Jump to content

  • Podcast:      

  • Podcast:     

My Round 4 Preview and Prediction


CHF
 Share


Recommended Posts

12 minutes ago, Jjrogan said:

Our present scoring efficiency (46 %) versus the opposition's (61% ) is about as extreme as it gets. Any reversion to the mean will be welcomed.  

Overall we're started the year very strong and balanced. Our ratio of scoring shots to opposition is actually only second best because the doggies had a bye last week.   

If we dominate the midfield one of these weeks it has potential to be a blow out.

Huh?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Dees will be in front all game after the first goal (to Geelong from a free kick for nothing to Hawkins in front of goal). By the end of the 4th qtr, Dees will have amassed over 100 points again and Geelong will be humiliated with less than 40 points scored.

'Carna Dees! 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites


4 minutes ago, Jjrogan said:

Bad joke.  Better said, playing North will boost everyone's percentage and scoring stats this year. 

Oh, ok, now don't do that again and stop feeding my paranoia. I've been to Tassie for 4 games in recent years and lost every one. The last thing on my mind is an increase in percentage. I just want to win down there.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just an aside. When are the umpires for any match announced publicly? I had a quick look at the AFL site and no result for our match. Am I looking in the wrong place or not following the right clicks so to speak. The reason I ask is that Geelong are the leagues worst culprits for staging, going to ground with no evident contact, pretending to get hit high when it was a chest bump and sniping when they think they can get away with it. Impartial umpires would help.  

Edited by maximum bob
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, maximum bob said:

Just an aside. When are the umpires for any match announced publicly? I had a quick look at the AFL site and no result for our match. Am I looking in the wrong place or not following the right clicks so to speak. The reason I ask is that Geelong are the leagues worst culprits for staging, going to ground with no evident contact, pretending to get hit high when it was a chest bump and sniping when they think they can get away with it. Impartial umpires would help.  

Listed on the umpires website each week:  https://aflua.com.au/umpire-appointments/

Round 4:  https://aflua.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021-AFL-Season-Umpire-Appointments-Round-4-edit.pdf

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, dworship said:

Oh, ok, now don't do that again and stop feeding my paranoia. I've been to Tassie for 4 games in recent years and lost every one. The last thing on my mind is an increase in percentage. I just want to win down there.

Me to Dworship

This is never going to be a given we will have a better chance V Bulldogs or Port

I will be taking the odds with North Thnank you

Link to comment
Share on other sites


From the first bounce, maintain a strong defensive structure and run run run. Tell Langdon, Hunt, Kozzi, Gus, Alex to run non stop in the first Q. Kick straight and the game should be blown open. 

the Cats don’t have a plan B. So when we are up by 30 we can play defensively and handle their BS tactics

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Couple of thoughts in no particular order, with selective use of stats where it suits me!

In rounds two and three Geelong only managed four goals in each second half. 

Leads me to think that without Dangerfield providing the inside-50s, score involvements, goal assists and any other offensive stat you care to name as well as clearances, Geelong struggle to sustain scoring power.

Mitch Duncan (not Selwood) is Geelong's no.2 for just about everything that Dangerfield is no.1.

Tom Hawkins isn't just Geelong's leading goal-kicker with more than double any other, he is also their leading generator of scores for others (goal assists, score involvements) and even their best pressure forward.

Stanley/Blicavs are sharing ruck duties approximately 2/1 and Stanley is getting much more involved in general play than he ever has before.  Fascinating match up for Gawn/Jackson.

Tom Stewart warrants a defensive forward on him to limit his rebound as no other defenders bring the same quality of counter-attack.

Isaac Smith has had a grand total of 5 contested possessions after three rounds of football and must be forced.

Geelong have an unusual defence with almost all of them being 191cm+ but the tallest being Henderson at 196cm then Kolodjashnij at 193cm.  It's a real shame Brown isn't available to stretch them, but Gawn will have a major advantage up there if he isn't being used to plug holes in front of Hawkins. 

On the flipside, Geelong don't have the kind of mobility in defence to control the Nibbler, Spargo, Viney, Jordan, Pickett swarm who are all in the top 30 for tackles inside 50 this season (along with, surprisingly, McDonald and Fritsch, with Jackson also just outside).

Put another way, the Cats are in the very lowest group for inside 50s against them, and will be playing the AFL's top inside-50 team, and they don't have the players to cope well with chaos in their defence and are playing against the best forward pressure team (!!!) in the AFL right now. They will be relying on midfielders running hard to get back, over and over. Old midfielders.  Old midfielders who they also need to be doing all the inside-50 work.

I say, play on like crazy and be willing to bomb it to the contest if there is no clear option.  Just this once.

The little guys will kick 10 between them.

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, leave it to deever said:

Heres hopimg the umpires dont get an early jump on us?

Sounds silly, doesn't it? Sadly, it's true. Umpires are the only negative of this game against Geelong this weekend. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A bit of an update on my preview and prediction –

There is talk over at the Kardy park site that OÇonnor with a hard tag on Oliver will cause Oliver to lose it and lash out and give away frees. I believe that he will learn from last week and more play the ball – really revert to ‘see ball – get ball’ and let the tag take care of itself. Early in last week’s game he got a few frees for holding and although he did not get a lot of possessions, he still had 3 center clearances by halftime.

I will back him to come back from his first half last week.

