How far off were we from a perfect 2021?

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

17-1-4 (130.8%) for a total of 70 pts was our record in the 2021 home and away season. 3-0-0 (213.1%) was our finals record taking our overall season performance to 20-1-4 (139.4%). 

We had some fantastic wins with 80% win-loss against the top 8 sides. But i want to examine how close we really were to pulling off one of the most amazing seasons in AFL history. Our finals will go down in the history books as being one of the most dominant and clinical performances, effectively putting to bed beyond any doubt that we were the best team in 2021. But this thread is not about that. I wanted to hone in on where we left some points on the table and determine how close we were to pulling off a lossless season. 

Round 10: AFC vs MFC 96-95. It was a tantalizing game of football by one of the up and coming (surprisingly) teams in the AFL. The Crows put up a performance that everyone was probably a little unprepared for including the players out on the ground. We hadn't seen that brand of fast ball movement and tactics against our defensive structures. Whilst the Crows were at/near the bottom, they were definitely giving us a sneak peak of the threat they will pose with their list in the years to come.  

How close were we? Really really close. I think we all agree we were robbed in this game of at least 2 points. A few very controversial non free kicks in the last 1-2 mins. It was also probably the first signs of fatigue starting to set in in the season. Salem was rested, our forward 50 connection was not where we wanted it to be. Some interesting stats from the game. +37 disposals Crows, +7 i50 Dees, +23 clearances Dees, +11 contested possessions, 15-6 to 14-11 and we were in front for about 70%

Round 13: MFC vs CFC 63-80. We actually started this game well, but you could tell there was a lack of intensity in comparison to the Pies from the get go. Could have been that wave 3 was kicking in, but probably had more to do with the Pies playing out of their skins for Bucks. In retrospect, this was one of, if not the worst performance of 2021 and it was only a 3 goal loss. We have all heard that good teams can still find a way to win, even if they are not playing well, but we didn't use the ball well enough (despite having lower turnovers that the Pies). The Pies were able to get their kick-mark game going (97- 124), which we were never really looked to undo. Surprisingly we took back the lead in the 3rd quarter and also won the free kick count (28-17), but after being beaten in the clearances and back-to-back-to-back goals to start the last quarter, it was just not going to be our day.

How close were we? Had a sniff. I'd say that the occasion had the Pies playing well above themselves and that a few players had already checked out for the upcoming bye. 

Round 16: MFC vs GWS 55-64 Cant say i recall too much from this game other than thinking we were outcoached. I have always rated GWSs stoppage work - they are so tenacious and clean at the contest and were able to get the ball out of traffic quickly and seamlessly, to their runners with such ease. Our goal kicking accuracy also really let us down with a 2.4 to 1.2 last quarter performance that had it been reversed, would have just got us over the line. We had +1 scoring shots, had much more of the ball but were smashed in the stoppage game. The narrative of the inevitable fall was also starting to take hold in the media. Only lead for 2 mins, but probably was the impetus of GWS late season build of form.

How close were we? Could of, should of, would of. Bad kicking = Bad football. 

Round 18: MFC vs HFC 79-79. I hate the Hawks (lot of rivalry with mates during early 2000s) and so whenever we dont win, it feels like the end of the world for me at least. This game had a cracking first quarter, but my attention was drawn to the intensity of HFC and thought it was not going to be a walk in the park despite where they were on the ladder. It had some similarities to the Crows about 2 months earlier. Whilst we beat them comprehensively earlier in the year, it was only the last quarter where we were able to build a generous lead. We all know the genius coaching of Clarko and how he is able to take our game away from us and we saw it again on this occasion with a Clarko masterclass. We had well and truly settled into being one of the least accurate goal kicking teams with another poor 11-13 to 12-7 display.  

How close were we? Statistically speaking, this was ours, but had the game gone on another 1-2 mins, you feel like we were lucky to hang onto the 2 points in the end. 

Round 19: MFC vs WB 65-85 Our first and only back-to-back loss of the year but more importantly, our last one too. Like the first encounter, it was a subdued game where both teams were trying to find a weakness but not really challenging each other. The Doggies were able to adjust their game style to suit the conditions. The umpires had an absolute howler of a game where they were responsible for changing the momentum in the last quarter even though we got to within a goal of the margin. Doggies had a freakish forward 50 stoppage conversion game and our goal kicking accuracy again haunted us with a 1.4 opening quarter. 

