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Trading draft picks

Lucifers Hero
in Melbourne Demons

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My uneducated two penn'orth: For a team already demonstrably very good, how likely is it that one player - actually, less than one, being only the difference between that player and the pick 13 player - will make the difference between a premiership or not, or even in final ladder position? Whereas a generational 2023-draft group would forge their careers together - 'the whole is greater than the parts' - as our current one is (and it'd overlap nicely with that current group, too 🙂)

And there's such expectation on unicorns, whereas a group of mere thoroughbreds will share that load.

Unlike me to stick my head up on an actual footy discussion...

Edited by Timothy Reddan-A'Blew
Added horsey metaphor

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    I can't wait to experience (endure?) the excitement of somebody trading pick 43 and 27 for pick 21 over the coming weeks.

    I really hope we just take our two picks this year and preserve our strong hand for next year.

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    1 hour ago, Dwight Schrute said:

    Would they do it for Freo's 2 picks, 13 this year, future first next year? i doubt it, doesn't hurt to ask though

    I think we want to hold onto next year's draft currency given it's meant to be a very good draft, and there are a few KPFs coming out of contract that we might want to lure. A strong hand next year gives us lots of options

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    Always a highlight on the football calendar.

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    3 hours ago, JimmyGadson said:

    I imagine we would have explored moving into the top 5 over the trade period with no buyers. If we can't get a pick to nab Cadman, Wardlaw, Sheezel or Tsatas then there's no point moving up and giving up a future first rounder or our pick 13 for it imo. 

    After those stand-out names, it's all pretty even which is not the word for next year's crop. 

    Country, SA and WA couldn't compete with Metro this year and the Metro squad alone will make up majority of the top 10 selections this year. It's a thinner crop of uber uber talent and that's widely acknowledged. 

    I hope the club see it this way too and have the goal of getting two picks inside 10 next year. Maybe even one inside 5. 

    Operation get Harley Reid. 

     

     

    I'm with you here with perhaps Ginbey in the clubs sights as well. I expect all to be gone prior to our pick with no club willing to part with an early selection that would allow us to take these players.

    As for next year, I think it's equally important to have strong selections not only for the draft but for trade capital as well. Haven't got across the full list of players that are OOC but 3 that will be are Georgiades, Callaghan and Serong.

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    5 hours ago, Dwight Schrute said:

    Would they do it for Freo's 2 picks, 13 this year, future first next year? i doubt it, doesn't hurt to ask though

    I reckon they would

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    8 hours ago, Supermercado said:

    Always a highlight on the football calendar.

    Well certainly more exciting than the 2022 GF anyway.

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    According to draftguru afl our provisional picks for 2023 based on 2022 finish are:

    13,14,32,33 and 88.

    Obviously will not fall that way but an indication of a good 2023 hand. 

    We will likely lose a player or 2 not getting a regular game who want out so we may pick up enough points to get Kynan Brown without dipping into our starting hand.

    We also have scope to improve our hand by trading a combination of picks.  Its possible we may trade pick(s) for a player.

    If you have not looked at draftguru take a peek - it has some interesting pick/game etc stats.

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    49 minutes ago, manny100 said:

    According to draftguru afl our provisional picks for 2023 based on 2022 finish are:

    13,14,32,33 and 88.

    Obviously will not fall that way but an indication of a good 2023 hand. 

    We will likely lose a player or 2 not getting a regular game who want out so we may pick up enough points to get Kynan Brown without dipping into our starting hand.

    We also have scope to improve our hand by trading a combination of picks.  Its possible we may trade pick(s) for a player.

    If you have not looked at draftguru take a peek - it has some interesting pick/game etc stats.

    image.jpeg.e0b4b81bb219dfe76e8f2a4e6d08429a.jpeg

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    If the player we like is gone by 13 I think we look to move to next years draft. Probably a handful of Cadman's hanging around in that draft. Or if someone we rate inside the top 10 is there, we take them.

     

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    On 10/19/2022 at 8:37 AM, JimmyGadson said:

    I imagine we would have explored moving into the top 5 over the trade period with no buyers. If we can't get a pick to nab Cadman, Wardlaw, Sheezel or Tsatas then there's no point moving up and giving up a future first rounder or our pick 13 for it imo. 

    After those stand-out names, it's all pretty even which is not the word for next year's crop. 

    Country, SA and WA couldn't compete with Metro this year and the Metro squad alone will make up majority of the top 10 selections this year. It's a thinner crop of uber uber talent and that's widely acknowledged. 

    I hope the club see it this way too and have the goal of getting two picks inside 10 next year. Maybe even one inside 5. 

    Operation get Harley Reid. 

     

     


    This attitude is precisely my point. Unless we finish on the bottom, or miraculously end up with a draft pick haul large enough to trade for a top 3 pick (likely top 1), we ain’t getting Reid.

    It took the injury season from hell for us to end up with the pick 3 for Jackson.

    It’s all fantasy stuff, but let the other clubs enjoy having their imaginations run wild with long long shots - I think there is still some horse trading of picks to be done now that the players have all moved, and I think we’ll be aiming to climb the order.

    My guess at the target: Phillipou.

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    4 minutes ago, Mach5 said:


    This attitude is precisely my point. Unless we finish on the bottom, or miraculously end up with a draft pick haul large enough to trade for a top 3 pick (likely top 1), we ain’t getting Reid.

    It took the injury season from hell for us to end up with the pick 3 for Jackson.

