PREGAME: Rd 01 vs Fremantle

[Drunkn167 5,093]

Just secured a ticket on level 2 of the MCC reserve 

Can’t bloody wait

[Longsufferingnomore 1,463]

Got mine Level 1. Only 5 more sleeps!!!!!!!!!

[loges 6,022]

2 hours ago, Clint Bizkit said:

Anyone think we will win?

2019 Clint we came up against a young Port Adelaide side and were favourites to win. We were underdone and they ran us off our legs. Sound familiar? No I'm not confident.

[Axis of Bob 10,210]

In 2020 we were 6th in clearance differential. 3rd in 2019 and 4th in 2018. We have been comfortably better than our opponents for the past 3 years.

So we have been consistently good at clearances. The total clearance statistics only reflect that our games have involved fewer stoppages in the past two seasons, not that we have been poor at them.

[JimmyGadson 3,455]

11 minutes ago, Axis of Bob said:

In 2020 we were 6th in clearance differential. 3rd in 2019 and 4th in 2018. We have been comfortably better than our opponents for the past 3 years.

So we have been consistently good at clearances. The total clearance statistics only reflect that our games have involved fewer stoppages in the past two seasons, not that we have been poor at them.

But we have been poorer at them..  

Well coached and drilled opposition sides figured out how to combat our clearance dominance pretty early on in 2018 and have adapted since. Not only that, the better mids in the comp have also learnt to rove to Max, sometimes better than our own players. Take Bont and Macrae from last weekend as the first good example of the 2021 season. It's happened plenty last year and the year before. 

Other teams have adapted, we haven't. Goodwin continues to want to play his rigid and one-dimensional game style which has ultimately seen the decline of our performance year upon year since 2018.

 

 

 

 

Edited March 14, 2021 by JimmyGadson

[Dee Dee 1,043]

30 minutes ago, Drunkn167 said:

Just secured a ticket on level 2 of the MCC reserve 

Can’t bloody wait

Got level 3 in front of Grey Smith Bar, very handy if needed! So if we win I’ll need to use it and if we don’t I’ll definitely need to use it?!

[DubDee 20,563]

I think we’ll win. It won’t be pretty though and it will be close

[Lord Nev 13,511]

10 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Are those clearance numbers totals or differentials?

All teams ranked by averages.

[Lord Nev 13,511]

32 minutes ago, Axis of Bob said:

In 2020 we were 6th in clearance differential. 3rd in 2019 and 4th in 2018. We have been comfortably better than our opponents for the past 3 years.

So we have been consistently good at clearances. The total clearance statistics only reflect that our games have involved fewer stoppages in the past two seasons, not that we have been poor at them.

The point I was making using teams ranked by averages was the differential in hitouts and clearances. To me those stats say we are nowhere near as efficient as we should be in that area.

Also, in 2020 we were ranked 12th for centre clearance differential. In 2019 we were 3rd.

Also in 2020 we were ranked 3rd for hitout differential.

So whichever way you look at it, there's a disconnect there between hitouts and clearances.

 

[DeeSpencer 23,122]

23 minutes ago, JimmyGadson said:

But we have been poorer at them..  

Well coached and drilled opposition sides figured out how to combat our clearance dominance pretty early on in 2018 and have adapted since. Not only that, the better mids in the comp have also learnt to rove to Max, sometimes better than our own players. Take Bont and Macrae from last weekend as the first good example of the 2021 season. It's happened plenty last year and the year before. 

Other teams have adapted, we haven't. Goodwin continues to want to play his rigid and one-dimensional game style which has ultimately seen the decline of our performance year upon year since 2018.

 

Goodwin made a successful change of defensive system last year. Defending deeper and being more comfortable conceded inside 50’s.

We have a new midfield coach, a clear sign the club are aware of issues.

I would’ve made list changes - out Brayshaw and/or Viney, in flanker, Rivers/Salem on ball. But we never get the inside word on what deals were available or even know who makes those calls.

It’s largely semantics but I don’t think Goodwin isn’t aware of problems, he just can’t fix them. It’s still his responsibility- the list and skills aren’t where they should be. It’s just there’s no easy fixes.

Our best fixes last year were Melksham on ball for more kicking. Melksham was the answer! And pissing Oliver off so much by coaching him to do better, which by reports had him thinking of leaving. 

[Axis of Bob 10,210]

17 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

The point I was making using teams ranked by averages was the differential in hitouts and clearances. To me those stats say we are nowhere near as efficient as we should be in that area.

Also, in 2020 we were ranked 12th for centre clearance differential. In 2019 we were 3rd.

Also in 2020 we were ranked 3rd for hitout differential.

So whichever way you look at it, there's a disconnect there between hitouts and clearances.

 

And the point I'm making is that there has been very little difference between our strong clearance numbers in 2018 and our strong clearance numbers in 2020, just the number of stoppages that we have been involved in when compared with the rest of the competition. Slipping for 4th overall to 6th overall is barely significant (especially since we were 3rd in between), as it still says we are a top level clearance team. 

