From Gawn to gone

[Deespicable 2,886]

Over the next few weeks, a lot of us Demonland ‘experts’ will try and pass judgment on who should be traded and what we can get for certain players and let’s face it, it’s not an exact science. But in an effort to avoid some of the fanciful wishful thinking from all of us, here’s my view on player value. Please feel free to adjust to your own version and pass comment – don’t copy whole thing, just cut and paste the ones you want to dispute.

And in the interests of being fair to our entire list, everyone has a trade value, although clearly quite a few are contracted for a season or more and are off limits in the real world. But Demonland is not a real world, is it!

Max Gawn He turns 29 in December and given the longevity of ruckmen he should have five more years left in him depending on how his knees hold up. He’s our skipper and our brand and he’s in his prime, so it would take a Wayne Carey-style dust-up for him to want to leave, but what if Rhys Stanley has another poor finals series for Geelong, and Danger came knocking at his door with talk about one last Dance. Would two of their lower-end first rounders get the deal done. Not for mine. I’d want a top three pick and even then I’d be grumpy about it.

Christian Petracca Fresh off an All-Australian year, his value would now be at a career high. North would offer him close to $1.5 mill a year, but what would we want for our former No.2 pick. Clearly we’d want their first pick (No.2) and maybe Ben Brown to sweeten the deal. Ain’t happening though. 

Jack Viney As a RFA this year, we have to hope that he’s keen to stay loyal as aside from Geelong, both SA clubs are sure to come knocking and the Crows should be able to offer him a virtual fortune if one of the Crouch boys leave. Jack’s only 26, so it’s his prime time and he would want us to show him the money as well in a deal that may need to be $750K a year for four years. But if Josh Mahoney can’t get it to work, and the Crows money holds sway, then a compensation pick after what would have been our first selection (ie: No.11) would be about right I reckon.  

Clayton Oliver Yes I know he’s off limits. But for the purpose of this exercise I’d want two first rounders minimum or an A-grader in return. Saad’s 26 so that sort of trade would have to come with the Dons first round pick as well. 

Steven May Maysie is finally settling in so any deal won’t happen. But what if Fremantle suddenly realised they need a quality defender and offered him top money and we were hamstrung for cash by the Viney deal. We gave up pick 6 for May, so two years on the Dockers pick 7 which will become about pick 10 this year with the academy freebies, would be about right for a guy who’s 28 and coming off one of his best years. Maybe a deal for Hayden Young could be tied in to it and just see us swap future second rounders.

Ed Langdon Having finally got one wing sorted, we won’t be moving him on. But for the purpose of the exercise, I reckon his rating has gone up this year so he’s now probably worth a late-order first rounder or early second-round pick. 

Jake Lever A few Demonlanders still can’t cop him, but there’s a lot to like about the way he goes about it and at 24, and with his knees sorted (hopefully), his prime years are coming. He’s still got two more years to go on his contract and as with May, it would take an extraordinary offer from a club such as Freo or the Gold Coast for us to play ball. His value is similar to May’s – a mid to late order first-rounder I reckon.

Angus Brayshaw  Another member of our massive ‘96ers club, Angus has long been talked about as a likely trade to Freo because of his brother, yet if you hear him speak, you know he loves us. Clearly as one of our four centre-square prime-movers, we could get by without him, so a trade makes sense if you are viewing it as a meat-market, which it’s not. But if you insist on going down that path though, then a late-order first rounder is about right or virtually a direct swap for Saad. But hopefully that won’t happen and both parties honor the contract that lasts until the end of 2022. 

Sam Weideman He finally arrived this year and hopefully with Jacko becomes a successful union. But his background and the Pies deficiency up forward means talk of them wanting him continues.  We’ve got a year on his existing deal to sort it out. But if the Pies were to press us now, then I suspect his value would be a future second rounder.

Michael Hibberd Once you hit 30, you have to be a ruckman or a freak for anyone to trade true value for you. Hibbo’s a reliable, tough percentage player, so I expect us to sign him up for another year with a second-year option. But in terms of what another club would have to give up for him, I reckon being 31 in January means it’s a set of steak-knives – swap of late order picks.

Christian Salem Christian’s kicking skills would ensure that all clubs would consider him, which they will next year when he becomes a restricted free agent. But for this year a trade would be required for the 25yo and I reckon he’s probably an early second rounder or a fairly decent player. Jeremy Finlayson almost gets there, but I’d want a little more and his value to us is way higher than the Gold Coast’s two-metre Peter. I wouldn’t give him up though, as he’s what we need down back.

