Free Kick Differential 2021

[FireInTheBennelly 4,104]

22 minutes ago, CYB said:

Im ok with -7 or +/- 10 for that matter as its around the mark of being neutral.. But for crying out load +80 is absurd...What about the Tigers at -74 i would be equally livid if i was a Tigers supporter...I dont hear them carrying on about it too much though.

The interesting stat would be the differential trend line from week-to-week transposed with the umpires....now that would tell an interesting story. 

As far as I'm concerned the tigers differential is easily explained. They're trying to break the umpires. Constantly infringing at every opportunity, knowing the umpires can't physically ping them for everything. At some point the umpires will give up, but it's taken longer than I think they even expected.

[Little Goffy 14,793]

Just to be clear. I don't think there's an umpiring conspiracy. I just think the Dogs are a little bit, well, you know... cheaty.

And the AFL leadership has opened the door for it with their constant reactiveness and the accumulating complexity of rationalisations that flow from it.

Umpires are filling out three pages of paperwork in their head every time there's a contested possession.

Edited July 28, 2021 by Little Goffy

[Melb-A-Toast 257]

Free kick differential is an isolated stat that cannot show the actual impact.

For more context, there needs to be:

Unpaid free kicks for & against

Incorrect free kicks for and against

50/50 frees for & against

 

So this stat alone is just useless, unless you want to get riled up, which is everyone's prerogative.

[dworship 3,343]

Can someone enlighten me regarding clearances and free kicks. Are free kicks counted as a clearance when given at ballups?

[Deemania since 56 6,773]

20 hours ago, Melb-A-Toast said:

Free kick differential is an isolated stat that cannot show the actual impact.

For more context, there needs to be:

Unpaid free kicks for & against

Incorrect free kicks for and against

50/50 frees for & against

 

So this stat alone is just useless, unless you want to get riled up, which is everyone's prerogative.

The point about the statistic being useless is valid but this is the major reason why - over the years, creeping into our game - there have been growing tendencies for umpires (and under the oversight of the AFL with umpiring) to affect the conduct and eventual outcome of so many games for 'situated' purposes.

There is too much game-to-game evidence of this deliberated uneveness within the rulings of our competition to merely allocate such opinion to randomised conspiracy theories; thousands of spectators from the complete range of the supported base see, hear and sit in amazed confusion - and mounting, intolerant anger - due to the latent powers of the whistle to award frees, interrupt the status of games between two sides at a time, and endure the inconsistencies that these wilful behaviours from umpires elicit.

Such inconsistencies and fabrications essentially severely limit the integrity of our game like a spreading plague of deceptions, hidden from view or scrutiny (as best as possible) with no attention to the statistical utility that alleged conspirators might generate. Crticism is ignored and a selected status quo is nurtured. Competitive interference reigns for the benefit of the few at the expense of the many. 

 

[jnrmac 20,305]

On 7/26/2021 at 5:08 PM, Demonland said:

We’re in the negative now 

 

Where are those who say the top teams should get the frees as they play in front etc

Adelaide Carlton and north make a mockery of that.....

 

[La Dee-vina Comedia 17,072]

2 hours ago, Deemania since 56 said:

The point about the statistic being useless is valid but this is the major reason why - over the years, creeping into our game - there have been growing tendencies for umpires (and under the oversight of the AFL with umpiring) to affect the conduct and eventual outcome of so many games for 'situated' purposes.

There is too much game-to-game evidence of this deliberated uneveness within the rulings of our competition to merely allocate such opinion to randomised conspiracy theories; thousands of spectators from the complete range of the supported base see, hear and sit in amazed confusion - and mounting, intolerant anger - due to the latent powers of the whistle to award frees, interrupt the status of games between two sides at a time, and endure the inconsistencies that these wilful behaviours from umpires elicit.

Such inconsistencies and fabrications essentially severely limit the integrity of our game like a spreading plague of deceptions, hidden from view or scrutiny (as best as possible) with no attention to the statistical utility that alleged conspirators might generate. Crticism is ignored and a selected status quo is nurtured. Competitive interference reigns for the benefit of the few at the expense of the many. 

 

Um. What?

[Demonland 73,846]

Heading further down the ladder and almost in danger of a bottom 4 finish and possible relegation. Round 23 in Geelong could seal our fate.

[Satan 2,915]

11 minutes ago, Demonland said:

Heading further down the ladder and almost in danger of a bottom 4 finish and possible relegation. Round 23 in Geelong could seal our fate.

These stats might be accurate , but one needs to know  where games where played and if there was crowd? But as mentioned , did frees you receive location  etc . Its the lack of consistency that drives fans mad. The deliberate out on full at adelaide not paid , cost us a minimum of 2 points and a lot less  unwanted media coverage that week.

[tiers 2,875]

A 162 differential over 20 games between doggies and toiges is not acceptable, regardless of how the numbers can be parsed and analysed.

In each case the numbers +/- are more than double the next club. Something is clearly wrong in a game where free numbers should balance out over a season.

However this works out I would like our dees to drink some of the same Freeade as the doggies to improve our position. Last night against weagles was not a good start.

[leave it to deever 17,598]

5 hours ago, Demonland said:

Heading further down the ladder and almost in danger of a bottom 4 finish and possible relegation. Round 23 in Geelong could seal our fate.

Weagles are in the plus...no surprises there.

[The heart beats true 18,188]

How can one team AVERAGE 4 more free kicks than their opponent EVERY week? It’s not even like this is the first time it’s happened. 

https://www.sportingnews.com/au/amp/afl/news/a-procession-of-clubs-complain-to-afl-about-bulldogs-free-kicks-damien-barrett-western-dogs/3v04w7zxcsah14xx243jf8tzr

[Whispering_Jack 31,285]

5 hours ago, Demonland said:

Heading further down the ladder and almost in danger of a bottom 4 finish and possible relegation. Round 23 in Geelong could seal our fate.