If I was a Cats supporter I would be more concerned about Selwood’s reaction to a possible Viney tag/run with. I still smile to myself recalling Hawkins with the ball in front of goal having to give it up for a free on the wing because Selwood lost it on his way to the bench. I am sure our players will remind him of that incident at the proper time.

Midfield match ups will be interesting. Interesting to see what they are at the first bounce and how they evolve during the game.

If Kossie is at the first bounce, who will the cats put on him?

I think our midfield will win out and expose Geelong on the open space of the G.

Revising upward my initial winning margin of 3 goals to 5 goals.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 4/8/2021 at 8:40 PM, Lucifer's Hero said:

The three field umpires are also listed at the bottom of the AFL Team lists each week although you do have to "expand" the list

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, CHF said:

h. I still smile to myself recalling Hawkins with the ball in front of goal having to give it up for a free on the wing because Selwood lost it on his way to the bench. I am sure our players will remind him of that incident at the prope

Twas footy Gold.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
  • Match Previews, Reports & Articles  

    EYES ON RED & BLUE by Wilma from West Perth

    It was a great weekend for the Red and the Blue on this side of the Nullarbor.   On Saturday, West Perth bested Claremont by two goals after leading all day with the exception of a few early minutes to take out the WAFL Premiership and on Sunday, Melbourne scored a five goal win over Fremantle with a stunning four goals to zip in the final term.   Again, it was the red and the blue leading nearly all day to record their fifth win from six games.   The ou

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    THE TRADING CHRONICLES by The Oracle

    Part One - ZERO HOUR, 9AM The AFL Trade Period begins in earnest at 9.00am amid the announcement of a bombshell by North Melbourne’s 2021 Number 1 draft pick Jason Horne-Francis that he wants to leave the club and return to his home state to play for Port Adelaide.  The Herald Sun is reporting that “Horne-Francis will cite the instability at North Melbourne this year in his first season“ along with a likely continuation of chaos as a result of the uncertainty surrounding coach Alastair

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Special Features 1

    BLUE VIBE AT IKON by Meggs

    It was such a nice vibe at Ikon on Friday night.     Princes Park looked in excellent condition, a relaxed but modest crowd and President Kate Roffey and CEO Gary Pert in attendance, greeting fans and shaking hands.     It was an evening with little to complain about for Dees supporters, save for some drizzling rain, a few missed scoring opportunities and the fact that the Dees as raging favourites duly took the four points.   Carlton was always going to struggle to cover

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    BLUES AWAY by Meggs

    This Round 5 clash against the Blues at Princes Park (officially known as Ikon Park) is a great chance for the Dees to bounce back to the winning circle following our top-of-the-table loss to Brisbane last week.     Carlton will be missing several key players with the pundits calling 10 to nil.  Raging favouritism is never a comfortable thing for Melbourne supporters but we simply must deliver on Friday night.   History has seen these teams play four times since 2017 with the Dee

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

    LIONS POUNCE by Meggs

    Early Sunday afternoon Meggs was coffeeing in Mornington and witnessing hail, thunder, lightning, rain, wind and feeling the freezing temperatures and knowing all these elements were heading towards Casey Fields.  Oh dear.  The Brisbane coach had said during the week that he wanted the game moved to Marvel because “if you're going to have two of the better teams in the comp playing, (it warrants) a venue and deck that suits the occasion”.  However, Casey Fields was uncharacteristi

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    RAINING PREMIERS by KC from Casey

    If the threatening dark grey skies that loomed above Ikon Park before the VFL Grand Final didn’t provide a sufficiently inhospitable reception for our visitors from sunny Queensland, the rains that bucketed down after quarter time certainly did. For years, the Casey Demons have welcomed opposing teams at their home fortress with rain, hail, wind and frosty conditions and it was just Southport’s luck that they met those conditions head on in the VFL’s big dance. They suited Casey’s skillful

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Casey Articles

    PRIDE OF VICTORIA by KC from Casey

    When Casey Demons coach Mark Corrigan talks about his charges putting their “best foot forward” on Sunday when they take on the Southport Sharks in the 2022 VFL Grand Final, it’s a signal that his team is on a mission not only for themselves but in  the name of their forebears, the Springvale Scorpions, and indeed for the pride and honour of the entire State of Victoria. The VFL club now known as the Casey Demons last won a premiership flag under the name of the Springvale Scorpions but tha

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Casey Articles

    NARRM AT HOME by Meggs

    For the fourth consecutive week, and the second week as the mighty Narrm, we take on a Top 8 team. Could this match be a preview of the Season 7 Grand Final?   Our opponents this week, Brisbane, stand undefeated atop the AFLW ladder after slaying the struggling Freo, and the unrated Giants and Gold Coast.  After amassing 225 points for and only 56 against, for a percentage of 401.8%, the pundits are claiming the Lions have the best attack the competition has ever seen.   Brisbane

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

    CHANGES 2022 by The Oracle

    Part 1: The year we stood still (or did we?).  Premiership coach David Parkin who  coincidentally turned 80 yesterday, famously used to say that even a premiership team needs to bring at least five new players into the fold in order to advance from year to year and therefore, if this adage remains true, then the Melbourne Football Club really did stand still in 2022.  Of the players recruited after the club’s premiership in September, 2021, only Luke Dunstan (5 games) managed to provid

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Special Features
  • Tell a friend

    Love Demonland? Tell a friend!

×
×
  • Create New...