How close were we? Loading, umpiring & goal kicking accuracy. Projected score (champion data) had us winning by 1. 

So there you go folks, we were 18 points away from the statistically perfect season. We had no blow outs, despite clearly hitting some form issues after the bye and our total losing margin for the whole year was 49 points. FORTY-NINE POINTS! I still cannot believe that. An amazing 2021 capped off in the best way possible. It is going to be tough to top that in 2022 but it is absolutely possible.  

Edited October 3, 2021 by CYB

[Sir Why You Little 36,899]

Not being at The MCG was about the only problem we can remedy 

[JTR 2,846]

I am irrationally bothered by the fact that the only team we didn't beat all season was the Filth.

[Bang Bang Bang 5,799]

That Bulldogs defeat was the worst performance of the year. Empty stadium, horrendous weather, horrendous umpiring but honestly a game where for the first time all year I thought to myself “We aren’t good enough”. Dogs were clearly the better team on the night. 

[Satan 2,870]

Re the pies game , probably the only game our defence was beaten , inside 50 marks were collingwood 18  -to 9 marks . They kicked to their forwards low making spoils and intercept difficult 

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

Winning games when not playing our best was huge. In previous years one loss could’ve turned into a 2-3 loss slump. I wouldn’t count a draw and a loss on consecutive weeks two losses in a row. When was the last time we didn’t lose two games in a row in a season?

[Demon trucker 1,800]

All of the loses were due to the teams inaccurate kicking at goal, 

[DubDee 25,436]

Was there any confirmation from the club about training loads or other reasons for our drop off in form after the bye?

just curious. We looked unbeatable the rest of the time

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

9 minutes ago, Demon trucker said:

All of the loses were due to the teams inaccurate kicking at goal, 

We were rated the most inaccurate for a fair chunk of the season. Improve that and perhaps we can go even better!

 

[DeeSpencer 25,369]

We came to within 4 points of the Dogs at the start of the last quarter despite them playing with 3 extra players on the field.

25-11 free kicks, it was a bit of a joke. 

But we allowed too much room to Bont - which didn't really occur in the grand final - the mistakes in the grand final were mostly getting the wrong match ups inside defensive 50 for 2 of his goals.

And we just couldn't punish them inside 50 even with Keath injured and Schache at full back. Ben Brown was only just warming in to Ben Brown form.

The Hawks draw and Crows loss were both a mix of mental lapses and being unable to full recover when we weren't switched on. You can't be 100% switched on every game but it was disappointed that we got it together enough to win then didn't.

GWS beat us around the ball and defended really well, but we simply didn't have the forwards to over power them and when we sent Hunt forward to win it he decided to run, bounce and get tackled rather than kick maybe the 1 goal we needed to put doubt in to them and break them open. I left that game feeling we either had to win the midfield, get a target inside 50 or pressure like crazy to win games and we went 0-3 against a tricky match up and still had every change to pinch it.

The Collingwood game was our 1 truly awful performance. Nothing went right that day. Weid was awful. The midfield banged it around and had no accountability. We didn't adapt to the width of the ground. The key defenders were panicking and the match ups were bad. There were few redeeming qualities to that effort at all. It was very 2020 and had me worried.

[Deefiant 441]

Too many what ifs. I don't we were anywhere near a perfect season. In my mind winning the middle patch against the contenders meant we were in good shape this year and I confidence we'd be a serious contender.

I also thought that the wb loss was just two teams cautiously watching each other. I only took the fact that we matched up to them well without dominating. 

The had a patch in the middle that I was a real kick in the guts where the team needed to lose a few games. I think that we were took more learnings in what to do tough games than the doggies did in winning big against the lower ranked teams. I think this really showed in the grand final where the doggies challeneged us but we were able to dry up scoring, absorb their pressure and swing it the other way. The doggies just kinda gave up. 

Remember collingwood went 20-2 and still didn't win a flag. 

[Deefiant 441]

13 minutes ago, DubDee said:

Was there any confirmation from the club about training loads or other reasons for our drop off in form after the bye?

just curious. We looked unbeatable the rest of the time

They didnt put out a press release (why would you) but a few players have mentioned it in interviews

[DeeSpencer 25,369]

Interesting that we went 6-3-1 in our double up games, but 11-1 in the other 12.