    It’s all fantasy stuff, but let the other clubs enjoy having their imaginations run wild with long long shots - I think there is still some horse trading of picks to be done now that the players have all moved, and I think we’ll be aiming to climb the order.

    My guess at the target: Phillipou.

    I tend to agree with you. I think some posters are overrating our draft hand next year. Let’s all hope Freo fall down the ladder and their future pick will be inside the top 10. But they have a very good core of young players that will only improve. 
    There’s every chance that our draft hand next year will only be a late second rounder better than what Sydney (14,17 and 42) is this year. Nobody is raving about the great draft position Sydney is in this year. 
    It all depends on how JT rates the talent in this draft but I’d be surprised if we don’t at least improve our second pick this year. 

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    The challenge for DL today and from now on is when floating the idea of hanging onto future picks or potentially trading for more, to present an idea that extends a bit beyond the simple opinion that 'next year's draft is meant to be strong'. 🙂

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    A lot will depend on how Kynan Brown goes next year and where he is expected to fall in the draft.

    Gold Coast also have a gun key forward academy selection I believe next year, so they may look to trade back for points.

    Say for example Gold Coast finish 12th again and have pick 7 and both us and freo finish 2nd and 5th (picks 14 and 17). We may look to swap those with Gold Coast (plus maybe some other swaps), if we expect Kynan to be around that range. 

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    I also don't mind the idea of keeping both 1st rounders next year in case a King from gold coast wanted to come back to melbourne etc. Be a good hand to tempt the trade etc.

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    On 10/19/2022 at 8:28 PM, manny100 said:

    According to draftguru afl our provisional picks for 2023 based on 2022 finish are:

    13,14,32,33 and 88.

    Obviously will not fall that way but an indication of a good 2023 hand. 

    We will likely lose a player or 2 not getting a regular game who want out so we may pick up enough points to get Kynan Brown without dipping into our starting hand.

    We also have scope to improve our hand by trading a combination of picks.  Its possible we may trade pick(s) for a player.

    If you have not looked at draftguru take a peek - it has some interesting pick/game etc stats.

    Four of the top 30 next year in a “strong draft”

    Work on trying to improve that

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    On 10/19/2022 at 4:13 AM, Jaded No More said:

    I think we want to hold onto next year's draft currency given it's meant to be a very good draft, and there are a few KPFs coming out of contract that we might want to lure. A strong hand next year gives us lots of options

    I wonder if we can leverage another teams delusion about next year into swapping pick 13 for a Future First and potential top 10 pick next year? Perhaps Ross Lyon thinks he can turn the Saints into a contender next year and our Pick 13 this year helps him 'add another piece' around what he's got. We can fast track his quick exit out of the game if we win that trade! Hinkley, Beveridge, MacCrae and next years fixture - we have a whole host of coaches and a media that are overrating lists for next season. It's low risk high reward, considering pick 13 won't affect our premiership tilt next season.

    Edited by John Demonic

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    8 minutes ago, John Demonic said:

    I wonder if we can leverage another teams delusion about next year into swapping pick 13 for a Future First and potential top 10 pick next year? Perhaps Ross Lyon thinks he can turn the Saints into a contender next year and our Pick 13 this year helps him 'add another piece' around what he's got. We can fast track his quick exit out of the game if we win that trade! Hinkley, Beveridge, MacCrae and next years fixture - we have a whole host of coaches and a media that are overrating lists for next season. It's low risk high reward, considering pick 13 won't affect our premiership tilt next season.

    Let’s not get too cocky. 

    We should be aiming to improve our list every year and given we gave virtually nobody new a chance to play AFL this year, it might be a risky strategy going forward.

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    19 minutes ago, Elwood 3184 said:

    Let’s not get too cocky. 

    We should be aiming to improve our list every year and given we gave virtually nobody new a chance to play AFL this year, it might be a risky strategy going forward.

    I guess it depends on who's available when it comes to our pick on draft night - if there is a player we've got our eye on then it would make sense that drafting him and getting a year into him would be preferable to gambling for next years pick. But if nobody, then I'd take that risk, knowing we already have an influx of new recruits and 3-4 players earmarked to push for selection from the VFL - which I don't think we've had for quite a few years. 

    Edited by John Demonic

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    On 10/19/2022 at 12:44 AM, Timothy Reddan-A'Blew said:

    My uneducated two penn'orth: For a team already demonstrably very good, how likely is it that one player - actually, less than one, being only the difference between that player and the pick 13 player - will make the difference between a premiership or not, or even in final ladder position? Whereas a generational 2023-draft group would forge their careers together - 'the whole is greater than the parts' - as our current one is (and it'd overlap nicely with that current group, too 🙂)

    And there's such expectation on unicorns, whereas a group of mere thoroughbreds will share that load.

    Unlike me to stick my head up on an actual footy discussion...

    My equally uneducated position is that both are needed, but super talent is hardest to attain.

    I like your generational draft group, but the current group haven’t fully succeeded on their potential - the absolute cream of young talent should compliment them rather than looking too far ahead.

    I’m guessing we’ll over pay for a top 10 selection in this draft. Everyone will go nuts but we’ll find another star.

    13 + F1 + Freo F1 for Nth pick 3

    Edited by No10
    Too many words

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    I think all we will do is ‘scout’ the market and be ready for draft night - if someone is available that we really want can we move up and swoop - or move down and still get our target?  Second round draft night is where I think the action will really take place, or if f/s and NGA picks become unexpectedly expensive or cheap.

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