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My Round 4 Preview and Prediction

CHF
CHF
in Melbourne Demons

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35 minutes ago, In Harmes Way said:

Francis Evans

Wasn't he subbed out with injury on Monday?  May not be playing this week.

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    The Cats have a very tall backline. Bomb the ball in and they will have a field day picking up intercept marks.

    Shame Evans isn't playing. Very inexperienced. 

     

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    You write very well @CHF, I'd love to hear your thoughts pre-game weekly! 

    Edited by Smokey

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    1 minute ago, Smokey said:

    You write very well @CHF, I'd love to hear your thoughts pre-game weekly! 

    agreed! 

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    1 minute ago, Smokey said:

    You write very well @CHF, I'd love to hear your thoughts pre-game weekly! 

    Smokey, I have done these previews the last few weeks and will try to continue to knock them out each week. I do them because I am a Demon tragic and I enjoy it. I find that it also makes me think a bit more about the game. 

     

    All good really.

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    2 minutes ago, CHF said:

    Smokey, I have done these previews the last few weeks and will try to continue to knock them out each week. I do them because I am a Demon tragic and I enjoy it. I find that it also makes me think a bit more about the game. 

     

    All good really.

    I seem to have missed your previous ones. I'll be looking out for them now 

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    13 minutes ago, bingers said:

    The Cats have a very tall backline. Bomb the ball in and they will have a field day picking up intercept marks.

    Shame Evans isn't playing. Very inexperienced. 

     

    They do so the key is to bring the ball to ground and let Kossie, Spargo and Nibbler do the rest. We did it pretty well against the Giants so hopefully we can replicate against the cats.

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    1 hour ago, CHF said:

    Smokey, I have done these previews the last few weeks

    Keep em coming please.

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    Great write up. Thanks
     

    in my view we need to bring the same intensity and pressure acts to this game just the same as first couple of weeks. Thought last week we were not quite as intense.  The backs will stand up I have no doubt. I think the delivery into the f50 from the centre will be the key.   Go Dees.  Go hard or go home

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    If our forwards continue to work hard to put pressure on the opposition's defence then we're a chance to break down Geelong's short/possession game.

    In theory, it could be a battle of the gameplans. We could run Geelong off their feet with quick ball movement but it depends on the quality of our disposal, especially coming out of defence.

    Geelong are also good at getting first use with Guthrie and O'Çonnor the kings of clearances. 

    Mitch Duncan seems to be back in form while Tom Stewart provides plenty of rebound. We'll need a defensive tag on him.

    I'd also like someone to put the clamps on Myers but not sure Nev is quick enough.

    I think we'll be too quick and too fit for them but Geelong have an annoying way of winning ugly.

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    8 minutes ago, dee-tox said:

    In theory, it could be a battle of the gameplans. We could run Geelong off their feet with quick ball movement but it depends on the quality of our disposal, especially coming out of defence.

    This is why I’m happier playing them at the G with more space to move the ball

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    Geelong in my opinion have very clearly tried to cover the age of their list with a slower game plan, i can't see Langdon and Hunt allowing that to happen this week, we will make them chase us. when the Hawks were able to get some speed on the game, they got on top of the cats. 

    I think it starts in the midfield, if Max gets on top as he should, and Clarry can handle the tag that's no doubt coming and contribute, it'll go a long way to us winning the game. 

    Steven May vs Hawkins should be a great match up. 

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    TAB odds now $1.95 us $1.85 Geelong. Pretty sure we will start favourites. Those who got the $2.30 will hopefully be very happy 6pm Sunday.

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    40 minutes ago, Patches O’houlihan said:

    Geelong in my opinion have very clearly tried to cover the age of their list with a slower game plan, i can't see Langdon and Hunt allowing that to happen this week, we will make them chase us. when the Hawks were able to get some speed on the game, they got on top of the cats. 

    I think it starts in the midfield, if Max gets on top as he should, and Clarry can handle the tag that's no doubt coming and contribute, it'll go a long way to us winning the game. 

    Steven May vs Hawkins should be a great match up. 

    the problem I see is time in possession. We need to be a lot more efficient with our conversion rate as I doubt Geelong will give us the time in possession that GWS etc allowed us.

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    If this game was on 2 years ago I would argue it hinged on the 2 Toms

    Tom h seems to be having less impact and Im certain May will get the chocolates.

    Tom m was instrumental in our 1st to wins but bought liitle against the giants.

    Last week showed we dont rely on key players as much as we used too and I think the cats do. No dangerfield.

    Tag Oliver and jv rocks up.