We also went 4-1 the first time we played sides in the double ups with the inexplicable loss to the Crows. But 2-2-1 in the repeat games with GWS, Dogs, Hawks find a way to improve on us. Not entirely sure that means much though. GWS might've beaten us the first time around if not for injuries, the Dogs probably match up better against us at the G and that game was closer than the result says and the Hawks played us pretty tight both times. Once we put the game to bed with a huge last quarter as they were tiring, the 2nd time we stuffed around enough to keep them in it.

The 3 sides we played in the finals for the 2nd/3rd times we obviously went 3-0. So if it was coaches figuring us out a bit it didn't last.

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,676]

26 minutes ago, Demon trucker said:

All of the loses were due to the teams inaccurate kicking at goal, 

Against Collingwood we kicked 9.9 but the Pies managed 11.14 so we couldn’t blame inaccuracy on that loss. It was just a poor day at the office.

[loges 6,767]

Not a perfect season, but looking at the season in totality, we were by far the best side, born out by our finals wins.

[daisycutter 29,596]

low light for me was not beating only 1 team all year, and yeah it to be the bloody filth

thought our opening game against freo was very ordinary and error riddled, but at least they were worse

but i'll take a flag any time

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,676]

Anyone slightly concerned about our MCG form since the middle of the year.

1) an ordinary scrappy win over Essendon

2) a really poor first 3 quarters in a close loss to GWS

3) an inexplicable draw to a 4-11 Hawthorn at the time.

4) A loss to the Dogs in which we trailed all night.

5) an ordinary to poor win over Adelaide in which we conceded a run of about 5 goals to an injury riddled bottom 4 side.

Hoping those game were more indicative of our mid- late season flat spot rather than an actual issue we have with the venue.

[BDA 22,691]

Our 2021 was perfect. we won the flag

[The heart beats true 18,084]

I am entirely convinced that Melbourne loaded heavy after the bye, and the Bulldogs loaded heavy running into the finals. Both were the better teams all year. Geelong have skewed data because of their home ground.

No season is perfect, but ours was as close to perfect a finals series as you’ll get. It was remarkable. The only game we looked in for a battle in we won by 74 points.

Edited October 3, 2021 by The heart beats true

[Wells 11 5,360]

32 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Anyone slightly concerned about our MCG form since the middle of the year.

1) an ordinary scrappy win over Essendon

2) a really poor first 3 quarters in a close loss to GWS

3) an inexplicable draw to a 4-11 Hawthorn at the time.

4) A loss to the Dogs in which we trailed all night.

5) an ordinary to poor win over Adelaide in which we conceded a run of about 5 goals to an injury riddled bottom 4 side.

Hoping those game were more indicative of our mid- late season flat spot rather than an actual issue we have with the venue.

It’s worth noting that optus over in WA now has the exact dimensions of the MCG. So I think, if you’re just looking at how we deal w different oval sizes, we should be including those finals wins in with our MCG record. 

[Chook 15,012]

Lack of maturity vs Crows and Hawthorn (plus umpires) cost us the 4 points (combined) in those games. We were 16 points up against the Crows but didn't manage to slow the game down, and were up by a kick with 30 seconds left vs Hawthorn and (I think) Lever kicked the ball long to a contest when he had some open players in the pocket he could have chipped to and eaten up the last seconds of the game.

Vs the Bulldogs we were just at the end of our loading phase and I think our coaching panel consciously held some things back that cost us the game knowing full well we had bigger fish to fry. Even so we could very well have won if we weren't so inaccurate.

Fair play to Collingwood and GWS, I think those were the only two games this year where the best team on the day won. Bulldogs beat us fair and square too, but we didn't put all our cards on the table that day.

[Mazer Rackham 14,971]

We didn't beat Geelong by 187 and we didn't beat Dogs in the GF by 120, but there's always next year.

[Cheesy D. Pun 1,762]

1 hour ago, Bang Bang Bang said:

That Bulldogs defeat was the worst performance of the year. Empty stadium, horrendous weather, horrendous umpiring but honestly a game where for the first time all year I thought to myself “We aren’t good enough”. Dogs were clearly the better team on the night. 

We leaked too many fwd50 stoppage goals in that game. If I remember correctly, it was Hibberd that was responsible for most of them and it caused him to lose his spot. 

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,298]

1 hour ago, Demon trucker said:

All of the loses were due to the teams inaccurate kicking at goal, 

Mindset played its part.

[At the break of Gawn 4,460]

I have the perspective that every loss we had during the season was a stepping stone towards our premiership. It’s nice to wonder what might have been if we were undefeated all year, but at the end of the day, the journey turned out how it turned out, and we won the flag.