PODCAST: QF Preview vs Sydney

[Its Time for Another 4,084]

I won't be able to listen live tonight. But I am looking forward to listening to the whole pod tomorrow as I am a captive audience from Melbourne to, you guessed, where else for a Dees supporter, Buller. But I assure you I will be back in Melbourne in time for Friday's game. 

Having watched T Mac on the weekend come back in and be pretty effective straight away although a bit underdone does anyone think he might be a sneaky chance to get into the team by the GF assuming we're there. Personally I think it's really unfortunate they have a bye this week which I think probably rules him out as he won't get enough game time to sneak in if injuries opened a spot up. If BB goes down you'd have to consider it though wouldn't you. 

 

[layzie 32,802]

We know about Sydney's small forward threats but I'm thinking in order for the Swans to win they will need to find a tall marking presence who can clunk a few. Sam Reid was this man in Round 12 with 5 marks and 2 inside 50. 

Granted there was no May last time but do you guys also feel we need to be wary of this threat? My attitude is that their smalls are going to score on us, that's fact, but the punch that gets you is often the one you don't see coming especially in finals. 

Edited August 29, 2022 by layzie

[Stu 901]

I have two questions (because I’m greedy):

1. Sydney overcome their contested ball deficiencies by spreading hard from the contest. As we’re great in the contest and can also spread well, how do you see that influencing the swans ability to win first use of the ball?

2. Longmire likes to change up tactics game to game, and appears to have a group that is easy to instruct. How do you see this chop and change style holding up in the heat of finals intensity? 

Thanks for indulging me 😊 

[Singa 224]

There was a question earlier about who takes Heeney. I'm interested in this one too but also who takes Papley. Both of them have the potential to break the game apart and we have struggled against Papley in the past.

Absolutely love the podcast. Can't get enough. Keep up the good work.

[In Harmes Way 7,700]

Sydney ruckman Peter Ladhams just handed a 4 game suspension down to 3 with an early guilty plea for running through Taj Woewodin on Saturday. Leaving a lot for Tom Hickey's plate to manage. You'd think Horse wouldn't be too happy with this.

https://www.news.com.au/sport/afl/sydney-swans-ruckman-peter-ladhams-suspended-for-rough-conduct/news-story/9f396cde57e90eb9a82140b5efc3b2ef

[deanox 9,643]

7 hours ago, Lefty said:

Prediction and Preference time. 

If we lose this week we will be playing the winner of Brisbane and Richmond at the MCG? Who would the panelists prefer to play and why?

If we win this week we go straight into a Prelim and potentially face Geelong, Collingwood, Fremantle or Bulldogs at the G. Who of that quartet would you prefer to face off in a Preliminary Final?

And finally if you could have your pick who would you like to play in a Grand Final?

 

7 hours ago, ElDiablo14 said:

Easy answer IMO, Brisbane and Freo

I think that Sydney, Collingwood and Geelong are the only teams we haven't beaten this year. 

It's quite possible that those three will be the three we come up against.

Edited August 29, 2022 by deanox

[Spargonicus 534]

I’d like some discussion on why some teams “match up” well against other teams…Sydney and Collingwood have great records against us lately…how can this be? 

How could Norf beat us 20 times in a row? (Admittedly during the Great Deepression)

How can we have the Lions’ measure?

Surely the personnel shift too much year to year to be a true ‘match up’ thing. Does it speak more of the mental side of sport? (Which is huge)

Binman often criticizes people ignoring loading in favour of ‘mental weakness’, but surely the mental side of things is quite a significant factor…is it game style match ups? Eg Lions play ultra attacking, we’re built for defense first - so the margins for error are smaller…

Edited August 29, 2022 by Spargonicus

[Rhino 56]

21 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Not just their flooding but their short passing game chipping through our zone which worked against us earlier in the year as well as against Freo later in the year.

Agree Swans always been elite short kicks 

[Doug Reemer 1,154]

@binman

IMO I think the only chance Tmac has of coming back in is if (god forbid) we lose on Friday night and we are exposed for not having a 2nd traditional kew forward. 
 

He would come in for a semi final.

My question. Who will be the medi-sub on Friday? As we have the entire list to pick from as Casey aren’t playing.

[deanox 9,643]

49 minutes ago, Spargonicus said:

I’d like some discussion on why some teams “match up” well against other teams…Sydney and Collingwood have great records against us lately…how can this be? 

