My Round 7 Preview and Prediction

[CHF 2,630]

6-0

6 Rounds played….. 6 wins….. 24 points in the premiership bank.

Looks good huh?

I am on the wrong side of 60yo….. the wrong side of 6’ ……. And, if my wife is to be believed, the wrong side of 80kg. However, I am on the right side of one thing….. The Fence. The fence that divides the MFC supporters from the rest of the AFL supporters.

And what a pleasant view it is from where we sit. Nothing but wins……. So far…. Hell of a lot of the season to go but I would rather be where we are rather than where we are not.

Richmond looked as if they thought if they turned up and did the minimum they would find a way to win. A few of their ‘stars’ would do the necessary and Bobs your uncle….. 4 points. Oops….

It has all been said by others in the press and on this and other sites. We absorbed their early pressure, turned up the wick a notch or two and found them wanting. Ended up controlling the majority of the game across the field with a good, strong consistent pressure game in all lines. I predicted a 5 goal win and came close.

I know it is traditional that the players get the accolades for a win and the coaches/selectors get the kicks for a loss but a big shout out to the coaches and selectors for getting it right so far this season. The players are well prepared, well drilled and carrying out their roles perfectly. You cannot ask for more.

And so, to the Round 7 encounter with the Roos in Tassie (for now) on Sunday. What to say about this iteration of the North Melbourne team? We, as Demon supporters, know their situation very well having lived it for a long time. Is that a reason to go soft on them? No bloody way! I want the win, the points and a percentage boost. I want the team to prepare exactly the same way they have for the last 6 matches. I want them to be confident in their approach to the game but understand that, if they drop their intensity and pressure a little, they will pay for it.

The facts:

We are coming off a win at the G against the reigning premiers, Richmond- Advantage us.

We were in control of our game for long periods – Advantage us

They have not won a game, or looked like winning a game all season - Advantage us

They are travelling back from WA – Advantage us

The game is in Tassie – Advantage them ( I had to find something to their advantage)

Problem areas of the game for us (this is getting harder and harder to find. I may have to change it to problem areas for the opposition):

I found my reaction to watching the game on Saturday very different. I was on edge in the early part of the first quarter until Salem kicked the first for us. When that happened, I smiled, sat back and enjoyed the rest of it. I had confidence that we would win. A very strange feeling.

Defence is up there in the best in the league, if not the best at the moment. That was one of the best defensive performances I have seen from a Melbourne team against a ‘quality’ attack.  The test for the defensive unit this week will be to ensure that they keep up the intensity for four quarters. Good structure, balance and leadership in the team back there at the moment. Just keep on keeping on no matter the opposition.

We have the Roos covered in the middle of the ground. If both teams play to form, that is a big understatement. The form of Petracca, Oliver and the rest is excellent. I know that there is talk of the players being selfless and I agree with that but, to my mind, it is the fact that the mix in there right now really compliment each other. Strong individual connections as well as strong team connections. I wonder if any one has done an analysis of the percentage of times the ball goes directly between players like Petracca and Oliver or Langdon and Hunt. Roos will have huge problems trying to contain us in the middle. Ziebell has been a stand out for them but has little quality support except for possibly Cunnington. Not a lot there after those two.

Max and Luke come up against one of Max’s old sparring partners in Goldstein. Supporting Todd will be Campbell most likely. Again, the Roos pair will have their hands full not just in the ruck contests but also around the ground. I can see that they will be in a very defensive mode against the Max and Luke show.

Now for the forwards……. (again)

The good; we kicked a winning score last week.

The bad; The game was too short…. I was enjoying it so much I wanted it to continue

The ugly; Fritsch’s wet hair….. it almost looked natural.

What I like about the present players/structure in the forward 50 is that it makes us so very unpredictable and hard to defend against and I think that will be a big worry for North. It would be tempting for the selectors to bring Brown of the ‘B’ variety into the team to play against his old team, but they may decide that there is no need and that we do not need any distraction in attack.

Love that TMac has re-discovered his old form and making selection an automatic for himself.

I predict a big win for the Dees. 10 goals. I looked over the North team and their stats in recent matches and it would be the biggest upset in many a season if they got up in this one.

The bandwagon, that has been christened “The Bathwater Express” is purring along like a 70’s muscle car. The big 351 throbbing with latent power just waiting to be opened up on the straight. Might have to do a bit of adjustment along the way to get it to handle the corners and tricky bits. Seats are filling fast.

 

[loges 6,332]

We'll be favourites. Advantage them.

[Superunknown 3,626]

Coming up with a multi on this one is going to be tricky. I don’t know if there is a market for tracc to get 150 posessions 

[BDA 20,890]

I look at North and see us during the Neeld era. I can't help but feel sorry for them.

10 goal win minimum.

[adonski 9,385]

My conservative view is we'll win by 187, BBB with a bag of 12 against his old mob. 

[JTR 2,685]

In terms of mindset, this game is complete opposite to Tigers. Saturday night we had nothing to lose whereas vs North we have everything to lose.

Its a completely different sort of pressure so it'll be interesting to see how we handle it.