Jake Melksham He turned 29 recently, so the veteran label means he gets marked harder. But I’m pleased we have two more years on his contract which is about the time that will see him out I suspect. Can’t see any other clubs getting excited about him given his age and as a result his trade value, a swap of late order picks as with Hibberd, is unfair in some respects as it doesn’t take into account what he has achieved. Interested to see if he plays as a tagger for us next year. 

Bayley Fritsch Another of our ‘96ers club, albeit a late starter. His class and marking ability means there would be a few clubs interested in him and he’s still out-of-contact I believe, although I expect that to change soon – maybe as soon as the club B&F.  But in terms of the exercise, he’s an early second rounder in my view. 

James Harmes  He’s contracted until 2024 so Harmsey is going nowhere and having made his reputation as a tagger in the 2018 finals series, I doubt other clubs would want him, even though I reckon he’s first 22 everyday of the week. But if someone wanted to buy his contract out, then a third rounder would be probably about market value. 

Aaron vandenBerg A couple of years ago the Swans almost had him for a second rounder. But now at 28 we’d be doing well to claim a third rounder for him. His foot injury means he’s probably untradeable anyway. But we all love him and if he stays on the park in 2021, then two more years at the Dees are likely. 

Jay Lockhart I’d love to know the logic behind his omission after the Dogs game way more than seeing him traded. As a rookie, it could in theory be time’s up for him. But hopefully he gets offered a two-year deal on the main list in the days ahead and hopefully also Goody gets over his miskick in the last term against the Dogs or whatever he did or didn’t do at training to [censored] him off. If he was to be delisted, then I reckon a couple of clubs will want him on their list.  

Kysaiah Pickett  One of Tubby Taylor’s trio of ticks from last year, he’s already extended his deal to 2023 so we know how much Goody likes him. He won’t be traded for anything or anybody, but if Gold Coast wanted to return to us Noah Anderson then I’d be happy to consider it.

Tom McDonald Now the trickiest player on our list, given he has two more years of a pretty healthy contract to go. I’m sure the club, and maybe his manager, will be asking around to gauge interest elsewhere but the size of his contract (around $650K) means no one will match it even if they are a bit keen to see if he can get back to his 2018 form. It would be great if the Dons were willing to make him part of a Saad deal, but we’d still have to give up our early 2^nd rounder for Saad and we’d have to probably cover half Tom’s salary. So basically I suspect we’re stuck with him and it’s now up to a fired up Tommy to come back and regain his dominance of the 200m rep circuit in January and make a case for himself to play Rd 1 for us. Don’t forget guys, he’s an excellent set-shot kick and has a strong set of marking hands, so if he regains some mobility, he’d be very handy at either end of the ground.  

Luke Jackson OK, he’s been earmarked for CHF in 2021 and first ruck in 2025. And from what we’ve seen his mobility for a big bloke at ground level is the stuff of legend, provided his hammys hold up. But let’s say West Coast made a bold play for him. What’s his value? It was No.3 pick last year and I reckon it’s about the same this year.  Would Andrew Gaff (aged 28) and the Eagles first pick (about No.15) get it done. I’d take that, others wouldn’t though.

Adam Tomlinson We signed him for four years so he’s going nowhere and pleasingly he showed some good signs as a pretty safe, tall defender down back, rather than the wingman Goody thought he had. He came to us as a RFA and at 27 and on a good deal, he’s hardly going to be looking for another trade.  But as to his value, he’s probably a third rounder.

Mitch Hannan Will be interesting to see what happens in next few days on the Mitch front. We all know he can play, but he’s yet to cement his spot and will be 27 by Round 1 next year. Being an in-betweener (too small to be a key forward) it’s tricky, but for some reason I always think John Hendrie when he gets it and I reckon if we delist him he will get another crack at it because he’s super-talented. Maybe he’ll get to the Dogs after all. In terms of trade value, he’s just an exchange of late picks I’m afraid.

Nathan Jones I think Jonesy knows what’s coming and gave it away to Gawny on the Captain’s Run when he started talking about how much he enjoyed dabbling in the coaching side of the caper.  He’s 33 in January after all. Great career, worthy and loyal club champion.

Neville Jetta He’s got a year left on his contract, so this is going to a bit awkward for us and the Lord Nev fan club.  How do you tell a super bloke and our only State-of-Origin representative that you want to reneg on a deal? You pay him out and give him a role looking after our indigenous players’ welfare – namely Kossy.  