How could Norf beat us 20 times in a row? (Admittedly during the Great Deepression)

How can we have the Lions’ measure?

Surely the personnel shift too much year to year to be a true ‘match up’ thing. Does it speak more of the mental side of sport? (Which is huge)

Binman often criticizes people ignoring loading in favour of ‘mental weakness’, but surely the mental side of things is quite a significant factor…is it game style match ups? Eg Lions play ultra attacking, we’re built for defense first - so the margins for error are smaller…

Adding to this, due to the fixture there are some teams that we play around the same time each year (ie Collingwood on queen's birthday). So how much of the timing of matches could factor into this ie different loading programs for top teams vs bottom teams?

[Gawndy the Great 9,009]

3 hours ago, layzie said:

We know about Sydney's small forward threats but I'm thinking in order for the Swans to win they will need to find a tall marking presence who can clunk a few. Sam Reid was this man in Round 12 with 5 marks and 2 inside 50. 

Granted there was no May last time but do you guys also feel we need to be wary of this threat? My attitude is that their smalls are going to score on us, that's fact, but the punch that gets you is often the one you don't see coming especially in finals. 

It’s going to be wet based on the current forecast, which will make it a ground ball game for sure. I doubt they will go for a 3 tall setup if that is the case (Logan, Reid and Franklin) but who knows. 

I think we have more weapons in the SF department anyway. 

[Demonland 70,255]

 

[WalkingCivilWar 39,256]

Another awesome show last night! You guys cover so many areas but always in great detail. And well-thought out questions from our DL-ers, as well. I love Binman’s habitual optimism and last night was really pleased to hear George just as optimistic. And Andy… well, he’s  getting there. 🤣

#PositiveBinners 

#PositiveGeorge

#CautiouslyNearlyAlmostPositiveAndy

[Demonland 70,255]

Thank you to @kongwacker @demosaw @layzie @Watson11 @deanox @Singa @DEE fence @CHF @Bigfoot @DeezNuts @jnrmac @Demonised @Rhino @Deenooos_ @buck_nekkid @ElDiablo14 @Lefty @Stu @Its Time for Back to Back @Deeoldfart @Spargonicus @Doug Reemer @CYB @In Harmes Way for all of your questions/comments.

Thank you to my cohosts @binman & @george_on_the_outer

And thank you to all our loyal listeners.

[Deeoldfart 7,993]

Thanks for another top notch pod guys.  Consensus amongst the panel that we will win the QF.  I like that!

[rpfc 28,047]

@binmanyou asked at one point why other teams don’t do the ‘triangle’ extra man in defence that acts as a goalkeeper of sorts. The critical thing is the opponent has to keep their extra in the midfield and not allow 1-1s in our backline so it takes a few things for us to maintain this; 

1. Smart, talented defenders who can make this work and organise the team to get the outnumber back.

2. A midfield that can compete with one less at stoppages up the ground. Obviously we have an advantage other teams don’t.

3. Lever and May. Now this is a riff off the first one but these two are so smart that they ensure we pull players from the stoppage to get either Lever if we are pressing up, or May alone into the D50.

So a lot of teams can do this but jeez they have to get it right or it will mean easy hit ups all the way up the ground due to the outnumber.

[Colm 1,928]

Great podcast folks. I really enjoyed. Well done to all involved. 

[binman 41,945]

48 minutes ago, rpfc said:

@binmanyou asked at one point why other teams don’t do the ‘triangle’ extra man in defence that acts as a goalkeeper of sorts. The critical thing is the opponent has to keep their extra in the midfield and not allow 1-1s in our backline so it takes a few things for us to maintain this; 

1. Smart, talented defenders who can make this work and organise the team to get the outnumber back.

2. A midfield that can compete with one less at stoppages up the ground. Obviously we have an advantage other teams don’t.

3. Lever and May. Now this is a riff off the first one but these two are so smart that they ensure we pull players from the stoppage to get either Lever if we are pressing up, or May alone into the D50.

So a lot of teams can do this but jeez they have to get it right or it will mean easy hit ups all the way up the ground due to the outnumber.

Yep, all good points.

A key is having players who can win contested balls between the arcs despite being out numbered. The ability of players like Viney, tracc and Oliver to win such balls is phenomenal - and hard to replicate. 