And look at that! Our 2 remaining games are against teams in the top 4. A disgrace. 

[The Third Eye 288]

2 hours ago, Whispering_Jack said:

And look at that! Our 2 remaining games are against teams in the top 4. A disgrace. 

Too right. Can’t believe that 4 of the 5 teams we play twice are in that top 6. More than a disgrace, it’s a conspiracy.

[spirit of norm smith 16,651]

Dees v Dogs frees 11-25 in favour of dogs 

Dees v Eagles frees 17-28 in favour of Eagles 

we might we need to contact umps advisor for  some enlightening insights 

[Webber 10,641]

15 hours ago, The heart beats true said:

How can one team AVERAGE 4 more free kicks than their opponent EVERY week? It’s not even like this is the first time it’s happened. 

https://www.sportingnews.com/au/amp/afl/news/a-procession-of-clubs-complain-to-afl-about-bulldogs-free-kicks-damien-barrett-western-dogs/3v04w7zxcsah14xx243jf8tzr

4 years on, same story, no solution. The weirdest part of our multi-billion dollar game. 

[Jumping Jack Clennett 1,825]

I think our persistent tendency to be on the wrong side of the free count is crucially significant in our prospects of becoming a powerful club.

I think we need a strategic approach to fixing this. Here are some suggestions  from me, and I'd welcome other Demonlanders to contribute.....

1./ invite senior umpires to training. Tell them we're worried about our players giving away too many frees. Ask them what we should do to stop it. Especially invite umpires who have been noted to treat us badly(Nicholls, No.22, Margetts )

2./Instruct our coaches to study footage of the Bulldogs, to try to determine how they do so well with frees ,year after  year .

3./ Without complaining publicly about the umpires, make it clear, through the media, that our free kick differential is unacceptable to us.  I think umpires need to be aware that some  free statistics look bad. It's been noticeable on occasions ,when the half-time stats are bad ( say, 12 to 4), there appears to be an attempt to even it out.  It's as if the umps have been informed of the discrepancy.

4./ On field....be polite to umps. Chat to them happily in the rooms , and before the bounce while waiting for the ads to finish.Always pick up the ball for the umps and hand it back with a grin after a skewed bounce. It's worth trying to ingratiate yourselves. It might just turn a 50:50 our way soon after.  I loved Max's comment at Docklands that day in 2020 after a dubious ruck free.."that's ruck-craft, bigboy!"...BUT..he's suffered with adjudications on 50:50's ever since.

What do other Demonlanders think?

[Demonland 73,846]

[Lord Travis 10,800]

4 minutes ago, Demonland said:

From a West Coast supporter page?! Is that poster blind as well as dumb? He gave them 10 free kicks, but only gave us 2!

If that’s having it in for them, I’d hate to see what a favorable run looks like!

[Hellaintabadplacetobe 4,308]

22 hours ago, Demonland said:

Heading further down the ladder and almost in danger of a bottom 4 finish and possible relegation. Round 23 in Geelong could seal our fate.

What’s Joel Selwoods differential for the year? 
 

He was really stiff to have a free against for that head high bump he laid on Taylor…..

[roy11 3,995]

1 minute ago, Demonland said:

If both sides are complaining about the umpire, then they were generally ok/fair or downright terrible. On Monday I think they were ok, paid some soft ones by the laws of the game, made a few errors both ways.

Wish there was an easier way to filter "dumb free kicks" and also "soft free kicks" from that differential without having to re-watch every game aha

[Mazer Rackham 14,971]

3 minutes ago, Lord Travis said:

From a West Coast supporter page?! Is that poster blind as well as dumb? He gave them 10 free kicks, but only gave us 2!

If that’s having it in for them, I’d hate to see what a favorable run looks like!

Two frees to an opposition club is two too many.

That's how you know the umps have got it in for you. Turns out they're all in it, and they've all got it in for the Eagles.

What is left for a decent man but to show his strong feelings by booing?

As Nelson Mandela said, "Let freedom reign. The sun never set on-- OH COME ON YOU MAGGOT! HE DROPPED IT! HE [censored] DROPPED IT! TOUCHED! IN THE BACK! NOT FIFTEEN! DELIBERATE!! BOOOOOOOO!!!!! .... um, challenge their very humanity. Or something."

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

12 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Dees v Dogs frees 11-25 in favour of dogs 

Dees v Eagles frees 17-28 in favour of Eagles 

we might we need to contact umps advisor for  some enlightening insights 

We need to start wearing our royal blue jumper more, it’s the umpires favourite colour.

[loges 6,767]

I must admit when Nichols paid the free for a hold behind the play where the ball had travelled to plus a 50m penalty, I wondered if he was making it up.

[The heart beats true 18,188]

I thought the umpiring on a Monday night was pretty even until the restart. That last 15 minutes I think there was 2-3 clear frees missed to us, while the Eagles seemed to get everything. In the end it didn’t impact the result which is all that matters really.

The crowd noise suggests a lot to the umpires. I legitimately believe that had we had supporters at the Dogs game the umpires would have become aware of the discrepancy and thought twice before paying them more frees in the last. The crowd noise suggested to the umps on Monday that the Eagles were being short changed, and they began umpiring as such.

Crowds make a huge difference to the psychology of decision making. You only need to watch any deliberate decision to realise that. If the crowd don’t utter a sound it doesn’t even enter the umpires thought process to pay a free kick.