Alex Neal-Bullen Part of our sizeable mosquito fleet and another member of our ‘96ers club. He’s also our hardest trainer and a very decent human being (off-field) and he’s contracted for another year. If Adelaide or Port wanted him, then I suspect everyone on DL would say you beauty. But I’m one who still rates him and think he’s well worth retaining. If we did offload him, then I’d be asking for a third rounder, others here would be willing to give the Crows our third rounder to take him.

Trent Rivers It’s Troy Longmuir here. “We realise we missed our chance last year but how about we give you our second rounder for him – he’s a WA boy after all.” Sorry guys, but ‘No’. In fact I’m not even sure if trading Caleb Serong would get the deal done now. Trent’s value has sky-rocketed, he’d now be worth a middle-order first rounder I reckon.

Jayden Hunt This will be an interesting one to watch in the coming weeks. He’s out of contract and for much of the past three years, out of favour with Goody. I reckon the club will try and sign him up for a couple more years but if I was him, I’d be checking out the market and I imagine his manager has been doing that most of the year. His hot run of form in the last few weeks means he’s worth a bit – probably an early third rounder from North would get it done.  But with this draft so unclear, I’d be wanting a player trade rather than a late-order guess. He’s about the same value as Peter Wright if we want to go down that path, although I reckon Jayden could again be a star down back for us if Goody let him play there.

Joel Smith As with Mr Nippy, there would be a lot of interest in Joel out there, which will surprise a few of the nongs on DL who don’t quite get what he brings to the table now that’s he’s fully grown. He’s out of contact and there’s no way he’ll be delisted, so we may have to make him a decent two-year deal to have any chance of keeping him. But for argument sake let’s say the Lions or the Giants want him, what do we get?  He’s probably only a third rounder or our third for a late second-round mark up.  

Harley Bennell  What happens on the Gold Coast, stays on the … I suspect very few people are privy to what actually happened but sadly if it’s worse than what’s reported or what he’s revealed, then there’s no way back and it’s AFL career over.

Tom Sparrow I don’t believe he’s signed a new deal yet, but I’d be surprised if it doesn’t happen at the B&F or soon after. He was taken with pick 27 two years ago and I reckon he’s probably slipped to a very early third rounder (Adelaide’s pick No.37) should such a trade be requested, which it won’t.   

Braydon Preuss He’s still got another year to run on his deal and he’s very valuable insurance for our skipper so he’s a keeper. But what if we were to recruit Peter Wright, then surely we have more bigman insurance than AAMI. If that is the case, and Preussy wanted out, then I reckon he’s a third rounder exchange to a club more likely to need him as back-up – eg: Sydney.  

Charlie Spargo As with Toby Bedford and Kade Chandler, he’s a little guy out of contract and there’s no way we can keep stockpiling them now that we have Kossie. I reckon at least one of the three has to be moved on with another one sent on his way at the end of next year. Charlie actually looks like he’s growing muscles now and as I’ve always said, he has the smarts and the skills to make it.  So I’d be keeping him for two more years and I’m sure the coach concurs with me. But on the trade market I would be very surprised if anyone offered more than an exchange of third-round picks or a fourth-rounder for him. It’s not a small world after all.   

Mitch Brown He’s at his third club and he’s just turned 30. He ain’t getting an offer anywhere else except from us.  And assuming we can move on T-Mac, then I’d definitely offer him another year.

Oscar McDonald I don’t like commenting about Oscar because it gets me worked up. But in trade terms, let’s be fair – zero chance. Maybe once we delist him a club would rookie him with a view to trialling him as a forward as we should have done three years ago.

Toby Bedford Keeping or not keeping Toby will be a tough decision and I reckon his hard work on the training track will be rewarded with another year on the rookie list. There’s no doubt he’s improving, it’s just such a tough gig when you are under 180cm. As with Spargo, he’d have little or no trade value if we went down that path, an exchange of lower-order picks maybe.  

Harrison Petty In just 11 games he showed enough to suggest he could develop into a 200-gamer before OP ruled him out for the entire season. Would be an interesting one if Adelaide or another club came courting. What if Collingwood offered up Jaidyn Stephenson for him? Obviously unless our medicos deem otherwise, we will be extending his deal – he is still only 20 after all. It is too risky for us to trade him and someone to punt on him at this stage, but I reckon he’s a second rounder at worst.

Marty Hore One of only a handful of our players to spend the season in the rehab group and I have a feeling that he might have missed the boat with us. If we still have a 44-man squad then he goes again but I suspect it will be cut to about 40, which means we have to delist about 8 players before the draft and he will be on the edge of that cull. Can’t see him getting another chance if that happens, even though he’s a very classy kick.