Of the top 7 clearance teams (differential) last year, 4 of them had a negative hitout differential. We were one of those three teams (along with West Coast and Gold Coast) that had both a positive clearance and hitout differential. Based on the stats, we are a very effective clearance team and its is a strength of ours. 

People think about hitouts like it's 1975, where a dominant tap ruck could feed a midfield. But 50 years ago (even 20 years ago) there was a lot of space around the stoppages so a tap ruck could create more advantage. Nowadays it's far more about the midfielders whilst the ruck is more dominant for what else he can do (ie, mark, tackle, win contested footy). They need to not be terrible in the ruck, but serviceable seems to be just as effective as excellent. The correlation between hitouts and clearances is very weak across the competition, so I don't know whether you can make an argument us being 3rd for hitouts and 6th for clearances represents an issue. 

[Diamond_Jim 11,742]

We should be marketing this game to the neutral supporter as an easy to enter game.

Might put a few dollars in our coffers if we could get 10k or more of general admission.

[old dee 22,848]

6 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

We should be marketing this game to the neutral supporter as an easy to enter game.

Might put a few dollars in our coffers if we could get 10k or more of general admission.

If you were a neutral supporter DJ would you go to game of none finalists from the previous year? 
Is there anyone out there that is that desperate to go to a game? I will be surprised if there are more than 25k at this game. It will make a good case for those who were crying out for it to be moved to The dome. 
If you take the emotion out of where games are played we should play most of games at the dome. 

Edited March 14, 2021 by old dee

[Tarax Club 2,912]

2 hours ago, Clintosaurus said:

Yep. Confident about being 3-0 too.

Pleasing to see some dinky dyed in the wool (red and blue) optimism can be still found here.

[roy11 2,924]

1 hour ago, Dee Dee said:

Got level 3 in front of Grey Smith Bar, very handy if needed! So if we win I’ll need to use it and if we don’t I’ll definitely need to use it?!

Likewise. Will it be like the cricket where we can drink in our seat? Not sure if i've missed announcement about this. 

[Axis of Bob 10,210]

42 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

All teams ranked by averages.

You can't make that point with anything based on total clearances (like an average) because it doesn't adjust for the number of stoppages that a team participates in each game. It needs to be a differential in order to adjust for that. In fact, one of the most interesting stats in all of this is .....

.... Melbourne were the best team in the league at preventing opposition clearances. Teams had only 26.9 clearances against us last year, comfortably better than any other team. 

Probably better would be to work out the probability of each team winning a clearance. We were +6% chance of winning a clearance (6th best), with Port being best on +16% and Adelaide worst being -20%. Interestingly Richmond were 16th with a -12% probability.

[DemonLad5 1,637]

Thought Jordan was pretty average against the Dogs

I think Chandler will play

[TRIGON 4,715]

 

1 hour ago, Dee Dee said:

Got level 3 in front of Grey Smith Bar, very handy if needed! So if we win I’ll need to use it and if we don’t I’ll definitely need to use it?!

Used to do the same; after quarter time it was starting to become an expensive habit.

[Winners at last 4,721]

Level 2 ... MCC ... 

[JimmyGadson 3,455]

1 hour ago, DeeSpencer said:

Goodwin made a successful change of defensive system last year. Defending deeper and being more comfortable conceded inside 50’s.

We have a new midfield coach, a clear sign the club are aware of issues.

I would’ve made list changes - out Brayshaw and/or Viney, in flanker, Rivers/Salem on ball. But we never get the inside word on what deals were available or even know who makes those calls.

It’s largely semantics but I don’t think Goodwin isn’t aware of problems, he just can’t fix them. It’s still his responsibility- the list and skills aren’t where they should be. It’s just there’s no easy fixes.

Our best fixes last year were Melksham on ball for more kicking. Melksham was the answer! And pissing Oliver off so much by coaching him to do better, which by reports had him thinking of leaving. 

He made a tweak to our defensive system, hardly game-style changing.

And the fact that there has been little to no list change and/or positional change supports my claim. 

We still see inside mids rolling onto a wing/half forward. We see the same mix in the middle. 

I saw little to no change in the way we entered inside 50 over the first two practice games. 

It's all very much the same. 

One would think that with a midfield brigade like ours, we would trade aggressively for players that really compliment what Goodwin is trying to achieve forward of centre. 

I just simply cannot believe we didn't chase Zac Williams hard to really add a dynamic element to our starting four. Adam Saad, Tom Phillips, Shaun and Jack Higgins... 

These players should have been replacements for ANB at a forward flank, AVB through the middle, Jones, Brayshaw and Harmes on a wing, Hunt at half back. 

I just can't see where our improvement comes from this year when compared to the improvement from teams around us who have meaningfully added to their lists. 

Max and May are closing in on twighlight years. One would have thought we'd be doing everything in our power to reshuffle the list. 