    Crowd our talls out and Kozzie kicks 4.

    May gets beaten by toby.g but Hunt has a ripper.

    Trac looked quiet but Gawn pops up with 9 marks and 21 touches.

    I wouldnt be surprised if Jones had a big game this weekend and Anb featured in the top votes.

     

     

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    Based on Goodwin's press conference i get the feeling Melksham will play.

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    13 minutes ago, DemonLad5 said:

    Based on Goodwin's press conference i get the feeling Melksham will play.

    Agreed. I think Hibbs too. 

    Also Goody mentioned BB and Weed will play 3 qtrs. Goody also had quite a smile on his face too. As did I. 

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    1 hour ago, DemonLad5 said:

    Based on Goodwin's press conference i get the feeling Melksham will play.

    I think you are correct. 

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    4 hours ago, Diamond_Jim said:

    the problem I see is time in possession. We need to be a lot more efficient with our conversion rate as I doubt Geelong will give us the time in possession that GWS etc allowed us.

    Happy with us blazing away and kicking to big packs, if oppo flooding back, given our current crumbing ability but must get more return (is a 20% improve too greedy?) on set shots.

    Toughest game to tip in the round but I say TMac redeems & Fritta threads more needles here.

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    We opened at $2.45 with Geelong at $1.55 . We are now into $1.98 and the cat at $1.85. I really think we might click this weekend and give them a belting.

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    I wonder if...... Goody might be tempted to tag Goothrey with Clarry!?? Just a Thought! I reckon Clarry will spend more time forward a la Dusty this week!

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    2 hours ago, picket fence said:

    I wonder if...... Goody might be tempted to tag Goothrey with Clarry!?? Just a Thought! I reckon Clarry will spend more time forward a la Dusty this week!

    I think that the cats will look to tag Clarry with OÇonnor'. OÇonnor has done a couple of very good tagging jobs on critical opposition mids in the last couple of weeks and as an advantage, is a strong defender if Clarry were to move forward to try and negate the tag.

    I could see a matchup of Petracca and Gurthrey. Not as a tag but with a run with player. I am sure Goodwin would back Petracca to win that encounter. Whichever one is on top in the encounter would force the other to try and break the matchup. if Guthrey gets off the leash I would look at either Viney or Sparrow to move on to him and apply a stronger tag.

    The midfield matchups and battle will be an interesting highlight to the game.

    We need to play that area of the game on our terms.

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    Geelong rely on outscoring ops early in the game in the hope they will hang on and win.  In the last two games they were well ahead at 3/4 time only to be outscored in the last. 

    • vs Brisbane 4.3 to Geelong 1.1 in the last qtr who were lucky to win by a pt
    • vs Hawthorn 4.3 to Geelong 1.2 in the last qtr who again were lucky to win by 5 pts

    Those games and their fade out in the GF says they can't play out a full 120 min even at the smaller Geelong ground where the Brisbane game was played.  There will be nowhere to hide at the MCG.

    The key is to stay with them (or be ahead) on the scoreboard at 3/4 time and then run them off their feet.  And kicking straight will help this immensely.

    The other key thing is their scoring efficiency - not many scoring shots vis a  vis the opp but get more goals than points which has been a feature of their game for a long time, especially against us.  We need to force them to kick for goal from further out to reduce that efficiency.

    We will win. 

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    36 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

    Geelong rely on outscoring ops early in the game in the hope they will hang on and win.  In the last two games they were well ahead at 3/4 time only to be outscored in the last. 

    • vs Brisbane 4.3 to Geelong 1.1 in the last qtr who were lucky to win by a pt
    • vs Hawthorn 4.3 to Geelong 1.2 in the last qtr who again were lucky to win by 5 pts

    Those games and their fade out in the GF says they can't play out a full 120 min even at the smaller Geelong ground where the Brisbane game was played.  There will be nowhere to hide at the MCG.

    The key is to stay with them (or be ahead) on the scoreboard at 3/4 time and then run them off their feet.  And kicking straight will help this immensely.

    The other key thing is their scoring efficiency - not many scoring shots vis a  vis the opp but get more goals than points which has been a feature of their game for a long time, especially against us.  We need to force them to kick for goal from further out to reduce that efficiency.

    We will win. 

    Our present scoring efficiency (46 %) versus the opposition's (61% ) is about as extreme as it gets. Any reversion to the mean will be welcomed.  

    Overall we're started the year very strong and balanced. Our ratio of scoring shots to opposition is actually only second best because the doggies had a bye last week.   

    If we dominate the midfield one of these weeks it has potential to be a blow out.

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