Oskar Baker After a long rehab finally got back on the park for our last three games and justified his contract for next season. For the purpose of the exercise, if the Suns or Lions wanted to get him back to Qld, which they don’t, then he’d be an exchange of fourth round picks.

Josh Wagner Got his chance late and did pretty well against Saints, but his lack of vibrant run hurt him and us against the Swans. Unfortunately he’s just a smidge too short to play a key position and even though he dominates at VFL level and the 15-a-side games this year I can’t see us retaining him for another year.  At 26 it would be a big call for another club to snaffle him although someone may rookie him.   

Corey Wagner Another player hurt by the absence of the VFL and if you knew 100% that the 2021 rejigged version was going ahead, then I’d keep him on our list just to ensure we are competitive at that level. As with his brother, he’s a hard worker, but sadly just a tad shy of regular AFL level. 

Kade Chandler He definitely looked like he’d improved pre-season, but as I said earlier, there’s no point us stockpiling six midget small forwards when the spot’s been taken by Kossie. Keeping all of Neal-Bullen, Spargo and Bedford is a stretch so unfortunately it’s a no from me. He’s worth a look by Adelaide to see if they should rookie him though.

James Jordon As I said in my mid-season report, he’s still only 19, so he’s too young to delist. And he clearly is working his butt off to make it so he deserves another year on his contract, maybe two if the powers at be feel that way. In terms of trade value, I think we’d be hard pressed to get anything more than a late third rounder or an exchange of late-order picks at this point. 

Kade Kolodjashnij I think all of us are comfortable with taking the punt on him and on paper, he could have been the left-side winger that we needed to compliment Ed Langdon. But after two years of hoping he overcomes concussion issues, I think it’s time to move on with him. He has another year on his contract to go, but hopefully missing out on finals and games bonuses means we have a bit left in this year’s salary cap to pay him out for his final year. 

Aaron Nietschke He looked good in November before his second knee reco and photos of him training at Maroochydore a few weeks ago indicate he’s back and eager to give it all another shot. And we should honour him with another year, although depending on the AFL list configurations, it may have to be as a rookie.

Kyle Dunkley Like other D’lers I am a little unsure where he sits going into next year. Injury mucked him up pre-season but I believe he was working hard to get back in up on the Sunshine Coast, but unlike most others, he never got a shot at it. I’d like to see him get another year because his fundamentals are good and he’s still a kid. If we were to delist him I reckon he’d get another crack on somebody’s rookie list, most likely at the Dogs. 

Austin Bradtke  Another player who is hard to get a gauge on without VFL games. But at 20, I think he deserves another year to develop and if there aren’t any good signs by then, so be it.

[Diamond_Jim 12,628]

A great post.

I don't agree with all your assessments but the way in which you have approached the task is sensible.

 

[FritschyBusiness 1,478]

Well both Wagners and Dunkley have been delisted for now

[DeeSpencer 26,081]

Top 5 pick and more: Petracca, Oliver
Top 10 pick: Jackson
15-20: Rivers, Salem, Pickett, Gawn, May
20-25: Fritsch, Viney, Langdon, Lever, Weideman
30-40: Sparrow, Petty, Brayshaw (with cash), Harmes
40+ pick upgrades: McDonald (with cash), Spargo, Hunt, ANB
No draft value: The rest
 

[dee-tox 4,835]

Guess this post again reinforces how shallow our list is.

All you can do is turn it over!

[adonski 12,429]

17 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

Top 5 pick and more: Petracca, Oliver
Top 10 pick: Jackson
15-20: Rivers, Salem, Pickett, Gawn, May
20-25: Fritsch, Viney, Langdon, Lever, Weideman
30-40: Sparrow, Petty, Brayshaw (with cash), Harmes
40+ pick upgrades: McDonald (with cash), Spargo, Hunt, ANB
No draft value: The rest
 

You overrate draft picks 

[Moonshadow 17,677]

Bird in the hand

[DeeSpencer 26,081]

17 minutes ago, adonski said:

You overrate draft picks 

No, I just don't overrate our list or what other clubs would pay for them.

There's no reason for us to trade most of our best players, the majority of which are contracted anyway so we'd rightfully ask for a lot more to give them up.

There's a couple of guys I might sneak up a little bit but if they played for other clubs that's about what I'd pay for these players.

[adonski 12,429]

7 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

No, I just don't overrate our list or what other clubs would pay for them.

There's no reason for us to trade most of our best players, the majority of which are contracted anyway so we'd rightfully ask for a lot more to give them up.