That's where a player like Sparrow is so key - he feels a bit under appreciated at times but for a young player he is amazing at winning, or at least halving, contests - same is true of JJ and Spargo

Another key, is as you suggest, players who can make the system work down back work - and in Petty, Lever and may we have three players who are brilliant at maintaining structure and are super disciplined about when to go up the ground, zone off or double back. 

A related point is that it is a system years in the making at the dees and whilst it works great now, it is only because of the huge amount of work they have to put in over long period to make it so instinctive, seamless and effective. Only takes one player not being in the right spot for it to unravel.

My point was that is so effective, and gives us  a real edge, that i'm surprised more teams are not using the system - or at least trying to implement it

The dockers have the closest method, and perhaps to a lesser extent the Cats too. The Pies have variation of the model and it looked like the blues were tying to implement it  but seemed to have abandoned it. 

The club i'm most amazed hasn't implemented is the lions as probably only them and the cats have the players strong enough to win outnumbered contests regularly. 

By the by it is a model that is impacted by fatigue, because fatigue makes winning out numbered contests harder and therefore the oppo will win more of such contest and have more inside 50s generally and more inside 50s where the last kick is not under immense pressure. This places the defence under extreme pressure, even with extra. Exhibit B of this scenario was our previous game against the Swans. Me thinks the Swannies are in for a rude shock on Friday night.

Edited August 30, 2022 by binman

[rpfc 28,047]

13 minutes ago, binman said:

Yep, all good points.

A key is having players who can win contested balls between the arcs despite being out numbered. The ability of players like Viney, tracc and Oliver to win such balls is phenomenal - and hard to replicate. 

That's where a player like Sparrow is so key - he feels a bit under appreciated at times but for a young player he is amazing at winning, or at least halving, contests - same is true of JJ and Spargo

Another key, is as you suggest, players who can make the system work down back work - and in Petty, Lever and may we have three players who are brilliant at maintaining structure and are super disciplined about when to go up the ground, zone off or double back. 

A related point is that it is a system years in the making at the dees and whilst it works great now, it is only because of the huge amount of work they have to put in over long period to make it so instinctive, seamless and effective. Only takes one player not being in the right spot for it to unravel.

My point was that is so effective, and gives us  a real edge, that i'm surprised more teams are not using the system - or at least trying to implement it

The dockers have the closest method, and perhaps to a lesser extent the Cats too. The Pies have variation of the model and it looked like the blues were tying to implement it  but seemed to have abandoned it. 

The club i'm most amazed hasn't implemented is the lions as probably only them and the cats have the players strong enough to win outnumbered contests regularly. 

By the by it is a model that is impacted by fatigue, because fatigue makes winning out numbered contests harder and therefore the oppo will win more of such contest and have more inside 50s generally and more inside 50s where the last kick is not under immense pressure. This places the defence under extreme pressure, even with extra. Exhibit B of this scenario was our previous game against the Swans. Me thinks the Swannies are in for a rude shock on Friday night.

It certainly does set us apart. And you can do things like this with great mids - it’s conversations like this that give a good indicator of why we have CP5, CO13 and AB10 signed up for so long. That kind of midfield enables you to play any way you want really.

And as you imply - when you look at what we have down back - it makes it easy to know how we should play. Pressure forwards, defender push up the ground to ensure territory, mids get it going for territory, outnumber one in defence to intercept.

Swans are late to the contested ball party and if we kick straight and deliver well enough into the forward line on quick plays I expect this to be over by HT.

[binman 41,945]

46 minutes ago, rpfc said:

It certainly does set us apart. And you can do things like this with great mids - it’s conversations like this that give a good indicator of why we have CP5, CO13 and AB10 signed up for so long. That kind of midfield enables you to play any way you want really.

 

Excellent points.

I was just thinking today (after reading the comments from Swans supporters on the 'what are they saying' thread) that I'm sometimes guilty of forgetting that in Maxy, Oliver and Trac we don't just have three of the ten best players in the AFL, we have three of the best players of their generation, and arguably already 3 of the best dees to EVER play the game.

Add players with the talent of Gus, May, Lever, Salem and Viney, not to mention youngsters like Kozzie and Jackson and its hard to argue that this team is not one of the most talented lists in the modern era.

How lucky are we that get to enjoy this current team. Wow.

