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Percentage calculation

pitmaster

By pitmaster
in Melbourne Demons

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Lucifers Hero Legend

Lucifers Hero   37,090

Posted
Posted (edited)

Sydney have won a lot of games this year by 8 - 10 goals:

  • +61 v Eagles (Optus)
  • +58 v Ess (SCG)
  • +51 v Saints (SCG)
  • +53 v WBD (SCG)
  • +73 v GWS (SCG)

So they will back themselves in to get the score needed for 2nd spot and a Home final.

However, this game is at Marvel Stadium where their results this year were:

  • -11 v WBD
  • -15 v Carlton

St Kilda's Marvel Stadium record this year is:

  • +33 v Richmond
  • +26 v GCS
  • +10 Cats
  • +53 v North
  • -35 v Ess
  • +15 v Carlton
  • -41 v Freo
  • -28 v WBD
  • +12 v Hawks

While their second half form isn't as good as the first there have bee no blow out losses; the biggest being nearly 7 goals.

 

Conclusion:  Sydney will not blow Saints out of the park by 8-10 goals.

Edited by Lucifers Hero
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Grapeviney
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pitmaster
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The problem with being too definitive about the winning margin the Swans need to overtake us is that when dividing the quotient (the answer) varies according to the size of the divisor (bottom number)

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Anywhere, anytime- bring it on

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Lucifers Hero Legend

Lucifers Hero   37,090

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, DubDee said:

Does anyone know how the finals fixturing usually goes? Need to plan my weekend! Complicated by Father’s Day a little. 

cats v Freo/pies Friday night?

dees v swans Sat night?

EF Sat arvo and sun arvo?

just realised cats might get to play at Mordor if they play Freo 🤢

They often start the finals on the Thursday.  If so there probably won't be a Sunday afternoon game so your Father's Day should be ok.  But that could depend on who plays and where the Home games are.

The fixture will probably be out within 24 hours of the last game tomorrow.

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ElDiablo14 Redleg

ElDiablo14   3,124

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

They often start the finals on the Thursday.  If so there probably won't be a Sunday afternoon game so your Father's Day should be ok.  But that could depend on who plays and where the Home games are.

The fixture will probably be out within 24 hours of the last game tomorrow.

Please let us not be on the Thursday night slot. They can give that to Geelong v Freo

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DubDee Legend

DubDee   20,715

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24 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

They often start the finals on the Thursday.  If so there probably won't be a Sunday afternoon game so your Father's Day should be ok.  But that could depend on who plays and where the Home games are.

The fixture will probably be out within 24 hours of the last game tomorrow.

Oh really? Cats will get the prime spot being 1st which will be Friday. So we’ll probably be Thursday with a chance of Sat. 
 

Thursday night finals should not be a thing!

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Garbo Mighty Demon

Garbo   1,330

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, DubDee said:

Does anyone know how the finals fixturing usually goes? Need to plan my weekend! Complicated by Father’s Day a little. 

cats v Freo/pies Friday night?

dees v swans Sat night?

EF Sat arvo and sun arvo?

just realised cats might get to play at Mordor if they play Freo 🤢

Last year it is was 2v3 Friday and 1v4 on Saturday. With the other 2 games on Saturday and Sunday day 

Edited by Garbo
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layzie Legend

layzie   28,931

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42 minutes ago, ElDiablo14 said:

Please let us not be on the Thursday night slot. They can give that to Geelong v Freo

Yes please, say no to Thurs night finals. Give it to Geelong, they had no problem scheduling our game down there on Thurs night.

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At the break of Gawn Redleg

At the break of Gawn   3,519

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Sydney have won a lot of games this year by 8 - 10 goals:

  • +61 v Eagles (Optus)
  • +58 v Ess (SCG)
  • +51 v Saints (SCG)
  • +53 v WBD (SCG)
  • +73 v GWS (SCG)

So they will back themselves in to get the score needed for 2nd spot and a Home final.

However, this game is at Marvel Stadium where their results this year were:

  • -11 v WBD
  • -15 v Carlton

St Kilda's Marvel Stadium record this year is:

  • +33 v Richmond
  • +26 v GCS
  • +10 Cats
  • +53 v North
  • -35 v Ess
  • +15 v Carlton
  • -41 v Freo
  • -28 v WBD
  • +12 v Hawks

While their second half form isn't as good as the first there have bee no blow out losses; the biggest being nearly 7 goals.

 

Conclusion:  Sydney will not blow Saints out of the park by 8-10 goals.

I think you’re also missing the North v Swans game at Marvel recently which was 88-126. That won’t get the job done for them.

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ElDiablo14 Redleg

ElDiablo14   3,124

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26 minutes ago, Bates Mate said:

Odds on they give us that slot  Thursday night with Melbourne v Sydney = ratings in two biggest cities and ad revenue. 

Surely you don't waste a QF on a Thursday, Thursday night should be the lowly elimination final (Brisbane v Carlton/Richmond)

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IRW Redleg

IRW   1,235

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5 hours ago, OhMyDees said:

After last year, we deserve having a massive final on our home deck. Been a long time since battering the Hawks in 2018…

Last time Weid actually played at AFL level as well

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Demonstone Trident

Demonstone   19,249

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Posted
5 minutes ago, david_neitz_is_my_dad said:

It’s also the rest timeframe. A team who finished lower shouldn’t get an extra days rest for the upcoming game

 

They all get a week off with the pre-finals bye.  The extra day won't make any difference.

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Bring-Back-Powell Legend

Bring-Back-Powell   13,237

Posted
Posted

Assuming Collingwood wins I’ll have a stab:

Thu night -  Fremantle V Bulldogs

Friday night - Geelong V Collingwood 

Saturday twilight - Brisbane V Richmond

Saturday night - Dees V Swans 

With regards to Thursday nights, they’re not afraid to put a blockbuster qualifying final on that night. In 2018 they had Richmond V Hawthorn so it’s not out of the realms of possibility we cop Thu night.

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Sydee Redleg

Sydee   3,630

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Redbeard said:

This is the cheatsheet I needed, blooming legend!!

Saints worse loss for year 

Against the swans in Sydney - 51 pts

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ElDiablo14 Redleg

ElDiablo14   3,124

Posted
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2 minutes ago, david_neitz_is_my_dad said:

131.61

It is currently 130.54

So that would've ment Sydney need to a score a couple more goals today, I think they need like 10 goals differential today to be comfortable. 12 had we not conceded those late goals 

 

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sue Trident

sue   8,441

Posted
Posted (edited)

If you want to fill in the gaps in Grapeviney's nice table regarding % and the Saints' score, just copy and paste the following into Google search to see the score Sydney has to get to beat our percentage:

For example, if the Saints have scored 80 points, then paste into the search field:

=1.30546190155091*(1542+80)-1979

that gives 138.459204316, so they need to score 139 points.  Replace 80 with whatever the Saints have scored as the match progresses.

Edited by sue
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Bates Mate Redleg

Bates Mate   3,890

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, layzie said:

Apologies if it's already been said but what would our % have been if we didn't concede the last two goals last night?

Our % is The same as it would be if trac didn't get the two luckiest bounce goals I've seen this year

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Diamond_Jim Legend

Diamond_Jim   11,811

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Posted
36 minutes ago, Bates Mate said:

Our % is The same as it would be if trac didn't get the two luckiest bounce goals I've seen this year

Not quite

One action affects the numerator whereas the other impacts the denominator element of the equation. 

Let us say we were at 130.

If they score twelve points we have to score 16 to remain at 130

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