There's a couple of guys I might sneak up a little bit but if they played for other clubs that's about what I'd pay for these players.

You do, how does Jackson get picked at 3, justify that choice in a handful of games, but drift out to potentially being worth 8 or 9?

[DeeSpencer 26,081]

2 minutes ago, adonski said:

You do, how does Jackson get picked at 3, justify that choice in a handful of games, but drift out to potentially being worth 8 or 9?

He's no chance of getting traded and if you chucked him in this draft group I'd imagine he'd go somewhere between picks 3-7 I just wasn't too fussy with the categories. He's not the same value as Petracca or Oliver and would go somewhere in the top 10 that's all.

Similarly Rivers I'd imagine could go slightly earlier than 15.

I considered bumping up Fritsch, Lever and Viney too but I think teams would be reluctant to straight up trade a first rounder for any of them. You can find inside mids and shaky tall defenders elsewhere for less. 

[mauriesy 7,357]

4 hours ago, Deespicable said:

Jake Lever A few Demonlanders still can’t cop him, but there’s a lot to like about the way he goes about it and at 24, and with his knees sorted (hopefully), his prime years are coming. He’s still got two more years to go on his contract and as with May, it would take an extraordinary offer from a club such as Freo or the Gold Coast for us to play ball.

I know this is just a "value" exercise, but Jake Lever comes from Romsey and wanted to come home from SA. There's no way he'd want to be trooping off to Freo or the Gold Coast.

[Cheesy D. Pun 1,765]

I love what you've done here. There's plenty to discuss but the one I'd highlight is Luke Jackson.

In my view, he could be a generational talent and a possible game changer. I'd want at least two early first rounders for him i.e he's off limits.

I'm still reading through your list, so will probably add more soon.

[Mydee 288]

1 hour ago, FritschyBusiness said:

Well both Wagners and Dunkley have been delisted for now

A plea to our recruiting staff. Please no more classical music composers. We have had a Gilbert two Sullivans, one Strauss and two Wagners and only one of them has been OK

[Fanatique Demon 2,656]

4 hours ago, Deespicable said:

Angus Brayshaw  Another member of our massive ‘96ers club,

Would you please explain the '96ers club? I'm not familiar with that term.

[maximum bob 462]

Agree or disagree, I'm in awe of the research, time and effort that Deespicable put into that post. You won't see that on many other supporter sites trust me. As Diamond Jim said..."great post".

[John Demonic 5,850]

51 minutes ago, Mydee said:

A plea to our recruiting staff. Please no more classical music composers. We have had a Gilbert two Sullivans, one Strauss and two Wagners and only one of them has been OK

Bach offf recruiting staff!

[Sir Why You Little 37,128]

Superb effort Deespicable. 
this is obviously what one can do during a Pandemic Lockdown...

Jackson could be anything. He has the x factor 

May we see the best of it

[Dee-lusional 187]

1 hour ago, Fanatique Demon said:

Would you please explain the '96ers club? I'm not familiar with that term.

D.O.B

[Fanatique Demon 2,656]

20 minutes ago, Dee-lusional said:

D.O.B

Thanks Dee-lusional. I figured that out just after I posted the question and my espresso kicked in. ?

 

3 hours ago, FritschyBusiness said:

Well both Wagners and Dunkley have been delisted for now

I hope that spells the end of references to Wagner's and Wagners'.

[Little Richard 6,265]

Great stuff mate, really appreciate the time and effort you've put into your post.

As for Gawn, I feel like for him it's either a premiership at the mighty Dees or nothing. Loyal as they come.

[Roost it far 8,595]

Haven’t you got anything better to do

[Little Goffy 14,639]

8 hours ago, Roost it far said:

Haven’t you got anything better to do

Most ironic post 2020.

[rjay 25,088]

19 hours ago, Deespicable said:

Max Gawn He turns 29 in December and given the longevity of ruckmen he should have five more years left in him depending on how his knees hold up. He’s our skipper and our brand and he’s in his prime, so it would take a Wayne Carey-style dust-up for him to want to leave, but what if Rhys Stanley has another poor finals series for Geelong, and Danger came knocking at his door with talk about one last Dance. Would two of their lower-end first rounders get the deal done. Not for mine. I’d want a top three pick and even then I’d be grumpy about it.

 

This is Geelong's last dance...it's now or never for Danger and he knows it.

[Kent 2,914]

19 hours ago, John Demonic said:

Bach offf recruiting staff!

Brahms and List off

[Superunknown 4,223]

7 minutes ago, Kent said:

Brahms and List off

This is starting Torelli get out of hand