I bang on about our method and systems a lot; but this list is going to make any game plan look pretty damn good. Really, pound for pound, not another list comes close. 

I'm also probably underestimating how fundamental that level of talent is to making our system work, and without such talent perhaps it is not feasible to implement our model fully. 

That said we have recruited with the model in mind, not the other way around as the cats have done, and have targeted players who can win their own ball and have the discipline to play their assigned role.

Edited August 30, 2022 by binman

[deanox 9,643]

@binman and @george_on_the_outer I was surprised that you thought Papley would be the focus rather than Heeney given on paper at least, Heeney has been more damaging this year:

Papley: 26 goals (ave 1.6), 14.9 disposals, 2.1 tackles (0.8 in f50)

Heeney: 46 goals (ave 2.1), 17 disposals, 4.4 tackles (1.6 in f50)

Their other stats are all pretty even (intercepts, score involvements, clearances, marks, metres gained, inside 50s). Papley is ahead on GAs but overall score involvements are the same so didn't highlight it.

[rpfc 28,047]

1 hour ago, binman said:

Excellent points.

I was just thinking today (after reading the comments from Swans supporters on the 'what are they saying' thread) that I'm sometimes guilty of forgetting that in Maxy, Oliver and Trac we don't just have three of the ten best players in the AFL, we have three of the best players of their generation, and arguably already 3 of the best dees to EVER play the game.

Add players with the talent of Gus, May, Lever, Salem and Viney, not to mention youngsters like Kozzie and Jackson and its hard to argue that this team is not one of the most talented lists in the modern era.

How lucky are we that get to enjoy this current team. Wow.

I bang on about our method and systems a lot; but this list is going to make any game plan look pretty damn good. Really, pound for pound, not another list comes close. 

I'm also probably underestimating how fundamental that level of talent is to making our system work, and without such talent perhaps it is not feasible to implement our model fully. 

That said we have recruited with the model in mind, not the other way around as the cats have done, and have targeted players who can win their own ball and have the discipline to play their assigned role.

Yes, every Demon should stop and appreciate this before Gawn gets over the hill; we have half a dozen generational talents and three all timers.

Wow indeed.

[binman 41,945]

36 minutes ago, deanox said:

@binman and @george_on_the_outer I was surprised that you thought Papley would be the focus rather than Heeney given on paper at least, Heeney has been more damaging this year:

Papley: 26 goals (ave 1.6), 14.9 disposals, 2.1 tackles (0.8 in f50)

Heeney: 46 goals (ave 2.1), 17 disposals, 4.4 tackles (1.6 in f50)

Their other stats are all pretty even (intercepts, score involvements, clearances, marks, metres gained, inside 50s). Papley is ahead on GAs but overall score involvements are the same so didn't highlight it.

Yeah, I can see what you're saying.

I think papley is probably easier to run a defender tiight on than heeney as his position is more a traditional small forward role and he stays inside tbe 50 metre arc more (or did - heeney is playing more forward of late)

And in the last few games we have done so ie had a defender stick with papley.

But you're right, shutting heeney out would go a long way to stopping them scoring, and hibbo would have the strength to go with him.

[DeezNuts 624]

3 hours ago, deanox said:

@binman and @george_on_the_outer I was surprised that you thought Papley would be the focus rather than Heeney given on paper at least, Heeney has been more damaging this year:

Papley: 26 goals (ave 1.6), 14.9 disposals, 2.1 tackles (0.8 in f50)

Heeney: 46 goals (ave 2.1), 17 disposals, 4.4 tackles (1.6 in f50)

Their other stats are all pretty even (intercepts, score involvements, clearances, marks, metres gained, inside 50s). Papley is ahead on GAs but overall score involvements are the same so didn't highlight it.

When Heeney is having a slow game he gets thrown around positionally, so I like the negation of his strengths and exposition of his weaknesses as a better tactic.

[Deeoldfart 7,993]

I found the Ian Munro interview with  @Whispering_Jackand @Demonland totally absorbing, and a real ‘eye opener’.  I reckon ‘Between the Flags” is a must read, especially for Demonlanders of my vintage, who lived through our ‘golden era’ of the1950s and 1960s, and stuck fat with our beloved Demons through the (seemingly) interminable 57 year drought.

Hey Mrs Deeoldfart,  I now know what I want for Fathers Day.

Edited August 31, 2022 by Deeoldfart