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My Round 4 Preview and Prediction


CHF
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12 minutes ago, Jjrogan said:

Our present scoring efficiency (46 %) versus the opposition's (61% ) is about as extreme as it gets. Any reversion to the mean will be welcomed.  

Overall we're started the year very strong and balanced. Our ratio of scoring shots to opposition is actually only second best because the doggies had a bye last week.   

If we dominate the midfield one of these weeks it has potential to be a blow out.

Huh?

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Dees will be in front all game after the first goal (to Geelong from a free kick for nothing to Hawkins in front of goal). By the end of the 4th qtr, Dees will have amassed over 100 points again and Geelong will be humiliated with less than 40 points scored.

'Carna Dees! 

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4 minutes ago, Jjrogan said:

Bad joke.  Better said, playing North will boost everyone's percentage and scoring stats this year. 

Oh, ok, now don't do that again and stop feeding my paranoia. I've been to Tassie for 4 games in recent years and lost every one. The last thing on my mind is an increase in percentage. I just want to win down there.

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Just an aside. When are the umpires for any match announced publicly? I had a quick look at the AFL site and no result for our match. Am I looking in the wrong place or not following the right clicks so to speak. The reason I ask is that Geelong are the leagues worst culprits for staging, going to ground with no evident contact, pretending to get hit high when it was a chest bump and sniping when they think they can get away with it. Impartial umpires would help.  

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1 hour ago, maximum bob said:

Just an aside. When are the umpires for any match announced publicly? I had a quick look at the AFL site and no result for our match. Am I looking in the wrong place or not following the right clicks so to speak. The reason I ask is that Geelong are the leagues worst culprits for staging, going to ground with no evident contact, pretending to get hit high when it was a chest bump and sniping when they think they can get away with it. Impartial umpires would help.  

Listed on the umpires website each week:  https://aflua.com.au/umpire-appointments/

Round 4:  https://aflua.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021-AFL-Season-Umpire-Appointments-Round-4-edit.pdf

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1 hour ago, dworship said:

Oh, ok, now don't do that again and stop feeding my paranoia. I've been to Tassie for 4 games in recent years and lost every one. The last thing on my mind is an increase in percentage. I just want to win down there.

Me to Dworship

This is never going to be a given we will have a better chance V Bulldogs or Port

I will be taking the odds with North Thnank you

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From the first bounce, maintain a strong defensive structure and run run run. Tell Langdon, Hunt, Kozzi, Gus, Alex to run non stop in the first Q. Kick straight and the game should be blown open. 

the Cats don’t have a plan B. So when we are up by 30 we can play defensively and handle their BS tactics

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Couple of thoughts in no particular order, with selective use of stats where it suits me!

In rounds two and three Geelong only managed four goals in each second half. 

Leads me to think that without Dangerfield providing the inside-50s, score involvements, goal assists and any other offensive stat you care to name as well as clearances, Geelong struggle to sustain scoring power.

Mitch Duncan (not Selwood) is Geelong's no.2 for just about everything that Dangerfield is no.1.

Tom Hawkins isn't just Geelong's leading goal-kicker with more than double any other, he is also their leading generator of scores for others (goal assists, score involvements) and even their best pressure forward.

Stanley/Blicavs are sharing ruck duties approximately 2/1 and Stanley is getting much more involved in general play than he ever has before.  Fascinating match up for Gawn/Jackson.

Tom Stewart warrants a defensive forward on him to limit his rebound as no other defenders bring the same quality of counter-attack.

Isaac Smith has had a grand total of 5 contested possessions after three rounds of football and must be forced.

Geelong have an unusual defence with almost all of them being 191cm+ but the tallest being Henderson at 196cm then Kolodjashnij at 193cm.  It's a real shame Brown isn't available to stretch them, but Gawn will have a major advantage up there if he isn't being used to plug holes in front of Hawkins. 

On the flipside, Geelong don't have the kind of mobility in defence to control the Nibbler, Spargo, Viney, Jordan, Pickett swarm who are all in the top 30 for tackles inside 50 this season (along with, surprisingly, McDonald and Fritsch, with Jackson also just outside).

Put another way, the Cats are in the very lowest group for inside 50s against them, and will be playing the AFL's top inside-50 team, and they don't have the players to cope well with chaos in their defence and are playing against the best forward pressure team (!!!) in the AFL right now. They will be relying on midfielders running hard to get back, over and over. Old midfielders.  Old midfielders who they also need to be doing all the inside-50 work.

I say, play on like crazy and be willing to bomb it to the contest if there is no clear option.  Just this once.

The little guys will kick 10 between them.

 

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22 minutes ago, leave it to deever said:

Heres hopimg the umpires dont get an early jump on us😁

Sounds silly, doesn't it? Sadly, it's true. Umpires are the only negative of this game against Geelong this weekend. 

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A bit of an update on my preview and prediction –

There is talk over at the Kardy park site that OÇonnor with a hard tag on Oliver will cause Oliver to lose it and lash out and give away frees. I believe that he will learn from last week and more play the ball – really revert to ‘see ball – get ball’ and let the tag take care of itself. Early in last week’s game he got a few frees for holding and although he did not get a lot of possessions, he still had 3 center clearances by halftime.

I will back him to come back from his first half last week.

If I was a Cats supporter I would be more concerned about Selwood’s reaction to a possible Viney tag/run with. I still smile to myself recalling Hawkins with the ball in front of goal having to give it up for a free on the wing because Selwood lost it on his way to the bench. I am sure our players will remind him of that incident at the proper time.

Midfield match ups will be interesting. Interesting to see what they are at the first bounce and how they evolve during the game.

If Kossie is at the first bounce, who will the cats put on him?

I think our midfield will win out and expose Geelong on the open space of the G.

Revising upward my initial winning margin of 3 goals to 5 goals.

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On 4/8/2021 at 8:40 PM, Lucifer's Hero said:

The three field umpires are also listed at the bottom of the AFL Team lists each week although you do have to "expand" the list

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18 hours ago, CHF said:

h. I still smile to myself recalling Hawkins with the ball in front of goal having to give it up for a free on the wing because Selwood lost it on his way to the bench. I am sure our players will remind him of that incident at the prope

Twas footy Gold.

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