Edited April 26, 2021 by JTR

[Demonstone 19,908]

I have every confidence we'll pouch those Roos.  

[CHF 2,630]

12 minutes ago, JTR said:

In terms of mindset, this game is complete opposite to Tigers. Saturday night we had nothing to lose whereas vs North we have everything to lose.

Its a completely different sort of pressure so it'll be interesting to see how we handle it.

Agree 100% with this. Said last week that one game will not make or break our season but win or lose last week the big thing for me would be how they respond in the Roos game this week.

[Mr Steve 3,820]

Massive game, we will find out more about Melbourne this weekend than any other game so far this year. 

[spirit of norm smith 13,553]

Have to win it.  Previous demons teams have “relaxed” against such opposition and paid the price with a defeat.  
 

Dees NEED TO BE RUTHLESS 

[BDA 20,890]

43 minutes ago, Mr Steve said:

Massive game, we will find out more about Melbourne this weekend than any other game so far this year. 

I doubt that somehow. Reckon beating the premiers, at their own game, tells us way more than beating up on a cellar dweller

[Timothy Reddan-A'Blew 4,263]

BDA, I think the find-out will be whether the game unfolds and concludes as a true 'undefeated-vs-bottom' game should.

[Timothy Reddan-A'Blew 4,263]

...I, for one, think it will, btw!?

[BDA 20,890]

4 hours ago, Timothy Reddan-A'Blew said:

BDA, I think the find-out will be whether the game unfolds and concludes as a true 'undefeated-vs-bottom' game should.

 

4 hours ago, Timothy Reddan-A'Blew said:

...I, for one, think it will, btw!?

I take your point. I think we will win handily as well.

I guess my point is beating a bottom team by a big margin doesn't tell us a whole lot about how we will go in September. 

[Demons11 6,404]

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,019]

9 hours ago, Mr Steve said:

Massive game, we will find out more about Melbourne this weekend than any other game so far this year. 

Surely this can’t be the theme every week.

[leave it to deever 16,533]

11 hours ago, CHF said:

bandwagon, that has been christened “The Bathwater Express” is purring along like a 70’s muscle car. The big 351 throbbing with latent power just waiting to be opened up on the straight. Might have to do a bit of adjustment along the way to get it to handle the corners and tricky bits. Seats are filling fast.

 

Thanks Chf

Am loving your game previews. As a Usa muscle car enthusiast this one was extra special.

Hopefully we will add some extra horses up fwd with Bbb against his old club.

Great to read another supporter is enjoying footy as much as me.

Keep them coming.

Ps I thought Frittas hair was tested and streamlined in a wind tunnel somwhere.

[Demon17 4,730]

12 hours ago, Mr Steve said:

Massive game, we will find out more about Melbourne this weekend than any other game so far this year. 

Insightful and spot on Mr. Steve.

Each game so far  we learn something, such as ability to accelerate when challenged, improved game plan, players to next level (e.g.Langdon), skills etc.

This week we will see in a big test if the juggernaut continues or the team is , as in the past, appearing self-satisfied.

So for me Its a tough mental test for all and will go a long way to predicting the year.

[buck_nekkid 5,617]

Have us as favourites.  How far depends on the midfield battle and if they pull us down to their level.  Ziebell getting so much ball because it is always in their back half.  Would like to see less than 30 points kicked against us (2 scoreless quarters would be grand) and us over 100 points.  That would mean 70+ point win.  Moderate this by the conditions at Hobart and if there is any scrap in the Roos.

[Diamond_Jim 12,092]

Concerned by the game being in Hobart simply because it's a routine issue. Add to that the on again off again nature due to the WA covid scare.

Memories of Cairns.

All that aside it should be (better be) a nice win.

Already thinking of the Swans game the following week... (hopefully they don't close the upper decks yet again)

[Youngwilliam 380]

There is a different mindset this year in the team. There is an air of "no distractions, no one player praise". 

This was evident when Trac got the Checkers medal. He received it, said thanks and moved on. He had the medal under his top out of sight. I first thought maybe he felt Salem was more deserving and he didn't want to show it off. Later in all the talk every time the media try to pluck a player out and have the group talk about that player There is a set routine. "Yes he is going alright isn't he, he's doing his job well in the group, he complements the teams hard work."

I have never seen this Melbourne before and I like it. I'd like to win by 100 points if it's not asking too much.

[sisso 2,431]

Melbourne this week:

[daisycutter 28,713]

17 hours ago, demonstone said:

I have every confidence we'll pouch those Roos.  

yes, we should tear them a new pouch (or two)

[DubDee 21,783]

No doubt the last 6 weeks has been a massive build up to the Tigers game and Jonesy's 300th.  Going down to the Shire to play the hobbits is a major change. Self motivation will be key and I won't be surprised to see us look a bit flat early in the game. For this reason, I think some new blood will give us the injection we need.  Brown to come in against his old mob and maybe change it up a but more if anyone is sore.

North coming back from Perth should run out of legs. Their team is young and generally lacking quality.  Even if we play poorly we should win by 50 pts plus.