Will Ashcroft (f/s)

3. Nth   - George Wardlaw

4. Nth   - Harry Sheezel

5. Ess   - Elijah Tsatas

6. GC    - Reuben Ginbey

7. Haw  - Mattaes Phillipou

8. Gee   - Bailey Humphrey

9. WC    - Jhye Clark

10. Stk  - Cam McKenzie

11. Car  - Elijah Hewitt

12. WB  - Jedd Busslinger

13. WC  - Matthew Jefferson

14. Mel  - Ed Allen 

15. Syd  - Olli Hollands

16. Gws - Lewis Hayes

17. Bri    - Jaspa Fletcher (f/s)

18. Coll  - Oli Hotton

19. Syd  - Harry Barnett

20. Gws - Jacob Konstanty

21. Gws - Lachie Cowan

22. WC   - Jakob Ryan

23. Gws  - Harry Rowston (Academy)

24. WB   - Brayden George

25. Ess   - Josh Weddle

26. Ess  - Alwyn Davey (f/s)

27. Nth  - Coby Burgiel

28. Haw - Henry Hustwaite

29. Adel - Max Michaelanny (f/s)

30. Coll  - Max Gruzewski

I doubt Jefferson or Allan would get selected before Hollands

[Chelly]

2 hours ago, Lucifers Hero said:

In his podcast Twomey with Nat Edwards, he said Jefferson hasn't been invited to the first night of the draft so is unlikely to go in the first dozen.

He also mentioned it is unlikely there will be swaps involving top 10 or even first round picks.

How many players usually get invited to draft night?

[adonski]

Russell Westbrook would be a real Jason Taylor pick you feel 

[Lucifers Hero]

6 minutes ago, Chelly said:

How many players usually get invited to draft night?

I had thought that if a certain number of clubs (3?) ask the AFL to invite a player to the first night (ie round one) they would be invited. But that could have changed post covid.  Twomey would be more up to date than yours truly.

His comment on Jefferson suggests there hasn't been enough high level interest whichever way the AFL determines the invitees.

Not sure about night 2.

Edited November 15, 2022 by Lucifers Hero

[dazzledavey36]

14 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

I had thought that if a certain number of clubs (3?) ask the AFL to invite a player to the first night (ie round one) they would be invited. But that could have changed post covid.  Twomey would be more up to date than yours truly.

His comment on Jefferson suggests there hasn't been enough high level interest whichever way the AFL determines the invitees.

Not sure about night 2.

Also shows that maybe Jefferson isn't in our sights at all as some mock drafts claim to be.

[Pennant St Dee]

6 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Also shows that maybe Jefferson isn't in our sights at all as some mock drafts claim to be.

West Coast took Jack Williams as Kennedy’s long term replacement, so can’t see them or us taking Jefferson.

On another note and in keeping with our forwards.  I had to drop into the Claremont football Club today, JVR was in the gym doing some conditioning, they started introducing him to me. I said mate lifelong Demon, you don’t need to  tell me who this bloke is. Shook his hand and wished him luck for the season ahead.

[Roger Mellie]

25 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

I had thought that if a certain number of clubs (3?) ask the AFL to invite a player to the first night (ie round one) they would be invited. But that could have changed post covid.  Twomey would be more up to date than yours truly.

His comment on Jefferson suggests there hasn't been enough high level interest whichever way the AFL determines the invitees.

Not sure about night 2.

I listened to a little of that and got the impression Jefferson wasn't coming as he was unlikely to be in the first dozen selected (the criteria for an invite as guessed by the AFL). Further Twomey pretty much confirmed no one had any idea what we were doing with pick 14 and many just presumed we'd go for a tall forward because Jackson left.

[Redleg]

How many picks are they doing on the first night?

[Matt]

29 minutes ago, Redleg said:

How many picks are they doing on the first night?

However many picks the 1st round is. The rest are done the next night.

Edited November 15, 2022 by Matt

[DeeZone]

10 hours ago, Redleg said:

How many picks are they doing on the first night?

I think it is Top 10?