Edited March 15, 2021 by JimmyGadson

[Diamond_Jim 11,742]

31 minutes ago, old dee said:

If you were a neutral supporter DJ would you go to game of none finalists from the previous year? 
Is there anyone out there that is that desperate to go to a game? I will be surprised if there are more than 25k at this game. It will make a good case for those who were crying out for it to be moved to The dome. 
If you take the emotion out of where games are played we should play most of games at the dome. 

sad but true. I often used my AFL membership to head along to a lesser game. Admittedly it is usually because one of the teams has a star player you want to watch.

I'd be happy to go along and see Brisbane or WCE play the Bulldogs for example. (Hate the woof woof that goes on the scoreboard after a goal... nearly as bad as North's "zoom".)

[JimmyGadson 3,455]

28 minutes ago, Axis of Bob said:

You can't make that point with anything based on total clearances (like an average) because it doesn't adjust for the number of stoppages that a team participates in each game. It needs to be a differential in order to adjust for that. In fact, one of the most interesting stats in all of this is .....

.... Melbourne were the best team in the league at preventing opposition clearances. Teams had only 26.9 clearances against us last year, comfortably better than any other team. 

Preventing? 

Or have they figured out that letting us win first possession isn't the end of the world given our propensity to turn it over when under a bit of heat? 

[Lord Nev 13,511]

31 minutes ago, Axis of Bob said:

You can't make that point with anything based on total clearances (like an average) because it doesn't adjust for the number of stoppages that a team participates in each game. It needs to be a differential in order to adjust for that. In fact, one of the most interesting stats in all of this is .....

.... Melbourne were the best team in the league at preventing opposition clearances. Teams had only 26.9 clearances against us last year, comfortably better than any other team.

 

I'm not sure you can discount me using averages and then use them yourself.

 

51 minutes ago, Axis of Bob said:

And the point I'm making is that there has been very little difference between our strong clearance numbers in 2018 and our strong clearance numbers in 2020, just the number of stoppages that we have been involved in when compared with the rest of the competition. Slipping for 4th overall to 6th overall is barely significant (especially since we were 3rd in between), as it still says we are a top level clearance team. 

Of the top 7 clearance teams (differential) last year, 4 of them had a negative hitout differential. We were one of those three teams (along with West Coast and Gold Coast) that had both a positive clearance and hitout differential. Based on the stats, we are a very effective clearance team and its is a strength of ours. 

People think about hitouts like it's 1975, where a dominant tap ruck could feed a midfield. But 50 years ago (even 20 years ago) there was a lot of space around the stoppages so a tap ruck could create more advantage. Nowadays it's far more about the midfielders whilst the ruck is more dominant for what else he can do (ie, mark, tackle, win contested footy). They need to not be terrible in the ruck, but serviceable seems to be just as effective as excellent. The correlation between hitouts and clearances is very weak across the competition, so I don't know whether you can make an argument us being 3rd for hitouts and 6th for clearances represents an issue. 

 

2018: 1st for centre clearance differential.

2020: 12th for centre clearance differential.

I disagree that's a 'strength' and that there's "very little difference" there. That's a big drop.

I do very much appreciate your in-depth analysis, even though I don't agree it's still really interesting to read.

 

Edited March 15, 2021 by Lord Nev

[Axis of Bob 10,210]

 

1 hour ago, JimmyGadson said:

But we have been poorer at them..  

Well coached and drilled opposition sides figured out how to combat our clearance dominance pretty early on in 2018 and have adapted since.

Just now, JimmyGadson said:

Preventing? 

Or have they figured out that letting us win first possession isn't the end of the world given our propensity to turn it over when under a bit of heat? 

So your argument is that teams have figured out how to stop our clearances ..... by allowing us to win clearances? I'm sorry, but this is getting pretty silly now. 

[DeeSpencer 23,122]

3 minutes ago, JimmyGadson said:

I just simply cannot believe we didn't chase Zac Williams hard to really add a dynamic element to our starting four. Adam Saad, Tom Phillips, Shaun and Jack Higgins... 

These players should have been replacements for ANB at a forward flank, AVB through the middle, Jones, Brayshaw and Harmes on a wing, Hunt at half back. 

I just can't see where our improvement comes from this year when compared to the improvement from teams around us who have meaningfully added to their lists. 

Max and May are closing in on twighlight years. One would have thought we'd be doing everything in our power to reshuffle the list. 

Agree with all of that. But I have to assume no one wanted McDonald or Brayshaw on 700k a year. And we paid big overs for Tomlinson and even Langdon (yes Langdon cost too much IMO).

I wouldn’t have signed Ben Brown and have instead chucked another 20k at McKernan as depth, then put that money in to a outside runner. Cut Mitch Brown for another cheap as chips runner too. Retired Jones and Jetta to free up cash for a mid tier option.

In terms of improvement the best possible version of our backline has a lot of talent. The midfield can get twice as good if the lesser players support Gawn, Oliver and Tracc - whilst those 3 elite players combine individual brilliance with team play. I don’t know if Brown, Weid, Fritsch and role playing smalls are enough or will even work but for this year at least the biggest test is on Goodwin and Yze sorting the mids out.